+2024 SAC S 021-58820297 010-81152687 2024 1 5 2023 2024 2023-2024 25 2024 2024 2024 2024 2025 23-24 2023 2024 WUDWzQqNtQpOsMpMqNrOpObRcM7NpNmMnPqMiNpPnMjMoOxP8OqQvNuOsRtNMYrQrN:2023 2023 2023 12 12-2.78%-11.8%31 21 资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券2023 20231212 2023&20231212 2023%20231212-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%80859095100105110115120上证指数 沪深300 有色金属(申万)-50-40-30-20-100102030黄金铜 铅锌钼 铝 其他金属新材料磁性材料其他小金属白银钨 稀土锂 钴 镍 2023 2.97%29.29%2022 资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券 23 PE-TTM PB-LF012345678020406080100120140160市盈率PE(TTM)市净率PB(LF,内地，右)-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023营业收入同比 归母净利润同比（右）LME TC 2022 2023 2023 2024 资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券 T+D/10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,0002019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-11铜（左）铝 锌2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0002002503003504004505002015-052015-112016-052016-112017-052017-112018-052018-112019-052019-112020-052020-112021-052021-112022-052022-112023-052023-11金价 银价（右）/4244464841041242019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10氧化镨钕 平均价中国:价格:碳酸锂(99.5%电,国产)2023 Q3 资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券/2023Q3 0.00.51.01.52.02.5工业金属 贵金属 金属新材料 能源金属 小金属%）23187-21820 502 2059 19.6 18411-8446 139 837 17.6 18209-3225 137 623 13.2 13758-3127 134 489 11.8 9235-3109 112 482 11.3 8289-2637 110 453 10.0 6304-2276 93 413 9.2 6134-2159 89 412 9.1 5770-1912 80 329 8.9 5659-1667 79 314 8.3 2023 LME TC资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券4,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,0002020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-11SHFE 铜 LME 铜全球 采取 宽松 的 货币 及 财 政政 策；新增矿山项目投产延后，在产矿山产量不及预期；疫情造 成阶段性供需错配新冠疫情爆发，恐慌情绪蔓延，美股数次熔断，铜价格大幅下挫，跌破成本线产。国内稳增长政策预期，美国 通胀 见顶 迹 象显 现，全球持续低库存产。美联储缩减购债Taper 预期升 温；智利、秘鲁矿山因社区及 罢工问题导致停产 产。美联储启动加息，国内需求放缓，悲观情绪笼罩市场产。强美元，风光电领域需求高增长抵消传统需求走弱影响，持续低库存，矿山项目集中释放但产量增长不及预期，多空因素交织/LME 3/资 料来源：S&P Global Market Intelligence，Vales 公 告，BHP 公 告，首 创证券 1 2000 2000 1%2030 0.6%2 2021-22 2012 12 3 4 ESG 2022 Las Bambas 50 2023-24 25 2023-24 25 2023 101.5 2024 102.1 Quellaveco Kamoa Quebrada Blanca TFM KFM Oyu Tolgoi 2023-24 2025资 料来源：各公 司公告，首创 证券/2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E/2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Quellaveco 23 5-5 3 TFM 17.5 14.5 2 2 Oyu Tolgoi 10 11 0 0 Lone Star Expansions 2 2 Kamoa 10 2 15 8 Copper Cliff Complex 1.3Teck QB2 8 21.5 0 0 Buenavista Zinc 1 1 KFM 8 6 OZ Minerals West Musgrave 0 2.1 2 3.7 1.3 12 6.5 Katanga 5+Collahuasi 3.4 Kansanshi S3 4 6 Bor 2.7 New leach technology 3 4USM Udokan 2 7 4.5 El Pilar SX-EW 1.8 1.8 Los Pelambres 2 2 3.5 OZ Minerals Prominent Hill 1.1 Salobo III 2 1 VBME 1 1 Cobre Panama 2 2 San Matias 1 2 Kennecott 2 1 Tia Maria SX-EW 6OZ Minerals Carrapateen 1.3 BHP+Escondida 5 Pilares 1 2.5 5 Mirador 1 0 0 0 Rex Minerals Hillside 4.2 Lonshi 1 3 South Hub Extension 3 Timok 0.9 8 2 Bagdad Expansion 3 PT-FI Mill Recovery(Grasberg)5-4 0 Candelaria 2.5Capstone Mantoverde MVDP 4 2 Caravel Minerals Caravel 2Sandfire Motheo 4 1 Western Casino 2 101.5 102.1 57.5 69.5 资 料来源：SCC 公告，首创证 券 SCC 2023 11 2022 5 2022 89.5 2023 67.72023 11 2032 162 406080100120140160180200Nov-12 May-13 Sep-14 Dec-15 Nov-16Mar-17 Nov-18 May-19 Sep-20 May-21Feb-22 Mar-23 Aug-23 Nov-23 实际产量 Teck QB2 2021 Q4 2023 Q1 San Nicolas Zafranal 2021 9 2026 Q2 2026Q3 2023 7 2027 2027资 料来源：Teck 公告，首创证 券San Nicolas Zafranal 2021 9 Teck 2023 7 QB2 2018 2021Q4 2021 Q4 2022 2019 2021Q42020 2022H2 2020 3 QB2 2021 2022H22022 2023Q1 2023Q1 2023 2023 2023Q1 23 QB2 15-18 8-10 Teck QB2 2021 2021 2021 28 2022 1448 2.7%2023 28 1101 3.3%+35.5 Codelco Antofagasta Teck 2022 3 2021 2024 2023 10 11 22 35 12 2024 91-100 73-79 19.5 Los Bronces Quellaveco 24 资 料来源：各公 司公告，首创 证券 2022 2023 2022 2023Q1-Q3 191.0 9.5%141.4-0.7%166.6 8.4%131.8 6.1%155.3-10.1%103.9-8.5%105.8-11.5%73.6-4.5%89.5-6.7%67.7 3.6%72.7 24.5%60.0 11.7%66.5 2.7%59.6 41.9%64.6-10.4%46.9 4.1%52.1 5.5%45.9 17.7%77.6-5.0%54.7-3.9%KGHM 53.9-4.9%38.7-5.6%43.3 6.4%30.4-4.1%KAZ 38.0 27.1%30.1 7.0%33.3 215.0%30.1 25.2%25.6-12.0%25.6 16.7%25.3-14.7%22.7 21.7%25.0-5.0%21.1 9.5%27.1-5.8%19.3-6.1%20.0 6.0%13.9-10.8%OZ Minerals 12.4-1.1%6.4-27.3%Newcrest 13.7 10.0%9.7-5.3%Boliden 10.9-3.9%6.8-20.6%Hudbay 10.4 4.7%8.6 15.2%3.8 18.3%3.4 27.1%Capstone copper 15.9 87.4%12.0 6.1%Sandfire resources 11.2 60.5%5.9-35.8%27.7 19.1%28.6 40.0%8.5-1.6%2.0-69.0%1448 2.7%1101 3.3%2023-11.6-6.5-2.89-Kennecott-6.5-Sentinel-4.5-1.5Capstone Copper-1.2-34.69 2023 2023 2023 1-11-1.6%2019 2023 1-11 475.41 1.6%-6.5 2023 1-10+14%2017-2019 243-246 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-10 223.7 14%+27.5-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%03006009001,2001,5001,8002,1002,4002,7002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022秘鲁铜矿产量（千吨）同比-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%07001,4002,1002,8003,5004,2004,9005,6006,3002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022智利铜矿产量（千吨）同比资 料来源：智利 铜业委 员会，秘鲁能 矿部，首创证 券1001201401601802002202402601 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12秘鲁铜矿月度产量（千吨）2019 2020 2021 2022 20233504004505005501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12智利铜矿月度产量（千吨）2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 TC 2024 TC 2021 TC 2022 2023 Freeport 2024 Benchmark 80/8.0/2023 8/0.8/2024 资料来源：SMM，首 创 证券 TC 59.56588804050607080901001101202000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024进口铜精矿长单TC（美元/吨）TC Benchmark2030405060708090100-5000500100015002000250030002017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/062023/092023/12冶炼铜单位毛利（元/吨）进口铜精矿现货TC（美元/吨）0102030405060708090100进口铜精矿现货TC（美元/吨）2023 2023 TC TC SMM 2022 1028 3%2023 1-11 1044 10.9%2024 2024-25 资料来源：SMM，首 创 证券/20 2023 10 8 2023 6 Almalyk 14.4 2023-Bor 12 2023H1-PT 7.5 2023 40 2023 15 2023 8 2023 116.9-Manyar 42.5 Gresik 2024-50 2024 Q4 30 2024 12 10 2024 PT Aman 22 2024 Q4Adani 50 2024 3 2024 204.5 50 2025 5 2024 2025 19.2 2026 6 2025-26 74.260657075808590951001051 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 1-11 4458 5.9%1-11 15700.6 10.8%1-11 2693.8 10.8%1-11 9.4%21.2%17.9%8%资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券 2023 1-11 2023 1-11 2023 1-11 2023 1-11-10-50510152,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023汽车销量：万辆 同比：右轴：%-20-1001020304001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023电网投资额：亿元 同比：右轴：%-10-50510152025303502,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023家用空调销量：万台 同比：右轴：%-500501002010-052010-112011-052011-112012-052012-112013-052013-112014-052014-112015-052015-112016-052016-112017-052017-112018-052018-112019-052019-112020-052020-112021-052021-112022-052022-112023-052023-11房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比 房屋新开工面积:累计同比房屋竣工面积:累计同比 商品房销售面积:累计同比 2023 1-11 7713 39.6%3209 60.5%41.6%2020 33.7%26.2%1-11 163.9GW 149.4%2022 77.6GW 17.11%GWEC 2023-2027 115/125/135/150/157GW 2022 1007 56%2023 1-10 1073.2 38.5%1-11 830.4 36.9%30%资 料来源：CPIA，GWEC，EV Sales，首创证 券020406080100120140160180全球风电新增装机量（GW）30.23238.44353731021061151301702300%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%050100150200250201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022全球光伏新增装机量（GW）同比 2023 1-10 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001,0001,2002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023全球新能源汽车销量（万辆）同比 资 料来源：CPIA，GWEC，EV Sales，首创证 券 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 85 115 175 218 270 GW 170 230 350 435 540yoy 35%52%24%24%/GW 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 71 51 80 85 99 GW 94 78 115 125 135 GW 21 9 18 18 26yoy-58.5%105.2%0.0%44.4%/GW 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 GW 72.5 69 97 106 109yoy-5.1%41.0%9.3%2.8%/GW 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 0.54 39 60 82 102 122 644 1007 1360 1700 2040yoy 56%35%25%20%kg 60 60 60 60 60 195 226 337 404 491 31 111 68 87 资 料来源：ICSG，Wind，首创 证券2024 ICSG 2022 2023E 2024E 21,941 22,360 23,195yoy 3.0%1.9%3.7%25,374 26,329 27,534yoy 1.7%3.8%4.6%25,835 26,357 27,066yoy 2.5%2.0%2.7%-461-27 467LME+COMEX+SHFE 2024 2023 TC 2024 12 15 LME+SHFE+COMEX 22.7 01020304050607080901002016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10LME+COMEX+SHFE 资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券 1986 11 LME 9 2 10 LME 3 7%2019-08-01 2020-03-16-1.750 5 5,940 5,285-11.0%6,311 5,285 2007-09-18 2008-12-16-5.000 10 7,535 3,055-59.5%8,850 3,055 2001-01-03 2003-06-25-5.500 13 1,771 1,677-5.3%1,831 1,339 1998-09-29 1998-11-17-0.750 3 1,663 1,590-4.4%1,664 1,581 1995-07-06 1996-01-31-0.750 3 2,957 2,509-15.2%3,057 2,447 1989-06-06 1992-09-04-6.813 24 2,505 2,506 0.0%2,958 2,097 1987-11-04 1988-02-11-0.812 3 1,942 2,222 14.4%2,799 1,933 1987-07-02 1987-07-02-0.125 1 1,598 1,649 3.2%1,649 1,649 1986-07-11 1986-08-21-1.000 2 1,338 1,318-1.5%1,353 1,308 1986-04-21 1986-04-21-0.572 1 1,456 1,450-0.42%1,450 1,450-1135791113150200040006000800010000120001986-081988-081990-081992-081994-081996-081998-082000-082002-082004-082006-082008-082010-082012-082014-082016-082018-082020-082022-08LME 铜价 美国联邦基金利率（右）LME/%LME/资 料来源：各公 司公 告，首创 证券 LME PMI PMI 2024 2-3 1-2 2024-505101520253035010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,0001996-011997-081999-032000-102002-052003-122005-072007-022008-092010-042011-112013-062015-012016-082018-032019-102021-052022-12长江有色1#铜价 中国:工业企业:产成品存货:同比-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0001996-011997-091999-052001-012002-092004-052006-012007-092009-052011-012012-092014-052016-012017-092019-052021-012022-09LME 铜价 美国:全部制造业:存货量:季调:同比LME/ISM PMI/%LME/30354045505560657002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0001996-011997-081999-032000-102002-052003-122005-072007-022008-092010-042011-112013-062015-012016-082018-032019-102021-052022-12LME 铜月均价 美国ISM 制造业PMI（右）资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券%CPI CPI%11 19.9 2023 11 3.7%4 0.3 2022 3 2023 10 5.3%4%11 CPI 3.1%CPI 4%2022 2%012345678-300-100100300500700900新增非农就业人数-初值 新增非农就业人数-终值01234567892021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-11平均时薪同比 美国:职位空缺率:非农:季调-1135792010-052010-112011-052011-112012-052012-112013-052013-112014-052014-112015-052015-112016-052016-112017-052017-112018-052018-112019-052019-112020-052020-112021-052021-112022-052022-112023-052023-11美国:CPI:当月同比 美国:核心CPI:当月同比 2023 12 11 525bp CME 2024 3 资 料来源：Wind，首创 证券%2019-08-01 2020-03-16-1.750 5 1,427.55 1,487.70 4.21%2007-09-18 2008-12-16-5.000 10 719.00 838.25 16.59%2001-01-03 2003-06-25-5.500 13 271.10 348.10 28.40%1998-09-29 1998-11-17-0.750 3 292.25 293.80 0.53%1995-07-06 1996-01-31-0.750 3 384.25 405.55 5.54%1989-06-06 1992-09-04-6.813 24 365.20 342.05-6.34%1987-11-04 1988-02-11-0.812 3 464.25 440.60-5.09%1987-07-02 1987-07-02-0.125 1 445.75 446.25 0.11%1986-07-11 1986-08-21-1.000 2 346.80 380.75 9.79%1986-04-21 1986-04-21-0.572 1 342.75 341.40-0.39%1985-12-18 1986-03-07-0.750 2 321.15 343.35 6.91%1985-04-25 1985-07-11-0.812 3 322.00 313.55-2.62%1984-09-20 1984-12-24-3.375 9 340.00 310.25-8.75%1983-08-17 1983-09-15-0.188 2 420.50 405.25-3.63%1982-10-01 1982-12-14-1.750 4 397.00 449.40 13.20%CME 2023 12 18/01234565007009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,1002,3002007-122008-122009-122010-122011-122012-122013-122014-122015-122016-122017-122018-122019-122020-122021-122022-122023-12伦敦现货黄金价格（美元/盎司）美国联邦基准利率（%，右）2022 2024资 料来源：Wind，世界 黄金协 会，首 创证券/%ISM PMI10 Tips%-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0 8001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002010-122011-122012-122013-122014-122015-122016-122017-122018-122019-122020-122021-122022-122023-12伦敦现货黄金 十年期美债实际收益率（右，逆序）-2-101234562019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-092023-12美国:国债实际收益率:10年期 美国:国债收益率:10 年通胀预期404550556065702010-052010-112011-052011-112012-052012-112013-052013-112014-052014-112015-052015-112016-052016-112017-052017-112018-052018-112019-052019-112020-052020-112021-052021-112022-052022-112023-052023-11美国ISM 制造业PMI 美国ISM 非制造业PMI 2022 2022 1135.69 2023 Q3 337 2022 2023 800 2020-22 4713-4755 3679 2022 4713 资 料来源：S&P Global Market Intelligence，世 界黄 金 协会，首创证 券 T T 2010 2755-109 1671 4317 2044 461 1611 79 4195 1222011 2877 23 1626 4526 2092 429 1744 481 4746-2202012 2957-45 1637 4549 2141 382 1621 569 4714-1652013 3167-28 1195 4334 2735 356 800 629 4520-1862014 3271 105 1130 4505 2544 348 904 601 4398 1072015 3361 13 1067 4441 2479 332 967 580 4358 842016 3515 38 1232 4785 2019 323 1616 395 4353 4322017 3576-26 1112 4663 2258 333 1315 379 4284 3792018 3656-12 1132 4776 2290 335 1164 656 4445 3312019 3596 6 1276 4878 2152 326 1275 605 4358 5202020 3482-39 1293 4736 1324 303 1794 255 3676 10602021 3577-5 1136 4707 2230 330 991 450 4001 7062022 3625-13 1140 4752 2195 309 1113 1082 4699 532023Q1-Q3 1781 46 634 2460 1003 141 532 387 2062 398 2023 2022 2023资 料来源：Wind，世界 黄金协 会，首 创证券1,2001,7002,2002,7003,2003,7004,20010,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,0002020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-11SHFE 铝 LME 铝全球采取宽松的货币及财 政政策；煤炭价格 抬升带 动铝生 产 成本提升；能耗双控及限电政策导致 电解铝 厂数次减产 产。新冠疫情爆发，恐慌情绪蔓延，美股数次熔断，铜铝价格大幅下挫产。俄乌冲突爆发；欧洲能源 价格高企导致海外铝厂减产产。中国煤炭保供稳价，美联储缩减购债Taper升温产。美联储启动加息，出口及国内需求放缓 产。西南地区 电解铝 厂减 产，房地产市场疲软/LME 3/2019 2019+资 料来源：IAI，ALD，首创证 券%23 1-9 7075808590951002010-112011-062012-012012-082013-032013-102014-052014-122015-072016-022016-092017-042017-112018-062019-012019-082020-032020-102021-052021-122022-072023-022023-09氧化铝 电解铝-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023全球产量 中国产量 全球同比 中国同比 2017 2017 SMM 2023 11 4519 4289 92.7%95%资 料来源：IAI，ALD，首创证 券70758085909505001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023建成产能 在产产能 产能利用率（%，右）2023-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022全球 中国 海外 2502702903103303503701 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2022 2022 41.6 291.3 2022 2023 1-10 225.8 2022 19.9 2025 2022 607.4 2010 335 2023 25 2024 25 Balco 2024 Q4 2025 资 料来源：IAI，首 创证券 2,1002,1502,2002,2502,3002,3502,4002,4502,5001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E Balco-Korba 41.4Kaltara-50Bintan-25Tsingshan-25 25 Dak Nong 15 30 25 81.4 50 55 25 11502025 1150 2025 1150 2022 865 2025 2023-25 95 资 料来源：中国 有色金 属工业 协会，iFind，首 创证 券 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%02004006008001,0001,200中国再生铝产量 同比-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,000广东ADC-12铝合金精废价差 AD