自上而下推动并购重组，行业格局有望重 塑2024年证券行业策略报告 S0210523090002|强 于 大市（维持评 级）2024 1 3 GDP 1-2-Evercore+1-1+12-2 3M-6M 5 3-6 5D/3M/6M 57.1%/42.9%/42.9%6.1%/4.2%/12.3%2023 2023H 2245 9.0%43 23 1-3Q 3819 1.9%1100 6.5%/1 2 IPO 3 4 5 2024 2024 4470 7.0%1565.1 8.6%1+2.0%1271 2-8.9%567 3+23.0%1346 4+9.5%240 5+2.7%527 300059.SZ 300033.SZ 300803.SZ 601878.SH 601901.SH 601456.SH 2XVBYwPmRpMoPoQoNrMoRrQ6McMbRsQmMnPqMlOnNpOeRnMmM8OnMoQwMmMoPMYnNtP 一、24年发展趋势：自上而下 推动并购重组，行业格局有望重 塑 二、23年行业整体业绩回顾：营收及净利小幅回升，自营业务表现亮眼 三、盈利预测 四、投资建议 五、风险提示目录31 2024+GDP-Evercore 3M-6M-1+12-41.1 10 30 31 2023 11 3 5 2019 11 29 2023 10 30-31 2023 11 3 1 2 23 8 1.1 6 2022 9 14 2023 10 24 270 2022 12 31 2023 10 31 280 2023 3 2 2023 6 10 50 70 50 2023 3 8 2023 5 31 50 2023 4 29 2023 6 21 50 2023 7 1 2023 9 23 60 A 1.1+7 2022 A AA 0.4 A 0.6 A 0.8 B 0.9 C 1 D 2 A AA A AA()0.7 A 0.9 1 5342110503913150%40%10%0%49%38%13%1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0102030405060A B C D 2023 2021 2023 2021 1.2 2023 Q1-Q3 2508.3 ROE 5.6%2023 Q1-Q3 458.1 ROE 6.4%8 Choice Choice 02000400060008000100002018/1/1 2019/1/1 2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 1.2 GDP 2022 3950.0 GDP 1.2%3510.0 6 GDP 1.4%GDP 9 FINRA Choice 0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%1.60%1.80%2.00%0500010000150002000025000300002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023.6 GDP%GDP%1.3 3 1 2 3 1 2 Evercore 2022 Broker&Dealer 2008 4896 3378 10 SIFMA 40%50%60%70%80%90%100%CR10 CR20 Choice-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%0100020003000400050006000200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022%1.3-2020 2 130 E-trade E-Trade 2023H 2020 39.5%47.6%11 Choice 38%40%42%44%46%48%50%01002003004005006007002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%1995 ShareLink 2000 CyBerCorp ChicagoInvestment Analytics U.S.Trust Corporation 2003 SoundView 2007 The 401(k)Company 2010 Windward Investment Management ETF 2011 OptionXpress Compliance 11 Inc Thomas Partners Inc 2020 TD Ameritrade 1.3-2000 CyBerCorp 2020 TD Ameritrade CyBerCorp Chicago Investment 401k Hampton Company 12-50%0%50%100%150%200%05010015020025020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q3%1.3-2010 Windward Investment Management 2011 8.6 90.3%2020 TD Ameritrade 2021 58.6 77.5%2020 TD Ameritrade 2021 22.4%10.3pct 13 Choice-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Choice 1.3-Evercore Evercore 80%Evercore TMT Evercore 14 Evercore 80%Choice 88.46%87.12%89.68%92.69%93.64%92.42%83.72%81.50%76.81%83.22%86.11%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Evercore 2006 8 Protego 2006 12 BraveheartBraveheart 2009 5 Special Fiduciary Services%SFS 2010 9 G5 50 2011 6 Lexicon 2014 10 ISI 2015 5 Kuna Co.KG 2017 1 Luminis Partners 19%1.4 15 2013 2015 2018 2021 10 2.87%10 3.22%10 3.90%8 4.00%-4 5.05%16 1.54%11 2.30%12 2.38%17 1.69%7 3.24%3 5.17%-4.41%-5.52%-6.28%-5.69%-3.24%-10.22%5 4.73%10 3.87%11 4.25%8 3.74%12 2.54%10 3.71%24 0.98%23 1.05%39 0.62%38 0.72%8 3.09%24 1.49%18 1.44%17 1.47%16 1.48%15 2.17%34 0.95%36 0.64%-2.42%-2.52%-2.10%-2.89%-4.04%-2.13%9 4.35%8 4.02%7 4.86%9 3.61%3 6.00%7 4.52%1 8.12%1 13.98%1 12.80%2 7.08%2 8.12%5 3.62%35 0.69%31 0.97%90-0.39%56 0.38%35 0.58%-8.81%-14.95%-12.41%-7.46%-8.70%-3.62%1 9.27%1 8.40%1 10.41%1 7.16%1 9.97%2 10.87%1.4 16 1=-2 T-1M T+6M T+5M T+12M T+24M 3 2020 A 4 T T 2023 3 15 2023 12 15 Choice T-1M T+1D T+5D T+1M T+3M T+6M T+12M T+24M2003 1.77%2.68%5.65%2.84%4.36%12.65%7.17%-3.47%2006-0.44%0.41%0.51%-1.31%0.29%3.71%-4.49%-151.10%2013-1.89%-0.62%0.46%-0.73%5.91%4.33%11.29%-13.77%2014-1.78%0.39%-1.50%-3.52%-8.51%-26.89%-45.98%-34.81%2015 0.02%5.01%38.69%40.30%48.22%130.21%-16.86%-35.68%2016 2.43%-2.36%-5.39%-4.30%0.77%12.09%52.16%59.92%2019 1.47%5.95%9.21%14.47%14.80%20.61%26.53%33.10%2019 24.33%0.49%7.03%-5.77%-12.64%-36.36%-39.82%-66.19%2020 18.78%-4.56%2020 8.44%4.23%2022-2.04%-1.17%2022 10.08%-3.05%2023-0.73%-2.44%0.31%-4.97%-15.75%-9.70%2023 6.30%8.26%6.38%64.29%57.14%57.14%21.43%42.86%42.86%28.57%14.29%4.77%0.94%6.13%4.11%4.16%12.30%-1.25%-26.50%1.4 17-1+12 1 20135.7%2023H 4.5%2 ROE 2013 3.7%2023H 0.8%-/24/23/23 2015 12/14/11 2017 1 38 2015 13 2017 2 2016 1.6%2017 4.2%-8.1%9.1%1 35.5 115.6 225.3%2 21 59 3 2019 2.9 2020 7.8 163.8%-24.6%3M-6M 5 3-6 5D/3M/6M 57.1%/42.9%/42.9%6.1%/4.2%/12.3%-6M 1+12-3M 12M/24M 52.2%/59.9%-1.4-1+12 2013 10 30 2015 1 2013 8 3 7 2015 4.1%4.1%2013+5.5%6.3%1+12 18 2013 2015 Choice+%10 2.87%16 1.54%4.42%7 4.31%10 2.38%14 1.93%4.31%8 3.23%10 2.38%12 1.99%4.37%10 2.64%10 3.22%11 2.30%5.52%7 4.06%10 3.90%12 2.38%6.28%7 4.10%8 4.00%17 1.69%5.69%4 5.10%-7 3.24%3.24%9 2.72%21 1.21%16 1.75%2.96%7 0.00%4 5.05%3 5.17%10.22%1 7.12%1.4-1 2 3 19 Choice 3.68 4.51 11.31 1.87 2.15 3.45 1.25 1.61 2.12-1.29 0.81-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00 ROE%ROE Choice 5.69%5.42%5.83%5.60%5.55%5.23%4.82%4.88%4.89%4.61%4.51%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%1.4-2016 11 167 2017 3 8 2015 15 38/24/23/29 2015 12/14/15 2017 20 2015 2021+%24 0.98%18 1.44%2.42%9 4.33%23 1.10%26 0.94%2.03%11 2.73%29 0.88%23 1.12%2.00%11 3.26%23 1.05%17 1.47%2.52%8 3.97%39 0.62%16 1.48%2.10%7 5.64%38 0.72%15 2.17%2.89%10 3.94%8 3.09%34 0.95%4.04%3 6.36%24 1.49%36 0.64%2.14%7 3.84%1.4-2018/0.2%/12.3%/87.6%44.4 2016 1.6%2017 4.2%103.1%21 Choice 300-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%050001000015000200002500030000350002019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%1.24%0.92%1.44%3.39%4.20%3.78%3.97%4.51%4.63%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%355,323800,5671,155,8900200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,000 1.4-2019 1 35.5 80.1 2 38 21 59 22=+单位：个17432649100102030405060 2.55%3.08%5.38%4.89%4.93%3.51%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%0501001502002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%1.4-1 2020 2020 163.8%2019 3.1%5.4%2 2018 12 24 16.0/2019 1 10 16.8/4.9%6.0%2019 1 10-2021 2 9 23 2022 2023 Choice Choice-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2017-01-04 2018-01-04 2019-01-04 2020-01-04 2021-01-04 300 30026.7616.011.4-2023 12 8 19.2%13.3%2023 6 30 56 5 3 14 24.6%24 1 13.33%2 9.59%3 7.69%4 5.95%5 5.28%16 5.13%7 5.13%8 4.72%29 3.77%310 3.31%411 2.06%518.0%24.6%71.9%4.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%020406080100120%1.4-20%2023 6 9849.3 25%,2023 12 8 10.41 12 11 10.0%11.45 300 0.6%25 Choice-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%300 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%1.5 1 2 3 26%23H 601881.SH 49.15 1,135.52601995.SH 40.11 782.99000166.SZ 26.34 1,128.99 601211.SH 21.35 1,433.14600837.SH 6.60 1,498.71600958.SH 26.63 705.32 601688.SH 15.14 1,450.41601456.SH 19.21 174.61601990.SH 25.01 165.09601555.SH 24.14 382.24 000728.SZ 21.70 309.27600909.SH 24.09 193.12 600030.SH 15.52 2,131.35601066.SH 35.77 900.58601136.SH 56.77 117.90002797.SZ 11.06 143.40 Choice 一、24年发展趋势：自上而下推动券商并购重组，行业格局有望重塑 二、23年行业整体业绩回顾：营收及净利小幅回升，自营业务表现亮 眼 三、盈利预测 四、投资建议 五、风险提示目录272.1 23 2023H 2245.1 9.0%43 23 1-3Q 3819.2 1.87%1099.7 6.5%28 43 Choice 43 Choice-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%010002000300040005000600070002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%050010001500200025002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3%2.1 2023/23.3%/33.3%/12.6%/4.9%/12.5%/13.4%2022-5.3pct/+17.9pct/-4.1pct/-2.0pct/-3.5pct/-3.0pct 29 38.9%47.7%40.3%46.8%32.1%26.4%23.4%21.8%25.9%26.6%32.6%23.3%22.4%19.2%27.3%24.6%17.3%27.7%30.1%33.9%28.2%27.4%15.4%33.3%16.4%10.9%11.9%9.2%20.9%16.4%13.9%13.4%15.0%13.9%16.7%12.6%2.1%4.4%4.8%4.8%9.0%10.0%10.3%7.6%6.7%6.3%6.9%4.9%4.1%11.6%17.1%10.3%11.6%11.2%8.1%12.9%12.8%12.8%16.0%12.5%16.1%6.2%-1.4%4.3%9.0%8.5%14.2%10.4%11.5%13.0%12.5%13.4%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H 2.1/2023 11.7 2.9 2.1 4.0%6.7%3.4%2023 ROE 5.25%0.4pct 30 5.79 6.146.267.268.9010.5911.0611.65-9.7%6.0%1.9%16.0%22.6%19.0%4.5%4.0%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%024681012142016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%1.641.851.892.022.312.572.792.8613.2%12.5%2.2%6.9%14.4%11.3%8.5%6.7%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%2.2 2023 523.0 24.7 2023 43 768.8-12.5%31 43-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%050010001500200025003000(%,)-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600%Wind 2.2 2023 1-10 1,993,830 2.5%10,019 3.0%2023 0.0224%0.0010pct 32 Wind Choice 2023 3.02%=/Wind Choice-48.72%-11.73%-17.64%35.30%62.02%25.33%-9.99%-3.02%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000 YOY(%,)0.0000%0.0100%0.0200%0.0300%0.0400%0.0500%0.0600%0.0700%0.0800%0.0900%2.2+23Q3 26.1%/47.6%/26.1%/25.0%/1.4%-6.15%/+5.56%/-0.02%/+0.61%2023Q3 13847+18.3%ETF 33 61.12%59.40%59.12%58.60%54.95%54.81%53.79%51.07%50.74%49.54%47.59%16.12%17.13%15.31%14.54%19.24%19.56%20.43%22.24%22.18%23.49%26.06%22.54%23.20%25.13%26.36%25.19%24.96%25.04%25.65%25.97%25.68%25.00%0.23%0.27%0.44%0.50%0.62%0.66%0.74%1.04%1.11%1.29%1.35%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 29.3%17.2%23.9%33.2%13.4%6.1%18.3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020004000600080001000012000140001600021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3%2.3 IPO IPO 2023 282.4 5.6%255.4 27.1 4.6%13.8%2023 43 352.4-18.3%34 43 Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0100200300400500600700800%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3%2.3 IPO IPO IPO 2023 1-11 IPO 292 3415.4-37.0%IPO 11.7 2022 20.7%2023 1-11 7303.6-23.8%35-60%-30%0%30%60%90%120%150%050001000015000200002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023IPO IPO%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%020040060080010002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023IPO IPO%Wind IPO IPO Wind 2.3 IPO 2023 1-11 10718.9-28.6%IPO 2023 1-11 12.7+25.5%36 Wind Wind-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%05000100001500020000250002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023.11%-20%0%20%40%60%80%024681012142016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023.11%2.3 IPO 2023 4 IPO 37/7 24 8 18:8 27 IPO 10 30 31 11 1 2.4 2023 748.2 74.1%2023 43 1028.1 69.8%23 38 43 Wind-100%-50%0%50%100%150%02004006008001000120014001600%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3%2.4 2022 20868.2+3.5%2023 7 23059.4 0.1%2022+10.5%23 7 8428.2 14.8%23 39-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05000100001500020000250002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023.7(%,)Wind Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020004000600080001000012000%2.4 2023/255.3%11.9pct/19.1%0.5pct 2023H 4033.9 7.3%43514.1 9.5%40 Wind Choice 300035004000450050005500215220225230235240 3000501001502002503002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H/%/%2.5 23 2023 280.9 5.3%2023 43 342.5 21.9%41 43 Wind-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%01002003004005006007002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%01002003004005006007002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3%2.5 8 27 100%80%10 14 42/8 27 100%80%9 8 10 14 50%80%10 30 100%10 30 10 14 10 16 10 16 5 20%50%10 162.5 2023 11 14450.6 15925.2 907.0 794.5 2023 11 2.6%0.3pct 432.0%2.1%2.2%2.3%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.7%14,50015,00015,50016,00016,50017,00023-01 23-02 23-03 23-04 23-05 23-06 23-07 23-08 23-09 23-10 23-11/Wind Wind 7007508008509009501,00013,50014,00014,50015,00015,50016,00016,50023-0123-0223-0323-0423-0523-0623-0723-0823-0923-1023-11 2.6 2023 109.6 17.7%2023 9.2 16.7%2023 43 347.3 1.4%44 43 Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%050100150200250300350%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01002003004005006002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3%2.6 2023H 68.1 0.6%20.1 12.0%6.3 18.6%2.7 24.5%3.0 16.5%2023 2015 13.1%43.4%45 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000002019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q2%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0500001000001500002000002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H%2.6 2023 11 3 11 46 1 2014 8 2 2015 8 3 2015 8 4 2013 8 5 2014 3 6 2014 8 7 2016 1 8 2015 12 9 2016 2 10 2016 7 11 2017 7 12 2020 12 13 2023 7 14 2023 11 2023-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0100020003000400050006000%一、24年发展趋势：自上而下推动券商并购重组，行业格局有望重塑 二、23年行业整体业绩回顾：营收及净利小幅回升，自营业务表现亮眼 三、盈利预测 四、投资建议 五、风险提示目录47 2024 4470 7.0%1565 8.6%7.0%+2.0%1271 IPO-8.7%-10.4%-8.9%567 23+23.0%1345+5.0%+9.5%240 4.3%-5.0%+2.7%527 3 48 2022A 2023E 2024E 2023E YoY 2024E YoY 1270.73 1246.34 1270.97-1.92%1.98%10234.34 10006.12 10703.44-2.23%6.97%659.08 622.82 567.37-5.50%-8.90%584.19 558.24 509.48-4.44%-8.74%74.89 64.58 57.89-13.77%-10.35%IPO 5868.28 4401.21 3741.03-25.00%-15.00%93953.21 102466.14 111750.41 9.06%9.06%608.39 1093.93 1345.83 79.81%23.03%40131.23 48103.75 56362.28 19.87%17.17%270.97 219.38 240.13-19.04%9.46%97600.00 81348.13 85415.54-16.65%5.00%633.21 513.77 527.37-18.86%2.65%15404.09 15219.81 16559.61-1.20%4.25%2326.68 2210.34 2099.83-5.00%-5.00%507.35 480.95 518.60-5.20%7.83%3949.73 4177.20 4470.26 5.76%7.02%1423.01 1440.93 1565.06 1.26%8.61%2024 Choice Wind 一、24年发展趋势：自上而下推动券商并购重组，行业格局有望重塑 二、23年行业整体业绩回顾：营收及净利小幅回升，自营业务表现亮眼 三、盈利预测 四、投资建议 五、风险提示目录49 2024 300059.SZ 300033.SZ 300803.SZ 601878.SH 601901.SH 601456.SH50 一、24年发展趋势：自上而下推动券商并购重组，行业格局有望重塑 二、23年行业整体业绩回顾：营收及净利小幅回升，自营业务表现亮眼 三、盈利预测 四、投资建议 五、风险提示目录51 52 53 612 A 300 500 6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6-20%-10%6-20%6 5%6-5%5%6-5%54 1436 MT 20 200120