20240101_国盛证券_2024年饰品行业年度策略：2023年珠宝销售亮眼长期聚焦龙头市占率提升_20页.pdf
|2024 01 01 2023 2024+2023+2023 2023 1-11 11.9%7.2%2023 20.5%35%2023 2024 2024 2024/2024+2022 57%1 2023 6/5631/4735/1513 9 7599 2023H1 91.33%18%2 40%FY2024PE 16 2024 PE 13/10/12 S0680520070003 S0680523080004 S0680122060018 1 2023 2023-09-04 2 2023H2 2023-06-21 3&2022-12-13 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 01929.HK 0.67 0.54 0.71 0.84 17.3 21.6 16.4 13.8 600612.SH 3.25 4.47 5.18 5.96 21.2 15.4 13.3 11.6 002867.SZ 1.00 1.22 1.48 1.76 15.3 12.4 10.2 8.6 002345.SZ 0.22 0.45 0.56 0.68 30.4 15.1 12.1 10.0 Wind EPS 2023 12 29-32%-16%0%16%32%2022-06 2022-10 2023-02 2023-06 3002024 01 01 P.2 1.2023.4 1.1+2023.4 1.2.6 2.2024.8 3.9 3.1+.9 3.2.11 4.15 5.19 1%.4 2 2021%.4 3%.4 4 Au9999/.4 5%.5 6%.5 7%.5 8%.5 9%.6 10%.6 11 2022.6 12 2023%.7 13 2010-2022%.8 14 2010-2022%.8 15%.8 16 2010-2020.9 17 2020Q1 2023Q3%.9 18 2021%.10 19 2022%.10 20.11 21.11 22%.12 23%.12 24&.12 25.13 26%.13 27%.14 28.14 29.14 30.14 31.14 32%.14 1ZBYxOnQpMmNqOtQqNsNrQaQ9R9PmOqQmOmQiNmMrQkPrRmO9PqQxPxNsOoQMYpPmQ2024 01 01 P.3 33%.15 34%.16 35%.17 36%.18 2024 01 01 P.4 1.2023 1.1+2023+2023 2023 1-11 11.9%7.2%1%2 2021%Wind Wind 1 2022 2023 2023 2023H1 15%6%2 2023 2023 2023 12 28 Au9999 482.2/17%3%4 Au9999/Wind Wind-40-200204060801001202021-02 2021-07 2021-12 2022-06 2022-11 2023-05 2023-10:0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2023-02 2023-04 2023-06 2023-08 2023-10 2021%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%050100150200250Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q32019 2020 2021 2022 2023 YOY3803904004104204304404504602023-01-03 2023-03-03 2023-05-03:Au99992024 01 01 P.5/1 2023 20.5%1339.6 27.4%/21.1%/12.9%5%6%Wind Wind 2 2023 0.5pcts 8.9%/0.4pcts 3.6%2023 34.8%47.7 7%8%Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%020040060080010001200140016002021Q13 2022Q13 2023Q13 YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006002021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3 YOY0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2021Q13 2022Q13 2023Q13 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3 2024 01 01 P.6 9%10%Wind Wind 1.2 2023 1 2023H1+2023 2023H1 15%6 9%17.5%8.2%6/23%/50%/55%/37%1.4%PE NTM 15-16 2 2023H2 6%1-11 11.9%7.2%12 29/5.5%/29%/58%/55%12 PE NTM 12-13 11 2022 Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01020304050602021Q13 2022Q13 2023Q13 YOY-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%024681012141618202021Q1 2021Q3 2022Q1 2022Q3 2023Q1 2023Q3 YOY10111213141516172022/1/7 2022/4/7 2022/7/7 2022/10/7 2023/1/7 2023/4/7 2023/7/7 2023/10/7NTM AVG 1std-1std2024 01 01 P.7 12 2023%Wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2023/1/6 2023/2/17 2023/3/24 2023/4/28 2023/6/2 2023/7/7 2023/8/11 2023/9/15 2023/10/27 2023/12/1 300 2023 1 2 1 2 2024 01 01 P.8 2.2024 2024 13 2010-2022%14 2010-2022%Wind Wind+1 2024 2 2024 2024 2023 15%2023E 2024E 23PE 24PE YOY YOY YOY YOY 946.8-4.3%53.8-19.8%1090.2 15.1%70.8 31.6%1,160.6 21.6 16.4 739.8 17.4%23.4 37.5%844.0 14.1%27.1 15.8%361.0 15.4 13.3 155.3 39.7%13.4 22.9%189.2 21.8%16.2 21.2%166.4 12.4 10.2 58.1 31.4%4.0 102.1%70.3 21.1%5.0 24.4%60.5 15.1 12.1 164.4 49.6%7.4 61.5%191.4 16.5%8.5 14.6%115.8 15.6 13.6 Wind 2023 12 29-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001000150020002500300035002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 YOY-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006007008002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 YOY2024 01 01 P.9 3.3.1+2023 2022 2010 2020/29/28 2010 26/24 16 2010-2020 Wind 17 2020Q1 2023Q3%Wind 2020 4.8 2223242526272829302010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020:-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%01002003004005006007008009002020-03 2020-09 2021-03 2021-09 2022-03 2022-09 2023-03 2023-09 YOY2024 01 01 P.10 2022 2021 54%18 2021%2022 2022 7190 4100 57%21%11%19 2022%54%46%2024 01 01 P.11 3.2 3.2.1+2021 8.1 2021/2021 7%/11%/18%/8%2022-2023 2022 2016 34%37.7%20 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023 6 3375 4011 4189 4502 4616 4735 3521 3893 4450 4945 5609 5631 2182 2931 3160 3721 3642-907 971 995 1076 1158 1513 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024H1 2023 9 1828 2062 2284 2719 2,938 3068 2933 3563 4384 5771 7404 7599 21 2023H1 22%/21%2024 01 01 P.12 22%23%1 2 24&0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2024 01 01 P.13 25 2023 9 670 FY2024H1 34.5%2022 59 48.5%2023H1 1700 2023H1 51%2023H1 331.5 2022 14.5+2023 91.33%2023H1 18%3.2.2 IP 26%80.1%83.37%6.51%2.15%51.93%37.40%36.4%51.9%8.5%2%98.04%K 1.03%80.1%K 14.7%/2023H1/2022 FY2024H1 40%2024 01 01 P.14 27%28 29 30 IP 31 32%Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024H1 0510152025020004000600080001000012000140003D 5G 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 01 01 P.15 4.Q4 FY2024PE 16 2024 PE 13/10/12 Q3 Q3 2023Q3 9.7%217.2 0.8pcts 7.5%0.8pcts 3.2%48.5%6.9 15.9%44.9%2023Q4 2023 350 Q4 2023-2025 23.38/27.08/31.16 24 PE 13 33%2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()58,691 63,010 73,976 84,395 95,521 YoY(%)13.5 7.4 17.4 14.1 13.2()1,876 1,700 2,338 2,708 3,116 YoY(%)18.3-9.4 37.5 15.8 15.1 EPS()3.59 3.25 4.47 5.18 5.96(%)22.5 18.9 21.5 20.8 20.0 P/E()19.2 21.2 15.4 13.3 11.6 P/B()3.9 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.2 Wind 2023 12 29 2024 01 01 P.16 2023Q3 15%12%2023 Q3 15%44.2/38%/40%/11%2.9%3.6 12.4%3.5 39.8%124.9 17.7%11 Q4 Q4 40%1 2 2023-2025 13.4/16.24/19.23 2024 PE 10 34%2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()9,155 11,118 15,533 18,916 21,953 YoY(%)80.1 21.4 39.7 21.8 16.1()1,225 1,091 1,340 1,624 1,923 YoY(%)20.9-10.9 22.9 21.2 18.4 EPS()1.12 1.00 1.22 1.48 1.75(%)21.1 18.0 19.9 21.1 21.4 P/E()13.6 15.3 12.4 10.2 8.6 P/B()2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 Wind 2023 12 29 2024 01 01 P.17 Q3 23%Q4 2023Q3+23.7%14.9-2.2pcts 26.5%7%+23.4%1 33%45 33%3.1 Q4 11 50%+12 11 30%+Q3 2023 200-250 2025 2500 2023 2019 2023-2025 4/5/6 2024 PE 12 35%2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()4,636 4,417 5,805 7,031 8,330 YoY(%)44.2-4.7 31.4 21.1 18.5()351 199 402 500 604 YoY(%)151.0-43.2 102.1 24.4 20.8 EPS()0.39 0.22 0.45 0.56 0.68(%)10.0 5.7 10.7 12.2 13.3 P/E()17.3 30.4 15.1 12.1 10.0 P/B()1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 Wind 2023 12 29 2024 01 01 P.18 FY2024Q2 7-9 RSV 5.8%2023 7-9 RSV 5.8%RSV 0.6%RSV 54.1%1 7-9 RSV 0.6%RSV 4.9%K RSV 17.9%2 RSV 54.1%2023 4-2024 3 15%32%+1 7500 2 FY2024-2026 70.84/84.31/97.99 FY2024 PE 16 36%2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E()98,938 94,684 109,019 126,370 142,500 YoY(%)41.0-4.3 15.1 15.9 12.8()6,712 5,384 7,084 8,431 9,799 YoY(%)11.4-19.8 31.6 19.0 16.2 EPS()0.67 0.54 0.71 0.84 0.98(%)19.9 16.5 17.8 17.5 16.9 P/E()17.3 21.6 16.4 13.8 11.9 P/B()3.4 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.0 Wind 2023 12 29 2024 01 01 P.19 5.2024 01 01 P.20“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
