20231228_银河证券_社会服务行业深度报告：如何看待中国教培市场未来供需走向？_28页.pdf
Table_Header 2023 12 28 Table_Title Table_Summary 1 2 2000 2018/2034 CIEFR 1.9/+K9+-S EPS PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E 9901.HK-S 0.10 0.23 0.32 36 32 23 000526.SZ 0.09 1.15 1.64 193 42 30 300192.SZ 0.23 0.39 0.51 32 25 19 Wind 2022-2024 2023-2025 Wind Table_IndustryName Table_InvestRank()Table_Authors 021-2025 2670 guximin_ S0130522070001 Table_IndustryData 2023-12-27 Table_Chart Table_Research-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%300 2 Table_ReportTypeIndex.3.3.6.11.11.12+.17.21-S.21.23+.25.25 YWEVuNnQpMrQqOtQrMrOmN8OdN8OnPqQsQsOiNoOnMkPpPmO7NoOuMwMmQnQvPpPvM 3 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1960 0.9%1 1981-2020 19 1872-1907 1908 4.7%0.9%20 50-70 1955 20 70 1 2 1868 1100 1981 18683 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,0001603-1788 1789-1868 1981 1986 1991 2009 2014 2017 2020 4 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2 1950-1970 3 1950-1970 20 80-90 1977 1 2 3 1 20 80 1977-1978 1980 6135 5785 3535 3159 1980 1981 1982 1977:1;2;3 1987 1960-1970 1976-1993 1993 60%1980-1990 2.8%3.8%1986 CPI 2000 50%+1988 70 60%80 1%+1981 18683 1986 34367 1991 45856 0%10%20%30%40%50%1960 1965 1970 1975 050100150200250195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979 5 Table_ReportTypeIndex 4 5 1970-1990 K12 5-17 6 7 CPI 1986=100 ALTRUISM,LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINT,AND INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION 21 1999 2002 2006-2018 2009 49682 2014 49319 2017 47570 0%20%40%60%80%1977 1985 1993 2008 2017 04008001,2001,6002,0002,4002,8001970 1975 1980 1985 19905-13 14-17 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5070901101301501701902102302501986198919921995199820012004200720102013201620192022 6 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2 2006 2006 2008 2011 2013 2015 2016 3 2018 2018 8 2000-2020 K12 9 2013-2021 OECD-1960-1970 1980 2000 04008001,2001,6002,0002000 2005 2010 2015 20205-13 14-17 0501001502013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 7 Table_ReportTypeIndex 10 Private Tutoring and Demand for Educationin South Korea Private Tutoring and its Impacton Students Academic Achievement,Formal Schooling,and Educational Inequality in Korea The Borgen Project 11-20 60+1953 12 1950-1960 13 20 50 3811404365810020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,0001980 2000 2008 20173.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%0204060801001950 1954 1959 10 8 Table_ReportTypeIndex 20 60-80 1968 1971 39.8%1980 75.9%1973 14 1971-1980 15 1971-1980 20 80-20 1980 7.30 1 2 3 3 1980 7.30 1 2 3 1985 1995 5 31 1;2 1997 1 2 3 EDUNET 0%20%40%60%80%0%5%10%15%9 Table_ReportTypeIndex 7.30 7.30 1988 1995 5 31 20 80-20 1980 381 2000 14043 16 1985-2006 17 1985-2006 GDP The determinants of private tutoring participation and attendant expenditures in Korea The determinants of private tutoring participation and attendant expenditures in Korea 21 2000 7 30 2000 4 2000 2000 1 2 3 4 2005 19 2009 1 2 3 4 5 2014 1 2 3 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0001985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 0%1%2%3%4%5%1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 GDP 10 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2016 1;2 2000 2007-2017 77%51%2017-2019 2007 37%45%2017 10 18 2016-2022 19 2007-2023 KOSIS KOSIS 20 2007-2022 21 2022 KOSIS KOSIS 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 60%64%68%72%76%80%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%10%20%30%40%11 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2023 985 1.75%985 15.2%211 3.9/8pct 985 K-12 22 985 23 2021 K12 6000 2015-2019 K12 3775 2019 6591 CAGR13%2021 40%2017 GDP 243%/24 K12 25 K12 1.90%1.70%1.62%1.75%0%1%2%3%2020 2021 2022 2023985 15.20%11.30%7.20%0%5%10%15%20%985 211 02004006008001,0001,200 0200400600800 12 Table_ReportTypeIndex 26 GDP 2017-2018-20 90 20 70 1977 2000-2018 5 1951-2018 1951 1 2 1955 1960 8 1983 1988 1993 0%100%200%300%400%500%13 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1994 1 2 2000 1 2 3 2007 1 2 2013 2015 2018 2018 2018 6 2018 2018 1 2 3 3 4 5 2019 K12 1 2018 4 2021 14 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2 K12/K9 K9 2022 12 2024 7/2019.7 1 2019 10 31 2 2020 6 2021.7 1 2 3 4 2021.7 1 2 2021.8 2021 2021.9 1 2 2021.9 2021 2021.11 K12 K9 K9 15 Table_ReportTypeIndex 8/2021.11-2022.1 30 2/3 3 3 5 1 3 2 3 50%2022.9-11()30 200 80%3 3 5 1 2 50%50%2022.12 10 1 200 3 2 3 5 1 2 2 3 2023.3-4 1 50 2 3 1 300 3;2 100 8 5 50%2%3 2023.6 50 3 2022 10 28 K9 12.4 4932 96%263 34 87.1%2022 12 1 2023 6 16 Table_ReportTypeIndex 2 2024 6 27 K9 28 K9 2023 10 15 9 3 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.3 K9 1 FY24 15%-20%2 FY24 30%12400049320300006000090000120000150000 2022 10 K9 26334050100150200250300 2022 10 K9 17 Table_ReportTypeIndex 29 2016-2021 CAGR16%30 2016-2021 CAGR25%+2006-2016 2024-2034 31 2006-2016 32 2018-2023 CIEFR 2018-2019 70%65.7%87.6%1.9 32%VS 65.7%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500100015002000-30%0%30%60%90%120%150%020040060080010001200 1,584 1,883 05001000150020002500 1051102110701193 119412910500100015002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 Table_ReportTypeIndex 33 2011-2020 34 2017-2019 CIEFR 2023 K9 2023+FY1Q24+FY2Q24 35 36 2001 2004 2833 4623 cagr2.8%1 2,Kumon 2019 419 157 262 2005 1%2022 0.69%2006 236 2022 259 0%2%4%6%8%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0%10%20%30%40%2017 2019 0%40%80%120%160%200%0306090120150FY1H22 FY2H22 FY1H23 FY2H23 FY1Q24 0%50%100%150%200%250%04080120160200FY1H22 FY2H22 FY1H23 FY2H23 FY1H24 19 Table_ReportTypeIndex 37 2001-2022 38 2004-2022 1 K9 STEAM CIEFR K9 2018-2019/22.3%/9.6%/5.8%2019 5285 2024-2027 6-15 1.80/1.76/1.71/1.65 2019 1.78 K9/2019 K9 2 2022 16 5167 21 7843 CAGR 8.7%2026 1.1 2022-2026 CAGR 6.9%0100002000030000400002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 01000002000003000004000005000006000002004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 20 Table_ReportTypeIndex 39 3 AI+AI 2017 2017 7 AI 2021 600 2022-2026 17.1%2026 1450 40 040801201602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026ETO C TO B17-21 CAGR23.7%22-26 CAGR17.1%21 Table_ReportTypeIndex 41 K9+-S-S 1993 30 1Q24 11/+47.7%84%+793 FY23 45 42 FY15-FY1Q24 43 FY2020-FY1Q24 03006009001,2001,5001,800-80%-40%0%40%80%0481216FY1Q20FY2Q20FY3Q20FY4Q20FY1Q21FY2Q21FY3Q21FY4Q21FY1Q22FY2Q22FY3Q22FY4Q22FY1Q23FY2Q23FY3Q23FY4Q23FY1Q24 22 Table_ReportTypeIndex 44 2023 8 31 K9 30%+1Q24 43.8/47.5%23 1Q24 30%Q1 18.1 38.1%82.8%11 15 2023 1.2 45 FY23 46 1Q24 K9 30%+1Q24/12.4%/28.9%0.9pct/5.5pct 18.6%+8.2pct Non-GAAP 22.3%+9.3pct FY24Q2 2023 9 1 2023 11 30 7.85 8.04 23-26%01002003004005006002023 2021 23 Table_ReportTypeIndex 47 48 Non-gaap K12 570 110 1H23 270 30 2016 A A 2015 2016 2017-2019 2020 10 13.21%10.19%+8.67%+4.91%+602 2.79%2.07 1.94%1.94%504 1.62%1.23%3Q23 0.17 Q3 3Q23 32.9%/+10pct 2019-2021 10-13pct/8.4%-1.1pct/-1,300-1,000-700-400-100200500-50%-30%-10%10%30%Non-GAAP 24 Table_ReportTypeIndex 0.7pct-1.5pct 49 2016-2023Q1-Q3 50 2016-2023Q1-Q3 51 2016-2023Q1-Q3 52 23Q1-3 2023 7 3040 80%80%3Q23 4 1 1H23 6 4+OMO 2-80%-30%20%70%120%010203040 02468-2000%-1200%-400%400%1200%2000%-6.0-4.5-3.0-1.50.01.5 0%2%4%6%8%19Q1-3 23Q1-3 25 Table_ReportTypeIndex+2017 1 3 2 2 3 3 Q3 3Q23 2.04/+2.4%4187/+58.2%4248/+61.0%2023 5.61/-4.8%9955/+87.7%9995/+88.0%6.9pct 19.8%1 2 3 26 Table_ReportTypeIndex 1 1981-2020.3 2 1950-1970.4 3 1950-1970.4 4.5 5 1970-1990 K12 5-17.5 6.5 7 CPI 1986=100.5 8 2000-2020 K12.6 9 2013-2021.6 10.7 11.7 12 1950-1960.7 13 20 50.7 14 1971-1980.8 15 1971-1980.8 16 1985-2006.9 17 1985-2006 GDP.9 18 2016-2022.10 19 2007-2023.10 20 2007-2022.10 21 2022.10 22 985.11 23.11 24 K12.11 25 K12.11 26 GDP.12 27 K9.16 28 K9.16 29 2016-2021 CAGR16%.17 30 2016-2021 CAGR25%.17 31 2006-2016.17 32 2018-2023.17 33 2011-2020.18 34 2017-2019.18 35“”.18 36“”.18 37 2001-2022.19 38 2004-2022.19 39.20 40.20 41.21 42 FY15-FY1Q24.21 43 FY2020-FY1Q24.21 27 Table_ReportTypeIndex 44 2023 8 31.22 45 FY23.22 46 1Q24“”K9 30%+.22 47.23 48 Non-gaap.23 49 2016-2023Q1-Q3.24 50 2016-2023Q1-Q3.24 51 2016-2023Q1-Q3.24 52 23Q1-3.24 1 20 80.4 2.6 3.8 4 2000.9 5 1951-2018.12 6.13 7/.14 8/.15 9.16 28 Table_ReportTypeIndex Table_AuthorsRxplain 2022 7 Table_RatingStandard 6-12 300 20%6-12 300 20%Table_Avow Table_Contacts 3088 20 0755-83471683chengxi_ 0755-83479312suyiyun_ 99 31 021-60387901luyunru_ 021-20252671liyangyang_ 8 1 010-010-80927722tangmanling_
