20231228_国信证券_锂电行业深度系列：固态电池安全与能量密度优势明显产业化加速发展_38页.pdf
|2023 12 28 021-010-S0980520080003 2024 2024 2025-2026 2025-2030 2024 2.3GWh 2030 220GWh 2024-2030 114%2024 19.5 2030 1162.3 2024-2030 98%YWDWuNnQtQmNrPnOrMpQoP9P9R8OnPpPmOsRiNqRoMfQoMvM9PqQuMxNrMsMxNqNsR 01020304 1,.(2011 2021)J.2022 1 2 3 2.2022 3.2013 1.2013.J.,2023%10%110%1%300Wh/kg 350Wh/kg 500Wh/kg+1-6C 2C 2000+1000+/+/+/+/-2 2022 4 Fraunhofer.Solid-State Battery Roadmap 2035+.2022 350-400Wh/kg320-340Wh/kg255Wh/kg 1.0-1.2C 4C0.1-1C 0.25-1C 1000 4 0.000.200.400.600.801.00/Wh 1GWh 5 80%0.85/Wh 0.4-0.5/Wh 90%0.50/Wh 0.78/Wh 5/Wh 6 30.0%24.0%1.7%7.4%16.2%20.8%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90-2025 2015 5 2025 2030 400Wh/kg 500Wh/kg 2017 4 2025 350Wh/kg 2.0 2020 10 2025 200Wh/kg 200Wh/kg 350Wh/kg2030 250Wh/kg 225Wh/kg 400Wh/kg2035 300Wh/kg 250Wh/kg 500Wh/kg 2021-2035 2020 11 2023 1 2021-2030 2021 6 2030 500Wh/kg 2023 9 5 1600 2030+2018 12 2030 3 2030 2021 2035+2022(2025)(2030)2022 9 2030 K 2021 7 2027 2022 11 50 2030 40%2022 1000Pro 2023 2025-2029 Blue Solutions 1000km 2024 2024 2025-2026 2023 10 2024 3/2024H1 800V 2025 MG2024 1000km 10min 400km 2026 2025 350-500Wh/kg 2030 2035 2022 50 E70 2022 12 2024 405Wh/kg 2024 2028 E70 400km CLTC 730km 109kWh 2022 2023 2020 2022 2023 12 ET7 1000km 2024 1044km 150kWh 2023 SERES-5 A 2025 Solid Power 2030 Solid Power Factorial Energy Factorial Energy Quantum Scape 2027 Quantum Scape Solid Power Solid Power 2019 2023 2027 2030 SES 2024 2025-2030 SES SES LG SK On Factorial Energy 2027 2030 SES LG SK On Factorial Energy SES 2021 A SES 2024 2025 2028 2025-2030 2024-2030 1 0.2/0.8/1.8/3.6/6.0/8.0/10.0%2 0.2/0.8/2.0/4.5/7.0/10.0/12.0%3 0.0/0.1/0.2/0.4/0.6/0.9/1.5%2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E GWh 860 1022 1212 1392 1548 1679 1811 1946 GWh 2.0 9.7 25.1 55.7 100.7 144.8 194.6 GWh 120 127 135 141 147 153 158 162 GWh 0.3 1.1 2.8 6.6 10.7 15.8 19.5 GWh 200 150 220 275 310 350 380 400 GWh 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.4 6.0 GWh 1180 1299 1567 1809 2005 2182 2348 2509 GWh 1.0 2.3 11.0 28.4 63.6 113.5 164.0 220.10.2%0.7%1.6%5.2%7.0%8.8%2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E416 661 857 991 7 32 70 172 20 86 205 423 693 927 1,162 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 EV Tank SNE Research EV Tank SNE Research/2024-2030 CAGR 98%EV Tank SNE Research 4 7 8 378%159%79%44%34%0.31.43.78.214.320.325.80.10.30.71.92024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 4.721.453.6114.6193.3263.3321.90001.68.721.056.52024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 9/EV Tank SNE Research 2024-2030 CAGR 108%2024-2030 CAGR113%mAh/g 0.1C 155-163 150-220 130-320 100-140 130-147 800-2000 V 3.2 3.7 3.7-4.6 3.7-3.8 4.7-g/cm3 2.2-2.7 3.4-3.7 2.9-3.1 2.9-3.2 2.8-3.3-3000-120001000-30001000-6000400-2000400-100050-1850 5.,.2022.2014.2023 4200mAh/g 1 2 10/EV Tank SNE Research 2024-2030 CAGR111%3.716.13771.6107.4126.6128.80.94.410.225.42024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 6.2022 0.10.71.84.17.210.112.90.01 0.04 0.09 0.23 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2024-2030 CAGR 86%mAh/g 310-370 400-4000 Li-Al Li-Sn Li-In Li-Si400-4000 3860 /-+AGC 2025 11/EV Tank SNE Research 1.14.48.515.72226.529.71.66.813.9332024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 7.2023 2011-2021.2022 2024-2030 CAGR 95%2024-2030 CAGR138%0.02 0.11 0.30.61.11.62.00.06 0.30.82.22024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E S/cm PEO PMMA PVDF 10 4 65-78 10 5 10 7 4V 5V LiPON 10 7 10 5 Li2S-P2S5 Li2S-P2S5-MSx10 4 10 22-5V LiaMXb M X 10 3 8.,.2022.2014.2023 mAh/g 0.1C 155-163 150-220 130-320 100-140 130-147 800-2000 V 3.2 3.7 3.7-4.6 3.7-3.8 4.7-g/cm3 2.2-2.7 3.4-3.7 2.9-3.1 2.9-3.2 2.8-3.3-3000-12000 1000-3000 1000-6000 400-2000 400-1000 50-1850 9 2016 NCM811 2019 Ni90 2021 NCMA Ni 90 NCM811 202mAh/g Ni90 210mAh/g Ni96 220mAh/g NCA 200mAh/g 225mAh/g 250Wh/kg2022 4 2022 5 2027 4 2022-2025 3 2018 NCM811 2022 Ni 90/Ni 93 NCM8 204-219mAh/g NCM9 215-235mAh/g2021 12 2022-2025 2.5 2022 7 2022-2025 3 9 NCMA 2021 2023H1 8 83%8 9 2019 NCM811 2023 9 NCM8 210mAh/g 10 2019 2023H1 4 Ni83 210mAh/gNi87 215mAh/gNi92 223mAh/g 2017 NCA 2019 SK On M2-G:208 3mAh/g 2018 Ni8 2023H1 NCM 9 Ni8 210mAh/g 9 NCA NCM NCM 9 220mAh/g 2009 2023 4.45V 220-230mAh/g 4.5-4.6V 250mAh/g2022 11/2006 2013 2017 2020 2000mAh/g 1500mAh/g DXB5 450 5mAh/g 93.0%DXB6 500 5mAh/g 92.0%DXB8 650 10mAh/g 91.5%DXA8-LA 650 10mAh/g 91.0%0.5 4 2009 2021 2022/GS50 500mAh/g 90.0 1.0%GS45 600mAh/g 88.5 1.0%SG43 430mAh/g 93.5 1.0%SG45 450mAh/g 92.5 1.0%0.1 4/SCX-1:450-460mAh/gXS1:420-4300mAh/g 2021 2022/1:450 10mAh/g 87 1.0%2:600 10mAh/g 84 1.0%1.2 12/2020 2017 2022/0.1 5 2017 1996 2022 1 650mAh/g 88%2 400mAh/g 93%1 500mAh/g 90%2 1300mAh/g 82%1.2 0.3 17 400Wh/Kg 0.7 3%-13.2023/-14 D50/2017-LATP 1mS/cm 4.78um 3000 1994-LLZTO/LLZO1mS/cm 0.20um 50 2024 2016+-LLZTO/LLZO 0.5mS/cm 0.2mS/cm 2000-LLZTO/LLZO-LATP LATP 0.6mS/cm 0.8mS/cm 2.5mS/cm 2021/-LLTO&LLZO&LATP LLTO 0.05-1mS/cmLLZO/LATP 0.5-1mS/cmLLTO 0.36umLLZO 0.33umLATP 0.21um 6000 5 15 D50/1998-LATP/LAGP-2000-PEO-LLZTO/LLZO-1996 2000-LATP/LLZO 3.0mS/cmLATP 0.5mS/cm0.3-1.0um 2000 2022 /LLZO 2022 6800-3%70.6%/8.7%50 0.7%2022 140 10%2022 121.58 2022 30.27-7%33.36 50%3D 2.6 0.94 40%5 20%2 2.6 2 8 2.6 12 70.6%8.7%3.1%2.6%0.7%14.3%13 /LLZO/LLTO 70%2022 30 21 LLTO/LATP 2022 TiO2 7 29%LAGP LGPS 2022 8600 3500 41%45%2022 182 7 43%28%19%60 50%600 2022 55.9 600 14 1GWh GGII 1GWH 100 LLZO/LLTO0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0LLZO-LLZO-LLTO-LLTO-15 IDTechEx Research.Solid-State and Polymer Batteries 2023-2033:Technology,Forecasts,Players.2023 16/2022-2023 2024/2023E 2024E 2025E 2023 4 500Wh/kg 2023 6 2023 10 300-360Wh/kg+50.2 5.8 8.2 16.2 2018 2020 2022 2024H1 2025 368Wh/kg+45.7 2.7 2.7 16.7 2021 1 E70 2022 8 2023 6 SERES-5 2023 12 400Wh/kg+40.0 4.0 10.0 20.0 2016 2018 2019 2022 1 2022 7 Vinfast 2024 2022 ACC 2024 360Wh/kg Vinfast 50.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2022 2024 330Wh/kg 2017 2022 360Wh/kg+2020 2023 12 A 2021 2022 330Wh/kg+2024Q4 350Wh/kg 2022 350Wh/kg+12.2 0.2 2.2 5.2 2023 4 2GWh 2.0 1.0 2.0 2021 2023 300-350Wh/kg 10.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 17/2025-2030/SDI2022 3 2023 2023Q4 2027 LG 2026 650Wh/L 2028 750h/L 2030 900Wh/L 2023Q3LG SK On 2026 2028+2019 Prime Planet Energy&Solutions 2025-2029 2023 5Ah Maxell 2023 Quantum Scape 2010 2023 2025 B 2022 Fluence 2023Q2 A0 2025 1GWh 21GWh Solid Power 2017 2021 SK On 2022 2023 A 2025 2030 2023 30-60 390Wh/kg SES SK On 2021 A 2023 12 B 2025 2023-2024 1GWh+399Wh/kg Factorial Energy2021 2022 Stellantis Stellantis 2023 200MWh A/16 Fraunhofer.Solid-State Battery Roadmap 2035+.2022 OCSiAl 1 2 3 DNP 17 2024 18 2023.12.27 EPS PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E300750.SZ 6789.0 154.33 12.58 9.84 11.25 12.3 15.7 13.7300014.SZ 798.4 39.03 1.72 2.45 3.52 22.7 15.9 11.1300073.SZ 185.4 36.60 4.46 4.04 4.15 8.2 9.1 8.8688005.SH 181.6 37.50 3.00 2.37 3.00 12.5 15.8 12.5688778.SH 160.4 38.12 3.73 1.47 2.05 10.2 25.9 18.6603659.SH 428.5 20.04 1.54 1.14 1.39 13.0 17.6 14.4002709.SZ 435.4 22.63 2.97 1.17 1.27 7.6 19.3 17.8688116.SH 91.0 26.48 1.82 0.68 1.03 14.5 38.9 25.7:Wind 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 20%10%-20%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
