20230619_安信证券_集成电路行业证券研究报告:先进制程贴近物理极限算力需求Chiplet迎来黄金发展期_30页.pdf
1 2023 06 19 Chiplet-A 600584 42.49-A Wind%1M 3M 12M 2.8 2.7 5.6 2.4 2.0-3.2 SAC S1450518060001 SAC S1450521080002 Chiplet Chiplet SoC Chiplet SoC Chiplet 5nm 3nm Chiplet Chiplet SoC AI Chiplet Chiplet 5G IC Chiplet AMD 2023 APU Accelerated Processing Unit MI300 13 3D 24 Zen4 CPU 128GB HBM3 1460 MI250 8,5 H100 4nm COWOS GPUSOC 6 HBM GH200 Chiplet 72 Grace CPU H100 GPU 96GB HBM3 512 GB LPDDR5X 2000 Gartner Chiplet 2020 33 2022 100 2023 250 2024 505 98%Chiplet Intel Chiplet 3DFabric 3D 3D Silicon Stacking FPGA GPU AMD CPU GPU-24%-14%-4%6%16%26%36%2022-06 2022-10 2023-02 2023-06 300 2/Chiplet Chiplet XDFOI TSV-less 7nm Chiplet 5nm 3D Matrix Chiplet 5G 600584 002156 002185 688362 IP 688521 300604 688001 0YEVvMrMtQoPoQnOmRsNqR6MdN9PpNpPoMpMkPoOtNiNsQnN9PnNxPuOsOrQMYoOqR/3 1.Chiplet.5 1.1.Chiplet.5 1.2.Chiplet.6 2.AI Chiplet.8 2.1.Chiplet.8 2.2.Chiplet.11 3.IC Chiplet.12 3.1.Chiplet.12 3.2.Chiplet.14 3.3.Chiplet.15 4.16 4.1.23H2.16 4.2.AMD AI+Chiplet.18 4.3.Chiplet.20 4.4.Chiplet.21 4.5.Chiplet.23 4.6.Chiplet+.25 4.7.:Chiplet.26 5.28 5.1.28 5.2.28 5.3.28 5.4.28 1.Chiplet.5 2.Chiplet.6 3.Chiplet.7 4.Chiplet.7 5.GPU MAX.8 6.H100 A100.9 7.GH200.10 8.Instinct MI300 Instinct MI250 AI AI.10 9.930.11 10.UCle.11 11.Chiplet.12 12.12 13.Chiplet.13 14.Chiplet.14 15.3DFabric.14 16.EMIB.15 17.3D IC.15 18.XDFOI.16 /4 19.3D Matrix.16 20.17 21.17 22.17 23.2022.18 24.18 25.19 26.19 27.20 28.21 29.21 30.3D Matrix.21 31.22 32.22 33.22 34.2022.23 35.23 36.24 37.24 38.24 39.25 40.25 41.2022.26 42.26 43.27 44.27 1.6 2 Chiplet SoC.7 3.20 4.27 5.28 /5 1.Chiplet 1.1.Chiplet Chiplet SoC Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet IP SoC Chiplet 1.Chiplet 5nm 3nm IBS 16nm 3nm 16nm 10nm 10 23.5%5nm 3nm 4%Chiplet Gordon Moore 18-24 Chiplet SoC /6 1 16nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm Chip area(mm2 125 87.66 83.27 85 85 No.of transistors(BU)3.3 4.3 6.9 10.5 14.1 Gross die per wafer 478 686 721 707 707 Net die per wafer 359.74 512.44 545.65 530.25 509.04 Wafer price($)5912 8389 9965 12500 15500 Die cost($)16.43 16.37 18.26 23.57 30.45 Transistor cost per 1B transistors($)4.98 3.81 2.65 2.25 2.16 IBS 1.2.Chiplet SoC Chiplet 1.Chiplet AI wafer Chiplet 2.Chiplet 2.Chiplet Chiplet SoC Chiplet /7 3.Chiplet Wikichip 3.Chiplet Chiplet The Linley Group Chiplets Gain Rapid Adoption:Why Big Chips Are Getting Small Chiplet 7nm 25%5nm 4.Chiplet 2 Chiplet SoC SoC Chiplet 7nm 2 SoC 18 12 SOC SIP Chiplet /8 Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet 2.5D/3D SiP Chiplet 2.AI Chiplet 2.1.Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Die to Die Fabric CPU GPU NPU Chiplet Cache CPU Cache 3D Chiplet Chiplet 5G Chiplet HPC AI Chiplet Chiplet 2022 GPU Max 3D GPGPU 47 5 5.GPU MAX AMD APU Accelerated Processing Unit MI300 Chiplet 4 6 9 5 AMD Instinct MI250 8 AI 5 AI UltraFusion Chiplet 1 2.5TB/s UCIe 1.0 /9 M1 Ultra M1 Max UltraFusion CPU 20 GPU 64 M1 Ultra 32 22 ChatGPT AI AI Chiplet GPU CPU Chiplet AI Chiplet AI Chiplet AI 2022 H100 GPU 4nm Chiplet Chiplet HBM3 3TB/s 4nm H100 GPU 814 800 A100 GPU 6.H100 A100 AI GH200 H100 H100 GPU GH200 CPU+GPU GH200 NVLink-C2C Chiplet Arm NVIDIA Grace CPU NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPU GH200 72 Grace CPU H100 GPU 96GB HBM3 512 GB LPDDR5X 2000 CPU GPU 900G/s PCIe5 NVLink-C2C 25 90 /10 7.GH200 AMD MI300 Chiplet CPU+GPU MI300 HPC AI Chiplet 13 3D 24 Zen4 CPU 128GB HBM3 1460 MI250 8,5 8.Instinct MI300 Instinct MI250 AI AI Chiplet AI 930 12nm RISC-V CPU 2.5D 820TOPS INT8 AI /11 9.930 2.2.Chiplet Chiplet 2022 3 AMD Arm Google Cloud Meta UCIe die-to-die Chiplet 80 Chiplet UCIe Chiplet 10.UCle UCle Chiplet 2022 12 Gartner Chiplet 2020 33 2022 100 2023 250 2024 505 98%30%SiP Chiplet MPU Chiplet Omdia 2024 MPU Chiplet Chiplet 43%/12 11.Chiplet Gartner Chiplet Chiplet Yole 2021 321 2027 572 10%Chiplet I/O pad Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet 12.Yole 3.IC Chiplet 3.1.Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet EDA/IP IO Die Base Die Chiplet Chiplet EDA Chiplet /13 13.Chiplet IP IP IP Chiplet EDA EDA Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet 2.5D 2.5+3D 3D Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet 5G AMD 2019 Chiplet EPYC Intel 2022 3D Chiplet Ponte Vecchio 47 5 1000 M1 Ultra Chiplet M1 Max Chiplet /14 14.Chiplet 3.2.Chiplet Intel 2.5D 3D 2.5D FPGA CPU GPU Chiplet 3D 3D IC 3D 3D Chiplet 3DFabric 3D 3D Silicon Stacking 3DFabric 3D TSMC SoIC Chip on Wafer on Substrate,CoWoS Integrated Fan-Out,InFO 3D Chiplet FPGA GPU AMD CPU 15.3DFabric Intel 2.5D EMIB interposer interposer TSV interposer MCM CoWoS EMIB(Foveros EMIB Co-EMIB)IDM2.0 /15 16.EMIB HPC 2020 8 X Cube 3D TSV X Cube SRAM 7nm EUV SRAM I-Cube die HBM die 17.3D IC FOCoS FOCoS FOCoS-B(GPU)(HBM)RDL 2.5D 2.5D FOCoS-B 3.3.Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet XDFOI TSV-less FPGA CPU/GPU AI/16 5G XDFOI 2.5D TSV-less/2 m/2 m 2D/2.5D 3D Chiplet XDFOI 2.5D 4nm 18.XDFOI Chiplet 7nm 5nm 2.5D/3D VISionS FCBGA AMD Chiplet AMD Chiplet Chiplet 5G SiP FC TSV Bumping Fan-Out WLP 3D 3D Matrix TSV eSiFo Fan-out 3D SIP 19.3D Matrix Chiplet Chiplet 4.4.1.23H2 /17 1972 2003 WLP 2.5D/3D SiP 20.2020-2022 264.64 305.02 337.62 13.04 29.59 32.31 5G 2022 337.62 10.7%32.3 9.2%6 2022 2022 85%46%2023 Q1 58.60-27.99%1.10-87.24%0.56-92.80%Q1 23Q1 2023Q1-5.20pct 11.84%-7.69%1.88%23Q1 21.22.wind wind 23856.49 23526.28 26463.99 30502.42 33762.03 5860.20-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%05000100001500020000250003000035000400002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1营业收入(百万元)YOY毛利率-939.32 88.66 1304.39 2958.71 3230.99 109.93-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-2000-1000010002000300040002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1归母净利润(百万元)净利率 ROE/18 2022 39.3%29.3%17.4%9.6%4.4%4.5 4.2 1.8 5G 25%23.2022 2022 Chiplet XDFOI Chiplet 4nm 1500mm Chiplet 2D 2.5D 3D XDFOI 5G 4.2.AMD AI+Chiplet 1997 2007 2014 2 100 2021 OSAT 5G 24.39.30%29.30%17.40%9.60%4.40%通讯电子消费电子运算电子工业及医疗电子汽车电子/19 2016 AMD+AMD AMD AMD AMD AMD AMD AMD 2020-2022 107.69 158.12 214.29 3.38 9.57 5.02 3 7nm 5nm FCBGA Chiplet AMD 2022 Chiplet 2023 Q1 46.42+3.11%0.05-97.24%-0.46-131.72%Q1 2023Q1 9.45%-4.45pct 25.26.wind wind Chiplet 2.5D/3D Chiplet ChipLast Fan-out 5 RDL 65 65mm FCBGAMCM 13 100 100mm Chiplet 7nm 5nm AMD NXP TI ST 2021 100%7222.86 8266.57 10768.70 15812.23 21428.58 4641.78 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%05000100001500020000250002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1营业收入(百万元)YOY毛利率126.94 19.14 338.43 956.69 502.00 4.55 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%0200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1归母净利润(百万元)净利率 ROE/20 3 2.5D/3D(VISionS)FCBGA Chiplet AMD(SiP/SLI)5G WiFi TWS SiP NAND Flash LPDDR TSV 3DS DRAM mini DFN 2*2 Clip Cu Wafer ST Si IGBT AMOLED IC COP 2022 4.3.Chiplet 2003 12 25 2007 11 20 DIP/SDIP SOT SOP SSOP TSSOP/ETSSOP QFP/LQFP/TQFP QFN/DFN BGA/LGA FC MCM(MCP)SiP WLP TSV Bumping MEMS 2022 3D FO SiP TCB 3D Memory 232 3D NAND Flash Wafer DP 7.7 1 PAMiD HBPOP 27.2020-2022 83.82 120.97 119.06 7.02 14.16 7.54 2022 2022 16.84%7.77 8.59%5.62 2023 Q1 22.39-25.56%-1.06-151.43%-1.82-222.67%Q1 2023Q1-12.85pct 3.99%-14.25%-5.66%/21 2022 237 6 42 202 28.29.wind wind Chiplet 3D FO SiP TSV eSiFo 3D SiP 3D Matrix eSiFO Fan-out eSiFO TSV eSinC eSiFO TSV Bumping 3D SiP Chiplet 5G 30.3D Matrix 4.4.Chiplet 2017 2022 FC SiP QFN/DFN MEMS4 2017 7121.71 8103.49 8382.08 12096.79 11905.96 2239.00-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020004000600080001000012000140002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1营业收入(百万元)YOY毛利率389.83 286.79 701.71 1415.67 753.95-106.37-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-200020040060080010001200140016002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1归母净利润(百万元)净利率 ROE/22 31.5G 2020-2022 7.48 20.55 21.77 0.28 3.22 1.38 2022 2019-2021 2022 SiP QFN 2023 Q1 4.25-26.86%-0.50-170.04%-0.69-211.12%Q1 2023Q1 2022 1-13.52%8.39%75.06%23Q1 170.04%32.33.wind wind 38.54 365.77 748.01 2054.62 2176.99 424.65-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1营业收入(百万元)YOY毛利率-39.05-39.60 27.85 322.07 138.13-49.87-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%2500%-100-500501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1归母净利润(百万元)净利率 ROE/23 2022 SIP 122,524.49 7.93%25.16%10.45 QFN/DFN 63,184.17 10.10%11.31%16.92 FC 29,206.06 58.64%66.82%3.36 MEMS 537.12 70.54%74.56%13.12 34.2022 wind Chiplet SiP Chiplet SiP Fan-in Fan-out 2.5D 3D EMI Shielding Bumping 7 TSV Chiplet 35.4.5.Chiplet 2001 2020 IP IP Silicon Platform as a Service IP 56.28%29.02%13.42%0.25%1.03%系统级封装产品扁平无引脚封装产品高密度细间距凸点倒装产 品微机电系统传感器其他产品/24 36.2022 26.79 25.23%IP 8.93 26.57%17.80 24.19%2022 0.74 455.31%2022 2022 21.50 2023 16.95 78.82%2023 Q1 5.39-3.77%-0.72-2280.25%2023 18.10 Q1 IP-9.98%38.94%5.31%26.92%37.38.wind wind 10.5713.4015.0621.3926.795.39-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1营业收入(百万元)YOY毛利率-0.68-0.41-0.260.130.74-0.72-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.812018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1归母净利润(百万元)净利率 ROE/25 Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet IP IP as a Chiplet Chiplet as a Platform Chiplet 12nm SoC Chiplet Chiplet UCIe 4.6.Chiplet+2008 STI 2018 2.16 2022 25.77 2018 0.36 2022 4.61 2022 2022 Exis EXIS 2023Q1 3.20-40.48%-61.12%-0.57-180.50%-141.91%Q1 D9000K SoC 39.40.Wind Wind 2022 12.55 11.16+34.04%+128.18%44.62%68.96%+1.97pct+1.29pct 43.32%216.12398.83803.831,511.232,576.53320.00-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0500100015002000250030002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1营业收入(百万元)YOY毛利率36.4711.9484.86218.24461.08-57.23-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-10001002003004005002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1归母净利润(百万元)净利率 ROE/26 41.2022 wind Chiplet CP Chiplet CP SoC Chiplet CP FT Chiplet 2D 2.5D 3D Chiplet 4.7.:Chiplet 2005 6 2019 2018 2020 LCD OLED SIP 42.MiniLED Micro-LED Micro-OLED AOI 2022 15.08 48.71%43.32%7.97%分选机测试机其他/27 0.92%64.98%5.66 35.55%24.39%ATE SOC PXIE SOC SiP SoC T7600 400MHZ SOC J750-HD CIS MCU 4 THD=2048=800Mhz=48A=1024=400Mhz=10A=512=100Mhz=5A-70dB 3380 S100 S200 T7600 2304 400Mhz 32A-115dB 2022 2020-2022 16.77 20.20 23.20 2.65 3.14 3.31 2022 2022 52.08%0.96 14.27%1.27 2023Q1 3.59-3.91%0.27-34.41%Q1 Q1 52.03%+4.93%Micro OLED 43.44.Wind Wind Chiplet Chiplet Chiplet PXIE 1,005.081,257.741,677.502,020.212,319.99358.69-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1营业收入(百万元)YOY毛利率243.29176.45265.11313.97331.0426.800%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1归母净利润(百万元)净利率 ROE/28 EP3000 5 2023.06.19 EPS PE 2022 06.19 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 688584.SH 33.51 598.68 1.81 1.95 2.12 2.36 17.93 16.65 15.28 13.76 002156.SZ 24.84 375.89 0.45 0.50 0.74 0.90 55.01 50.08 33.75 27.56 002185.SZ 9.75 312.44 0.21 0.25 0.37 0.46 46.23 37.77 26.35 20.90 688362.SH 35.25 143.70 0.32 1.68 2.92 4.77 109.31 85.21 49.03 30.02 688521.SH 87.82 439.54 0.15 0.29 0.48 0.69 590.74 297.38 182.91 127.45 300604.SZ 53.16 323.18 0.76 1.35 1.70 2.17 69.96 39.23 31.25 24.45 688001.SH 31.55 139.01 0.75 0.94 1.26 1.69 40.48 32.21 24.19 18.03 Wind Wind 5.5.1.5.2.Chiplet 5.3.5.4./29 6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%A 6 300 B 6 300 /30 19 33 518026 638 3 200080 2 15 100034