人形机器人的国产供应链机遇机器人系列专题报告()()()S0350521120001 S0350523050001 S()2023 06 13 2 300 1M 3M 12M 2.8%-4.9%5.4%300-2.4%-3.1%-9.3%-0.1775-0.1089-0.04030.02830.09690.1655 300*2022-12-07WUBYxOnQnOqRpRtQtOoRqRaQbP6MpNnNsQoNiNqQrPfQrQsR6MoPrMMYmOnRNZqRmM3 2023-06-12 EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E688017.SH 137.35 0.92 1.47 2.02 105.06 93.69 67.91 未评级002472.SZ 23.86 0.68 0.94 1.23 37.18 25.29 19.33 未评级002896.SZ 26.78 0.44 0.65 0.99 51.50 40.89 27.17 未评级301368.SZ 56.91 0.37/53.23/未评级300124.SZ 58.76 1.62 2.07 2.63 42.77 29.29 22.34 未评级688320.SH 35.55 0.60 1.14 1.67 78.20 31.29 21.26 未评级603728.SH 54.28 0.59 0.97 1.49 56.63 56.08 36.38 未评级300660.SZ 26.79 0.99 1.12 1.47 23.70 23.98 18.21 未评级873593.BJ 93.54 2.91 2.77 3.66 68.64 33.77 25.55 未评级603662.SH 27.55 0.92 1.28 1.57 17.87 21.54 17.59 未评级688322.SH 46.79-0.72-0.51-0.13/未评级002050.SZ 26.62 0.72 0.87 1.07 29.61 30.69 24.81 未评级601689.SH 68.40 1.54 2.13 2.97 37.97 32.08 23.03 未评级 Wind wind 4 Optimus 2023 5 Atlas CyberOne WalkerX AI ChatGPT PaLM-E 2022 AI Day+FSD 10 2 50%40%20%5&SLAM 6 Optimus FSD 2022 AI Day 71.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 AI ChatGPT for Robotics PaLM 2.2+3.1+2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.3 81.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 91.1-1950s 1960s-1990s 2000 1938 W Pollard&H Roselund 1948 Norbert Wiener 1954 George Devol Unimate 1959 George Devol&Joseph Engelberger 1961 1962 AMF 1967 Unimate 1969 Kawasaki-Unimate 2000 1974 Richard Hohn 1980 1984 ABB IRB 1000 1992 AGV 2000 ASIMO 2005 Big Dog 2011 2012 Rethink Robotics Baxter 2013 Atlas 2022 Optimus 2022 AI Day 101.2 1950 Computing Machinery and Intelligence ITF World 2023 embodied AI 1963 pattern:11+2023 5 2023-2025 Perception Imagination Execution 1.2 Embodied Intelligence in soft robotics:joys and sorrows Cecilia Laschi1 Real to Sim Sim to Real 12 Optimus Cyber One WalkerX Atlas IIT iCub3 2022 2022 2021 2018 2022 172cm73kg508km/h177cm52kg213.6km/h130cm63kg413km/h150cm89kg289km/h129cm52kg54-+Mi sense IMU TOF FSD Intel i7 8665U MPC 45 iFeel iCub3 1.3 Tesla 2022 AI Day Tesla 2021 AI Day ubtrobot 131.3 2021 8 AI 1 Tesla Bot 2022 9 AI 2 Optimus Tesla 2022 AI Day Tesla 2021 AI Day Tesla 2023 2023 5 3 2022 2 2022 4 2022 8 2022 9 Optimus 2023 Optimus 2022 AI AI AI AI Optimus 141.3 CyberOne 21 2022 8 CyberOne 1.77 52kg Mi-Sense AI CyberOne MiAI+MiAI 85 6 45 5 13 300Nm 21 2022 CyberOne 60-70 2022&151.3 WalkerX 41Walker 2018 WalkerX 41 1.5 Walker Walker Walker 2019 2021 24/7Tempo 2021 Walker 10 2020 2021 2022 Walker 40 890 730 2016 Walker12018 Walker22019 WalkerX2021 161.4+AI+ChatGPT PaLM AI+172.1 AI ChatGPT for Robotics PaLM 2.2+182.1 AI A Survey of Large Language Models Wayne Xin Zhao ChatGPT for Robotics PaLM-E:An Embodied Multimodal Language Model(Google()ITFWorld2023 2023 AI AI intelligent agent AI AI ChatGPT PaLM-E Nvidia VIMA AI 2022.062023.022023.032023.052023.052023.05 ITFWorld2023 AI Nvidia VIMA AI UC Berkeley LM-Nav LM-Nav GPT-3 ChatGPT for Robotics:Design Principles andModel Abilities ChatGPT PaLM-E I/O PaLM 2 PaLM 2023 AI 192.1ChatGPT ChatGPT OpenAI 2022 11 30 ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT ChatGPT for Robotics:Design Principles and Model Abilities 202.1 PaLM Google PaLM-E:An Embodied Multimodal Language Model 2023 3 5620 PaLM-E ViT Vision Transformer 220 PaLM 5400 CV 2023 5 I/O PaLM-2 PaLM PaLM-E PaLM-E 212.2+2022 AI Day Optimus 14 Optimus+Tesla 2022 AI Day Maxon222.2 232.2+RV RV RV 65%35%RV RV RV 3C 30kg 5,000-8,000/1,000-5,000/optimus 2 12 242.2+Optimus 14+Optimus Tesla 2022 AI Day 252.2 Optimus+6 11 1 90%2 28 3 2%4 1/3-1/2 5 6 Tesla 2022 AI Day WKXMOTOR Maxon Optimus+Optimus 6 1 1 262.2 TOF yole EE Times ADAS model 3 272.2+Optimus Optimus+YUV+Panoptic Segmentation+3D Occupancy Network Optimus Autopilot Tesla 2022 AI Day 282.2 FSD Optimus FSD FSD NPU GPU ISP H.265 Optimus FSD ISP+VID.EncGPUNeural Network Accelerator*2Safety&SecurityCPU*12FSD Cortex-A72 2 GHz H.265 14nm FinFET 6 AEC Q100 37.5 x 37.5mm FCBGA Tesla 2022 AI Day 29 3.1+23.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 303.1&SLAM/To C To B To B&To C 313.1 Optimus+2 2 10 2025 5 2 FSD 105205102021 2025E 远景-50%-20%-40%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%Donews 2022 AI Day 323.2+2025 33 27.5 8 GGII 2021 24.7%2020 21%RV 82%7%11%21%6.1%4.1%4.7%9%37%18.1%24.7%7.7%4.5%4.2%7.4%35.5%16%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2020 2021 GGII 93.11109.92700501001502002503002021 2022 2026E2021-2026E 2017-2025E 12.611.312.414.916.818.527.51.11.31.82.55.70102030402017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025E 333.2 IH P P DNG 10%+2023 4 Wind Bloomberg P 20%-30%2018-2022 0%20%40%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022绿的谐波 哈默纳科2018-2022 2.201.862.174.43 4.460.640.580.811.901.56-50%0%50%100%150%0123452018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)(%)343.2 1995 2022 2.28 53.1%1.05 24.78%0.92 21.43%0.01 0.26%50%25%Wind 2019-2023Q1 2018-2022 2018-2022 26.53 26.7425.4221.1919.6810.3420.4112.7710.7 10.470510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 2022%3.063.765.684.290.840.62 0.48 0.61 0.45 0.08-50%0%50%100%150%01234562019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%1.45 1.541.962.952.241.381.521.82.742.0401234562018 2019 2020 2021 2022 353.3 2018-2022%2018-2022 2008 2022 8 55%2018-2022 IVD Wind 0.5 0.60.81.31.9012342018 2019 2020 2021 2022 55.157.5 58.560.664.90501002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.70.81.31.93.20.20.00.30.51.0-20002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600011223342018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy(%)yoy(%)43.752.7 50.960.753.5 34.4 38.735.62.813.010.43.80%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022 IVD%363.4+2020 20%45%35%,20.4%,16.5%,12.6%,12.1%,8.7%,8.2%,3.6%,2.3%,15.6%2021,15.9%,11.9%,8.9%,8.8%,8.3%,46.2%2021H1,11.3%,10.5%,9.9%,9.8%,9.4%,49.1%2020,20%,15%,20%,45%2021 373.4 PLC/2022 230.1 28.2%43.2 20.9%2022 21.5%PLC 11.9%2018-2022 2018-2022 2022 15.5%14.9%16.1%53.5%ABB 9.8%11.9%41.0%37.3%21.5%10.4%7.8%52.7%Wind PLC 58.74 73.90 115.11 179.43 230.08 11.67 9.52 21.00 35.73 43.20-40-200204060801001201400501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy(%)yoy(%)47.963.7100.4144.2174.610.9 10.214.735.255.5010203040500501001502002018 2019 2020 2021 2022%383.4 PLC 2011 11 2022 PLC PLC PLC 40%PLC 2.3 2.7 4.6 6.6 7.6 024682018 2019 2020 2021 2022 PLC 2018-2022 40.4 42.1 43.6 39.0 29.5 45.0 46.3 47.1 34.3 43.8 19.0 18.8 20.4 23.0 11.2 010203040502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 PLC 2018-2022%2018-2022 2018-2022 Wind 2.833.135.447.519.440.5 0.481.07 1.10.9-40-2002040608010012014002468102018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy(%)yoy(%)0.320.450.670.871.050%5%10%15%20%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.22018 2019 2020 2021 2022 393.5 2023 29%26%20%FAULHABER Maxon Tesla 2022 AI Day%FAULHABER Maxon 29%26%20%13%7%2%3%358.5560.601002003004005006002022 2030E2022-2030E 403.5 1994 10%+2022 27.4%2020 1.5 2022 48%Wind 2018-2023Q1 2018-2022 2007 AMP 2014 AMP FA 2015 Lin Engineering Lin Engineering 0.9HB 2019 Technosoft motion Maxon TML 10.8 11.42 12.1515.6115.358.14 9.16 9.98 11.53 14.25 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.941.351.521.862.180.615.0%6.6%6.9%6.9%7.4%9.4%0%2%4%6%8%10%00.511.522.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1(%413.6+23Q1 2.2 9.4%0.56 60.04%2022 5.54 52%37.29%+4.01pct 1.02 9.6%44.41%+14.08pct 2022 8%2.2pct 727 424 2.7 Wind 2019-2023Q1 2018-2022 2018-2022%4.7 4.75.25.85.51.11.41.62.72.10246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0204060802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018-2022 0204060800246810122019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 yoy(%)yoy%362039694688596584945.15.45.65.88024681002000400060008000100002018 2019 2020 2021 2022%423.6 3D2018-2022%2018-2022 2013 2022 7 3D 3D 3D iToF dToF Lidar 2020 3D 3D 2.05.21.83.52.101234562018 2019 2020 2021 20223D 33.362.5 62.050.348.557.131.228.133.627.571.766.077.964.366.00204060802018 2019 2020 2021 20223D 2018-2022 2018-2022 Wind 2.16.02.64.73.5-1.0-5.2-6.2-3.1-2.9-500-400-300-200-1000100200300-8-6-4-2024682018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy(%)yoy(%)0%50%100%150%0123452018 2019 2020 2021 2022 43 4.1 4.2 4.3 44 Wind+A 884216.WI 2014-2022 300 000300.SH 4.1 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002013/12 2014/7 2015/2 2015/9 2016/4 2016/11 2017/6 2018/1 2018/8 2019/3 2019/10 2020/5 2020/12 2021/7 2022/2 2022/9 2023/4特斯拉指数-884216.WI 沪深300-000300.SH454.2 2023 5 20.3 2023 4 RV Tier1 RV PLC/HMI PLC+PLC+PLC Wind 464.2 wind 2022 10%+30%+2019 2022 8+3D 3D 3D 3D iToF dToF Lidar 474.2 wind 1984 9 20 500 500 2023 4 Optimus 1983 NVH OEM NVH QSTP Tier0.5 484.3 49 300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%,WIND 50 R3/51 国 海 28F 518041 0755-83706353 C1 200023 021-61981300 168 25F 100044 010-88576597