20230612_华创证券_证券行业深度研究报告:从头部聚集趋势探寻更具确定性的中小券商发展机会_21页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 06 12 2013 CR5 CR10 20132021 3995 42%1961 14%1 CR10 10 61%1%20152023 29%6.8%1.44 1.52 2 20132022 CR10 42%45%AUM 20092022 CR10 49%46%CR10 63%35%AUM 20152022 CR10 59%71%IPO CR10 46%55%1 ROE 2 ROE 1 2 3 EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 6.69 0.33 0.41 0.49 20.39 16.43 13.60 1.21 14.23 0.64 0.79 1.00 22.23 18.03 14.18 2.47 9.19 0.32 0.40 0.49 28.50 22.81 18.59 1.50 Wind 2023 6 9 021-20572556 S0360518060005%()54 0.01()31,262.60 3.35()24,066.79 3.39%1M 6M 12M-9.3%-2.4%1.9%-4.6%1.6%10.1%2023-06-10 2023-05-29 2023 ROE PB 2023-05-16-16%-7%2%11%22/06 22/08 22/11 23/01 23/03 23/062022-06-132023-06-09 300 2009 1210 1 ROE 2 ROE 1 2 3 YWCXzQmRpMmNpRoNtOsNrQaQcMbRnPmMoMmPlOnNqOkPrQtQ8OrRuMuOsOnQvPsRwO 2009 1210 3.5.7.11.15.17.18 2009 1210 4 1.5 2.5 3.6 4.6 5 20132022.6 6.7 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.9 14.10 15 20 20212022.10 16.11 17.11 18.12 19 20202021 X Y.12 20.13 21.13 22.13 23 ETF.14 24.14 25.15 26.15 27.16 28 IPO.16 29.16 30.16 31 2022/12/31.18 2009 1210 5 2022 2018 2018 2018 2022 20132021 CR10 58.9%61.8%CR10 67.2%2015 1 Wind 2 Wind CR10 61.7%59.9%CR10 65.9%67.6%CR10 20132022 1961 2022 14.0%3995 2022 42%2013 2008 2016 32.0%34.0%36.0%38.0%40.0%42.0%44.0%56.0%57.0%58.0%59.0%60.0%61.0%62.0%63.0%64.0%65.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022总收入CR10(左)总收入CR5(右)35.0%37.0%39.0%41.0%43.0%45.0%47.0%49.0%51.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%80.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022净利润CR10(左)净利润CR5(右)2009 1210 6 3 Wind 4 Wind 5 20132022 20132022 2022 20132022 5956.5 23,593.6 25.2%1191.2 8843.5 13.5%1961.1 14018.5 14.0%3995.38 9575.07 41.7%Wind 34.0%36.0%38.0%40.0%42.0%44.0%58.0%59.0%60.0%61.0%62.0%63.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022净资产CR10(左)净资产CR535.0%37.0%39.0%41.0%43.0%45.0%47.0%49.0%58.0%60.0%62.0%64.0%66.0%68.0%70.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022自有资产CR10(左)自有资产CR5 2009 1210 7=+CR10 60%CR10 71%63%20132022 CR10 61%62%1%1 6 7 Wind Wind=/8 9 Wind Wind=/1 2023 ROE PB 32.0%32.5%33.0%33.5%34.0%34.5%35.0%35.5%36.0%57.0%58.0%59.0%60.0%61.0%62.0%经纪业务收入CR10(左)经纪业务收入CR55.0%7.0%9.0%11.0%13.0%15.0%17.0%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022前五 前十 其他30.0%32.0%34.0%36.0%38.0%40.0%42.0%44.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%融出资金CR10(左)融出资金CR540.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022前五 前十 其他 2009 1210 8 10 Wind 1 2015 4 2023 4 2703/1405/2.2 29%6.8%2 2016 10“”3 A 20162021 1.44 1.52 5 0.08 11 33.0%34.0%35.0%36.0%37.0%38.0%39.0%40.0%57.0%58.0%59.0%60.0%61.0%62.0%63.0%64.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022客户资金CR10(左)客户资金CR55%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.00500.001,000.001,500.002,000.002,500.003,000.00年新增投资者数量(万人)投资者数量同比增速(右)2009 1210 9 12 Wind/2022 1.39%0.58%13 Wind 20132022 CR10 42%45%1 IPO 2 1.391.441.461.461.481.501.521.301.351.401.451.501.552015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021人均户数0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%2019 2020 2021 2022前十券商 前五券商 其他券商 2009 1210 10 14 Wind 3.2%10%20212022 223 189 2.87%3.16%2021/2022 11.9%/29.9%25.4%/23.7%13.7%/15.0%10.5%/14.2%15 20 20212022 Wind 1 2 2022 20 40.0%41.0%42.0%43.0%44.0%45.0%46.0%47.0%21.0%22.0%23.0%24.0%25.0%26.0%27.0%28.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022CR5(左)CR10(右)0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02021 分仓佣金(亿元)2022 分仓佣金(亿元)2021 分仓佣金收入占比(右)2022 分仓佣金收入占比(右)2009 1210 11 16 Wind 17 Wind 2022 67.4%29.1%3.5%+AUM 20092022 AUM 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022国盛证券 天风证券 长江证券0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022国盛证券 天风证券 长江证券 2009 1210 12 CR5 32%28%CR10 49%46%AUM 2 18 Wind 19 20202021 X Y Wind 1 5%15%15%2=1 20092022 CR10 58%47%CR10 63%35%20092023Q1 2.5pct 2.47pct 2.20pct 2.18pct 2.09pct 2.02pct 2.01pct 2 20.0%22.0%24.0%26.0%28.0%30.0%32.0%34.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%CR10(左)CR5-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0%50%100%150%200%250%2009 1210 13 14.8pct-6.46pct 4.86pct-5.43pct 3.03pct-2.76pct 20 21 Wind Wind 1 2021Q12023Q1 8.3%7.2%2 AUM AUM 22 ETF ETF ETF ETF 20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%2009Q42010Q42011Q42012Q42013Q42014Q42015Q42016Q42017Q42018Q42019Q42020Q42021Q42022Q4CR10(左)CR5(右)15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%2009Q42010Q42011Q42012Q42013Q42014Q42015Q42016Q42017Q42018Q42019Q42020Q42021Q42022Q4CR10(左)CR5(右)0%5%10%15%20%25%2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1债券型基金市占率 股混基市占率 2009 1210 14 1 ETF 2017 2023Q1 ETF 0.36 1.68+361%2.7 7.6+180%ETF 23 ETF Wind 2 ETF 20002021 ETF 0.9%27%2000 3 ETF ETF 24 Wind 3 ETF ETF 19972021 34.6%43.9%77.8%71.4%ETF 3 0.000.501.001.502.000.002.004.006.008.0010.002017/82017/112018/22018/52018/82018/112019/22019/52019/82019/112020/22020/52020/82020/112021/22021/52021/82021/112022/22022/52022/82022/112023/2股混型基金(万亿元,左)ETF(万亿元)0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.01995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021其他基金(万亿美元,左)ETF 规模(万亿美元,左)ETF 基金占比 2009 1210 15 25 26 Wind Wind 4 ETF 1990 5 20152022 CR10 59.0%70.9%CR5 36.4%51.7%20152022 IPO CR10 62.3%75.8%CR10 60.3%73.7%CR10 45.5%54.6%1 PE/VC 2 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%主动股票型基金平均费率 主动债券型基金平均费率0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%1997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021指数股票型基金平均费率 指数债券型基金平均费率 2009 1210 16 27 资料来源:Wind 28 IPO 29 资料来源:Wind 资料来源:Wind 30 资料来源:Wind 35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022投行业务CR10(左)投行业务CR530.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%IPO CR10(左)IPO CR5(右)30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%80.0%再融资 CR10(左)再融资 CR5(右)20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%55.0%60.0%65.0%企业债+公司债 CR10(左)企业债+公司债 CR5(右)2009 1210 17 1 1 ROE 2 ROE 3 ROE 2 ROE 1 2 3 2022 1.7+143%16.8%9.5 15.0%29.9%23.7%30.3%17.5%2009 1210 18 31 2022/12/31 16.4%1201.5 19.3%392.9 14.7%166.5 14.9%158.9 31.0%123.0 99.8%70.3 93.6%53.3 67.8%36.8 64.5%33.8 100.0%25.2 Wind Wind 1 APP APP 2 ROE ROE 2009 1210 19 2016 2017 2019 2019 Wind 2020 8 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 Choice 2022 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018-2021 2022 2022 2018 2023 2019 2019 2019 Wind 2020 8 2020 2021 2021 2022 Choice 2022 2022 2022 2023 2009 1210 20 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 21 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522