20230604_招商证券_建材行业定期报告:地方性地产新政出台弱需求预期待改善_24页.pdf
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725/0.68%308.80/0.3/100kg 1 P.O42.5/2/wind P.O42.5 3 P.O42.5/4 P.O42.5/200300400500600第1周第3 周第5周第7周第9周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周第49周第51周2014 年 2015年 2016年 2017年2018 年 2019年 2020年 2021年2022 年 2023年020040060080010001200140016001502002503003504004505005502016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/03水泥煤炭 价格差 动力煤价 格(右 轴)1502002503003504004505005506002009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/13 12 5 P.O42.5/6 P.O42.5/7 P.O42.5/8 P.O42.5/74.75%1.31pct 10 5 50%9%5 2051/5 25 103-4.8%2099/87-3.98%1502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/131502503504505506507502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/131502002503003504004505005506006502009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/131502002503003504004505005506002009/2/132009/9/132010/4/132010/11/132011/6/132012/1/132012/8/132013/3/132013/10/132014/5/132014/12/132015/7/132016/2/132016/9/132017/4/132017/11/132018/6/132019/1/132019/8/132020/3/132020/10/132021/5/132021/12/132022/7/132023/2/1301020304050607080902016/3/312016/6/302016/9/302016/12/312017/3/312017/6/302017/9/302017/12/312018/3/312018/6/302018/9/302018/12/312019/3/312019/6/302019/9/302019/12/312020/3/312020/6/302020/9/302020/12/312021/3/312021/6/302021/9/302021/12/312022/3/312022/6/302022/9/302022/12/312023/3/31 13 75%10/11/2021 2022 90.14%0.92%60.62 0.63 1.05%52.26 2.18 4%12 4 35%13+1+45%13+1+50%13 1+90%60-61 140015001600170018001900200021008月12日8月26日9月9日9月23日10月7 日10月21 日11月4 日11月18 日12月2 日12月16 日12月30 日1月13日1月27日2月10日2月24日3月10日3月24日4月7日华北 华东 华中华南 东北 西南西北 全国100015002000250030003500第1周第3周第5周第7周第9周第11周第13周第15周第17周第19周第21周第23周第25周第27周第29周第31周第33周第35周第37周第39周第41周第43周第45周第47周2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020 2021 2022 2023 14 12/13/Wind 2023 6 1 16.33-0.31%5 26-6 1 114.59+0.72%-4.94%2023 6 1 38970/-4%5 26-6 1 28.22-0.32%2023 6 1 79.67%-0.26 80.02%-0.76 5 26-6 1 79.95%+0.02 5 26-6 1 80.23%+0.08 14 6 2400tex 3800-4100/2400texSMC 4600-5200/2400tex 6600-7600/2400tex 4300-4500/2400tex 4500-4700/2000tex 4800-5600/050010001500200025003000350040002010/092011/032011/092012/032012/092013/032013/092014/032014/092015/032015/092016/032016/092017/032017/092018/032018/092019/032019/092020/032020/092021/032021/092022/032022/092023/03全国平均-400-200020040060080010001200140016002018/052018/072018/092018/112019/012019/032019/052019/072019/092019/112020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/0301000200030004000500060007000800090002009/042009/102010/042010/102011/042011/102012/042012/102013/042013/102014/042014/102015/042015/102016/042016/102017/042017/102018/042018/102019/042019/102020/042020/102021/042021/102022/042022/102023/04 15 7400-8000/3.4-3.5/PCB 15/16/17/18 本周国内池窑厂在产 产线 环比增加,实际供应 量短 期局部或有所减。6 1 104 699/9.65%2.95%3,5004,5005,5006,5007,5008,5009,5001 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 20233,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5001 月 2 月 3月 4 月 5 月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11 月 12 月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 20233,5005,5007,5009,50011,50013,50015,5001月 2月 3 月 4 月 5月 6月 7 月 8月 9 月 10月 11月 12月2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019 2020 2021 2022 202301020304050607080902017/112018/012018/032018/052018/072018/092018/112019/012019/032019/052019/072019/092019/112020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/03库存(万 吨)16 20/5 30 19 7 20 PVC PPR HDPE/21/Wind Wind 22/23 LNG/Wind Wind 01020304050607080901 月 2 月 3 月 4 月 5 月 6 月 7 月 8 月 9 月 10 月 11 月 12 月2018 年 2019 年 2020 年2021 年 2022 年 2023 年050001000015000200002015/032015/062015/092015/122016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/03PVC PPR HDPE05001000150020002500300035002023/2/312022/11/302022/8/312022/5/312022/2/282021/11/302021/8/312021/5/312021/2/282020/11/302020/8/312020/5/312020/2/292019/11/302019/8/312019/5/312019/2/282018/11/302018/8/312018/5/312018/2/282017/11/302017/8/312017/5/312017/2/282016/11/302016/8/312016/4/302016/1/312015/9/302015/4/302014/12/31国废均价010002000300040005000600070002014/052014/102015/032015/082016/012016/062016/112017/042017/092018/022018/072018/122019/052019/102020/032020/082021/012021/062021/112022/042022/092023/02全国均价 重交沥青建筑沥青 改性沥青01000200030004000500060007000800090002014/052014/102015/032015/082016/012016/062016/112017/042017/092018/022018/072018/122019/052019/102020/032020/082021/012021/062021/112022/042022/092023/02LNG价格 17 24/25/Wind Wind 1 0.55%0.18%0.95%2.60%0.79%0.62%0.13%-0.97%-1.30%-1.85%26 iFinD 2021 27 28 05000100001500020000250002018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/0405000100001500020000250003000035000400002012/042012/102013/042013/102014/042014/102015/042015/102016/042016/102017/042017/102018/042018/102019/042019/102020/042020/102021/042021/102022/042022/102023/0410%6%6%3%3%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-2%-2%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%传媒计算机通信有色金属房地产建筑装饰电子休闲服务轻工制造综合建筑材料汽车国防军工化工非银金融采掘银行钢铁纺织服装商业贸易公用事业交通运输机械设备食品饮料家用电器农林牧渔电气设备医药生物0.18%0.55%0.81%0.95%0.95%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%创业板指 上证综指 深证成指 中小板指 建材行业-1.85%-1.30%-0.97%0.13%0.62%0.79%2.60%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%水泥制品管材水泥制造耐火材料玻璃制造玻纤制造其他建材 18 iFinD iFinD 2021 2023 11 A 8.73 10.62 11.04 12.50 14.86 15.29 17.27 18.69 34.65 29 PE 2023 30 PE 2023 iFinD 2021 iFinD 2021 2 9.78%8.80%8.42%7.58%7.58%ST-11.53%-5.38%-4.52%-4.22%-4.18%2 1 22.69%16.53%48.72%2 12.19%15.80%43.85%3 8.52%15.29%43.29%4 6.48%13.93%40.47%5 6.43%10.91%35.02%6 6.16%9.22%34.42%7 5.60%8.34%30.38%8 5.49%8.00%28.09%9 4.85%6.89%27.85%10 4.51%5.72%22.55%11 4.49%5.48%22.52%12 4.48%5.46%15.84%13 4.46%5.43%15.04%14 4.33%5.21%14.42%15 4.04%5.05%14.20%16 4.02%4.77%14.05%17 3.74%4.66%12.76%18 3.19%4.42%12.34%19 3.18%3.48%11.43%20 2.82%3.27%10.74%21 2.49%3.03%10.66%22 2.11%2.96%10.37%51 42 37 32 32 31 26 26 25 20 19 19 18 17 17 16 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 0102030405060综合计算机国防军工社会服务电子美容护理传媒食品饮料医药生物机械设备商贸零售汽车通信农林牧渔电力设备轻工制造公用事业环保纺织服装交通运输基础化工家用电器非银金融钢铁有色金属建筑材料房地产石油石化建筑装饰煤炭银行8.7 10.6 11.0 12.5 14.9 15.3 17.3 18.7 34.7 0510152025303540水泥制造玻纤制造玻璃制造水泥制品其他建材耐火材料管材防水材料涂料 19 23 1.86%2.95%10.33%24 1.84%2.46%9.56%25 1.65%2.41%9.56%26 1.63%2.31%6.93%27 1.62%2.27%5.73%28 1.49%2.27%4.84%29 A 1.45%2.11%4.63%30 1.20%1.94%4.05%31 1.13%1.77%3.98%32 1.13%1.27%3.94%33 1.07%0.95%3.70%34 1.04%0.92%3.56%35 1.02%0.91%3.47%36 1.01%0.77%2.65%37 0.93%0.63%2.18%38 0.91%0.62%1.21%39 0.87%0.56%1.16%40 0.78%0.43%0.85%41 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ST-2.92%-9.39%-18.01%85-3.64%-9.60%-18.18%86-3.72%-10.95%-18.29%87-3.91%-11.03%-18.57%88-4.18%-11.93%-18.75%89-4.26%-12.60%-19.12%90-4.76%ST-12.71%-20.41%91-5.00%-13.63%-21.78%92 ST-5.50%-13.66%-22.12%93-5.66%-14.77%-22.53%94-7.32%-14.84%-31.02%95-7.65%-15.01%ST-31.94%96-9.28%-15.43%-35.51%97-12.27%-17.05%-37.32%98-13.08%ST-27.19%ST-54.10%Wind 1 2022 0.03/11.95%0.37%2022 0.03 4252.01 11.95%0.37%2 625.00 625.00 0.54%8820.87 7.60%3 2022 0.034/15.80%0.93%2022 2022 12 31 11.90 10 0.34 0.40 15.80%0.93%4 2.75/5 A 2.75/5 6.65 21 5 1.82 1 2.75 1.82 2.42 30%6 2023 5 31 2023 5 31 7 2022 0.15/88.77%4.07%2022 14.45 0.15 2.17 88.77%4.07%8 1529.68 5850.00 5850.00 5.20%1529.68 1.36%2023 6 6 12 9 5%1%5%5%2023 5 31 216.50 1.0023%1079.99 4.99%5%10 2022 6.55/10 35.28%2.93%2022 2022 12 31 16.90 10 6.55 11.07 35.28%2.93%11 2022 0.268 2022 2022 2022 5.26/4.992/4.20/3.932/12 2022 0.80/10 27.90%0.69%2022 12 31 2.31 10 0.80 1848 27.90%0.69%13 2020 3.11 15.97%2020 6 4 3.11 2023 6 5 15.97%19.48 22 14 46.14 46.14 0.07%184.57 0.28%46.14 1,38.43 15 812 1%2023 2 15 2023 5 30 812 1.13%18.00%16.87%16 1 2022 5 30 1 2023 5 29 17 0.3 0.3 18 2022 5.00/10 94.78%5.08%2022 8.44 10 5.00 4.22 94.78%5.08%19 2022 0.15/10 10.34%0.28%2022 12 31 5.03 10 0.15 754.76 10.34%0.28%20 ST 1,640 2023 6 30 10 2023 7 1 10 1,640 3.80%21 2023 38 2023 17 38 272,714 100%70%50%22 1.48 澋 23 澋 1.48 23 2022 8.00/10 69.56%4.36%2022 5.06 10 8.00 4.05 69.56%4.36%24 2017 1 2019 2019 2020 2021 2021 7 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%