20230602_华创证券_基础化工行业国企改革+“中特估”系列报告之二：步入国企改革深水区两化巨舰如何远航_33页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 06 02+2021+1 2 S0360522050001 S0360522100004 S0360522080004%()459 0.06()44,331.10 4.78()35,292.25 5.03%1M 6M 12M-4.1%-14.8%-17.8%1.4%-12.5%-11.0%+2023-05-12-18%-7%4%15%22/06 22/08 22/10 23/01 23/03 23/062022-06-012023-06-01 300 +2009 1210 1 2 3 1ZCXwPsPpMrQoQtQtOoRqR8O9RbRsQnNtRsReRqQtNlOoOpN7NqRrMwMnPrMMYmMtR+2009 1210 3.6.6“”.8.9.11 1.12 2.12 3.12.13.13.15.17.18.18.21 PTG.23.25.26.26 TDI PC 28.30 +2009 1210 4 1.6 2 2015.7 3 2015.7 4 2016-2020.7 5 2010-2020.8 6 2010-2020.8 7.8 8.9 9 2010-2020.10 10 2010-2020.10 11.10 12.11 13.11 14 A.13 15.13 16.14 17 2013-23Q1.14 18 2013-23Q1.14 19 2022.15 20.15 21.15 22.16 23 2017-23Q1.16 24 2017-23Q1.16 25.16 26 2021-2022.16 27.17 28 2015-23Q1.18 29 2015-23Q1.18 30.18 31“3+1”.20 32.20 33 2018-2022.21 +2009 1210 5 34 2018-2022.21 35.22 36 2013-23Q1.23 37 2013-23Q1.23 38 2019.23 39.24 40 2018-23Q1.24 41 2018-23Q1.24 42.25 43 2018-23Q1.25 44 2018-23Q1.25 45.26 46.27 47 2018-23Q1.27 48 2018-23Q1.27 49 2021.28 50.28 51 2013-23Q1.29 52 2013-23Q1.29 53 2021.29 +2009 1210 6 2015 11 2016 1 2015 12 2017 12 2018 12 2016 2016 2 25270 2020 5 21431 2020 +2009 1210 7 2 2015 3 2015 W in d 2016-2020 500 4 4 2016-2020 2016 12 20(Linde)(Praxair)2017 6 8 430 2017 8 31 2018 6 7 2018 6 7 630 2018 8 22 22.5 2018 8 PTA PET 2019 12 18 2020 6 14 Sabic(Sabic)691 2020 9 30 DSM 16.1 RFM|2016-2 0 2 1 2020 2021 19000200002100022000230002400025000260002015/2/12015/8/12016/2/12016/8/12017/2/12017/8/12018/2/12018/8/12019/2/12019/8/12020/2/12020/8/12021/2/12021/8/12022/2/12022/8/12023/2/1 300035004000450050005500600065007000(CCPI)+2009 1210 8 2021 3 31 1950 70 2020 635.44 500 109 5 2010-2020 6 2010-2020 7-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%010020030040050060070080090010002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020%-2024681012142010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 +2009 1210 9 8 9 32 10 8.73 1500/100/80/17 602 766 6 393 512.27 80%16 40 70 PPD RT TMQ 50 5 33 140 ABS()2004-2020 604.92 500 164 +2009 1210 10 9 2010-2020 10 2010-2020 11 PBT 5 2000 50/DCC 50/CPP 120 800 120 5000 6000 1200 70%90%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%01002003004005006007008002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020%-25-20-15-10-5052010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 +2009 1210 11 12 PBT 5 2000 50/DCC 50/CPP 120 800 120 5000 6000 1200 70%90%16 150 2021 1.5 1.1 2022 500 31 13 SUV +2009 1210 12 16 5A+1 2020 Syngenta A.G.100%74.02%A/+”2 1 2 3 +2009 1210 13 14 A PE(TTM)PE PB(MRQ)2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 600486.SH 266.51 16.21 18.66 21.17 24.47 14.29 12.59 10.89 2.87 000553.SZ A 198.03 74.73 8.26 10.37 12.93 23.97 19.10 15.31 0.86 600299.SH 216.97 26.43 14.71 17.12 19.14 14.75 12.68 11.34 1.45 600500.SH 213.70 20.76 10.93 17.75 21.89 19.56 12.04 9.76 1.18 000830.SZ 203.61 9.44 28.91 34.45 39.08 7.04 5.91 5.21 1.15 600378.SH 348.00 29.74 12.94 15.73 18.36 26.90 22.13 18.95 4.12 600230.SH 60.75 15.41 9.61 9.79 6.32 6.20 1.51 000698.SZ 33.85-1.92 1.79 600469.SH 41.94 23.73 1.40 Wind PE PB 2023/5/26 1999 2002 2019 12 15/2022 30,000 100%20,000 50%15,225 100%2 0 2 2 +2009 1210 14 16/1500 2023 3 9 2.5 200 100 5000 250 500 噁 100 500 500 3000 2500 1500 15650 2000 2000 3000 7000 66,133 2016 2016-2022 29.29 158.11 32.45%4.39 17.94 26.44%2023 17 2013-23Q1 18 2013-23Q1 W in d W in d 2002 2022 12 31-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%020406080100120140160180%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02468101214161820%+2009 1210 15 228 350.88 52.30/1.13%282.88 0.91%19 2022 1 2023 ROE 16.3%75 2 2021 2023 15%75 3 2023 46.62%1 2024 ROE 16.3%75 2 2021 2024 15%75 3 2024 46.61%1 2025 ROE 17.75%75 2 2021 2025 15%75 3 2025 46.60%-2021 1 2 3 20 21 W in d 100+1945 1952 1997 2014 2011 010203040506070802020 2021 2022 2023E 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021 2022 2023E%+2009 1210 16 60 100 22/2022/56,178 79%13,000 18,161 68%5,500 74,724 54%5,500 2018-2022 256.15 373.82 9.91%23 2017-23Q1 24 2017-23Q1 W in d W in d 25 26 2021-2022 W in d-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003504002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0510152025302018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%0510152025302020 2021 2022 2023E-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2021 2022 2023E%+2009 1210 17 2021 12 2022 1938 1997 2004 2 20/PVC 20/13/30/PVC 27 20/78.00%20/70.00%30/69.30%13/100.00%PVC PVC 2020-2022 2023Q1 11.47 21.13%-1.05 +2009 1210 18 28 2015-23Q1 29 2015-23Q1 W in d W in d 2022 12 24/10.98 PO EO SM 3+1 13 12 1 12 30 2 0 2 2 ES G-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%020406080100120140%-2000%-1500%-1000%-500%0%500%-20-15-10-505%+2009 1210 19 3/1.85/2024 5500/2022 2500/PVDF/LED 8600/5/10/2023 1.5/2.5/2025 10 1.2/80 CO 2 CCS +2009 1210 20 31 3+1 2 0 2 2 ES G 32/30000 18500 2024.12 1500 PVDF 2500 8600 15000 25000 2025.10 12000 50000 100000 2023.12 2022 90.7+22.1%2018-2022 CAGR 21.3%11.7+30.7%2018-2022 CAGR 22.1%+2009 1210 21 33 2018-2022 34 2018-2022 W in d W in d 5 10 2021 2022-2025 100%2023 2 100%35 37.71/4 1 2022Q1-Q3 80.34 9.81 2021 1998 2000 2003 2021 ABS 66 41.847.054.274.290.70%10%20%30%40%0.020.040.060.080.0100.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022营 业总收 入（亿 元）增 长率（右轴）5.3 5.36.58.911.7-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022归 母净利 润（亿 元）增 长率（右轴）+2009 1210 22 35/25 PDH 60 23Q1 65 A 24 24 23Q1 40 23Q2 6 8 3 3 1.5 36 35 ABS ABS 17 ABS 2.4 5500 2500 2024 66 66 4 2.5 5 19 19.2 23Q3 2 1 0.9 GWh 3000 2022 2022 874.49+8%13.11-35%53%8.33 23Q1 1.13 +2009 1210 23 36 2013-23Q1 37 2013-23Q1 W in d W in d 2 1 1 2019 12 262 3.16/5916 2.18%2022 3 2 2022 9 17 8292 4497 49.75 38 2019 1 2020 EOE 26.5%75 2 2020 2016-2018 89%75 3 2020 EVA 1 2021 EOE 26.7%75 2 2021 2016-2018 110%75 3 2021 EVA 1 2022 EOE 27.0%75 2 2022 2016-2018 133%75 3 2022 EVA PTG 1965 140 VOLVO 2019 600/20/50/-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%010020030040050060070080090010002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-505101520252013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 +2009 1210 24 39/600 60.17%20 99.00%8 2024/6/30 50 34.20%2021 154.22%2022 49.88 10.25%0.85 177.52%2023 12.71 20.71%0.51 223.62%2023 2022 76 42 32%18%3%40 2018-23Q1 41 2018-23Q1 W in d W in d PTG 2015 PTG 2020 2022 52%38%10%PTG PTG PTG PTG 4.0 PRO-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%-400%-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%-1.5-1-0.500.511.522.52018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%+2009 1210 25 PTG 80 2006 A 1 2 3 42/35 35 70 A 0.5 2022 A 23Q1 23Q1 31.52 8.83%0.01 99.65%A 43 2018-23Q1 44 2018-23Q1 W in d W in d 2023 3-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0204060801001201401602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%02468101214162018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%+2009 1210 26 2022 7 7 375 1998 10 2010 20 2013 10 6 2020 6 6.01%55%2023Q1 36.94%45 2022 40 91.14%30 6 40 79.17%30 40 98.94%30 40 72.19%75 106.13%+2009 1210 27 46 2023 1 23Q1 65.81 3.78%3.22 719.06%12.82%4.01PCT 47 2018-23Q1 48 2018-23Q1 W in d W in d 2022 11 4.92 5.86 894.72 6.35 32.92%2022 1 2021 2022 6 2023 4 263 9.49/1535.7 0.81%76 8.00/-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%051015202530354045502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%+2009 1210 28 294.20 0.15%49 2021 1 2020 2022 61%,75 2 2022 ROE 10.63%75 3 2022 EVA EVA0 1 2020 2023 42%,75 2 2023 ROE 11.03%75 3 2023 EVA EVA0 1 2020 2024 43%,75 2 2024 ROE 14.77%75 3 2024 EVA EVA0 TDI PC TDI PC 1973 13 2000 2006 2021 TDI PC TDI TDI TDI PC PC PC PC 50/TDI 15 40 PC 10 10 16-A 20-13.5 30 1.2-TDI PC A 2020 TDI 2022 49.14+106%4.20+91%PC 10 40 TDI +2009 1210 29 51 2013-23Q1 52 2013-23Q1 W in d W in d 2021 4 2020 158 5.66/877 2.13%53 2021 1 2021 10.0%75 2 2021 2019 15.0%75 3 2021 EVA 2021 1 2022 10.0%75 2 2022 2019 16.0%75 3 2022 EVA 2022 1 2023 10.5%75 2 2023 2019 16.0%75 3 2023 EVA 2023-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050602013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%-10-50510152013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 +2009 1210 30 1.2.3.4.+2009 1210 31 4 6 2022 2019“”2021“”2 2022 2 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 +2009 1210 32 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 +2009 1210 33 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
