20230529_国金证券_基础化工行业证券研究报告：POE系列报告（二）三大工艺壁垒国产化突破进行时_18页.pdf
1 POE POE POE-90-POE POE POE POE-90%POE POE POE CGC CGC CGC MAO-POE-1-C4 1-C8 POE POE 1-1-1-Sasol 3 1000-700 1-1-POE NOVA LG SABIC SSNC POE NOVA LLDPE POE POE 270 POE POE POE-POE POE POE POE 2 POE-.4 1 POE.4 1.1 Ziegler-Natta POE.4 1.2.4 1.3.6 1.4.7 2-1-.7 2.1-POE.7 2.2 1-.8 3 POE.11 POE.12 2.1 POE.12 2.2 1-POE.13 2.3 POE.14 2.4 EVA POE.14 2.5.15.15 1 Ziegler-Natta.4 2 Ziegler-Natta PP.4 3.6 4.6 5 POE.6 6.6 7-.7 8 C4 C8 POE.8 9 LG C4 C8 POE.8 10.9 11.9 12 MTO.9 1ZFUvMtOmPqRoQpMrMrOrQ6MaO7NtRrRnPmPiNnNtOfQpMpPaQqQyQuOoNsOuOmMwO 3 13 1-.10 14 1-.11 15 POE-.11 16 POE.12 17.12 18 POE.13 19-.13 20.14 21 1-POE.14 22.14 23.14 24 EVA/.15 25 EVA.15 26.15 4 1 POE 1.1 Ziegler-Natta POE Ziegler-Natta Ziegler-Natta IV-VIIIB Ti V Cr Ni I-IIIA-TiCl3-Al(C2H5)3 Ziegler-Natta-1 Ziegler-Natta Ziegler-Natta 50 Karl Ziegler Giulio Natta Montell Ziegler-Natta 60 Z-N 90%2 Ziegler-Natta PP kg PP/g cat%-TiCl3 0.33AlCl3+DEAC 0.8-1.2 90-94-TiCl3/Ether+DEAC 10-15 94-97 TiCl4/Ester/MgCl2+AlR3/Ester 15-30 90-95 TiCl4/Diester/MgCl2+TEA/Silane 30-60 95-99 TiCl4/Diether/MgCl2+TEA/Silane 80-120 95-99 PP Monte Carlo Ziegler-Natta-Z-N Z-N-(),Ziegler-Natta,1.2 20 50 80 MAO 5 1991 mLLDPE Exact 1993 POE Z-N Z-N Z-N 1 Z-N 2 105 kg/g Z-N 3-4 Cp 5 POE POE HDPE LDPE LLDPE(ULDPE)(VLDPE)CGC POE CGC CGC CGC 1991 Exxpol 1992 CGC Z-N CGC-GCG CGC POE 6 3 4 Development of Constrained Geometry Complexes of Group 4 and 5 Metals/1.3 POE CGC 1988/1-1993 CGC Insite POE LG SK 2011 CGC 20 5 POE CGC Exxpol SSNC SK LG CGC Exxpol/CGC CGC 6 18 12 20 4 20 8 21 1 22 1 7 1.4 1 AlMe3 AlEt3 AlBu3 2 MAO EAO IBAO TBAO 3 B(C6F5 4 MAO EAO IBAO TBAO MAO MAO MAO MAO Albemarle Witco Akzo Nobel MAO MAO CGC 2-1-2.1-POE-linear alpha olefin LAO C4+C4C8 LAO 1-1-1-HDPE LLDPE POE C6C30 LAO C8C12 LAO 1-1-1-PAO C12C16 LAO 7-C4C8 HDPE LLDPE POE C8C12-PAO C12C16 C18+-1-C8 1-C4 POE C8 POE LG C8 POE C4 POE EPDM/EVA/C8 POE POE POE C8 POE 8658 8660 8669 8 8 C4 C8 POE-g/cm3 g/10 min-100%MPa 1%MPa Kn/m-A 1 ohms cm 8658 0.902 30 6.7 72.6 79.1 8660 0.872 4.8 2.3 10.9 37.1 66-53 72 1.0E+15 8669 0.873 14 2.85 45.7 40.2 68-53 76 1.0E+15 8680 0.872 5 1.65 6.7 27.6 67-46 65 1.0E+15 8688 0.873 14 1.62 6.2 27.6 66-43 67 1.0E+15 9 LG C4 C8 POE-g/cm3 g/10 min MPa 1%MPa A Kn/m LC160 0.863 0.5 46 6.1 10 57 33-56 LC161 0.868 0.5 54 9.4 13 67 54-53 LC760 0.863 13 41 1.3 8 48 26-55 LC170 0.870 1.1 58 9.5 14 71 40-53 LC370 0.870 3 57 8 14 70 39-55 LC670 0.870 5 58 5.5 13 70 38-55 LC770 0.870 15 58 3.2 13 65 29-55 LC180 0.885 1.2 73 28 30 86 58-45 LC190 0.890 0.5 80 36 41 87 78-38 LC100 0.903 1.2 96 38 83 91 87-31 LL600 0.901 6.5 90 21 53 90 85-38 LL700 0.901 10 90 18.5 47 90 83-38 LC165 0.862 0.5 30 2.2 9 43 17-58 LC168 0.862 1.2 32 1.8 8 46 17-57 LC565 0.865 5 36 1.8 8 54 20-54 LC175 0.870 1.1 42 4.4 12 63 34-51 LC375 0.875 3 56 6.3 13 70 32-50 LC185 0.885 1.2 69 14.2 23 85 59-39 LG 2.2 1-1-1-Chevron-Phillip Ziegler BP Amoco Ziegler Shell SHOP Idemitsu UOP Union Carbide linear-1 Sabic-Sabic Alpha Select Dupont Versipol SHOP BP Amoco 1-Idemitsu 1-1-1-Sablin AlphaSelect Versipol 9 10 Chevron-Phillip Ziegler BP Amoco Ziegler Shell SHOP Idemitsu UOP&Union Carbide linear-1 Sabic-Sabic Alpha Select Dupont Versipol-11 Chevron Phillips BP Amoco()Amoco()Shell Idemitsu(C4)14 12 0 7-14 14.9(C6-C10)41 54 77 25-41 42.8(C12-C14)19 25 21 15-18 28(C16-C18)12 7 21 11-15 11(C20+)14 2 2 14-42 14.3 1-1-1-Chevron-Phillips 2007 1-1-94%2011 Sasol 1 70%Sasol 1-/1-/1-TEA TMA IBAO MAO C4 C4 1-C4 C4 MTO,(FCC),(MTO),1-2-,90%,1-2-,12 MTO/%1-2-/FCC 13 28 15 10 34 14 11 22 2 1 50 MTO 20-26 65-70 2-4 4 0.2 1-LLDPE HDPE 1-1-10 2020 1-300 1-NPC TPC 1-21 1-93.5 23 105.4 C6 Phillips Amoco SABIC Chevron-Phillips/97%1-2007 1-1-PE 1-130 Phillips Sasol Shell 1-13 1-Phillips 8.7 10 35.5 54.2 Sasol 21 5 26 Shell 3 15 18 Ineos 7.5 4.5 12 3.4 NKNH 4 3 1 1 5 0.5 2 5 3/-1/-1 22 1-300 1-130+1-C8 1-1-66%2022 1-C4 C20 1-20-30 1-Sasol 2014 10/Sasol MAO 11 MAO 14 1-1-Chevron-Phillips Spolana 13.60%Ineos BP Amoco 21.70%SHOP Shell Phillips UCC 11.50%Idemitsu C6C10 40 Sasol 70%1-1-,1-2021-23 3 1000-700 1-300 1-1-15 POE-POE-40 20 POE 9.2 5 650 1-2 1-10 1000 1-700 1-300 40 40 POE 35-50 800 1-30 POE 20-40 20 POE 30-20 5 3 1-2 1-40 2 20/POE/3 POE/-/-EPR EPDM/EVA NOVA LG SABIC SSNC Insite Exxpol POE Insite Dowlex CGC-1-Exxpol-/NOVA Sclairtech LLDPE 1-2020 5 1 12 PE LF231 8 LLDPE 1-PE POE POE 270 POE POE POE-16 POE 2 20 21 24 20 10 23 3 1,000-2 20 22 8 2 20 POE 35-2 50 22 9 800 POE POE 50 22 11 30 POE 20-2 20 22 8 20 POE 3 5 21 8 5 POE 23 3 25 3 5 20 5 5 POE 2025 40 22 12 40 POE 30-20 POE 30-10 10 10 2021 5 10 POE 2 20 22 5 270 2.1 POE POE 40 2 POE 19 12-20 POE 2021 8 1000 2022 12 POE 2 20 2024 10 POE 17 120 LDPE 25 POE 2 20 20 55 3/40 176 2024 10 13 POE-18 POE-PCPN 2021 12-2022 1 PNNP 2022 5-2022 5 1-2022 6 2022 7 2022 7 2022 11 Si-PCCP 2022 12 2018 12 2020 4 2020 8 2021 1 2022 1 2022 1 2022 1 2022 5 2022 8 2.2 1-POE-C8 POE 18-1-22 6 1000/-700 1-300 1-23 3 10-POE-23 24 19-2018 11 2021 12 2022 5 1-POE 1-1-14 POE 1-4000/POE 20 21 1-POE Bloomberg 2.3 POE-225 IPO 475-2022 1.14 49.4%12.6%25.7%22 23 POE POE 22 12 98.68 2 20 POE POE E-23 1 1412.9 POE POE 23 4 POE 24 POE 25 POE 7 2.4 EVA POE EVA 30 EVA EVA EVA 2022 EVA 34 65.7 41.9%010203040506070800%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022乙烯成本占比 1-辛烯成本占比0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0204060801001201401602018 2019 2020 2021 2022营业收入（百万元）毛利率（%）0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 15 EVA EVA 75 2024 24 EVA/25 EVA POE 22 9 800/POE 800 1-50 POE 22 11 97.3 30 POE 20-2 EVA POE 2.5 2012 12-18 19-20 21 23 26 2022 1 2022 1 30 21 22 23Q1 0.04 0.13 0.02 22 5 30 13000-19000/8000-9500/87%22 23 POE POE POE POE POE 05000100001500020000250003000035000光伏级EVA 出厂价（元/吨）41%41%42%42%43%43%44%44%45%6,3006,3506,4006,4506,5006,5506,6002021 2022营业收入（百万元）毛利率（%）16 POE POE POE 1-/1-POE POE N POE POE POE POE POE 17 3 6 15%3 6 5%15%3 6-5%5%3 6 5%18 C3(C3 021-60753903 021-61038200 201204 1088 7 010-85950438 100005 26 8 0755-83831378 0755-83830558 518000 2028 18 1806
