2009 1210 2023 05 25 ChatGPT AI ChatGPT AI Microsoft 365 Copilot Meta LLaMA SAM AI AI AI AI GPT-4 AI OpenAI AI and Compute 2012 AI 3-4 AI 30 GPU HBM AI AI CPU GPU FPGA TPU VPU ASIC GPU AI AI 90%IDC 2021H1 GPU 2025 20%AI“”HBM DRAM AI AI+AI WSTS AI 2019 110 2025 726 CAGR 37%AI+AI AI AI AI 290/370 H100 A100 AI AI AI/0755-82755859 S0360517100004 S0360521120002%()430 0.06()71,056.10 7.60()50,002.21 7.05%1M 6M 12M-7.6%2.1%-0.7%-4.7%-1.6%2.8%IC 2023-05-19 AI 2023-04-06 DISCO 2023-03-01-11%-1%10%21%22/05 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/03 23/052022-05-242023-05-24 300 2009 1210 AI ChatGPT/ChatGPT AI AI/AI AI-AI ChatGPT AI/AI/AI AI Intel H100 A100 AI/XVEVxOqNtQqRoQoNmRsNqR8OaO7NmOnNoMoNiNrRnQlOpNtO7NrQpMMYrNvNuOnPmP 2009 1210 3 ChatGPT AI.6 ChatGPT AIGC.6 AI.8 AI.14 AI.17 AI.17“+”.18 1 AI.19 2 AI.20 AI.22.24 CPU DCU.24 CPU.25 AI.26 SoC WiFi-6/.26 DRAM.27/.28 AI.28 AI.29.29 2009 1210 4 1 ChatGPT.6 2 GPT.6 3 GPT-4.7 4.7 5 Copilot Excel.7 6 Copilot PPT.7 7 AIGC AI“”.8 8 2019-2026E.8 9 Ascend 910 AI.9 10 TIDEP-01004.9 11“-”.9 12.10 13 AI.10 14 CPU.11 15 Turing TU102 GPU.12 16 AMD RDNA3.12 17 FPGA.12 18 FPGA.12 19 ASIC.13 20 AI.13 21“”.14 22 HBM.14 23 GPU.15 24 CUDA.16 25 AMD INFINITY.16 26 AMD ROCm.16 27.17 28 2019-2025E AI.17 29 2018-2023E AI.17 30 2018-2023E AI/.18 31 2019-2025E AI.18 32 2021 AI.18 33 AI.19 2009 1210 5 34.19 35.19 36 paper AI.20 37 2017-2025E.20 38 2018-2027E.20 39 2020-2030E.21 40 2020-2030E.21 41 AI.21 42 2020-2026E.22 43.22 44 2019-2025.22 45 2022Q4 GPU.23 46 AI.23 47.24 48 H100 A100.24 2009 1210 6 ChatGPT AI ChatGPT AIGC ChatGPT OpenAI ChatGPT 2022 11 GPT-3.5 RLHF ChatGPT 100 2023 1 1 ChatGPT GPT-4 2023 3 14 OpenAI GPT-4 GPT-3.5 GPT-4 GPT-4 GPT-4 GPT-4 2 GPT 2018 6 2019 2 2020 5 2022 1 2023 3 1.17 15 1750 1750 10 100 5GB 40GB 45TB 12 48 96 512 1024 2048 4096 8192/32768 NLP OpenAI 0102030405060708090ChatGPT TikTok Instagram Pinterest Spotify Telegram Uber GoogleTransalte1()2009 1210 7 3 GPT-4 4 OpenAI Nitish Srivastava&Ruslan Salakhutdinov Multimodal learning with deep boltzmann machines Microsoft 365 Copilot AI GPT AI OpenAI 2023 3 17 GPT-4 Microsoft 365 Copilot LLM Microsoft Graph Microsoft 365 PPTWord Excel PowerPoint Outlook Teams AI Meta AI 2023 2 Meta LLaMA 4 SAM AI AI 5 Copilot Excel 6 Copilot PPT GPT(AIGC)AI AI AI GAN(Generative adversarial networks)AIGC AI 2009 1210 8 Transformer Diffusion AIGC AIGC 7 AIGC AI AI AI AI OpenAI AI and Compute 2012 AI 3-4 AI 30 AI ChatGPT IDC 2022-2023 2022 268/(EFLOPS)2026 1271.4EFLOPS 52.3%18.5%8 2019-2026E IDC AI AI AI 31.775155.2268427640.7922.81271.402004006008001000120014002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E/EFLOPS 2009 1210 9 9 Ascend 910 AI 10 TIDEP-01004 STH“-”“-”AI GPU NPU CPU FPGA IoT AI CPU GPUDSP AI SoC 11-2009 1210 10 12 8TOPS 30TOPS 50 5TOPS 30TOPS 4 15 AI CPU GPU FPGA TPU VPU ASIC IDC 2021 AI GPU 90%ASIC FPGA NPU GPU 10%2025 20%13 AI CPU GPU FPGA 6 ASIC 1 CPU AI CPU CPU CPU AI AI CPU 2009 1210 11 CNN CPU SIMD AI 14 CPU Computer Science GCSE GURU GPU AI GPU 1 2 AI 3 AI GPU AI GPU GPU AI NVIDIA Tensor Core AMD Radeon VII AI GPU AI AI GPU GPU GPU GPU 2009 1210 12 15 Turing TU102 GPU 16 AMD RDNA3 HotHardware AI FPGA AI FPGA AI CPU+FPGA AI FPGA FPGA AI FPGA AI FPGA AI FPGA CPU GPU AI FPGA 17 FPGA 18 FPGA Digikey 2009 1210 13 ASIC ASIC AI 1 2 3 ASIC AI“4 IP IP ASIC FPGA SoC 19 ASIC eSilion 1 CPUGPUFPGAASIC 2 CPUGPUFPGAASIC 20 AI 2009 1210 14 AI UC Berkeley RISELab Transformer 240 GPU 2 2 FLOP AI AI AI GDDR 1GB NVIDIA AMD HBM HBM DRAM 3D DDR CPU/GPU HBM AI GDDR5 HBM GDDR5 6%3 21 22 HBM Amir Gholami AI and Memory Wall OneFlow AMD AI AI GPU 1999 GeForce 256 GPU 2010 AI Tesla GPU GPU Fermi Fermi Hopper 40nm 4nm 30 800 FP32 1.5TFLOPS 60TFLOPS 192.4 GB/s 3TB/s 2009 1210 15 23 GPU Fermi 2010 16 SM 32 CUDA Cores 512 CUDA Core GPU Cache GPU ECC GPU 40/28nm 30 Quadro 7000 Kepler 2012 15 SM 192+64 CUDA Core GPU Direct 28nm 71 K80 K40M Maxwell 2014 16 SM 4 32 CUDA+8 LD/ST Unit+8 SFU SM 128 SMM 28nm 80 M5000 M4000 Pascal 2016 GP102 60 SM 64 CUDA cores 32 DP core NVLink 160GB/s 16nm 153 P100 GTX 1080 P6000 Volta 2017 80 SM 32 FP64+64 INT32+64 FPT32+8 Tensor core NVLink2.0 Tensor Core 1.0 AI 12nm 211 V100 Titan V Turing 2018 72 SM 64 INT32+8 Tensor core Tensor Core 2.0 RT Core 1.0 12nm 186 T4 2080TI RTX 5000 Ampere 2020 A100 108 SM 64 FP32+64 INT32+32 FP64+4 Tensor core Tensor Core 3.0 RT Core 2.0 NVLink 3.0 MIG1.0 7nm 283 A100 A30 3090 Hopper 2022 132 SM 128 FP32+64 INT32+64 FP64+4 Tensor core Tensor Core 4.0 NVLink 4.0 MIG 2.0 4nm 800 H100 CSDN GPU+CUDA 2006 CUDA C+FORTRAN DirectCompute OpenACC GPU CUDA CUDA CUDA GPU ARM Grace CPU 2009 1210 16 24 CUDA AMD CPU INFINITY ROCm INFINITY AMD INFINITY 8 GPU CPU GPU ROCm AMD 2015 CUDA ROCm AMD INFINITY ROCm MI250X FP32 47.9TFLOPS 3276.8GB/s 25 AMD INFINITY 26 AMD ROCm AMD AMD infoQ ARM AI AI 2023 2025 CPU GPU Dedicated AI FPGA AI 2009 1210 17 27 STH AI AI AI AI IDC 2018 33ZB 2025 175ZB AI WSTS 2019 AI 110 2025 726 CAGR 37%AI 2018 61 2023 556 CAGR 56%28 2019-2025E AI 29 2018-2023E AI WSTS AI AI 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01002003004005006007008002019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E AI yoy%50%52%54%56%58%60%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E AI yoy%2009 1210 18 AI/2018 75.45%/24.55%2023 68.97%/31.03%AI 30 2018-2023E AI/31 2019-2025E AI IDC GPU AI GPU GPU AI IDC 2021 GPU AI 91.9%NPU ASIC FPGA 10%GPU 2025 GPU AI 20%32 2021 AI IDC+AI ChatGPT AI/AI 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E AI AI 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GPU,91.9%NPU,6.3%ASIC,1.5%FPGA,0.3%2009 1210 19 33 AI 1 AI ChatGPT OpenAI 2012 AI 3-4 2012 AI 30 ChatGPT 3640PF-days GPT-4 ChatGPT 34 35 A.Mehonic&A.J.Kenyon Brain-inspired computing needs a master plan AIGC 2023 GPU 3000-5000 AI ChatGPT-175B 375-625 8 A100 A100 GPU 3000-5000 A100 1 GPU 3000-5000 AI 2009 1210 20 36 paper AI AI AI AI AI Gartner 2021 3307 2025 6000 2022 4033 2027 18764 CAGR 36%37 2017-2025E 38 2018-2027E Gartner 2 AI 2020 91 IoT/16/38/37 2025 550 010002000300040005000600070002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025E 050001000015000200002018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2027E CAGR=36%CAGR=16%2009 1210 21 vCDN 39 2020-2030E 40 2020-2030E AI AI AI 41 AI/1 2 3 4 1-2-3 AR 4 1 2 1 2 3 Slam 4 1TOPs 18TOPs 420TOPs 204000TOPs L3L5 2,0005,000mAh 200,000500,000mAh SoC SoC SoC Server PCIE contains multiple SoC Chips IPC NVR/ARM cadence AI ICV Global intelligent driving forecast-2022 2021 L1 2/3 2026 94%L2 2-2.5TOPS L5 2000TOPS 0500100015002000250030002020 2025E 2030E 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2025E 2030EIoT 2009 1210 22 ASIC GPU 42 2020-2026E 43 ICV Global intelligent driving forecast-2022 AI AI IoT GSMA The mobile economy 2020 2020 2020 137 2025 245 CAGR 12.4%2020 45.3 2025 80.1 2020-2025 CAGR 12.1%AI 44 2019-2025 IoT Analytics GSMA AI AI Intel+JPR 2022Q4 GPU 82%Intel AMD 9%AI AI 0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026EL0 L1 L2 L3 L4-52-2.5 20-30200+2000+05001000150020002500L2 L3 L4 L5 TOPS 0501001502002503002019 2020 2025E 2009 1210 23 45 2022Q4 GPU JPR 46 AI AI IDC CPU GPU 75-90%GPU AI AI NVIDIA,82%AMD,9%INTEL,9%2009 1210 24 47 IDC AI A100 H100 2022 8 31 A100 H100 AI 48 H100 A100 AI/AI AI AI 290 370+370 Chiplet AI 256TOPS DCU CUDA AI CPU DCU CPU+DCU 2014 2022 8 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%基础型 高性能型 推理型 机器学习型CPU GPU 2009 1210 25 CPU DCU AMD X86+CPU 7000 5000 3000 DCU 2021 DCU 1 CPU 5G AIoT x86 CPU IDC 2021 391.1 250.9 CPU 30%-35%CPU 82 CPU IDC Intel AMD x86 CPU 95%CPU AI GPGPU ChatGPT AI+WSTS 2019 110 2025 726 CAGR 37%GPGPU AI AI GPGPU Intel 2021 DCU 1 CUDA 10%DCU 2 CPU CPU 2001 2008 2021 LoongISA LoongArch Loongnix LoongOS 1 2 3 2018-2021 2022 AI+CPU AI+CPU CPU Intel AMD Intel x86 Windows Wintel CPU CPU x86/AMD CPU AI LoongArch IP CPU IP GPU IP 2009 1210 26 PHY PHY IP CPU CPU CPU ETC AI AI 2016 IP&AI AI ChatGPT AI AI AI IDC 2022 35 2025 70/AI AI Intel H100 A100 290 370 220 IP SoC WiFi-6/SoC 2003 S/T/A/W/V SoC AI AI SoC ChatGPT CPU ChatGPT 2009 1210 27 iPhone 200 1288 pro ASP SoC Grand View Research 2021 3.3 AI/SoC WiFi/Wi-Fi Wi-Fi6 2 2 BT5.3 Wi-Fi6 Wi-Fi5 SoC IOT Wi-Fi ASP Wi-Fi5 Jeep SoC DRAM AI 2012 AI DDR 2021 DRAM DRAM 2022 DDR3L JEDEC 2133/1866Mbps 2Gb/4Gb DRAM DDR4 LPDDR3 LPDDR4 1Xnm 19nm 17nm 1Gb8Gb NOR Flash 512Kb 2Gb SPI NOR Flash 2023 4 GD25/55 SPI NOR Flash GD5F SPI NAND Flash 1 iPolicy Networks Inc.2022 10.29 12.7%9.5%2022 929 2022 98 DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM DRAM 2009 1210 28 DRAM DRAM/&2005 MPU 2020 ISSI ISSI ADAS SRAM DRAM NOR Flash 2021 Delphi ADAS/L2 2.0-2.5 TOPS L3 20-30 TOPS L4-L5 2000 TOPS 2025 24%82 AI IOT AI 5G IPC/NVR/IOT MPU IC Insights 2020 MPU 175 2024 237 AI EMS sDBG 30um 8D/16D/&SK DRAM DDR Q1 23Q2 23Q1 2009 1210 29 AI HBM AIGC HBM SK HBM 6.4Gbps 1TB/s DRAM AI HBM TSV SiP bumping FCBGA SSD 32D AI 1999 SSD FORESEE Lexar()UFS eMMC AEC-Q100-40-105 TrendForce 2023 1443 AI 20222026 10.8%AI AI SSD SSD PCIe 4.0 Longsys ORCA 4836 NVMe SSD Longsys UNCIA 3836 SATA 3.2 SSD SiP Lexar SSD Omdia(IHS Markit)2020 Lexar Lexar/1 2 3 2009 1210 30 2019 2016 2017 3 2020 2019 2021 2021 1 2022 2022 7 9 2022 2009 1210 31 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 32(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522