20230523_东方证券_食品饮料行业深度报告：白酒产业周期研究之二温和复苏下的结构性分化_19页.pdf
|M2 23 CPI 2.1%2023 M2 12%23 4%2.70(yoy+162.4%)462.1%508.0%2.74(yoy+70.8%)1480.6(yoy+128.9%)19 2019 20%15%1935(600519)(000568)(002304)(600559)/2023 05 23 S0860517090002 021-63325888*6079 S0860519080001 021-63325888*7524 S0860521070003 2023-05-14 2023-03-31 2022-04-14 EPS PE 22 23E 24E 22 23E 24E 600519 1746.00 49.93 58.11 67.57 34.97 30.05 25.84 000568 224.00 7.04 8.84 10.88 31.81 25.35 20.60 002304 146.29 6.22 7.52 8.99 23.51 19.46 16.27 600559 30.79 0.77 0.84 1.20 39.78 36.82 25.63.2.5 1.1.5 1.2.5 1.3.7 1.4.9.11 2.1.11 2.2.13 2.3.13.16.17 ZXFUwPsPmPqRtNoNtOpQmNbRdN9PoMqQmOpMkPmMrMjMoMsO6MrRyQMYqMpNvPtPnN 3 1 CPI%.5 2.5 3 M2%.5 4 LPR.5 5.6 6.6 7 30.7 8 30.7 9.7 10.7 11.7 12%.8 13.8 14.8 15.8 16%.9 17 16-24%.9 18.9 19%.10 20 5A/.10 21.10 22.10 23.10 24.10 25.11 26.11 27()/M2().11 28()/().11 29.12 30.12 31+.12 32 K.13 33 PE TTM.15 34.15 4 35.15 36.16 37.16 38 884705.WI.16 39 884705.WI.16 1.6 2.14 3.14 5 M2 1.1 2023 CPI 4 CPI 0.10%2023 M2 12%22 12 23 3 5 LPR 4.3%2022 12 2023 1 CPI%2 Wind Wind 3 M2%4 LPR Wind Wind 1.2-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.002017/1/312017/5/312017/9/302018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/31:CPI:-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.002017/1/312017/5/312017/9/302018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/31:%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002017/2/282017/6/302017/10/312018/2/282018/6/302018/10/312019/2/282019/6/302019/10/312020/2/292020/6/302020/10/312021/2/282021/6/302021/10/312022/2/282022/6/302022/10/312023/2/28:M2:44.24.44.64.850.005.0010.0015.0020.002018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/31:(,%)LPR(5,%,)6 2022 Q4 1 2022/10 22 10 5 5 5 2.6%3.1%2022/11 16 2022/11 2500 REITs 2023 111 160 2023/03 2023/03 REITs REITs REITs 2023/03 5 6 Wind Wind 23 3 1.35pct 30-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.00%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00%7 7 30 8 30 Wind Wind 2023 3 REITs 9 Wind 1.3 2 2021 2022 4.9%5.1%23 1-3 5%4 4.7%10 11 050010001500200025002020/1/312020/3/312020/5/312020/7/312020/9/302020/11/302021/1/312021/3/312021/5/312021/7/312021/9/302021/11/302022/1/312022/3/312022/5/312022/7/312022/9/302022/11/302023/1/312023/3/3130-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%2023/1/12023/1/92023/1/172023/1/252023/2/22023/2/102023/2/182023/2/262023/3/62023/3/142023/3/222023/3/302023/4/72023/4/152023/4/232023/5/12023/5/92023/5/17-100%-50%0%50%100%150%02004006008001,000()8 Wind Wind 23 2 23 2 3 4 18.8%3.9%5.6%2023 2 3 4 11%6%8%20%6%8%4%14%18%12%13 Wind Wind 23 2 23 5 1-5 7 23 2 22 12 14 15-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00%-40-2002040602020/1/312020/3/312020/5/312020/7/312020/9/302020/11/302021/1/312021/3/312021/5/312021/7/312021/9/302021/11/302022/1/312022/3/312022/5/312022/7/312022/9/302022/11/302023/1/312023/3/31:-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.00:%:%9 iFind iFind 1.4 23 4 16-24 20.4%23 3 0.8pct 23 4 5.2%23 3 0.1pct 22 12 0.3pct 16%17 16-24%Wind Wind 23Q1 22Q4 0.07pct 18 iFind 0.000.501.001.502.002.502022/10/22022/10/162022/10/302022/11/132022/11/272022/12/112022/12/252023/1/82023/1/222023/2/52023/2/192023/3/52023/3/192023/4/22023/4/162023/4/302023/5/14 05,00010,00015,00020,00002004006008001,0001,2002021/4/42021/5/232021/7/112021/8/292021/10/172021/12/52022/1/232022/3/132022/5/12022/6/192022/8/72022/9/252022/11/132023/1/12023/2/192023/4/9 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.002018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/31:0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.002018/1/312018/5/312018/9/302019/1/312019/5/312019/9/302020/1/312020/5/312020/9/302021/1/312021/5/312021/9/302022/1/312022/5/312022/9/302023/1/31:16-24 4.204.404.604.805.005.205.402022/6/30 2022/9/30 2022/12/31 2023/3/31%10 23 23 2 3 4 3.5%10.6%18.4%5A 22 10 23 2 19%20 5A/Wind iFind 2.70(yoy+162.4%)9049(yoy+462.1%)942.1(yoy+508.0%)21 22 2.74(yoy+70.8%)1480.6(yoy+128.9%)23 24-15.00-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.002022/2/282022/3/312022/4/302022/5/312022/6/302022/7/312022/8/312022/9/302022/10/312022/11/302022/12/312023/2/282023/3/312023/4/30:0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002019/11/172020/2/22020/4/192020/7/52020/9/202020/12/62021/2/212021/5/92021/7/252021/10/102021/12/262022/3/132022/5/292022/8/142022/10/302023/1/152023/4/2:5A-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%00.511.522.532020 2021 2022 2023 yoy-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%010020030040050060070080090010002020 2021 2022 2023 yoy 11 15.18(yoy+518.1%)19 3763(yoy+338.8%)19 7.2%25 26 2.1 2023 3/M2 2006 28%2022/0.75 2021 18%27()/M2()28()/()-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%00.511.522.532020 2021 2022 2023 yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%020040060080010001200140016002020 2021 2022 2023 yoy0246810121416182019 2021 2022 2023 0100020003000400050002019 2021 2022 2023 12 Wind 2023 3 31 2006 1 Wind 2022 2023Q1 15%20%2022 29 30 Wind Wind+23Q1 23%31+Wind 0%20%40%60%80%100%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.02006/2/12007/1/12007/12/12008/11/12009/10/12010/9/12011/8/12012/7/12013/6/12014/5/12015/4/12016/3/12017/2/12018/1/12018/12/142019/11/302020/10/162021/9/302022/8/6/M2()0.00.20.40.60.81.019781982198619951997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021/0%5%10%15%20%25%0500100015002000250030003500400019Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%020040060080010001200140019Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1 yoy-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500100015002000250030003500400018Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1+()yoy 13 2.2 K 32 K 2.3 2019 20%PE(12)20 15%14 2 12 27 20 22 25 23 21 25 18 2019 59 54 63 103 78 57 98 42 19 12 13 15 13 16 14 14 34 23 28 36 27 25 30 22 22%19%18%1 1%15%13%13%14%2014 59 54 63 103 170 91 98 42 8 5 6 8 12 16 14 7 30 22 27 35 29 26 31 21 38%31%29%17%7%7%13%31%2009 59 54 63 103 170 91 98 42 8 5 6 8 11 12 10 6 28 22 24 33 29 26 32 21 38%31%29%18%7%12%17%31%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2023 年 5 月 20 日）PE 20 3 12 31 21 17 20 33 30 33 28 2019 52 40 25 36 54 40 71 71 13 12 11 12 16 10 13 13 36 22 17 23 37 24 34 28 48%32%45%32%44%66%34%27%2014 52 40 58 70 54 40 71 71 11 12 11 12 12 9 12 13 34 21 18 23 30 22 35 28 50%32%14%13%49%68%34%27%2009 69 40 58 70 54 44 82 71 10 12 11 12 11 9 12 13 33 21 18 23 25 23 35 28 37%32%14%13%50%60%29%27%资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（注：估值时 间为 2023 年 5 月 20 日）15 33 PE TTM 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（截止 2023 年 5 月 20 日）2022 Q2 2 34 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（数 据仅限重 仓持股 基金）35 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（数 据仅限重 仓持股 基金）050100150200250300(TTM)0%2%4%6%8%10%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 16 36 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（数 据仅限重 仓持股 基金）37 资料来源：Wind、东方证券 研究所（数 据仅限重 仓持股 基金）2022 884705.WI 80000-100000 300 2019-2022 2023 1-4-3%38 884705.WI 39 884705.WI Wind Wind 300 000300.SH 22 178.1 yoy+63.6%i 49.0 23 200 1935 100 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%2015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 0200004000060000800001000001200001400002019/1/22019/4/22019/7/12019/9/232019/12/202020/3/232020/6/182020/9/112020/12/112021/3/122021/6/92021/9/12021/12/22022/3/32022/6/12022/8/242022/11/232023/2/22 884705.WI-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%300 17 1952 23 3 6+22 1570 1501 15 20 23Q1 18 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
