20230517_华创证券_保险行业2023年中期策略报告：渠道改革驱动价值抬升人身险拐点已至_28页.pdf-资源下载-

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20230517_华创证券_保险行业2023年中期策略报告：渠道改革驱动价值抬升人身险拐点已至_28页.pdf

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20230517_华创证券_保险行业2023年中期策略报告：渠道改革驱动价值抬升人身险拐点已至_28页.pdf

2009 1210 2023 05 17 2023 2022 3.79-1.2%3.2+2.8%23Q1+7.1%+8.9 22 A 46.4%-3.1pct 23Q1 48.7%22Q1 3.0pct 22 22 NBV 2022 NBV+3.7pct 23Q1 2022+23Q1 2022 2022 14867+8.7%22 COR COR COR COR 2022 ROEV EV 2023 I17 OCI I9 23+2023+PEV 0.95x 0.68x 0.61x 0.48x 1.73x PB A 1.20 x H 0.52x H 0.94x H H 021-20572556 S0360518060005%()6 0.00()28,879.40 3.06()19,936.20 2.79%1M 6M 12M 18.4%30.0%37.6%21.2%26.3%37.0%2023-04-28 2023 2022-12-27 2022-11-07-11%6%24%42%22/05 22/07 22/10 22/12 23/02 23/052022-05-172023-05-16 300 2023 2009 1210 2 EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 53.20 7.58 9.18 10.79 7.01 5.80 4.93 0.92 32.97 3.58 4.28 4.80 9.20 7.70 6.87 1.16 39.66 5.94 7.46 8.65 6.68 5.32 4.59 0.92 41.19 1.52 1.90 2.06 27.17 21.71 20.03 2.43 6.61 0.74 0.82 0.91 8.96 8.04 7.27 1.19 Wind 2023 5 16 YWAZvMsPpMmNrPoNnQqPqR6M9R8OsQrRpNnOeRpPmRkPmNrO6MrQqPuOmMqMwMpNxP 2023 2009 1210 22 23Q1 22+23+Q1 22 23 2023 2009 1210 4 2022 23.7.9.9.10.14.15 22 23Q1.19 22 EV 23.20.22.25 2023 2009 1210 5 1 2022.7 2 2023.8 3.9 4.9 5.10 6.10 7.10 8 2022.11 9 2022 NBV.11 10.12 11.12 12.12 13.12 14.12 15.12 16.13 17.13 18.13 19.13 20.14 21.14 22.14 23 FYP.14 24.15 25.15 26.15 27.15 28.16 29.16 30.16 31.17 32.17 33.17 2023 2009 1210 6 34.17 35.17 36.17 37.18 38.18 39.18 40 COR.18 41 COR.19 42 COR.19 43.19 44.19 45.20 46 ROEV.20 47 EV.20 48.21 49.21 50.22 51.22 52 22 2023/5/16.23 53 PEV 2023/5/16.25 54 AH PB 2023/5/16.25 2023 2009 1210 7 2022 23 1 2022 2023 2009 1210 8 2 2023 2023 2009 1210 9 22 23Q1 2022 3.79-1.2%+0.8pct 3.2+2.8%+4.2pct 5624-13.2%-5.2pct 221-68.2%-115.1pct 84.6%+3.3pct 2023 23Q1 1.76+7.1%+8.9%+0.4%-48.9%2.45+4.0%8653+2.4%1073-11.3%2020-2022 71.6%25.3%3.1%+0.7pct-0.2pct-0.5pct 23 23Q1+10.8%+4.8%-15.6%6152-0.8%4711-3.9%2223+6.1%1631-0.2%1337+0.8%A 1.61-0.7%46.4%-3.1pct 6.9%+0.2pct 19.2%-0.7pct 13.7%-0.9pct 5.1%-0.1pct 1.6%-1.5pct 23Q1 A 48.7%22Q1 3.0pct 3 4*-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010000200003000040000500002018 2019 2020 2021 2022规保原保保储yoy-规保 yoy-原保 yoy-保储-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-2023 2009 1210 10 5 6*22 23Q1 22-7.4%-2.5pct-7.0%-7.1pct+5.1%+14.4pct+35.7%+18.6pct 23Q1+27.9%/+26.6%-11.9%/-5.2%NBV NBV 22 19.5%-6.0pct 24.1%-3.7pct 11.6%-11.9pct 5.5%-7.4pct NBV 2022 NBV+3.7pct 25 26+0.9pct 13-1.1pct 23Q1 39.7+16.6%137.0+8.8%+7.7%7 76.1%73.4%72.0%70.9%71.6%20.0%22.8%24.5%25.4%25.3%3.9%3.8%3.5%3.6%3.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50.0%0.0%50.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-40%-20%0%20%40%60%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-2023 2009 1210 11 8 2022 9 2022 NBV*-margin=/3 margin 2022 360-19.6%+3.7pct 1848+5.1%+14.4pct 19.5%-6.0pct 33.0%-9.2pct 1 2022 57.0%+7.6pct 35.6%-6.0pct 7.4%-1.6pct 2022+21.2%+40.9pct+5.1%+14.4pct 2 996-1.9%272+64.6%260-5.6%-0.9%+66.4%NBV 2022 288-24.0%-0.4pct 1390-7.4%-2.6pct 24.1%-3.7pct 36.3%-6.8pct 1-50.0%8.6pct 11.4%0.3pct 86.4%-15.3%+2.8%8.2pct 81.2%2.8pct 44.7%0.7pct 18.8%2.1pct-7.7%0.4pct 7.4%1.2pct 76.8%2-12.5%6.8pct 36.3%-22.2%3.2pct 28.7%0.3pct 1.2%+16.9%2.3pct 9.0%0.1pct 19.2%NBV 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100%-50%0%50%01002003004005006007008002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-2023 2009 1210 12 10 11*12 13*14 15*NBV*10 10*NBV*10 10-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-yoy-yoy-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-yoy-yoy-62.1%55.5%55.8%49.4%57.0%29.6%36.5%36.0%41.6%35.6%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 45.9%45.4%34.3%20.0%11.4%39.7%37.2%42.0%50.9%59.8%8.3%11.3%16.5%22.1%21.4%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2023 2009 1210 13 2022 92-31.4%-6.5pct 664+35.7%+18.6pct 11.6%-11.9pct 1+13.7%+3.4pct 54.0%-3.5%2.1pct 20.6%-1.1%2.9pct 38.1%-0.4%0.6pct 7.8%2-21.5%+332.0%+12.4%NBV 2022 434-7.0%-7.1pct 24-59.5%-24.6pct 5.5%-7.4pct 1-41.2%-9.5pct 16.4%-26.8%-0.8pct 3.1%+11.4%7.7pct 46.9%+0.9%2.6pct 33.6%2-32.2%10.8pct 28.9%+11.2%+10.6pct 64.7%-3.9%+0.2pct 6.4%23Q1-5.2%-27.0%+1.5%+38.3%16 17*18 19-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-yoy-yoy-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-yoy-yoy-34.7%39.4%45.2%50.6%54.0%58.3%52.5%45.9%41.0%38.1%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 14 20 21*2022 66.8-18.5%44.5-25.9%27.9-46.9%19.7-49.4%2022+23Q1 40.4-9.2%66.2-0.9%2022 14.9+20.4%20.3+30.6%8.2+47.7%6.4+33.7%22 23 FYP*/FYP 11.5%20.3%38.6%39.2%46.9%59.7%50.4%33.5%25.9%16.4%21.4%22.7%23.3%31.0%33.6%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 15 2022 14867+8.7%+8.0pct 2022 8210+5.6%+11.3pct 2022 2684.9+2.3%2022 687.2+95.9%23Q1-6.5%+27.0%2022 6657+12.8%+2.2pct+1.6pct 44.8%-8.5%-24.4pct+5.9%+30.3pct+14.7%+24.9%+12.7%+67.1%+59.2%+0.4pct 1.1%23Q1 23Q1+6.2%+14.1%+15.5%+32.3%+12.9%-20.0%2022 CR3 64.2%+0.5pct 4854 32.7%-0.1pct 2980 20.0%+0.3pct 1708 11.5%+0.3pct+8.3%+10.4%+11.6%CR3+9.5%+8.7%23Q1 CR3-0.2pct 64.7%24 25 26 27-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2019 2020 2021 2022-50%0%50%100%2021 20220%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2023 2009 1210 16 28 1+6.2%+6.6%+6.7%+5.6%33.0%+0.2pct 24.5%+0.2pct 11.9%+0.1pct 2+11.0%+19.1%+19.0%+12.8%+20.0%+30%23Q1+6.5%+6.2%+12.8%+3.8%29 30-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-CR3-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 17 31 32 33 34 35 36 COR 22 COR COR 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%车险意健险农险责任险企财险保证险货运险其他非车险2020 2021 2022-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%车险意健险农险责任险企财险保证险货运险其他非车险2021 20220%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%车险保证险责任险意健险企财险其他非车险2020 2021 2022-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%车险保证险责任险意健险企财险其他非车险2021 20220%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%车险交强险商业险健康险农业险责任险保证险其他非车险2020 2021 2022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%车险交强险商业险健康险农业险责任险保证险其他非车险2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 18 97.6%-1.9pct 100.3%+2.3pct 97.4%-1.6pct 71.8%-1.8pct 69.9%+2.9pct 68.5%-1.1pct 25.8%-0.1pct 30.4%-0.6pct 28.9%-0.5pct 23Q1 95.7%-0.9pct 98.4%-1.2pct 98.7%+2.0pct COR-1.7pct 95.6%-3.1pct 95.8%-1.8pct 96.9%2022-2.0pct-1.6pct+0.3pct-0.2pct COR-20.4pct COR COR+40.2pct 37 38 39 40 COR 20%25%30%35%40%45%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 50%55%60%65%70%75%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 95.0%96.0%97.0%98.0%99.0%100.0%101.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%车险意健险农险责任险保证险企财险货运险其他2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 19 41 COR 42 COR 22 23Q1 22 22 4.0%-0.4pct 4.7%+0.1pct 4.3%-0.2pct 4.6%+0.3pct 5.1%+0.3pct 23Q1-0.4pct 3.6%-0.2pct 3.1%-0.2pct 0.8%22 23Q1 3.9%-1.1pct 2.5%-1.5pct 4.2%-1.5pct 4.3%-1.6pct 4.6%-1.2pct 23Q1 3.3%+1.0pct 4.2%+0.3pct 1.4%+0.4pct 5.2%+1.2pct+43 44-0.1pct 77.4%+2.1pct-0.4pct 14.8%+-0.5pct+0.1pct 70.4%+1.5pct-0.6pct 23.2%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%车险保证险责任险意外险企财险健康险2021 202290.0%92.0%94.0%96.0%98.0%100.0%102.0%104.0%车险农业险责任险健康险保证险2021 20224.0%4.2%4.4%4.6%4.8%5.0%5.2%5.4%5.6%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 20+-1.4pct 22-2.4pct 77.0%+0.3pct+2.8pct+2.6pct-0.9pct 77.5%+2.1pct+1.0pct 20.7%+1.9pct 67.5%+0.5pct-2.2pct+-1.3pct 45 22 EV 23 ROEV EV 23 ROEV NBV EV 22 NBV EV ROEV ROEV 23Q1 ROEV ROEV EV 22 EV 23 EV 46 ROEV 47 EV 12.8%12.9%8.1%8.7%13.5%13.7%17.0%20.4%10.7%10.9%48.2%48.5%48.6%50.7%38.2%40.3%38.5%40.0%40.7%41.2%18.4%15.6%20.8%18.0%26.7%23.5%14.8%10.0%14.2%15.4%8.8%11.4%11.6%11.1%12.4%12.4%15.5%14.1%14.9%13.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022国寿平安太保新华人保+0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%020004000600080001000012000140002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-yoy-yoy-yoy-2023 2009 1210 21 48 49 22 2023 2009 1210 22 50 51 23Q1 2022 0.08%21.55pct 2023 2009 1210 23 26.15%/14.62%1.54%/5.45%/18.57%2023 2023 5 16 23 16.96%14.21pct/34.46%/31.85%/26.63%/13.19%/10.94%52 22 2023/5/16 wind 2022 ROEV EV 22 23Q1+/384/273/116/69/117+48.9%/+78.0%/+27.4%/+114.8%/+230.0%23Q1 I17 I9 1 I17 I17+750 OCI OCI GMM VFA-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%300 2023 2009 1210 24 2 I9 HTM AFS LR FVTPL AC FVOCI FVTPL FVOCI AFS FVTPL FVOCI FVTPL FVTPL AC FVOCI FVOCI I17 I9 23Q1+5.7%+35.7%/179/110+18.0%/+25.3%+23 1 23Q1 2019 2 23Q1 3 2023+PEV 0.95x 0.68x 0.61x 0.48x 1.73x PB A 1.20 x H 0.52x H 0.94x H H 2023 2009 1210 25 53 PEV 2023/5/16 wind 54 AH PB 2023/5/16 wind-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 0123456 601319.SH 1339.HK 2328.HK 2023 2009 1210 26 2016 2017 2019 2019 Wind 2020 8 2020 2021 2021 2022 Choice 2022 2022 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018-2021 2022 2022 2018 2023 2019 2019 2019 Wind 2020 8 2020 2021 2021 2022 Choice 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2009 1210 27 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2023 2009 1210 28(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522

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