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20230518_海通证券_建筑行业证券研究报告：中特估一带一路建筑央国企估值迎提升_48页.pdf

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20230518_海通证券_建筑行业证券研究报告：中特估一带一路建筑央国企估值迎提升_48页.pdf

劼 SAC S0850518020001 2023 5 18/1 2 3 4 5 2 XVAZyRtOmPqRpRpMsPtMqRaQ8Q7NnPrRoMtQeRqQsPlOqRzR9PrQtPwMmQzRwMmMtO 3 2022 11 21 2022 2023 2023 2 23 4 2023 3 3 2023 3 7 5 28 2023 ROE 5 2023 ROE 2020 2021 2022 2023 6 wind 2014-2022 10%2022 8.35%7.72%2016/2021 2012 2022 ROE 7 wind ROE 2013-2022 2013-2022 2023 ROE/（%）（次）2010 12.68 2.45 1.13 4.842011 13.83 2.70 0.99 5.072012 10.74 2.15 0.90 5.312013 13.87 2.80 0.89 5.482014 13.31 2.87 0.85 5.232015 12.60 3.03 0.79 4.752016 11.65 3.20 0.73 4.732017 11.99 3.35 0.71 4.492018 11.40 3.49 0.69 4.292019 11.15 3.49 0.70 4.022020 10.17 3.35 0.71 3.772021 10.33 3.30 0.73 3.742022 10.15 3.06 0.73 3.85（%）8/2023 1 12 2023 2023 3 29 21 11 2022-2023 2023 1 2023 3 2023 2 2022 12 2022 11 9 ROE ROE/2022 2023-2025 9855 11700 0.996%668 1 2021 2023/2024/2025 8%/8.5%/9%75 2 2023/2024/2025 7.7%/7.9%/8.2%75 3 2023/2024/2025(EVA)2022 2023-2025 5996 0.9814%485 1 2023/2024/2025 9.05%/9.15%/9.25%75 2 2021 2023/2024/2025 15%75 3 EVA 2021 2022-2024 17072.44 1192.20 0.6883%0.05%697 50 1 2022/2023/2024 10.50%/11.00%/11.50%75 2 2020 2022/2023/2024 12%75 3 2022/2023/2024 EVA A 2021-2023 91203.6 2.1733%2765 1 2021/2022/2023 12.0%/12.2%/12.5%75;2 2021/2022/2023 2019 7%50 3 EVA 2022 2023-2025 1059.1758 1188.31 2.845%84 1 2023/2024/2025 10.65%/11.09%/11.62%75 2 2021 2023/2024/2025 10.58%/10.88%/11.00%75 3 2023/2024/2025 EVA EVA 1.16 2022 2023-2025 1210 0.94%90 1 2023/2024/2025 12.0%/12.3%/12.6%2023/2024/2025 75 2 2021 2023/2024/2025 12.5%2023/2024/2025 75 3 2023/2024/2025 5%2021 2022-2024 4654.9115 1000 2.01%0.44%194 71 1 2022/2023/2024 2020 15.5%2 2022/2023/2024 14.9%/15.4%/16.2%75 3 2022/2023/2024 E V A 2023 2023-2025 9465 2.566%535 1 2023/2024/2025 10.8%/10.9%/11.0%75 2 2023/2024/2025 2021 10%75 3 E V A 2021 2022-2024 2997 874 0.63%0.18%308 110 1 2022/2023/2024 70/80/90 2020 2 2022/2023/2024 1000/1100/1200 2020 3 2022/2023/2024 5.7 1 2 3 4 5 10 11 2023 10 151 32 200 2 15 3 3 12 3 1 3 10 3 20 22 4 12 15 2023 2023 4 18 13 2 15 ACWAPower 2030 2 15 CEC 2 16 ACWAPower 2030 2 17 2 27 110 111 4 12 4 13 14 wind/2022 13%2022 47.74%2022 21.41%13.70%13.07%15 wind 2022+2023 2022 11.10%2020-6.82%2021 7.61%2014-2016 2018-2019 2022 2023Q1 2022Q2%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 59.74-32.48 24.99-2.65 24.03 106.76-13.53 10.52 18.95-4.84 49.60-11.70 15.90 21.64 6.79 11.34 21.10 1.10 4.60 37.20 4.30 74.80-21.70-5.20 4.30-16.60 0.20-0.80-25.80 140.87 39.53-0.03-19.60-7.99 3.38 19.12 43.17 0.01-25.98 23.15 4.68 5.36 0.37 35.32 16.73 0.69 18.11 0.89 29.29-3.39 35.82-18.54 17.11 12.86 7.90 14.43 7.06 8.35 15.93 21.63 10.40 28.49-18.71 31.52 87.68 0.28 49.54 171.11-63.78 0.37-23.68-39.20-6.00 31.00 24.00-24.00-21.00 19.00 8.00 2.00 73.00 76.81-21.70-16.48 119.97 32.60 14.06-8.20-8.26-9.11 18.08-11.48-14.64 1 2 3 4 5 16 2023 1-4 8.5%2023 1-3+8.8%3.8 14.0%10.7%8.8%1-4 11.1%6.4 5.6 1-4 8.8%17 wind 31 2023 50%21 31 21900 4320 50%32%2022 60%1 11 2022 12 63.2%57.7%2021 37.1%2022 10 12 63.2%2023 18 2023 19 wind 22 7.28%23Q1 6.96%2022 7.28%2021 7.65 5.93 8.35%14.85 8.00%2022Q1-Q4 13.34%5.19%7.80%4.26%2023Q1 6.96%27.30%2021 2022%20 2022 2023Q1 10%2022 0.55 10.82%2023Q1 0.02 9.39%2022 0.10 6.14%2023Q1 0.05 3.72%2022 0.24 1.10%2023Q1 0.02 0.15%2022 0.54 3.44%2023Q1 3.70 2.85%2022 1842.90 10.73%2.19%0.04 2023Q1 518.44 10.13%2.55%0.04 2022 2.39%0.04 2023Q1 2.57%0.08 2023 2022 2092.37 157.44%2023Q1-3334.32 14.60%2022 1564.74 200.92%21 2022 2022 10%20%2021Q1 2021Q1-2 2021Q1-3 2021Q1-4 2022Q1 2022Q1-2 2022Q1-3 2022Q1-4 2023Q1 4589.20 10545.55 15663.43 28196.52 4659.38 13312.46 18436.69 32450.01 5396.34 3292.30 10336.70 14663.50 27293.20 6057.40 12119.40 19830.80 30323.90 6673.80 7414.00 16070.00 21523.00 31074.00 8350.00 18385.00 24543.00 35015.00 9718.00 2805.70 6150.60 8770.60 12047.60 3191.10 6470.00 9352.70 13455.70 3258.10 4105.88 6851.31 10067.13 12679.12 4306.93 8019.00 10321.61 15422.56 4578.13 2313.05 3822.66 5205.91 7802.83 2475.79 5771.43 7730.28 10091.86 3223.75 546.76 1318.62 1723.30 2697.69 1039.14 1624.50 2355.11 2969.23 1045.97 2438.72 4832.89 5924.00 8726.10 2440.70 5327.64 6946.42 10490.90 2977.13%2021Q1 2021Q1-2 2021Q1-3 2021Q1-4 2022Q1 2022Q1-2 2022Q1-3 2022Q1-4 2023Q1 34.9 20.4 12.6 10.4 1.5 26.2 17.7 15.1 15.82(2.5)18.8 8.3 4.7 84.0 17.2 35.2 11.10 10.20 32.1 20.9 10.3 12.1 12.6 14.4 14.0 12.7 16.40 60.7 32.2 25.1 18.1 13.7 5.2 6.6 11.70 2.10 80.3 28.5 36.6 18.9 4.9 17.0 2.5 21.6 6.30 31.0 13.7 3.6 15.9 7.0 51.0 48.5 29.34 30.21 20.4 44.9 17.3 7.4 90.1 23.2 36.7 10.1 0.66 91.0 58.2 44.6 51.0 0.1 10.2 17.3 20.20 21.98 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 4589.20 5956.35 5117.88 12533.09 4659.38 8653.08 5124.23 14013.32 5396.34 3292.30 7044.40 4326.80 12629.70 6057.40 6062.00 7711.40 10493.10 6673.80 7414.00 8656.00 5453.00 9551.00 8350.00 10035.00 6158.00 10472.00 9718.00 2805.70 3344.90 2620.00 3277.00 3191.10 3278.90 2882.70 4103.00 3258.10 4105.88 2745.43 3215.82 2611.99 4306.93 3712.07 2302.61 5100.95 4578.13 2313.05 1509.61 1383.25 2596.92 2475.79 3295.64 1958.85 2361.58 3223.75 546.76 771.86 404.68 974.39 1039.14 585.36 730.61 614.12 1045.97 2438.72 2394.17 1091.11 2802.10 2440.70 2886.94 1618.78 3544.48 2977.13%2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 34.9 11.2(0.6)7.7 1.5 45.3 0.1 11.8 15.82(2.5)32.2(10.6)0.9 84.0(13.9)78.2(16.92)10.20 32.1 12.7(12.3)16.5 12.6 15.9 12.9 9.6 16.40 60.7 15.1 11.1 2.8 13.7(2.0)10.0 25.21 2.10 80.3(10.2)57.6(20.8)4.9 35.2(28.4)95.3 6.30 31.0(19.6)(16.8)52.0 7.0 118.3 41.6(9.06)30.21 20.4 69.3(27.7)(6.5)90.1(24.2)80.5(37.0)0.66 91.0 34.7 4.7 66.7 0.1 20.6 48.4 26.49 21.9822 2023 1-3 3223.75 30.21%31487.73 17.70%2023 1-3 9718 16.40%3 4042 3.85%2022M1 2022M1-2 2022M1-3 2022M1-4 2022M1-5 2022M1-6 2022M1-7 2022M1-8 2022M1-9 2022M1-10 2022M1-11 2022M1-12 2023M1 2023M1-2 2023M1-3 2824.00 4458.00 8350.00 10451.00 12812.00 18385.00 19657.00 21554.00 24543.00 27227.00 30787.00 35015.00 3171.00 5676.00 9718.00 1101.80 2086.30 3191.10 4057.30 4993.10 6470.00 7245.80 8320.00 9352.70 10494.30 11626.10 13455.70 1054.20 1945.60 3258.10 654.95 1211.82 2475.79 3338.31 3862.68 5771.43 6192.16 6644.94 7730.28 8761.40 9331.59 10091.86 897.89 1736.02 3223.75 511.54 767.42 1039.14 1240.55 1398.27 1624.50 1829.39 2071.34 2355.11 2498.35 2610.79 2969.23 331.40 706.90 1045.97%2022M1 2022M1-2 2022M1-3 2022M1-4 2022M1-5 2022M1-6 2022M1-7 2022M1-8 2022M1-9 2022M1-10 2022M1-11 2022M1-12 2023M1 2023M1-2 2023M1-3 19.4 6.7 12.6 16.6 13.8 14.4 13.40 14.70 14.00 17.00 16.60 12.70 12.30 27.30 16.40 6.4 14.6 13.7 12.2 6.6 5.2 3.00 5.90 6.60 8.80 8.60 11.70(4.30)(6.70)2.10 3.1 1.7 7.0 23.5 29.3 51.0 43.67 42.26 48.49 55.49 50.07 29.34 37.09 43.26 30.21 83.0 87.5 90.1 76.5 59.3 23.2 35.52 33.50 36.66 18.29 11.03 10.07(35.22)(7.89)0.66 2022M1 2022M2 2022M3 2022M4 2022M5 2022M6 2022M7 2022M8 2022M9 2022M10 2022M11 2022M12 2023M1 2023M2 2023M3 2824.00 1634.00 3892.00 2101.00 2361.00 5573.00 1272.00 1897.00 2989.00 2684.00 3560.00 4228.00 3171.00 2505.00 4042.00 1101.80 984.50 1104.80 866.20 935.80 1476.90 775.80 1074.20 1032.70 1141.60 1131.80 1829.60 1054.20 891.40 1312.50 654.95 556.87 1263.97 862.52 524.37 1908.75 420.73 452.78 1085.34 1031.12 570.19 760.27 897.89 838.13 1487.73 511.54 255.88 271.72 201.41 157.72 226.23 204.89 241.95 283.77 143.24 112.44 358.44 331.40 375.50 339.07%2022M1 2022M2 2022M3 2022M4 2022M5 2022M6 2022M7 2022M8 2022M9 2022M10 2022M11 2022M12 2023M1 2023M2 2023M3 19.4(9.8)20.3 35.4 3.1 15.8 1.11 29.31 9.57 52.93 13.56(9.29)12.30 53.30 3.85 6.4 25.5 12.1 6.8(12.5)0.8(12.11)30.38 13.06 30.62 6.56 36.45(4.30)(9.46)18.80 3.1 0.0 12.7 121.1 84.0 128.8(13.69)25.43 102.94 140.51(2.31)(52.02)37.09 50.51 17.70 83.0 97.3 97.6 29.1(9.9)(48.7)119.32 73.44 65.21(63.15)(53.03)3.51(35.22)46.75 24.79 1 2 3 4 5 23 4./24 2023 1 2 3 25-2022 wind PE/PB 2023/5/17 PE wind-202220222022ROE2022PE 2023E PB LF 601390.SH 85.20%4.63%2.24%1.61%59 13.25%12.13%11.1%5.52 0.74601800.SH 88.39%6.73%7.12%58 6.16%7.54%21.6%8.23 0.71601186.SH 88.00%5.68%2.26%1.85%8.71%63 7.90%11.05%15.1%4.87 0.61601668.SH 61.70%24.10%13.70%57-1.16%13.94%12.7%4.57 0.68601669.SH 88.57%4.18%7.25%59 15.93%9.95%29.3%9.25 1.03601117.SH 75.23%14.25%4.68%3.61%2.23%57 16.87%10.71%10.1%8.53 1.05601868.SH 82.44%9.17%7.51%4.77%58 20.07%8.46%20.2%11.46 1.12601618.SH 92.87%3.83%2.08%1.50%57 22.66%10.47%11.7%7.05 0.88 2022 wind 2022 85.20%4.63%2.24%1.61%71.63%7.89%4.60%4.56%26 ROE 2022 2022 ROE 2022 500 34 ENR 250 2 11 6 2022 2022 87.92%0.92%2.08%2.48%6.60%17.01%11.49%59.42%2022 30323.9+11.1%2023Q1 6673.8+10.2%23-24 EPS 1.45 1.69 23 6-7 27 2022 2021 ROE 2022-2024 2022 2 23 2022 11 30 17072.44 0.6883%1192.20 0.05%697 50 3.55/3.68/28 1 2022 10.50%75 2 2020 2022 12%75 3 2022 EVA 1 2023 11.00%75 2 2020 2023 12%75 3 2023 EVA 1 2024 11.50%75 2 2020 2024 12%75 3 2024 EVA REITs 2022 wind 2022 88.39%6.73%7.12%80.93%9.31%8.20%29 2022 2022 2022 2022 7202.75 5.02%191.04 6.16%ROE 21 ROE 2022 32 139 2018 2022 15422.56 21.64%4.97%23.20%2.91%44.03%13.53%3.56%6.92%0.88%REITS 23-24 EPS 1.36 1.51 2023 9-10 PE REITs 30 2022 REITs 2022 ROE 2023-2025 2023 5 4 9855 A 0.839%662 5.33/31 REITs 1 2021 2023 8%75 2 2023 7.7%75 3 2023(EVA)1 2021 2024 8.5%75 2 2024 7.9%75 3 2024(EVA)1 2021 2025 9%75 2 2025 8.2%75 3 2025(EVA)2022 wind 2022 88.00%5.68%2.26%1.85%8.71%75.14%7.88%5.05%6.58%6.41%32 ROE 2022 2022 22 0.03 pct 500 2022 39 500 2022 11 ENR 250 3 32 139 70 50%40%30%50%1000 CRCC CCECC 2022 3.25 15.09%112.83%57.40%23.15%5.88%0.91%1.10%4.05%6.93%0.35%0.19%23/24 EPS 2.18/2.40 23 5-6 PE 33 2022 2022 wind 2022 61.70%24.10%13.70%48.40%25.70%24.80%34 ROE 2022 2022 2022 20550.52 8.58%509.50 1.16%2022 500 9 500 3 ENR 250 2023 1-3 2022 3.50 12.7%70.62%28.99%0.39%2023 1-3 9718 16.4%7238 2438 42 15.5%18.8%28.4%23-24 EPS 1.40 1.54 23 6-7 35 2022 A ROE 2021-2023 2020 12 23 91203.6 2.1733%2765 3.06/36 2022 2023 2024 12.0%75 12.2%75 12.5%75 7%50 7%50 7%50 EVA EVA EVA 2022 wind 2022 88.57%4.18%7.25%72.30%13.89%13.81%37 ROE 2022 2022 2022 ROE 2022 5726.13 1.23%114.35 15.93%ROE 9.95%2.10 pct 2018 2022 ENR 150 ENR 250 5 2023 1-3 2022 10091.86 29.34%44.88%17.51%35.33%2.28%2023 1-3 3223.75 30.21%23-24 BPS 10.19 11.05 2023 1.1-1.2 38 2022 2022 wind 2022 75.23%14.25%4.68%3.61%2.23%79.92%10.91%4.08%2.71%2.38%39 ROE 2022 2022 2018 ROE 2022 140 80 2022 2969.23 10.07%2023 1-3 1045.97 0.66%999.59 17.69 17.42 6.07 5.20 23-24 EPS 1.04 1.21 23 11-12 40 2022 2022 wind 2022 66.05%22.84%7.91%2.88%35.71%52.33%6.16%5.85%41 ROE 2022 2022 2019 2022 57.20+8.63%2.07+28.80%2022 ROE 2.07 pct 13.15%2019 2022 2022 ENR/60 31 2022 100 67 7 58 19 26 70%40%2022 99.23 49.36%18.69 264.25%7 23-24 EPS 0.63 0.77 23 26-27 42 2022 2022 wind 2022 59.79%23.58%12.27%44.16%31.72%17.17%43 ROE 2022 2022 2022 388.19+6.25%21.94+21.06%ROE 2022 2022 84 293 15 ENR 250 11 44 2021 16 2023Q1 2022 515.14 0.49%2023Q1 226.26 103%23-24 EPS 1.03 1.22 23 13-15 PE 44 2022 1 2 3 4 5 45 5.1.2.3.4.46 劼劼 SAC S0850518020001 Email 47 Email Email 48 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%

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