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20230511_东方证券_游戏行业证券研究报告:版号节奏加快带来产品波峰后置预期23Q2节奏逐渐好转_23页.pdf

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20230511_东方证券_游戏行业证券研究报告:版号节奏加快带来产品波峰后置预期23Q2节奏逐渐好转_23页.pdf

|23Q1 34.24%64.75%23Q2 23Q1 22 Q1 Q2 23Q1 22 11 3D 4 23Q2 23Q2 Everland:AIGC AI NPC 2 AI Bot NPC IK Al AI AI AI AI AI UGC NPC ChatGPT 3.5 D(002558)(002624)(002555)(00700)(002517)(603258)(300043)(300031)(300002)(603444)-S(09999)(300459)(300418)/2023 05 11 021-63325888*6128 S0860517020003 BQP120 021-63325888-3023 S0860520050001 BQP135 S0860520020003 BQJ931 021-63325888*3209 S0860521110001 021-63325888*6065 S0860521050003 23 Q1 2023-05-04 2023-05-04 AI AI 2023-05-04 23Q2 EPS PE 21 22E 23E 21 22E 23E 002555 31.19 1.30 1.33 1.54 24.05 23.42 20.21 603444 490.15 20.38 20.28 24.97 24.05 24.17 19.63 002624 20.51 0.19 0.71 0.97 107.83 28.90 21.23 09999-S 137.20 5.23 6.31 7.89 26.24 21.75 17.38 00700 328.40 23.45 19.63 14.41 14.01 16.73 22.78.23Q2 2 1.23Q1 forward P/E 25.4 2.23Q1.4 2.1 23Q2.4 2.2 23Q1.6 2.3.7 3.23Q1.8 4.23Q2.9 4.1.9 4.2 23Q3.10 4.3.11 4.4 2 23Q4.12 4.5 SLG.13 4.6:23Q2.13 4.7 23Q2.13 4.8 2 23Q2.14 4.9.15 4.10.15 4.11 23Q3 24 IP.16 4.12 SLG IP.16 4.13 IP.17 4.14.17 4.15 UGC AI.18 5.18 6.19 0YDWxOrMtQqRsMsRrMqPnM7NcM9PoMrRsQsRiNrRsPeRrQsQ9PmMxPxNtPrNMYrNmP 23Q2 3 1 23Q1.4 2 23Q1.4 3 SW forward P/E.4 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9 data ai.7 10 sensor tower.8 11.8 12.8 13.9 1 SW 23Q1.6 2.9 3.10 4.11 5.12 6.13 7.13 8.14 9.14 10.15 11.16 12.16 13.16 14.17 15.17 16.18 23Q2 4 1.23Q1 forward P/E 25 23Q1 34.24%64.75%1 23Q1 2 23Q1 wind wind forward P/E 25 2020 2018 3 SW forward P/E wind 2.23Q1 2.1 23Q2 23Q1 675.09 15.06%15.61%23Q1 22 34.24%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()()64.75%29.78%28.46%20.78%14.55%14.16%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.002015010920150424201508072015112020160311201606242016101420170126201705122017082520171215201803302018071320181102201902222019060620190920202001032020042420200807202011202021030520210618202109302022011420220506202208192022120920230331 23Q2 5 4 5 22 11 Q1 23Q2 17 4 26 iOS 30%GameLook 23Q2 6 23Q1 165 7%10%23Q1 12 11%6%7 8 564.3575.8592.1584.6732.0662.93685.22 706.69770.35734.58738.25721.95794.74683.15597.03583.92675.091.54%11.60%10.55%8.86%29.71%15.12%15.72%20.88%5.23%10.81%7.74%2.16%3.17%-7.00%-19.13%-19.12%-15.06%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.0 296 288 277 266 252604500416409487020040060080010002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 0204060801001201401601802021 1 2021 3 2021 5 2021 7 2021 9 2021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7 2022 9 2022 11 2023 1 2023 3 23Q2 6 2.2 23Q1 23Q1 16.86%22 11 3D 1 SW 23Q1 23Q1 23Q1%23Q1 23Q1%23Q1 23Q1*ST-0.17 8.01%-0.17 7.90%0.48-31.81%-0.22 25.62%-0.21 27.10%0.45 8.70%0.06-65.60%0.43-46.40%4.74-13.00%-0.30-4885.30%-0.29-4560.33%0.42 58.24%-0.03-24.85%0.10 11.93%4.74-4.69%-0.24-237.65%-0.23-237.71%0.86-54.88%ST-0.10 64.68%-0.09 63.59%1.01 20.48%2.86 18.70%2.90 16.72%9.55-7.20%6.70-10.47%7.75 1.92%37.65-7.94%2.62-37.01%2.45-9.67%5.08-12.55%3.38 99.22%4.33 107.53%30.23-14.14%1.91 116.46%1.98 116.02%11.88 17.64%2.04-72.33%2.41-71.28%19.04-10.55%1.47 189.73%1.78 182.44%12.12 22.36%158.1155.17156.75145.1143.5138.04143134.66150.96147.93150.86138.25154.93152.47155.93150.4 165.3-3.83%1.02%0.42%-0.27%-9.23%-11.04%-8.77%-7.20%5.20%7.16%5.50%2.67%2.63%3.07%3.36%8.79%6.66%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%020406080100120140160180 25.8925.0424.1223.6520.63 19.3918.3217.7415.3314.8816.1113.9813.61 13.4512.912.8412.07-45.61%-42.30%-41.74%-42.03%-20.32%-22.56%-24.05%-24.99%-25.69%-23.26%-12.06%-21.20%-11.22%-9.61%-19.93%-8.15%-11.32%-50.00%-40.00%-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%051015202530 23Q2 7 0.81 122.37%0.83 21.04%7.55 14.05%-0.44-302.48%-0.41-334.65%3.21-12.95%-0.03-127.58%-0.03-97.02%0.48 12.49%-0.01-55.49%0.02-61.08%0.63-9.02%0.40 34.60%0.41 30.82%3.64 35.65%-0.07 28.35%-0.04 30.61%0.53-28.48%0.06-37.39%0.08-30.81%0.79 0.09%0.60 34.67%0.79 149.69%2.46-25.29%1.66 19.11%2.12-43.33%12.17 2.04%1.01-44.09%1.02-44.01%3.41-26.48%0.11 154.43%0.12 164.60%1.07 14.86%0.71 39.17%0.74 40.03%4.29 34.50%1.81-11.97%1.91-11.97%6.90 43.89%1.68 5.06%2.71 435.63%9.24-11.46%-0.59 32.23%-0.55 31.42%1.62-28.16%-0.05-315.66%0.00-90.06%0.44-21.80%0.32-42.83%0.47-33.75%1.56-31.41%2.81-12.81%3.07-12.33%11.44-6.90%wind 2.3 data ai sensor tower 10 9 data ai data ai 051015202530352018.22018.42018.62018.82018.102018.122019.22019.42019.62019.82019.102019.122020.22020.42020.62020.82020.102020.122021.022021.042021.062021.082021.102021.122022.22022.42022.92022.112023.012023.03 IM30 23Q2 8 10 sensor tower sensor tower 3.23Q1 UGC 12 1 DAU 3000 11 23Q1 10 3 4 10 App Store 77.77%12 051015202530352020.12020.22020.32020.42020.52020.62020.72020.82020.92020.102020.112020.122021.12021.22021.32021.42021.52021.62021.72021.82021.92021.102021.112021.122022.12022.22022.32022.42022.52022.62022.72022.82022.92022.102022.112022.122023.012023.022023.03 IM30 23Q2 9 13 4.23Q2 4.1 23Q1 4 18 4 23Q2 6 13 2 taptap IP APEX-2295222 APEX-FPS M 20241 2023.8 770557 2023Q2 23Q2 10-530732-2024.4-417614-338810-290885-290757-steam-159502-MMORPG 113886-Roguelike 96791-67153-2023 Everdale-59169 2023Q4 SLG 41902-MOBA 37872-MMO 25654-25439-2491-SLG 1441-2024 RPG-2023 MMO-DFM-ARPG-2023-2023 MMORPG-2023H1-Valorant 2023H1 FPS-102162-2023.6.13 RPG taptap 4.2 23Q3 22 UGC 23Q1 23Q3 6 30 5 4 taptap 1351826 AI NPC 6 16 3 taptap IP ATLAS-5858869-2719865-23Q2 11 1351826-2023.6.30 MMORPG-535643-507706-406106-357438 steam-234223-OIP-189577-167421-167174-ZOZ:Final Hour-86,699-79045-60506-53542-steam-43143-41291-DIY-39951-34317-33304-29180-25905-24474-17621-2410-MMORPG-2023.6.16 taptap 4.3 iOS 5 29 5 25 SurvivorIII Dark Genesis 5 16 Outpost:Infinity Siege 2023 4 taptap IP-838,895-802,692-2023 Rizline-272,552-136531-2023.5.29 82287-MMORPG 66114-45848-49154-2023 BUG-23Q2 12 M88-MMO-Project S-SLG Roguelike-RPG-2-168163-2023 19815-2023.5.25 RPG beast planet-outpost infinity siege-2023 Dungeon SurvivorIII Dark Genesis-2023.5.16-taptap 4.4 2 23Q4 2 2022 22 7 iOS 23Q2 23Q4:RPG 2023 9 RPG 2 taptap 2023.12 AI AI Bot 2 5 taptap IP Imperial Destiny()-2023.6 2 25976-2023.12 RPG 265105-2023.9 RPG 61675-2023.9:-57992-2023.7 RPG-69433-嬛-2024H2-taptap 23Q2 13 4.5 SLG 2023 H M 6 taptap IP H-SLG-T-Hi-M-SLG-taptap 4.6:23Q2 ChatGPT stable diffusion AIGC 23Q2:D3 6 7 taptap IP:-2023.6-:1999-1496881-294523-156693-FOG-TAG-2023.6-taptap 4.7 23Q2 23Q1 23Q2 4 19 Sweet Candy POP 5 3 5 6 5 10 Emilys Resort 5 12 23Q2 23Q2 23Q2 14 8 taptap IP-2023H1 SLG 312-MMORPG 104693 2023H1 MMORPG-MMORPG-MMORPG-RPG-2023H1 MMORPG Emilys Resort Match 3-2023.5.12+43141-2023.5.6 SLG+MMO-MMOARPG IP-CB-SLG G2-SLG/-K-MMORPG 3D WTB-MMORPG 3D-MMORPG-SLG-SLG-SLG Q-SLG stpk-SLG-taptap 4.8 2 23Q2 23Q1 23Q2 4 14 2 23Q3 RPG RPG JRPG IP iOS AI 2 NPC chatGPT 9 taptap IP-125546 2023H2 23Q2 15 MA-108387-2023H2-MMORPG 5-150781-2-20232024 2-2023H2-20232024-20232024-20232024-20232024-20232024-Have a Nice Death-20232024-taptap 4.9 IP 3D MMORPG 10 taptap IP 13069-2023-2023-2-2023-1775-2023Q2-1827-2023 OVERLORD-2023-2023-2023-2023-XW-2023-:-333-2023Q2 taptap 4.10 23Q2 16 SLG 1 12 23Q1 23Q3 6 Everland 23Q4 10 SLG+Dreamland 11 taptap IP-2023-Everland-2023.6 Dreamland-SLG+-taptap 4.11 23Q3 24 IP 23Q2 SLG 23Q3 23Q4 24 IP 12 taptap IP 2690-23Q3-23Q2-:-23Q4-2024-2024-2024-taptap 4.12 SLG IP SLG SLG IP 2-3 4 27 1 IP 3 13 23Q2 17 taptap IP 1-2024H1-2-2024H1-JGames-2023-29663-2023-Idle War-2023H1-G-2023H2 SLG-3-2023-T3-2023+-GOT PC-2023H1-IK-2023H1-2022 42696-2023-PVE-U-ACT-A-DH-MMO-S-SLG-ARPG-taptap 4.13 IP IP IP iOS IP 14 taptap IP-786809-7-R&R-AM3-Disco Match-taptap 4.14 IP SLG 15 23Q2 18 taptap IP-MMOARPG-SLG-ARPG taptap 4.15 UGC AI IP iOS 23Q2 Super Sus 23H2 2023 3D MMORPG AI AI AI AI AI UGC NPC 16 taptap IP Super Sus-2023H2 166602-2023Q3-*-MMORPG 3D taptap 5.4 Q2 Q2 Everland:AIGC AI NPC NPC 2 AI Bot Q1 AI 2 NPC GPT AI AI AI AI AI UGC NPC ChatGPT 3.5 D 23Q2 19(002558)(002624)(002555)(00700)(002517)(603258)(300043)(300031)(300002)(603444)-S(09999)(300459)(300418)6.taptap 23Q2 20 信 息披 露 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