20230324_国盛证券_玻璃玻纤行业TCO玻璃：薄膜电池产业加速定制化属性凸显先发优势_26页.pdf
|2023 03 24 TCO TCO FTO+TCO TCO ITO FTO AZO FTO+TCO TCO 1 1.5 2 3 TCO TCO First Solar+BIPV+First Solar TCO First Solar BIPV TCO 1 First Solar 2025 20GW 2 BIPV 2025 3.5GW 6GW 3 28GW TCO First Solar TCO 2025 TCO 1.4 1 First Solar 2025 20GW TCO 9000 TCO 1600 2 2025 1GW TCO 600 First Solar TCO First Solar TCO TCO First Solar BIPV TCO TCO S0680522050001 1 2023-02-16-32%-16%0%16%2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 300 2023 03 24 P.2 1 TCO.4 1.1 FTO+.4 1.2.6 2 BIPV TCO.8 2.1 TCO.8 2.2First solar TCO.11 2.3BIPV.11 2.4.14 2.4.1.14 2.4.2.17 2.4.3 TCO.19 3 First Solar.21 3.1 TCO 2025 1.4.21 3.2.21 4 TCO.24.24 1 TCO.4 2 TCO.4 3.4 4.4 5.5 6.5 7 ITO FTO AZO.5 8 GW.6 9.6 10/%.6 11%.6 12 FTO.7 13.7 14 Low-E.7 15 1980-2021%.8 16%.9 17%.9 18:/.10 19:/.10 20 First Solar GW.10 21 First Solar GW.10 22 First Solar.10 23.10 24 First Solar2021-2025 GW.11 25 BIPV.11 26 BAPV.11 ZXBYzQsPpMmNpRnOmRtMnMaQdN9PtRnNsQmPlOnNsRjMnPtP8OnMqRxNoOsQvPoPtO 2023 03 24 P.3 27 BAPV BIPV.12 28 BIPV.12 29 BIPV.12 30 2021 BIPV.13 31 2021-2025 BIPV.13 32.14 33 ABX3.14 34.14 35.15 36 100MW.15 37 2013.16 38.17 39.17 40.17 41.18 42.18 43 CH3NH3PbI3.19 44.19 45.19 46.19 47 2023 3 17.20 48 TCO.21 49 First Solar TCO.22 50 TCO.22 51 TCO.23 2023 03 24 P.4 1 TCO 1.1 FTO+TCO TCO TCO ITO FTO AZO 1 TCO 2 TCO TCO PN TCO TCO TCO 3 4 2023 03 24 P.5 400700 5 6 Low-E&TCO AZO ITO FTO FTO ITO AZO FTO FTO ITO In AZO Zn FTO 7 ITO FTO AZO TCO ITO FTO AZO In2O3 SnO2 ZnO Sn4+F-,Sb5+Al3+,Ga3+,Ba3+,F3+/eV 3.54.0 3.84.0 3.34.6/(cm2/Vs)95130 1831 28120/cm-3 1.1*10201.4*1021 2.7*10201.2*1021 1.1*10201.1*1021/(*cm)4.4*10-52*10-4 7.5*10-57.5*10-4 6.5*10-55.1*10-4 FTOAZOITO FTOITOAZO FTOAZOITO AZOFTO ITOAZOFTO AZOITOFTO FTOAZO AZOITOFTO ZnSnIn ZnSnIn FTO TCO 2021 8.03GW 97%650-750 600 120-130 ITO AZO FTO First Solar TCO FTO AZO ITO FTO AZO ITO FTO 2023 03 24 P.6 8 GW 9 CPIA ACS Appl Mater Interfaces TCO 1 TCO 82%2 12/3 2%TCO 4 TCO 5 TCO 6 BIPV TCO 7 TCO 15%20%TCO 10/%11%1.2 TCO 1 2 3 8.03,97.0%0.245,3.0%碲化镉（CdTe）铜铟镓硒（CIGS）650-7506001500100200300400500600700800 CdTe CIGS 生产温度 范围其他,1%人工,3%电力,6%性能服务,12%折旧,24%TCO 玻璃,21%背板玻璃,9%PVB,9%燃气,7%接线盒,5%靶材,2%其他材料,1%玻璃及其 他封装材料,34.0%人工成本,3.1%固定资产 折旧,15.5%能源动力,13.4%钙钛矿,3.1%电极材料,30.9%2023 03 24 P.7 TCO 1.5 CVD CVD FTO SiO2 1.55 SnO2 2.0 SnO2 12 FTO 13 TCO TCO 14 Low-E 2023 03 24 P.8 First Solar First Solar TCO 12 2012 First Solar SQCI TCO 6 TCO 2 BIPV TCO TCO 1 First Solar 2025 20GW 2 BIPV 2025 3.5GW 3 26.4GW 2.1 TCO TCO TCO 1980-1990 2000-2010 First Solar 1980 1 1980-1990 1989 30%2 2000-2010 2000 First Solar 2004 2009 15%CPIA 2021 3.8%15 1980-2021%Fraunhofer ISE 2023 03 24 P.9 30%NREL 23.4%22.1%25.7%HJT TOPCon IBC 24.2%24.0%24.1%16%()()PV magazine 17%NREL 2003 EEG 25/kg 2008 250/kg 2009 50 60/kg 2012 15/24.5%28.7%28.5%29.1%33%33%33%45.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%PERC TOPCon HJT IBC 2023 03 24 P.10 18:/19:/Solar Frontier 2021 First Solar 2021 First Solar 7.9GW 95.4%First Solar 20 First Solar GW 21 First Solar GW First Solar CPIA First Solar CPIA 22 First Solar 23 First Solar First Solar TCO 2010 0501001502002502002/012003/012004/012005/012006/012007/012008/012009/012010/012011/012012/012013/012014/012015/012016/012017/012018/012019/012020/012021/012022/01:0501001502002002/012003/012004/012005/012006/012007/012008/012009/012010/012011/012012/012013/012014/012015/012016/012017/012018/012019/012020/012021/012022/01出口价格:多 晶硅:当月 值2.8 3.2 2.3 3.0 5.5 6.3 7.9 9.3 9.0 9.0 11.0 10.0 10.7 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0246810122015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021FS 产能 全球薄膜 产能 占比2.5 3.1 2.3 2.7 5.7 6.1 7.9 4.4 4.9 3.7 3.7 6.1 6.5 8.3 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01234567892015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021FS 产量 全球薄膜 产量 占比 2023 03 24 P.11 A TCO TCO TCO TCO 2.2First solar TCO First Solar TCO 40%First Solar 32 2025 20GW Toledo Solar 100MW 2027 2.8GW First Solar TCO 24 First Solar2021-2025 GW First Solar 2023 First Solar 2.3BIPV BAPV BIPV BAPV BIPV 25 BIPV 26 BAPV 7.99.411.8162005101520252021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025EFS 产能 2023 03 24 P.12 BIPV BIPV BAPV 164/m2 BIPV BIPV BAPV BIPV BAPV BAPV BIPV BIPV BAPV 27 BAPV BIPV BAPV BIPV T 200/m2 0.3/W*120W/m2=36/m2 0.6/W*120W/m2=72/m2 2.8/W*120W/m2=336/m2 2.8/W*120W/m2=336/m2+=572/m2+=408/m2 20 50 164/m2 BIPV Bipvboost 2018 90%10%56%44%28 BIPV 29 BIPV Bipvboost Bipvboost BIPV 2022 2025 3.5 0.5 0.5 8%55%BIPV 90%10%晶硅电池 薄膜电池44%56%晶硅电池 薄膜电池 2023 03 24 P.13 30 2021 BIPV 2022 8 2022 8 2022 2030-2022 6 2025 50%2022 3 2025 3.5 0.5 0.5 8%55%2022 1 2021 10 2021 10 15 25 2021 10.2021 10 2030 2025 8%50%2021 6 15 2021 6 50%40%30%20%2025 BIPV 3.5GW 0.28 0.4 0.64 10 2.0 2.0 2025 180W/BIPV 10%3.5GW 31 2021-2025 BIPV 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 6.7 7 7 7 7 2 2 2 2 2 41%41%41%41%41%0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 W/150 158 165 173 180 1%3%6%8%10%BIPV GW 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.5 Wind TCO 2023 03 24 P.14 130 100 400MW 2023 330MW 2024 630MW 1GW 1.5GW 3GW 32 MW 130 2023 330MW 2024 630MW 100 5 1GW 100 100 200MW 300MW 100 100MW 2022 8 200MW 100 100MW 2022 9 200MW 20 300MW 18 300MW 1GW 70 300MW 600MW 30 20 300MW 600MW 40 100MW 1GW 50 100MW 2.4 2.4.1 ABX3 2009 MAPbX3 3.8%2012 Spiro-MeOTAD 9.7%33 ABX3 34 1 TCO 2 ETL HTL 3 4 TiO2 400-500 2023 03 24 P.15 35 100MW PVD PVD TFT PVD 3 1 4 TCO PVD P1 PVD P2 P3 P4 36 100MW 2009 3.8%25.7%105cm-1 2 2023 03 24 P.16 m 200 m 99.9999%P b I 99%ABX3 1.22.3 eV 37 2013(%)cm2 2013/5/1 EPFL 14.1 0.209 2013/12/1 KRICT 17.9 0.0938 2014/4/1 KRICT 17.9 0.0937 2014/11/1 KRICT 20.1 0.0955 2015/2/1 NIMS 15 1.017 2015/6/1 NIMS 15.6 1.02 2015/12/1 KRICT/UNIST 20.1 0.0955 2016/3/1 KRICT/UNIST 22.1 0.0946 2016/3/1 KRICT/UNIST 19.7 0.9917 2017/7/1 KRICT 22.7 0.0935 2017/7/1 KRICT 20.9 0.991 2018/5/18 ISCAS,Beijing 23.3 0.074 2018/9/1 ISCAS,Beijing 23.7 0.0739 2019/1/1 KRICT/MIT 24.2 0.0955 2019/6/1 ANU 21.6 1.0235 2019/7/1 KRICT/MIT(tiedw/KoreaU)25.2 0.0937 2020/7/28 UNIST 25.5 0.095 2021/12/3 UNIST 25.7 0.096 NREL CEO 100MW 0.9/W PERC 71.4%TOPCon/HJT 63%1GW 0.8/W 17%2.4m 0.70.75/W PERC 60%TOPCon/HJT 52%100MW 45 3 20MW 5050 100MW 1.21 1GW 5 9.6-12 99.9999%99%5%150 0.12 kWh/W 1500 1.52kWh/W 2023 03 24 P.17 38 39 40 PERC TOPCon HJT 3.5 2.3 1.6 0.17 1.52kWh/W/0.12kWh/W/GW 3.45 1GW 3000/GW 4/GW 1.5-1.6 2-2.5 4/GW 0.63/GW 9.6 10-10.6 12 25 ManzTurnkey 50 Turnkey 5/W 1.51-1.6 1.7-1.85 1.85-2.27 7-8 4 1 2021/kWh,20 0.35-0.4 0.45 0.5 0.7-1.4 0.3 10 0.23 20 2.4.2 1cm2 809.8cm 19.9%T80 80%4000 25 300 450 750 500 6003000 305095751900005000100001500020000250003000020MW 100MW 1GW合成系统 封装系统 钙钛矿产 线设备 基建 2023 03 24 P.18 41(cm2)2020 802 17.90%2018 703 11.70%2018 277 17.30%Newport 2021 20 20.20%2021/2022 19.35 21.80%JET 2019 1300 13.50%T V 2018 3600/2021 63.98 20.50%JET 2022 756 18.20%JET 2023 809.80 19.90%JET 2020 46.2 18.07%T V 2023 61.58 20.08%T V 1 2 3 4 42 1 80 2 3 4 J-V 1 2 3 2023 03 24 P.19 43 CH3NH3PbI3 44 45 46 2.4.3 TCO TCO 2023 3 17 380MW GW 28.5GW 3 TCO 2023 03 24 P.20 47 2023 3 17 100MW 2021 100MW GW 10MW 100MW 2022 10MW 100MW 150MW 10GW 150MW 2022 12 8 2023 2023 GW 2026 10GW 10GW 60 1 200MW 10GW 100MW 5GW 54.6 5GW 2.2GW 200MW 2.2GW 10MW 100MW 2023 60cm 120cm 100MW 2024 10MW 100MW 10MW 2 100MW 1GW 10.36 1GW 10 380MW 28.5GW 2023 03 24 P.21 3 First Solar 3.1 TCO 2025 1.4 First Solar+BIPV+TCO 2025 TCO 1.4 1 First Solar 2025 20GW 22%TCO 9000 3GW 16%2025 18%TCO 1600 2 2025 1GW 2025 15%TCO 600 48 TCO 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW First Solar-7.9 9.4 11.2 16 20 Toledo Solar-0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 0.13 0.5 1 2 3 0.1 0.5 1 0.13 0.5 1.1 2.5 4 First Solar 19%19%20%21%22%Toledo Solar 16%16%17%17%18%16%16%17%17%18%8%10%13%15%TCO/GW First Solar 526.3 526.3 500.0 476.2 454.5 Toledo Solar 625.0 618.0 595.7 574.9 555.6 625.0 618.0 595.7 574.9 555.6 1250.0 967.7 789.5 666.7 TCO First Solar 4157.9 4947.4 5600.0 7619.0 9090.9 Toledo Solar 62.5 61.8 357.4 632.4 888.9 81.3 309.0 595.7 1149.9 1666.7 96.8 394.7 666.7 81.3 309.0 692.5 1544.6 2333.3 4382.9 5627.2 7342.4 11340.7 14646.5 3.2 TCO First Solar First Solar TCO 2023 03 24 P.22 First Solar 3 TCO 2+1 2024 3 First Solar First Solar First Solar 2018 3 TCO 2+1 2023 1 TCO TCO NSG TEC 7 49 First Solar TCO First Solar 50 TCO mm%/TCO 3.2 4.0 80 10 8 TCO 3.2 4.0 80-81 12 8 NSG TEC 5 3.2 80 5 5 NSG TEC 7 2.2 3.0 3.2 80-81.5 2 6-8 NSG TEC 10 2.2 3.2 83-84.5 1 9-11 NSG TEC 15 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.2 4.0 83-84.5 0.5 12-14 NSG TEC 15 5.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 82-83 0.5 12-14 NSG TEC 50 6 80-85 0.55 43-53 NSG TEC 70 3.2 4.0 82-84 0.5 58-72 NSG TEC 100 3.2 4.0 83-84 0.5 125-145 NSG TEC 250 3.2 4.0 84-85 0.7 260-325 NSG TEC 1000 3.2 88 0.5 1000-3000 TCO 2022 1 TCO 2-3 2023 03 24 P.23 2 A 2010 TCO TCO 3 First Solar TCO TCO TCO TCO TCO First Solar 10 2022 5 TCO 1GW 500/TCO 2010 TCO 2015 2022 12 TCO TCO 51 TCO TCO 2 TCO TCO 4 FTO TCO A TCO TCO 2010 TCO 2018 TCO 2010 TCO 2015 2022 12 TCO 2010 TCO ITO TCO 600 TCO 1 31 2023 03 24 P.24 4 TCO 1 TCO First Solar First Solar 2 TCO 2015 2022 TCO TCO BIPV TCO 2023 03 24 P.25“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
