20230404_银河证券_零售&化妆品行业证券研究报告：科技从营销、研发等多角度助力行业创新发展_29页.pdf
table_research&2023 4 4&1 2 3 2023 1-2 656 3.8%2023 4 2022 2023 1-3 2023(%)PE(TTM)()600315.SH-7.69%43 203.66 603605.SH 1.11%73 515.58 300740.SZ-8.83%26 55.29 300957.SZ-12.15%52 543.18 Wind zhenweixuan_ S0130520050002 2023.04.03 Wind 2023.04.03 table_reort Wind&_&_&_ _20221014&_ _20220729-35.00%-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%2022-01-042022-01-122022-01-202022-01-282022-02-142022-02-222022-03-022022-03-102022-03-182022-03-282022-04-072022-04-152022-04-252022-05-062022-05-162022-05-242022-06-012022-06-102022-06-202022-06-282022-07-062022-07-142022-07-222022-08-012022-08-092022-08-172022-08-252022-09-022022-09-132022-09-212022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-12-292023-01-092023-01-172023-02-012023-02-092023-02-172023-02-272023-03-072023-03-152023-03-232023-03-31-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 /&2.4.4.5.6.8.8.12 2022.13.18.19.19.20.22.22.24.25 ZXAZzQnQmPmNrPsRmRrOoPaQdN9PsQpPtRoNeRoOqMfQmMpR8OqQyQNZnOzQxNmMpQ/&3 GB/T4754-2017 A 20 4 2 10 5 38 4911.T OR.PA LVMH MC.PA 090430.KS 0.28%0.34%1 Wind 2%Wind 3 Wind 2023/03/31 4 Wind 2023/03/31 2021FY 050000100000150000200000250000 0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%7,597.42 2,308.69 383.59 80.37-1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2023.03.31 2021-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500(PROCTER&GAMBLE)LVMH(UNILEVER)(COLGATE)(CLOROX)2023.03.31 2021-20 40 60 80 100 120/&4 2021 5686.05 2022 6164.33 2014-2021 10.93%2021 9.18%/6.78%/5.76%/4.58%GDP 2008 2009 3.14%2010 2011 2016 2010-2011 2.57%2011-2016 2.53%-2.58%2016 2020 4.32%2021 4.05%2022 3 5 2022 Q2 1.00%2022 12 1.8%19.3%4.50%0.2%12 4 618 2023 1 2 77067 3.5%1 2 656 3.8%2 307.70 33.77%199.64 4.19%/&5 108.06 181.24%3 3.8 618 5 2001-2022 GDP%Wind 6 2001-2022()%Wind 7%Euromonitor 8%Euromonitor-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%GDP 153.7 175.5 206.9 261.6 335.1 386.6 488.3 596.5 740.0 889.4 1102.9 1340.1 1624.9 1824.7 2049.4 2221.9 2513.7 2619.0 2992.2 3400.2 4026.0 3936.0 2.69 2.96 3.14 2.57 2.58 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.00500100015002000250030003500400045002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%/&6 9 2021 Euromonitor 10 2021 Euromonitor 11 2012-2021 Euromonitor 12 2012-2021 Euromonitor 2021 51.67%11.43%9.18%11.55%5.68%2022 11.61%5.88%2021 10.11%14.37%29.65%2022 9.05%436.31329.82844.510.34%3.31%-0.79%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%050010001500200025003000 2022E 2014-2022E 46,742.00112474.9258515.217.97%6.14%5.28%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%0.0050,000.00100,000.00150,000.00200,000.00250,000.00300,000.00 2021 2014-2021 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 LVMH LG /&7 12.37%23.67%13 2021%Euromonitor 14 2008-2022E%Euromonitor 2021 2938.06 8.78%2015-2021 10.90%2022 3169.66 7.88%80 90 80 90 2021 656.52 10.11%2015-2020 18.69%2022 715.95 9.05%,51.67%,11.55%,9.18%,4.43%,11.43%,5.68%,2.48%,3.59%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%/&8 15 2021%Euromonitor 16 2021%Euromonitor 17 2007-2022E%Euromonitor 18 2007-2022E%Euromonitor 1907 1996 1837 1988 12.2%9.1%2%2%1.9%1.2%1.1%1%1%1%1%1%0.9%0.8%0.8%0.8%,81.62%,7.01%,2.09%,1.97%,14.17%,45.52%,29.41%,0.66%,1.94%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%0.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.003000.003500.00 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00 /&9 19 2021 10%Euromonitor 12.2%9.1%1.34 2%6.1 27.1%LVMH 11.2%2.42 7.6%3.57 5.1%4.8%6.8%6.4%10 4-11 2&-7 5 5.7%5.3%4.9%3.8%3.4%5 23.1%12.29.15.43.52.82 2 21.91.71.21.1 1.11 1 1 1 1 10.90.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.80.702468101214/&10 1 20 2021%Euromonitor 21 2021%Euromonitor 22 2021%Euromonitor 23 2021%Euromonitor 2012-2021-4.92.6pct+1.6pct+0.6%+1.0%0 5 10 15 20 LGLVMH 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 LG LVMH 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 SK-IIOlay 0 2 4 6 8 3CE MAC /&11-3.0pct/-2.6pct+2.9pct/+2.8pct+3.0pct/+1.0pct/+1.7pct/+0.7pct+0.6pct,+1.7pct+1.0pct-3.6pct YSL+0.63.5pct+6.5pct+5.9pct 24 2012-2021 20%Euromonitor 25 2012-2021 20+%Euromonitor 26 2012-2021 20%Euromonitor 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 SK-II 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 SK-II 0.05.010.015.020.025.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Mac 3CE /&12 1.2021 67.7 27 2021 Euromonitor 28 2016-2022Q1 Wind 050100150200250300350400450500-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.002016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-01/&13 2.3.30 2022 1.22Q3 Q4 2022Q3 364.06 5.19%2013 2017 2022Q3 20.72 44.73%2017 618 2022Q3 30-40%10-11 /&14 12 19.3%2023 2022 29%Wind 30%Wind 2.2022Q3 705.34 2022Q3 30.98%2013 30%-45%14%2022Q3 14.19%2017 2022Q3 2021 5.34/-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0100200300400500600-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%-30-20-1001020304050 /&15 31%Wind 32%Wind 3.1.10 2016 2018 2022Q3 1.09 1 33%Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0100200300400500600700800 0123456789100%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 0.951.001.051.101.151.201.252007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3/&16 4.22Q3 ROE ROE 2015 ROE 10%ROE ROE ROE 6%2013 1.11 2017 2022Q3 ROE 4.26%1.45 0.53 5.60%ROE 34 ROE%Wind 35 ROE%Wind 2022 2022 2023 1-3 2023 1 2022 300957.SZ 2022 50.14 24.65%10.51 21.82%9.51 17.00%7.69 33.25%600315.SH 2022 71.06 7.06%47,203.93,27.29%54,068.78 20.01%688363.SH 2022 63.59 28.53%9.7 24.00%8.63 30.06%300896.SZ 2022 19.4 14.48 33.91%2022 12.64 9.58 31.9%12 9.15 30.92%2022 4.49 2.71 2.32-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3ROE-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.00.51.01.52.02.52007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 /&17 600655.SH 2022 501.18 3.57%38.26 1.52%1.62 94.22%301076.SZ 2022 3.98 16.39%1.07 61.32%56.53%13.43%8.28%002243.SZ 2022 26.18 12.99%4.17 33.94%2022 16.533 63.16%5.09%0001.HK 175.79(154.69),23%,EBITDA 10.9(9.59)02367.HK 2022 23.64 52.3%10.02 21%2145.HK 2022 26.75 26.1%1.37 59.5%BEI.DF 2022 87.99 644 15.4%Consumer 71.31 522 16.3%UNVB.DF Q4 146 11.4%601 14.5%83 24.9%108 23.6%17.9%130 3RB.DF 2022 144.53 1194.71 9.2%38.3 316.6 14%Natura&Co NTCO.N 2022 Natura&Co 363.50 475 9.5%232 303 11.0%28.60 37 372.9%Aesop 27.19 36 4.6%NTCO.N Natura&Co 103.9 136 10.8%EBITDA 10.5%280 Aesop YSG.N 10.1 Non-GAAP 3468 3.4%Non-GAAP Q4 4.7 42.4%46.9%30%IFF.N 2022 IFF 124.4 7%3.54 16.3 EBITDA 2.46 2022 28.4 6%KER.PA 2022 203.51 9%37.47 274 11%7%14%REVRQ.OO 2022 2022 4.7%19.8 8000 22.6%6.74 5.9 4.1%1.79 LRLCY.OO 2022 382.6 2784 18.5%2019 23.4%57.13 416 24.1%2020 10 Ulta beauty ULTA.O Ulta beauty 2022 18.2%32 17.8%3.408 2022 18.2%102 100 26%12 4452.T 2022 2022 1 1 12 31 15511(809.2)9.3%877(45.75)21.2%4.3%11933(612)4922.T 2022 2022 2891 148.89 7.5%221 11.38 41.1%2022 962 49.54 7.5%26%/&18 4911.T 2022 10673.55 547 5.7%465.72 23.88 53.7%342.02 17.54 27.1%0NOF.L 2023 207.73 1049.65 1%39.33 268.66 7%Sally Beauty Holdings SBH.N Sally Beauty Holdings 2023 9.57 2.4%395 14%9100 9.5%EL.N 2023 2022 12 31 17%46.2 64%3.94 25%9%3%1%2023 5%7%12%14%COTY.N 2023 1%29 23%3.6 12 31 3%15.23 Gucci 5%24%2.35 300856.SZ 2022 36,000.00-40,000.00 170.95%-201.05%002612.SZ 2022 2022 2,000 3,000 18,744.89 84%89.33%2022 900 1,350 18,415.77 92.67%95.11%300132.SZ 2022 6.8 7.8 9.12 600223.SH 2022 1809.50 5428.51 30761.57 34380.58 85%95%2022 1 6 67.8%20.94%4.36%3.29%000523.SZ 2022 20 30-8500-5750 105.84%103.95%603605.SH 2023 1 2 2023 1 2 7.9 25%0.8 33%2023 3 GMV 2 1.1 2 2./&19 3.3 4 30 4.2023 20230331 0.89%5.48%5.02%22 5 618 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 1 2 3 PE PS 2022 3 PE 300 5 PE 6 2023 3 31 60X PS 2022 3 5X 2023 3 31 PE TTM PS /&20 36 2022%Wind 37 Wind 2017 3 20 2023 3 31 0.39%0.28%38%Wind 39 Wind A 20172022Q3 20 369.81 0.11%5.03%2015 2020 2022Q3 20.72 0.04%-35.00%-30.00%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%2022-01-042022-01-122022-01-202022-01-282022-02-142022-02-222022-03-022022-03-102022-03-182022-03-282022-04-072022-04-152022-04-252022-05-062022-05-162022-05-242022-06-012022-06-102022-06-202022-06-282022-07-062022-07-142022-07-222022-08-012022-08-092022-08-172022-08-252022-09-022022-09-132022-09-212022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-12-292023-01-092023-01-172023-02-012023-02-092023-02-172023-02-272023-03-072023-03-152023-03-232023-03-31 3.66-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000-500050010000.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00PS PS PE PE 0.00%0.05%0.10%0.15%0.20%0.25%0.30%0.35%0.40%0.45%0.50%05101520252004-12-312005-03-312005-06-302005-09-302005-12-312006-03-312006-06-302006-09-302006-12-312007-03-312007-06-302007-09-302007-12-312008-03-312008-06-302008-09-302008-12-312009-03-312009-06-302009-09-302009-12-312010-03-312010-06-302010-09-302010-12-312011-03-312011-06-302011-09-302011-12-312012-03-312012-06-302012-09-302012-12-312013-03-312013-06-302013-09-302013-12-312014-03-312014-06-302014-09-302014-12-312015-03-312015-06-302015-09-302015-12-312016-03-312016-06-302016-09-302016-12-312017-03-312017-06-302017-09-302017-12-312018-03-312018-06-302018-09-302018-12-312019-03-312019-06-302019-09-302019-12-312020-03-312020-06-302020-09-302020-12-312021-03-312021-06-302021-09-302021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-31 00.20.40.60.811.20.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%2004-12-312005-03-312005-06-302005-09-302005-12-312006-03-312006-06-302006-09-302006-12-312007-03-312007-06-302007-09-302007-12-312008-03-312008-06-302008-09-302008-12-312009-03-312009-06-302009-09-302009-12-312010-03-312010-06-302010-09-302010-12-312011-03-312011-06-302011-09-302011-12-312012-03-312012-06-302012-09-302012-12-312013-03-312013-06-302013-09-302013-12-312014-03-312014-06-302014-09-302014-12-312015-03-312015-06-302015-09-302015-12-312016-03-312016-06-302016-09-302016-12-312017-03-312017-06-302017-09-302017-12-312018-03-312018-06-302018-09-302018-12-312019-03-312019-06-302019-09-302019-12-312020-03-312020-06-302020-09-302020-12-312021-03-312021-06-302021-09-302021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-31+1 SD-1 SD/&21 2023.03.31 0.31%1.80 1/PE 1/PE 10-1.86%-1.16%-1.47%2022 2007 2015 Beta A beta 1 beta beta 1 0.97 2014 2023.03.31 beta 0.90 40 Wind 41 Wind 42%Wind 43%Wind 0.00%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.08%0.10%0.12%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00-0.08%-0.06%-0.04%-0.02%0.00%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.08%0.10%0.12%0.14%-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 00.20.40.60.811.20.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%1.60%2005-06-302005-09-302005-12-312006-03-312006-06-302006-09-302006-12-312007-03-312007-06-302007-09-302007-12-312008-03-312008-06-302008-09-302008-12-312009-03-312009-06-302009-09-302009-12-312010-03-312010-06-302010-09-302010-12-312011-03-312011-06-302011-09-302011-12-312012-03-312012-06-302012-09-302012-12-312013-03-312013-06-302013-09-302013-12-312014-03-312014-06-302014-09-302014-12-312015-03-312015-06-302015-09-302015-12-312016-03-312016-06-302016-09-302016-12-312017-03-312017-06-302017-09-302017-12-312018-03-312018-06-302018-09-302018-12-312019-03-312019-06-302019-09-302019-12-312020-03-312020-06-302020-09-302020-12-312021-03-312021-06-302021-09-302021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-31+1 SD-1 SD00.20.40.60.811.20.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.002005-06-302005-09-302005-12-312006-03-312006-06-302006-09-302006-12-312007-03-312007-06-302007-09-302007-12-312008-03-312008-06-302008-09-302008-12-312009-03-312009-06-302009-09-302009-12-312010-03-312010-06-302010-09-302010-12-312011-03-312011-06-302011-09-302011-12-312012-03-312012-06-302012-09-302012-12-312013-03-312013-06-302013-09-302013-12-312014-03-312014-06-302014-09-302014-12-312015-03-312015-06-302015-09-302015-12-312016-03-312016-06-302016-09-302016-12-312017-03-312017-06-302017-09-302017-12-312018-03-312018-06-302018-09-302018-12-312019-03-312019-06-302019-09-302019-12-312020-03-312020-06-302020-09-302020-12-312021-03-312021-06-302021-09-302021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-31+1 SD-1 SD/&22 44%Wind 45 beta%Wind A 600315.SH 603605.SH 300740.SZ 603983.SH 688363.SH 300957.SZ 603630.SH 002919.SZ 000523.SZ 603059.SH 600249.SH 002094.SZ 300856.SZ 300132.SZ 600223.SH 300955.SZ 300792.SZ 605136.SH 003010.SZ 301001.SZ 301110.SZ 02367.HK 2145.HK 0157.HK 6601.HK 6993.HK 2035-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%2008-03-312008-06-302008-09-302008-12-312009-03-312009-06-302009-09-302009-12-312010-03-312010-06-302010-09-302010-12-312011-03-312011-06-302011-09-302011-12-312012-03-312012-06-302012-09-302012-12-312013-03-312013-06-302013-09-302013-12-312014-03-312014-06-302014-09-302014-12-312015-03-312015-06-302015-09-302015-12-312016-03-312016-06-302016-09-302016-12-312017-03-312017-06-302017-09-302017-12-312018-03-312018-06-302018-09-302018-12-312019-03-312019-06-302019-09-302019-12-312020-03-312020-06-302020-09-302020-12-312021-03-312021-06-302021-09-302021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-31+1 SD-1 SD00.20.40.60.811.20.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.602005-07-312005-11-302006-03-312006-07-312006-11-302007-03-312007-07-312007-11-302008-03-312008-07-312008-11-302009-03-312009-07-312009-11-302010-03-312010-07-312010-11-302011-03-312011-07-312011-11-302012-03-312012-07-312012-11-302013-03-312013-07-312013-11-302014-03-312014-07-312014-11-302015-03-312015-07-312015-11-302016-03-312016-07-312016-11-302017-03-312017-07-312017-11-302018-03-312018-07-312018-11-302019-03-312019-07-312019-11-302020-03-312020-07-312020-11-302021-03-312021-07-312021-11-302022-03-312022-07-312022-11-302023-03-31+1 SD-1 SD/&23 2025 200 100 3 5 50 10 10 50%(2020-2025)2025 2000 100 3 5 25%2025 2022 12 1 2023 3 1 61 2 24 3 24 2023 3 27 2023 34 2023 2023 1-2 77067 3.5%2023 1-2 656 3.8%2 307.70 33.77%199.64 4.19%108.06 181.24%3 30 CiE 2023 /&24 2022 2023 1-3 300957.SZ 2022 600315.SH 600223.SH 000523.SZ 2021 2023 600315.SH 603605.SH 300740.SZ 300957.SZ 3 2023%600315.SH 25%-6.97%-7.69%/&25 603605.SH 25%9.97%1.11%300740.SZ+25%-13.96%-8.83%300957.SZ 25%-21.19%-12.15%Wind 46 2022 Wind-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 /&26 1.3 2%.3 3.3 4.3 5 2001-2022 GDP%.5 6 2001-2022()%.5 7%.5 8%.5 9 2021.6 10 2021.6 11 2012-2021.6 12 2012-2021.6 13 2021%.7 14 2008-2022E%.7 15 2021%.8 16 2021%.8 17 2007-2022E%.8 18 2007-2022E%.8 19 2021 10%.9 20 2021%.10 21 2021%.10 22 2021%.10 23 2021%.10 24 2012-2021 20%.11 25 2012-2021 20+%.11 26 2012-2021 20%.11 27 2021.12 28 2016-2022Q1.12 29%.14 30%.14 31%.15 32%.15 33%.15 34 ROE%.16 35 ROE%.16 36 2022%.20 37.20 38%.20 39.20 /&27 40.21 41.21 42%.21 43%.21 44%.22 45 beta%.22 46 2022.25 1.16 2.17 3.24 /&28 2018 5 6-12 20%10%6-12 20%6-12 10%20%6-12 6-12 10%table_avow table_contact 3088 20 0755-83479312 suyiyun_ 0755-83471683
