20230327_华安证券_叉车行业证券研究报告：电动化助推叉车行业高速增长把握经济复苏下的投资机遇_34页.pdf
Table_Summary 72%(PMI)2025 678 TOP10 8 7 8 2021 25%23%2011-2021 33.3%55.8%2025 162 2025 678 2021 22.5%2022 28.2%2025 41%2050 60%2021 AGV 94.29%6800 1 2 AGV 1 2 3 4 Table_StockNameRptType Table_Rank 2023-3-27 300 Table_Author S0010522070003-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%300 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 2/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.7 2.11 2.1.11 2.2 2025 678.12 2.3.15 3.18 3.1.18 3.2.19 3.2 AI.22 4.23 4.1.23 4.2.27.32 XVDWxOsPnOnMqOoNtOrOpO7NaO9PtRoOpNpMkPrRtQiNoMuM7NnNuMvPmPrOvPsQwO 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 3/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1.5 2.6 3 2020.7 4.7 5 GDP.8 6(PMI).8 7.9 8 2010-2021.9 9.9 10 2016-2021 65.10 11.10 12 2021 TOP 10.11 13 2021.12 14.12 15 2011-2021.13 16 2011-2021.13 17 2015-2021.13 18.14 19 2015-2025.15 20 2022-2025.15 21 2015-2022.16 22 2015-2022.16 23 2022.16 24 2022.16 25.17 26.17 27 3.18 28 2025 41%.19 29.20 30 2021 50%.20 31 2050 60%.22 32.23 33.24 34.25 35.25 36.25 37 2021 19%.25 38.26 39.26 40.26 41.26 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 4/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 42.28 43.28 44 2018 2022Q1-Q3.29 45 2018 2022Q1-Q3.29 46.29 47.30 48.30 49.30 50.30 51 WIND.31 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 5/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1 1.1 1 2 3 1 1 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 6/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2 3 4 5 1.2 2 90%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 7/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 20.48%12.39%9.79%20.48%51.56%2.5:1 3 2020 1.3 72%6-8 1-2 3-4 4 WIND 20.48%12.39%9.79%8.25%7.09%5.45%4.54%4.05%27.97%02468102016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 8/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1 I+IV+V(PMI)GDP 2011-2021 PMI 5 GDP WIND 6(PMI)Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%GDP%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2011-012011-052011-092012-012012-052012-092013-012013-052013-092014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-09PMI%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 9/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 II+III 2010-2021 125.40 335.20 2020 2021 1000 1083 2011-2021 5.3 54.5 CAGR 26%2022-2021 2020 2021 42%63%7 WIND 8 2010-2021 9 WIND WIND 5.3 5.0 5.6 6.8 8.2 10.2 15.1 21.8 23.5 33.4 54.5-6%11%23%20%24%48%45%8%42%63%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00 YoY%-50%0%50%100%150%200%2011-012011-102012-072013-042014-012014-102015-072016-042017-012017-102018-072019-042020-012020-102021-07%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 10/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2 2021 65 14.2%.2021 6.80 10 2016-2021 65 11 10.8%11.4%11.9%12.6%13.5%14.2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%05000100001500020000250002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202165%7.3%6.4%6.5%5.7%9.3%8.2%5.1%10.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%020000400006000080000 YoY%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 11/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2 2.1 TOP10 8 1917 50 2021 TOP10 8 7 8 2021 159.23 24.09 6.6 12 2021 TOP 10 2022 15 10000 20 5000 25 3000 32 2000 2021 25%23%10 20 1 159.23 126.71 25.70%2 73.76 69.24 6.50%3 55.13 45.50 21.20%4 40.44 37.86 6.80%5 40.10 36.20 10.80%6 30.75 28.12 9.40%7 24.09 19.30 24.80%8 22.73 12.68 79.30%9 13.51 9.03 49.40%10 12.52 12.52 0.00%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 12/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 13 2021 14 2.2 2025 678 2011 94 2021 197 7.66%2021 2020 24.4%2015-2021 2011-2021 31 110 CAGR 13.36%33.3%55.8%100 10-100 23%22%25%28%25%21%21%23%26%23%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 13/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 15 2011-2021 16 2011-2021 2015-2021 18.5 41.2 2019 2020 2021 67.36%17 2015-2021 1 2023 GDP 5.0%2023 2024 GDP 5.0%2025 GDP 5.0%PPI 2023 2023 PPI-0.4%2024 2025 2%0.2%4.8%7.5%0.1%8.3%15.7%11.7%0.3%6.0%24.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%050100150200250%-8.0%13.9%9.4%-8.9%13.0%34.2%20.2%1.9%31.5%37.4%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00 YoY%18.5 19.0 22.5 28.2 26.2 24.6 41.2 2.8%18.7%25.2%-7.2%-5.9%67.3%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0510152025303540452015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 14/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2 GDP GDP PPI GDP+PPI GDP 3 2022 2021 3%52.6%2022 4 5 6 1/GDP 2/18 2022 2025 162 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 199436 209509 233876 255937 264137 266418 316582 335215 347283 368120 390207 5.05%11.63%9.43%3.20%0.86%18.83%5.89%3.60%6.00%6.00%7.04%6.85%6.95%6.75%6.00%2.20%8.40%3.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%-5.20%-1.40%6.30%3.50%-0.30%-1.80%8.10%4.10%-0.40%2.00%2.00%1.84%5.45%13.25%10.25%5.70%0.40%16.50%7.10%4.60%7.00%7.00%245675 268527 346033 379110 373166 466230 554588 497221 535958 579159 621713-15.69%9.30%28.86%9.56%-1.57%24.94%18.95%-10.34%7.79%8.06%7.35%75.0%72.6%69.7%63.5%61.3%58.3%50.4%47.4%44.4%41.4%38.4%38166 39985 52946 63054 63462 76257 112993 124018 155118 190788 229675-9.1%4.8%32.4%19.1%0.6%20.2%48.2%9.8%25.1%23.0%20.4%207509 228542 293087 316056 309704 389973 441595 373203 380840 388371 392038-16.8%10.1%28.2%7.8%-2.0%25.9%13.2%-15.5%2.0%2.0%0.9%15.5%14.9%15.3%16.6%17.0%16.4%20.4%24.9%28.9%32.9%36.9%84.5%85.1%84.7%83.4%83.0%83.6%79.6%75.1%71.1%67.1%63.1%1.232 1.282 1.480 1.481 1.413 1.750 1.752 1.483 1.543 1.573 1.593 2066637 3128315 4005592 5071043 6352291 8335789 10829641 11058122 12931262 15495169 18500023 51.4%28.0%26.6%25.3%31.2%29.9%2.1%16.9%19.8%19.4%81951 101540 150705 218042 235175 334009 544794 550764 669921 818242 995418 20.1%23.9%48.4%44.7%7.9%42.0%63.1%1.1%21.6%22.1%21.7%25.0%27.4%30.3%36.5%38.7%41.7%49.6%52.6%55.6%58.6%61.6%7661 8477 10247 12088 9323 11077 15573 22353 27859 34845 43385 24.0%10.7%20.9%18.0%-22.9%18.8%40.6%43.5%24.6%25.1%24.5%74290 93063 140458 205954 225852 322932 529221 528411 642062 783397 952032 19.7%25.3%50.9%46.6%9.7%43.0%63.9%-0.2%21.5%22.0%21.5%9.3%8.3%6.8%5.5%4.0%3.3%2.9%4.1%4.2%4.3%4.4%90.7%91.7%93.2%94.5%96.0%96.7%97.1%95.9%95.8%95.7%95.6%0.040 0.032 0.038 0.043 0.037 0.040 0.050 0.050 0.052 0.053 0.054 120117 141525 203651 281096 298637 410266 657787 674782 825039 1009030 1225092 9.0%17.8%43.9%38.0%6.2%37.4%60.3%2.6%22.3%22.3%21.4%36.7%38.2%41.0%47.1%49.1%51.3%59.8%64.4%68.4%72.2%75.8%327626 370067 496738 597152 608341 800239 1099382 1047985 1205879 1397401 1617130-8.9%13.0%34.2%20.2%1.9%31.5%37.4%-4.7%15.1%15.9%15.7%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 15/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 19 2015-2025 2022 11 3 3%6 5.5 1.5 2022-2025 2025 678 20 2022-2025 2.3 2022 35%2015-2022 9.2 36.2 CAGR 21.6%2021 73.8%2022 2022 36.15 33 37 50 60 61 80 110 105 121 140 162 13.0%34.2%20.2%1.9%31.5%37.4%-4.7%15.1%15.9%15.7%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.00 YoY%2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 12.40 15.51 19.08 22.97 11.00 11.33 11.67 12.02YoY%0.03 0.03 0.03 136.42 175.75 222.65 276.07 37.32 38.08 38.84 39.20 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 223.92 228.50 233.02 235.22 2.24 2.79 3.48 4.34 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 12.29 15.32 19.16 23.86 52.84 64.21 78.34 95.20 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 79.26 96.31 117.51 142.80 451.90 515.88 592.34 677.96 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 16/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2015 28%2022 34%21 2015-2022 22 2015-2022 Interact Analysis 2022 2022 6 12 1 3 6 3-6 Interact Analysis 2022 23 2022 24 2022 9.2 10.2 12.6 16.7 15.3 18.2 31.6 36.2-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY%28%28%25%28%25%23%28%34%0%20%40%60%80%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 17/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 Interact Analysis Interact Analysis 150 2021 19%20%25 26 Wind Wind 83.57%82.49%82.87%84.21%79.85%15.75%16.70%16.60%14.80%19.18%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 77.97%77.01%79.26%83.04%72.39%17.75%19.47%18.35%15.23%20.45%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 18/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 3 3.1,3 3 27 3 2025 41%2011 15.4%2021 22.6%2022 28%2023-2025 32.5%/36.7%/41.1%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 19/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 28 2025 41%3.2 1&2 80V/575AH 80V/378AH 8 30.2 3.77/3 4&5 2-3 15.4%17.1%15.2%16.2%18.1%17.5%17.7%19.2%19.0%18.3%22.5%28.2%32.5%36.7%41.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.00 I+II%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 20/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 29 GGII 2021 50%2017 8681 2021 33.26 CAGR 148.80%2017 4.3%2021 50.6%30 2021 50%4.3%9.3%25.0%39.3%50.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 21/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1 2 2018-2021 100%EVTank 2025 60%2021 51%1-3 8-10 30 50 4 3.2 10 3 2020 9.3 2028 31.2 2030 10%20%2021 11-2030 2050 60%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 22/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 31 2050 60%Survey and interviews with Hydrogen Council member companies 3.2 AI AGV 5G AI AGV AGV AGV 2020 AGV 3500 50%2021 AGV 94.29%6800 AGV AGV 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 23/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 4 4.1 1993 1958 1 1958-1996+2 1996-2016 1996 2006 3 2016 2016 32 24 500 1,700 0.2-46 1958 1963-1982 1983 1992-1993 1996 2006 2016 2018 2019 1963 1963-1982 1992 1993,2016 3.0 2300 23%100+2020 35%AGV 2021 2-10 200 2022 20.48 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 24/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 33 2022 2022 156.73 1.66%2018-2022 CAGR 12.8%2018-2022 5.83 9.04 CAGR 11.6%2021 6.34 13.40%2022 2022 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 25/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 34 35 WIND WIND 2017-2021 13.21 29.57 CAGR 122%2021 6.38 70.42%19%36 37 2021 19%WIND WIND 2017-2019 2020 2021 2021 16.10%5.09%2022 2022 2022 Q1-Q3 16.61%6.48%96.67101.3127.97154.17156.7315.21%4.79%26.33%20.47%1.66%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0204060801001201401601802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY%5.836.517.326.349.0442.89%11.66%12.44%-13.40%42.59%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02468102018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY%70.12 79.74 83.95 107.76 123.10 13.2116.14 16.8118.9429.570.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 83.57%82.49%82.87%84.21%79.85%15.75%16.70%16.60%14.80%19.18%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 26/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 38 39 WIND WIND 2018 4%40 41 WIND WIND 2016 2021 25%1 0%5%10%15%20%25%0%5%10%15%20%25%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3.94 4.92 5.39 7.12 5.26 4.1%4.9%4.2%4.6%4.4%4%4%4%4%4%5%5%5%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 27/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2 2021 2-10 200 3 5G 5G+AGV AGV AGV FICS 4 24 500 80 150 2021 19%2020 4.2 1956 2000 2003 2010 2011 98.8%20%2016(AGV)2021 23%MMH 2017 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 28/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 42(AGV)43 1956 2000 2003 2010 2011 2016 2017 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 29/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2018-2021 84.43 144.90 CAGR 19.7%2022 Q1-Q3 113.65 3.28%2018-2021 5.47 9.08 44 2018 2022Q1-Q3 45 2018 2022Q1-Q3 WIND WIND 2021 20%2022 200%46 WIND 84.43 88.54 114.52 144.90 113.65 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00 YoY%5.476.458.389.087.460%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0246810 YoY%77.97%77.01%79.26%83.04%72.39%17.75%19.47%18.35%15.23%20.45%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 30/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 2021 3%2 2018-2022Q1-Q3 7.3%/8.1%/8.1%/6.8%/7.0%2021 2021 18.7%15.6%3%47 48 WIND WIND 5G 2018 3.05 2021 6.02 625 943 49 50 WIND WIND 1 AGV 50 2021 600 20 10 50 AGV 5 20.6%21.3%20.4%15.5%16.3%7.3%8.1%8.1%6.8%7.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%21.1%19.9%20.6%19.9%15.6%27.3%25.4%25.3%23.5%18.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3.053.595.386.024.630%1%2%3%4%5%01234567%-2%0%2%4%6%8%敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 31/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 35 2 3 4S 2021 20%51 Wind WIND 2023 3 27 2022 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 154.17 156.73 183.76 211.21 20.47%1.66%17.25%14.94%6.34 9.04 11.44 14.07-13.40%42.62%26.49%23.03%EPS 0.86 1.22 1.55 1.90 18.98 18.98 18.98 18.98 22 16 12 10 144.9 155.87 179.76 208.62 26.53%7.57%15.33%16.06%9.08 10.07 12.15 14.63 8.42%10.79%20.75%20.36%EPS 0.97 1.08 1.30 1.56 19.47 19.47 19.47 19.47 20 18 15 12 603298.SH600761.SH 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 32/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 1 2 3 4 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 33/33 证券研究报告 Table_CompanyRptType1 Table_Introduction 2 14 Table_Reputation Table_RankIntroduction 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
