20230323_东方证券_农业大宗农产品专题之内糖：拨云见日再寻周期定价锚_18页.pdf
|08/09 500-600 14/1520/21 2020 3 500600 6255/7000/5500/1000 1500 500 22/23 2.4%933 1.3%1560 627 21/22 89 265 0.4%2022/23/2023 03 23 021-63325888*6090 S0860520020002 BND809 2022-09-21 2022-03-07 2022-01-23 2.4.4.4 4 6.8.10.10.11.14.14.15 XVEVvMnQtQmNtNnOnQtMpOaQbP8OsQrRnPoNjMmMsRiNpNoNbRrQqNvPnNqRuOpMqQ 3 1.4 2 08/09 300.5 3 08/09.5 4.5 5 22/23.6 6.6 7.7 8.8 9.8 10.8 11 22/23.9 12.9 13 2022.9 14.10 15 2022/23 7.8%136.2.10 16.10 17 2.11 18 22/23.11 19 22/23.11 20 22/23.12 21 20/21.12 22.12 23 1-2 8429 9.2%.12 24 2022.13 25 2022.13 26.13 27.13 28.13 29 2 455+2.3%.14 30 2 1616-5.4%.14 1.7 2.14 4 2000 2 2020 3 2003-08 62 2003/07 2006/02 30 165.2%2006/2 2008/10 32 51.1%2008-14 71 2008/10 2011/08 34 191.4%2011/08 2014/09 37 48.9%2014-19 51 2014/09 2016/12 27 76.8%2016/12 2019/01 24 28.2%2019-50006300/1 08/09 150 Dec-20,5110Mar-23,6255Jul-03,2055Feb-06,5450Oct-08,2665Aug-11,7765Sep-14,3970Dec-16,7020Jan-19,5040Oct-19,6040150025003500450055006500750085002001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022/:5 2 08/09 300 3 08/09 Bric Bric 89%2-3 4 22/23 2021-200-100010020030002004006008001000120014001600-300-200-1000100200300400 6 5 22/23 6 08/09 300 650 4 5 USDA FAS USDA FAS 2004 194.5 15%50%812/400450/1 50%89%11%7,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,00013,00014,000:010002000300040005000600070008000-800-600-400-200020040099/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18 20/21/-0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%050010001500200099/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18 20/21 7 7 Czapp 08/0913/14 200 400 14/1516/17 2014 11 200 17/18-20/21 2017 5 22 3 50%45%40%35%300 21/22-2020 6 30 2 500600 1 2014.03.19 2014.11.01 2017.5.22 3 2017 5 22 2020 5 21 45%40%35%2020.5.22 2020.6.30 0100200300400500600700800900/8 2020.12.21 2021 1 3 8 6255/7000/5500/9 10 Bric Bric-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,000Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22/200040006000800010000120002009 2012 2015 2018 2021/9 2 1 2 265 0.4%11 22/23 2021/22 534 15.6%100 21/22 112.7 39.7%65%73 2021 2021 1 1 0 50%12 13 2022 HS 170290111702901217029090 0100200300400500600700Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/230.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.0010 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 18/19 19/20 20/2121/22 22/23 85%8%4%3%10 14 Bric 1000 140 2022/23 7.8%136.2 116 20 59 3/12 1%5070 3 4.8/60/12.5%57.08/4.5%15 2022/23 7.8%136.2 16 22/23 2.4%933 5.2%825 25.6%108 2 40004500500055006000650070007500/-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%02040608010012014016014/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 YoY YoY10%11%11%12%12%13%13%505254565860626414/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23/11 17 2 2 791+10.2%2022/23 2 40 34 2020/21 24 33 18 22/23 19 22/23 1500 22/23 1560 1.3%2 54%46%982785824916944902913870825748510511513213915486108-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%70075080085090095010001050110014/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 YoY020040060080010001200Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 18/19 19/20 20/2121/22 22/230510152025303540454604805005205405605802020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2 12 20 22/23 21 20/21 1.3 11%1-2 8429 9.2%22 23 1-2 8429 9.2%45%15%12%8.5%5%3%1.5%32%16%17%12%2022 5.7%11.1%5.7%3.3%0.7%2023 7.6%882 11.3%3.9%7.4%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%1,4401,4601,4801,5001,5201,5401,5601,58014/1515/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/23 YoY 11%35%54%1.24 1.30 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.31 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.181.201.221.241.261.281.301.321.342013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:-60-40-20020406080100%:13 24 2022 25 2022 26 6-9 8-9 2022/23 2 99+56.9%336+23.1%42.5%4.5pct 27 28 0%10%20%30%40%50%32%16%17%12%5%1%3%14%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 0.050.0100.0150.0200.0Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep18/19 19/20 20/2121/22 22/23020040060080010001200Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 18/19 19/20 20/2121/22 22/23 14 21/22 90.7%89 2 455+2.3%1616-5.4%29 2 455+2.3%30 2 1616-5.4%Bric 2022/23(000911)(600737)2 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2022/23 Est.Mar Proj.Feb Proj.Mar()1,441 1,380 1,453 1,263 1,362 1,362 0.0%+7.8%(/62 59 58 60 59 57-4.2%-4.7%12%13%13%13%12%12%-0.4%-0.6%1,076 1,041 1,067 956 1,005 933-7.2%-2.4%324 376 634 533 500 500 0.0%-6.2%1,520 1,500 1,550 1,540 1,560 1,560 0.0%+1.3%19 18 13 16 18 18 0.0%+12.5%-140-100 138-67-73-145(/)5253.0 5565.0 5378.0 5706.0 5650-6000 5650-6200(/)5229.5 5056.0 5422.2 6137.6 6090-6920 6090-7197 Bric 0100200300400500600700Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 18/19 19/20 20/2121/22 22/2350070090011001300150017001900Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 18/19 19/20 20/2121/22 22/23 15 16 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%1%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
