20230320_国海证券_生活美容行业深度报告：技术迭代业态创新_46页.pdf
()()S0350521120001 S()2023 03 20 2 EPS PE 3 17 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E2279.HK 8.30.29-0.16 0.19 25.22/38.49 未评级4137.TW-KY 20717.5 9.93 15.39 11.83 20.85 13.45 未评级2373.HK 27.21.94 0.42 1.05 12.35 57.06 22.82 未评级 EPS EPS 1=0.88107-KY Wind Wind=0.88107 ZXDWwPtOpMpOqOnOmRqPrQbR9RaQtRrRsQtQiNoOsRfQnPqRbRrRxPvPsRpMxNmRsM3 5 1980 2000 2000 2012 2012 2016 O2O 2016 2018 2018 2022 2019 3.6%/11%/17%/21%2017 89%50 0.1%5 30 CR5 1.5%+2016 2018 2019 2017 O2O 4 250350 14 30 700/2300/20 28/+20 50%+(10+)10%+2+87 120 96 180/120 144/(2373.HK)-KY(4137.TW)(2279.HK)5-+6 1.1+1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.1 72.2 2.3 2.4 2.5+SKU 2.6 2.7+3.1+3.2 83.3+3.4+3.5 3.6+3.7 4.1+4.2 4.3 94.4 4.5+4.6 10 11 31 50 83%400-1500 800-1500 A 73.0%76.0%21 40 67.0%4000-20000 9000-20000 2000-10000 4000-10000 10000 200000 CAGR 2016-2019 2020-2030E24.9%17.6%24.9%18.3%9.4%5.6%1.1+3,1323,4513,7834,097 4,0324,3544,653 4,6534,9345,2005,4545,7005,9396,1736,4021,1891,428 1,4281,6961,9922,3222,6953,1253,6134,16624303746577084 1002016 20191884012021E3085002017 2018 2026E6005,6137739,2821622022E 2020 2023E6,1812028E1183,8822024E1392182025E 2027E2527,3312029E4,8622902030E3,4644,3206,7484,7436,1657,9388,58310,03810,858 2016-2030 121.2 Fastdata 2022 SPA 20-35 APP 131.3 2020-2021 4%7%12%54%13%47%15%16%6%61%15%11%9%15%66%15%14%10%5%6%502-4 5-20 21-50 2017 10 10 10 5-10 20 2017 54%50 9%89%+5 30 CR5 1.5%0.2%0.6%0.3%0.2%0.2%2021 3%87%10%90%3%85%12%89%9%2%8%2%2-4 205-20 2017 14 2020-2021 2017(2020)90 90 46%55%45%2020 123 1.4 151.5 6 6.3%5 3.2%4 1.0%5 8.1%8 1.3%4,5 4 22,5 6 01,3 9 4 565 2020 2020-2021 2019 QuestMobile 2020 6.7 2 3 0.52 1.71 6.91 6.15 0.7 2020 20193.6%20141 5.7%2020E1 0.3%2.4%1 8.2%1 1.0%1 6.6%2 0.5%3.9%1 1.1%1 6.8%2 1.0%2014&2019&2020E 2019 3.6%2023 2022 40.4%16.3%15%16 17 LOGO 4700 34 1989 1997 2013 RnD 177 160 1993 2022 150 1998 SIYANLI THALGO DELAROM BIOYAYA 200 2007 1342 4 1972 1992 2002 SPA 565 1999 3 300 2001 2.1 2023 2 27 LOGO 182.2 200+75 200+20-60 60-200 120-150 10-20 30 beauty up 70-100 25.8 45 40 2016-2018 2020 2019 30 2016 80/90 400 2018 A 19126(45%)154(55%)2020 2019161(51%)152(49%)177(53%)313280160(47%)20213370.9(5%)0.7(5%)12.9(94%)20200.9(6%)201914.1(95%)16.6(95%)2021C AG R+1 3%139160&15&18-5-2019-2021 90%2017 2019-2021 5%POS 1.2.3.4.-1.2022 6 30 2.3 2019-2021 2019-2021 202.4 17749%12%50%38%201910%52%38%202040%11%2021154161&2019-2021 89%20 1998 2019-2021 2023 2024 2025 2026 25 3030 30 12 11 14 5 14 8 33 9 43 2 2022 5 21 2.5+SKU(2019-2021)SKU 190760 2401900 140390 190840 190840 490990 4901990 170950 2022 2019 2020 2021771,07869,895790,37667,178993,23575,548 2019-2021.1 2,51,0 61 0,820191 1,31,1 81,0 92020 2021 12 2019-2021 2021 99.3 7.6 1.18 12.5 222.6 2020-2021 49%39%32%22%9%4%6%1%()()()(020)()()()2020 2020 O2O 20-30%2023 2 3000 2020 23 200 1v1 500+$2.7+15 200 9 10w+10w+GMV 1000w+GMV 100w 3w+23/+11 1:1+24 25 56%58%61%1 1.8 3.2 64%59%57%2019-2021 CAGR 35%3.1+4957665250533433352019 2020 20216670659271048144789781241146111851128082019 2020 2021 2019-2021 2019-2021 5 6.0%5 8.2%6 1.0%3 3.9%2 9.7%2 8.0%1 0.2%1 2.1%1 1.0%2019 2020 2021 2019-2021 1 26 2019-2021CAGR2019-2020 CAGR2020-2021 CAGR 17.87%-5.52%15.83%18.55%1.46%12.34%18.54%4.49%23.36%5.02%-39.25%46.48%28.21%2.07%12.91%-0.15%-12.22%11.85%-3.66%-15.55%11.50%4.61%-1.84%15.55%3.94%-9.49%18.42%1.47%42.62%4.58%27932638728833640513116518415712317453728812511012581 8075 72 707960546453 54 552019 2020 2021 2019-2021/2020 2021 3.2 273.3+1 1200+N.A.1000012000+69590/700800 2320/20+28/40 82/0.03 N.A./0.63 N.A.%N.A.N.A.%10%-15%N.A.=/=/=/=/=/=/=/2021 250350 14 30 1200+20 50%(10)10%2 1.283.4+14012014496180+6+87120+220 330 3500/45 3 5 810 11 100 8 20 35 29+-10 2018 1-5 529 8-+2017+3.5 303.6+1.8 2 2021 1.2.+10%15%+5%10%3.20%30%+8%12%4.+1 1500 1 2000 2 3000/1415 12 34 8 1 1012 1.31.5 11.2 0.71 0.3-0.5 IGHL Crest Sail Limited 2021 12 31 IGHL 1.57%CrestSail Limited 3.54%Thriving Team Limited 3%10 2 35 313.7 100-300 BeautyFarm PK NEW STAR&22 7 32 33&4.1+2022 123+4 SKU 344.2 2020-2021 2020 12%11%11%10%9%9%8%7%5%5%4%2%()11%12%10%10%11%11%11%9%9%9%SPA SPA 2020+90 00/TOP5 354.3 2020 Z CBNData Shanghai WOW!Timeout Z 1995-2009 2020 Z 2020 21%Z SPA 6 Z 200-500 Z 2020/SPA Rubis SPA Z HD HD Z 7 45 80 80 85 90 Z 36 4.4 2020-2021 29%41%30%2020+2016 374.5+2518354560 31 130 SKU 75,548 5 10 300 SKU 16,896 2017 2022 11 5 38 2020-2021 1 24.6 34%34%34%35%36%39%14%17%12%13%16%12%52%50%54%52%49%49%202 1 1.N=165 2021 SPA(i)(ii)(iii)39 40(2373.HK)-KY(4137.TW)(2279.HK)EPS PE 3 17 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E2279.HK 8.30.29-0.16 0.19 25.22/38.49 未评级4137.TW-KY 20717.5 9.93 15.39 11.83 20.85 13.45 未评级2373.HK 27.21.94 0.42 1.05 12.35 57.06 22.82 未评级 EPS EPS 1=0.88107-KY Wind Wind=0.88107 41 42 43,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%&WIND 44 R3/28F 518041 0755-83706353 8 7F 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597&前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
