20230316_东方证券_镍行业证券研究报告：电积镍破局23H2镍或迎来全面宽松_17页.pdf
|22 11 47%INSG 22 11 22 47%3/22 10 22 75%65%25%115 156 22 3%136 22 22-22 22 5 11 10 81%55%22Q4MHP/10PCT 2/23H2 3/22 32 6 23 22Q4 Q1 75%88%Q1 4 4.7 23-24 20-23H2 3/(600399)(688231)MLCC(605376)/2023 03 16 021-63325888*6084 S0860520010002 BTB487 23H2 23H2 2 22 11 47%.4.6 2.1-22 10.6 2.2-.7 2.3.8 23H2.11.13.14 0YFUuNrMpMnMqOmPqNoRmNaQdNaQmOmMtRoNkPqQmPeRrQrO8OpPxPvPmQtNwMnOxP 23H2 3 1 22.4 2 2022.4 3.5 4.6 5 300.6 6 22.6 7.7 8.7 9 MHP/.7 10.7 11 22 11.8 12 22Q4%.8 13%.8 14.8 15 2022.9 16 22 H2 PMI 50.9 17 22.9 18.9 19.10 20.11 21.11 22 LME.12 23 23 2 20/.12 1.11 23H2 4 22 11 47%22 3.04/22 47%22 3 4-7 40 7 15 1.9/1.9-2.4/7000-8315/9660/2080-2495/2816/11 2.96/3.04/22 47%13%20%1 22 数据来源：俄镍、东方 证券研 究所 2 2022%Wind 60 80 100 120 140LME LME LME 23H2 5 INSG 22 302 291 22 11 3 INSG 050100150200250300350 23H2 6 4 2.1-22 10 22-10 SMM 2022 115+29%31+250%22 16%302 70%22 SMR 22 2%400 200 2%300 2022 3185 22 198 21 0.1%22 22 10 5 300 6 22 SMM ISSF 2018-2021 10 73 80 117/22 562/22Q4 696/-5%0%5%10%15%20%+300+-5%0%5%10%15%020,00040,00060,000()YOY 23H2 7 22 86%16PCT 5 3PCT 7 8%SMM 2.2-22 MHP/MSP 2022 9 MHP/10-SMM 22 11 MHP MHP 22 11-1,400-1,200-1,000-800-600-400-200-200 400/4060801002018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/01 SMM SMM-2 4 6 8-0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.02021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/12 MHP()()23H2 8 11 22 11 12 22Q4%SMM SMM 22 11 22Q4+MHP/+2018-2021 0.6-2/22Q4 2/13%14 Mysteel SMM 2.3 22 22Q4 22 16%22 47 yoy+3.5%22H2 PMI 50.2%49.5%22 6 23-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%2020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/10SMM yoy-40-2002040602021/1/4 2022/1/4 2023/1/4-MHP-60 65 70 75 80 85 90 NI40%MHP NI34%CO2%-80,000-60,000-40,000-20,000-20,000 40,000 60,000/23H2 9 15 2022 16 22 H2 PMI 50 INSG ISSF SMM 22 6000 LME 4.6 MHP MHP 17 22 18 SMM SMM 2022 17.5 5 5000 22Q4 Q1 75%88%Q1 4 4.7 68%15%8%3%4%1%1%40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0SMM&SMM 01000020000300004000050000 _()050000100000150000200000250000300000SMM+()LME()23H2 10 19 SMM 50658095 8,000 11,000 14,000 17,000 _()_%)23H2 11 23H2-MHP 20 21 20 23 Mysteel 23 1 1500/3700 Mysteel 23 24 22 37%1 项目 MHP 2 23Q2 MHP 3 23Q3 MHP 2 23Q4 1.25 23Q2 3 MHP 0.6 23Q2 MHP 1.4 24Q1 5 23-07 2 23-01 20.25 Mysteel 75%78%23H2 12 22%5000 LME 2 27 LME LME CEO LME 22 LME SMM-23 3/-SMM 2 20 1/21.8/4/23 2 20 8/0.7/2.5/3/23 23 2 20/SMM 23H2 13 22 11 47%INSG 22 11 47%3/22 10 22 75%65%25%115 156 22 3%136 22 22-22 22 5 11 10 81%55%22Q4MHP/10PCT 2/23H2 3/22 32 6 23 22Q4 Q1 75%88%Q1 4 4.7 23-24 20-23H2 3/(600399)(688231)MLCC(605376)23H2 14 1%23H2 15 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
