20230317_招商证券_交通运输行业专题报告：新一轮国企改革持续深化静待交运央企重新出发_33页.pdf
|2023 03 17/2023 2023 1 2016+2 3 B B 21EPS 22EPS 23EPS 22PE 23PE PB 14.01-1.04 0.31 1.13 45.6 12.4 2.2 7.78-0.67-1.68 0.19-4.6 40.6 2.7 7.09 0.14 0.38 0.80 18.5 8.9 1.4 10.60-1.03-2.44 0.18-4.3 60.6 4.9 7.33 0.44 0.66 0.81 11.2 9.0 1.9 11.09 5.55 7.38 4.22 1.5 2.6 0.8%126 2.6 29751 3.6 26762 3.8%1m 6m 12m 1.0 24.3 0.9 29.5 1 2023-03-14 2 2023-03-12 3 2023-02-26 S1090519010004 S1090522010001 S1090522010002-20-1001020Mar/22 Jul/22 Nov/22 Feb/23(%)交通运输 沪深300 2.6 1“”.6 2.7 3.7 4.7.9 1.9 1.9 2.11.11.12.12.13 2.14 1.14 2.15.17 1.17 2.18 3.21 4.21 5.24.25 1“”.25 2“”.27 1.28 2.29 3 B.29.30.31 WUFUuNtOmPpOqOpMmRsNmN8OaO9PoMmMoMnOeRoOoNfQnPmM6MpPyQwMqNoOuOpMuM 3 1“”“”.6 2.7 3.9 4.10 5“3+4”.11 6%.12 7%.12 8%.12 9%.12 10%.13 11%.13 12%.13 13%.13 14 22 6.14 15.14 16.14 17.14 18 2022 12.15 19 8 2022 12.15 20.16 21.16 22.16 23.16 24 Euronav.17 25 1987-1992.17 26 2002.18 27.18 28 2019.18 29.19 4 30.19 31.19 32.20 33.20 34.20 35 ASK RPK%.21 36 2017-2021.21 37 2017-2021.21 38.23 39.23 40.23 41%.23 42 ASK.23 43%.23 44/.23 45 2020 60%.24 46.25 47.27 48.27 49.28 50.28 51.28 52.28 53.29 54.29 55.30 56.30 57.30 1 2023“”“”.7 2.8 3.15 5 4.22 5.22 6 2021.24 7.24 8 2021.25 9 2020-2021.26 6 1 2023 2 23 3 3 1 7 2 2 3 2023 1 5 2023 1 2023 65%4 8 2 000089.SZ 000099.SZ 600004.SH 600009.SH 600029.SH 600115.SH 600897.SH 601111.SH 600026.SH 600428.SH 600798.SH 601022.SH 601866.SH 601872.SH 601919.SH 601975.SH 603167.SH 000906.SZ 002183.SZ 002682.SZ 600057.SH 600119.SH 600153.SH 600704.SH 600755.SH 600787.SH 600794.SH 601156.SH 601598.SH 603066.SH 603128.SH 603648.SH Wind 9 1 1 2015 BDI 718 35%471 CCFI 872 1,086 19.7%2014 9 2015 9 13,2015 5300 2500 Alphaliner 11 30 7%3 2015 8 7 8 12 4 12 11 100%51.19%600428.SH 52.8%601919.SH 100%100%44.54%01199.HK 100%46.36%600026.SH LNG 47.48%601866.SH 600896.10 2016 1 4 2 18 4 1 44.54%2 3 4 LNG 4 3+4 11 5 3+4 2 2016 3 311 160 8%9.42%2022 3165.41 36.75%2016 2021 2021 892.96 8 12 6%7%2016 100%100%LNG 2022 6 30 161 2,365 14 83 2016 19.23 66.65%2021 3 2022 123.97 33.47%8%9%13 2022 6 30 37 367 220 1.22“”2022 10.54 22.54%2.63 0.34%10%11%2017 1 13 2015 29.49 2016 3.69 2021 83.82%184.49%12%13%10.54-20020406080051015 yoy(%)-29.493.69184.49-800-600-400-2000200400-40-20020406080 yoy(%)14 2 1 2016 2016 312 164.88 85.9%2018 2017 7 75%3 2018 477 276 14 22 6 15 WIND Alphaliner 2017 904.64 2021 3336.94 CAGR 38.59%2022 2071.76 98%2017 7%2022H1 47%16 17 WIND WIND 2015 2015-2018 ONE Alphaline 050010001500200025003000350040002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1()(%)(%)15 2022 12 CR5 CR10 64%84%3 时间 事件 2014 12 CSAV 2015 12 NOL 2016 2 2017 12 2018 3 ONE 2018 7 2025 2M OCEAN ONE HMM THE 9 3 8 2M TEU 34%OCEAN 30%THE 18%2023 1 25 2025 1 2M 2M 2025 OCEAN 18 2022 12 19 8 2022 12 Alphaliner Alphaliner 2 2017 LNG LNG 2017 100%100%100%100%2M34%OCEAN30%THE18%Others18%16 2020 LNG 65.71 2020 70%2021 100%2022 Q1-3 62%2017 78%2021 16%2017 20%2021 16%2017-2021 60.95 109.31 145.56 180.73 244.12 20 21 WIND WIND LNG LNG 2021-3.45 2021 BDI 5647 26.49 312.6%20%22 23 WIND WIND-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%010203040502014 2016 2018 2020 2022Q1-3 YOY 17 24 Euronav Wind 1 1987-1992 1986 CAAC 1985 1 7 6 25 1987-1992 18 2002 2002 2002-04 9 2002 2002 2013 26 2002 2 2021 65 39 26 2019 70%25.2%24.6%19.5%15.6%15.1%27 28 2019 19 1 23 5 4,29 30 31 20 32 2 3 10.4%13.1%10.7%8.1%2019 10%33 34 21 3 2020-2022 4000 2017-2019 2019 10624.9 500-600 2020 2020 2021 2022 974 842 2160 4000 35 ASK RPK%WIND 36 2017-2021 37 2017-2021 4 1938 40 1978 2008 2005 2008 2010 2012 2013 AMR 2016 66%22 4 2008 DAL 2010 UAL 2011 AirTran LUV 2013 AMR AAL 2017 754 1316 856 2021 878 1165 898 2017 ASK 69%2019 78%2021 68%82%-83%86%2020-2021 2021+70%70%10%40%2019 5 2018 2%2500/500 5 2019 1340 898 862 ASK 443159 344062%86%83%0.71 0.49 3279 1543 328 31 2449 359 10.0%2.0%ROE 31.0%4.2%*23 38 39 WIND 40 41%WIND WIND 42 ASK 43%s 44/24 5 23 2019 263.2 1996 10.6 11%2020 13%23%2020 59%45 2020 60%IATA World Bank 67%33%82%49%3856 198 43 9 17%FedEX UPS 1/10 6 2021 4054 151 100%3856 139 95.1%198 12 4.9%2021 7 2018 2019 2020 2021 51 53 53 53 9 9 11 12 60 62 64 65 25 46 8 2021 FedEx UPS 68 18 10 697 291 295 1 2 1 1 2 3 4 26 9 2020-2021 2020 4 2020 6 2021-2025 2020 9 14 2021 3 2021 3 2020 2021 2021 9 2021 11 30 2021 12 3 2021 12 6 38.9067%38.9067%10%7.2867%4.9%300 15 4 40%2022 7 27 400000 47 48 2 28 1 2012 2021 246.7 75%2017-2021 4 40%2022 179.34 8.02%2015-2016 2021 24.7 50%2022 16.79 9.4%2013-2018 5 31.8%2021 8.4 57.7%2022 7.35 9.67%10%-13%4%-8%2021 12.8%6.3%2021 22.3%17.6%49 50 51 52 29 1 2 2022 2+20 10 2022 600 6000 2020 50 5 2016-2022Q3 2021 54.08%2022 585.11 9.51%2013-2017 2017 13.47 2018 2019 2.8 HB 2020 2020 2021 5.7 8.8 102.8%52.3%2022 29.8%4.63 53 54 3 B 30 55 56 57 B 1 2016+2 31 3 B B 32 10 2018 ACCA 2019 2015 2022 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
