20240122_弘则研究_存储行业观察：复苏拐点明确开启涨价行情_24页.pdf
2024 01 021-6194-6708 Q4 PC Q4 24 DRAM NAND 30%AI DDR5 Q4 Q3 DRAM NAND 24Q1 Q2 67 Q3 Q4 24Q1 Q2 NAND Q3 Q4 Q1 40%Q4 DRAM NAND Q3 DRAM NOR Flash A A Q4 11 1YWAZuNqNmPmNrPsRsPrOrQ8OaO9PmOmMmOtPkPnNqRfQnPtQaQqQyQMYmPpQuOnQzQA Q42A Q4 11 A Q4 A A Wind 05010015020025024-01 23-08 23-03 22-10 22-06 21-12 21-08 21-03 20-10 20-05A3 Q4 Wind Bloomberg 05010015020025030035024-01 23-08 23-04 22-11 22-06 22-01 21-08 21-04 20-11 20-06 20-01 19-09 19-04 05010015020025030035040024-01 23-08 23-03 22-10 22-06 21-12 21-08 21-03 20-10 20-05 19-12 19-07 19-02 40.00.51.01.52.02.53.024-01 23-08 23-03 22-10 22-06 22-01 21-08 21-03 20-11 20-06 20-01 19-08 19-04 PB SK 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.024-01 23-08 23-03 22-10 22-06 22-01 21-08 21-03 20-11 20-06 20-01 19-08 19-04 PB Wind Bloomberg 23Q4 24DRAM NAND 22Q2 23 23 24 Q1 DDR5 Q2 50.40.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.424Q1e 23Q4 23Q3 23Q2 23Q1 22Q4 22Q3 22Q2 22Q1 21Q4 DRAM0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.424Q1e 23Q4 23Q3 23Q2 23Q1 22Q4 22Q3 22Q2 22Q1 21Q4 NAND 21Q4 1.0 DRAM DDR5 DDR4DRAM 23Q3 Q4 DRAM DDR4 PC/DDR5 DDR4 DDR5 DDR4 1.3 24 PC/6 CFM 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02024/1/16 2023/11/14 2023/9/5 2023/7/4 2023/5/2 2023/2/28DDR4 8Gb 3200 16Gb 320002040608010012001020304050602024/1/16 2023/11/14 2023/9/5 2023/7/4 2023/5/2 2023/2/28DDR4 UDIMM 16GB 3200 UDIMM 32GB 3200SODIMM 8GB 3200 SODIMM 16GB 3200RDIMM 32GB 3200 RDIMM 64GB 3200 23Q4 NAND DRAM NAND 50%NAND 23Q4 50%SSD DRAM NAND DRAM NAND 24 Q2 7 CFM 012345672024/1/16 2023/11/14 2023/9/5 2023/7/4 2023/5/2 2023/2/28NAND 256Gb TLC 512Gb TLC 1Tb TLC 1Tb QLC0204060801002024/1/16 2023/11/14 2023/9/5 2023/7/4 2023/5/2 2023/2/28NAND PCIe 3.0 512GB PCIe 3.0 1TBPCIe 4.0 1TB PCIe 4.0 2TB0204060801001202024/1/16 2023/11/14 2023/9/5 2023/7/4 2023/5/2 2023/2/28NAND OEM PCIe 3.0 512GB PCIe 3.0 1TBPCIe 4.0 1TB PCIe 4.0 2TB 23Q3 Q4 24Q1 23Q4 NAND DRAM Q3 NAND 24Q1 24Q1 DDR4 2 23Q3Q4 4.5 24Q1 2 DDR5 11.5 801234524Q1e 23Q4 23Q3 23Q2 23Q1 22Q4 22Q3 22Q2 01234524Q1e 23Q4 23Q3 DDR4 DDR5 DRAM NAND 23Q3 Q4 9 21 50100 21 22 23Q3 Q4 24 0501001502002503003504002023-09-30 2021-12-31 2020-03-31 2018-06-30 2016-09-30 Rambus 01002003004000501001502002502023-09-30 2021-12-31 2020-03-31 2018-06-30 2016-09-30 Samsung Elec Sk Hynix 01002003004005006000501001502002502023-09-30 2021-12-31 2020-03-31 2018-06-30 2016-09-30 Wind Bloomberg 24Q2 1022Q3 CAPEX 23Q2 Q4 7 PC DRAM NAND Q2 NAND 24Q1 Q2 50%60%70%80%90%100%110%24Q2e 24Q1e 23Q4 23Q3 23Q2 23Q1 22Q4 22Q3 012345623Q3 22Q4 22Q1 21Q2 20Q3 19Q4 19Q1 18Q2 17Q3 16Q4 16Q1 CAPEX 051015202530354023Q4 23Q1 22Q2 21Q3 20Q4 20Q1 19Q2 18Q3 17Q4 17Q1 16Q2 CAPEX 22Q3 100%Bloomberg DRAM NAND 11-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%23Q4 23Q1 22Q2 21Q3 20Q4 20Q1 19Q2 18Q3 17Q4 17Q1 16Q2 NAND-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%23Q3 22Q4 22Q1 21Q2 20Q3 19Q4 19Q1 18Q2 17Q3 16Q4 16Q1 NAND-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%23Q4 23Q1 22Q2 21Q3 20Q4 20Q1 19Q2 18Q3 17Q4 17Q1 16Q2 DRAM-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%23Q3 22Q4 22Q1 21Q2 20Q3 19Q4 19Q1 18Q2 17Q3 16Q4 16Q1 DRAM Bloomberg DRAM NOR Flash 12 Nor 32%DRAM 23%DRAM DDR2 DDR3 DDR4 LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4/4X NOR Flash NAND Flash 67%NAND-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%010203040506070231223082304221222082204211221082104201220082004191219081904181218081804171217081704-100%-50%0%50%100%150%020406080100231223082304221222082204211221082104201220082004191219081904181218081804171217081704-100%-50%0%50%100%150%020406080100231223082304221222082204211221082104201220082004191219081904181218081804171217081704 DRAM NORFlash 23 DRAM NOR DRAM 24 NOR Flash 23 24 Bloomberg PC 24 DRAM NAND PC 24 Q1Q4 DRAM NAND 15%20%DRAM NAND 30%40%13-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%012345-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0200040006000800010000 PC/Notebook-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%050100150200250300350400450 IDC Garter 23Q4 AI 14 23Q4 47.26 15.7%/-0.74%/-26.11%DRAM 34.27 21.1%NAND 12.3 11.5%24Q1 53 43.5%13%13.7 DRAM 24 bit NAND bit 20%DRAM NAND 24 24 AI AI PC NAND-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%23Q4 23Q1 22Q2 21Q3 20Q4 20Q1 19Q2 18Q3 17Q4 17Q1 16Q2 Bloomberg Seeking 23Q3 AI DDR5 HBM15-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%23Q3 22Q4 22Q1 21Q2 20Q3 19Q4 19Q1 18Q2 17Q3 16Q4 16Q1 23Q3 9.07 17.5%/0.71%/-24.09%DRAM 6.09 12.5%NAND 2.43 28.4%23 23 23Q3 PC 23 24:AI 40%AI AI AI DDR5:DRAM 24 DDR5 PC/23Q3 DDR5 DDR5 4800 5600 DDR5 HBM:HBM 60%80%CAGR HBM Bloomberg Seeking AI DDR51660%65%70%75%80%85%90%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%23Q3 22Q4 22Q1 21Q2 20Q3 19Q4 19Q1 18Q2 17Q3 16Q4 16Q1Rambus Rambus 23Q3 1.05 6.2%5200 11%/77.2%/98%23Q4 1.171.23-4.4%0.5%10%DDR5 24Q1 DDR5 DDR5 DDR4 DDR5 Q3 DDR5 DDR4 DDR5 Q4DDR5 AI DDR5 AI CPU HBM GPU DDR5 AI Bloomberg Seeking DDR5 23Q3 5.98 17.7%1.52 145%64.8%25.4%6.0/13.2 pct DDR5 ddr5,Q3 DDR5 30%50-60%ddr5 PCIe Retimer MXC CKD PCIe 5.0/CXL 2.0 Retimer 1 CXL MXC DDR5 CKD AI,ddr5 170%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%23Q3 23Q1 22Q3 22Q1 21Q3 21Q1 20Q3 20Q1 19Q3 19Q1 18Q3 DDR5 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%24Q4e 24Q3e 24Q2e 24Q1e 23Q4 23Q3 DDR5 PC/Notebook Wind 24 DRAM NAND 120018 YoleDRAM NAND 95%NOR 1%22 1440 DRAM 800 NAND 590 23 41%23 DRAM NAND 24 23 55%NAND DRAM DRAM NAND 19 YoleDRAM 95%DRAM SK 95%3%DRAM DDR4 PC 60%ICT 30%23 DDR5 DDR4 24 DRAM DRAM 20 Yole41.9%28%25%2.0%0.9%0.7%0.6%1.1%DRAM 2022 31.5%10.5%PC18.5%ICT 31.5%6.2%1.8%DRAM 2022HBM AIHBM RAM HBM DRAM TSV HBM HBM3 AI 21 TrendForce Mordor Intelligence HBM HBM NANDNAND Flash DRAM 30%18%12%13%NAND DRAM NAND SSD NAND PC 60%AI AI PC AI SSD NAND PC ICT 22 Yole28%23%PC10%ICT 23%9%7%NAND 2022 34%18%13%12%13%Solidigm6%3.5%1%NAND 2022 210 21 1206 THANKS/Wind,Global Insight,CEIC,Bloomberg,Haver,BEA,NBER,HZI
