20230326_国盛证券_风电设备行业证券研究报告：风电迈向深远海漂浮式技术可期_23页.pdf
|2023 03 26 60%600GW 50-80 370GW 80 230GW 60 60 2009 15 MW 199.4MW 2021 5.5MW 5 234.05MW 2022 200MW 2025 1000MW 2027 LOCE MW 4000 LOCE 900/MWh Aegirinsights LCOE 50-65/MWh 2023 1 MySE16.X-260 16.6MW/1 2 3 4 S0680520030005-32%-16%0%16%32%48%2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 300 2023 03 26 P.2 EPS P E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 601615.SH 1.36 1.76 2.01 2.35 16.57 12.80 11.21 9.59 600072.SH 0.11 0.12 0.21 134.75 124.67 73.34 53.18 688660.SH 0.38-31.16-23.80-601890.SH 0.13-73.55-002342.SZ 0.03-189.12-002531.SZ 0.73 0.36 1.14 1.41 18.89 38.31 12.10 9.78 300129.SZ 0.36 0.29 0.50 0.71 25.70 29.79 17.02 11.95 603606.SH 1.73 1.22 2.49 3.27 29.60 55.38 19.32 14.71 Wind WIND 0YCXuNtOsRqRtNsRtOtMpO8ObP6MoMqQpNnOiNrRoNiNoMtM7NnNxPvPsRxOMYsQtP 2023 03 26 P.3.5 1.1.5 1.2.7.8 2.1 4.8 2.2.11.12 3.1.12 3.1.1.12 3.1.2.14 3.2.15 3.2.1 LCOE.15 3.2.1.15 3.3.17 3.3.1.17 3.3.2.19 3.3.3.19 3.3.4.19.20.21 1 MW.5 2 2022 MW.5 3 2010-2021 MW.5 4 2022.5 5 MW.6 6.6 7 km.7 8(m).7 9.7 10.8 11.9 12.9 13.10 14.10 15.11 16.11 17.12 18 MW.12 19/.13 2023 03 26 P.4 20 1MW.13 21 MW.14 22.14 23 2021.14 24 MW$.15 25 LCOE(/MWh).15 26 LCOE(/MWh).15 27.16 28 SeaTwirl.17 29 T-Omega.17 30.18 31.18 32/.19 33.19 34.20 35.21 2023 03 26 P.5 1.1 2022 9.4GW 6.8GW WFO 2022 57.6GW 2022 9.4GW 6.8GW 72.3%2022 26.6GW 44%1 MW 2 2022 MW WFO WFO 3 2010-2021 MW 4 2022 GWEC WFO GWEC 2022-2030 260.17GW 86GW 111.41GW 76%GWEC 2022-2030 24%15%30%11561128151703122110273043251048176576090100002000030000400005000060000700002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222656313601804330102343 2263482050001000015000200002500030000 05000100001500020000250002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 72%14%5%4%5%2023 03 26 P.6 5 MW GWEC GWEC 6 2025 4050 2025 200 90 2025 2500 2030 4500 2025 1500 180 2025 2030 262 500 455 500 15 1030 480 2000 1700 2030 7400 750 300 1230 2025 200 01000020000300004000050000600002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2023 03 26 P.7 1.2 7 km 8(m)CarbonTrust 60 80%60%80%4000GW 2450GW 500GW 150km 600GW 50-80 370GW 80 230GW 9 2023 03 26 P.8 500/KW 50 50 500 5000 2.1 4 10 RWE-(Spar)100m(Semi)40m(TLP)60m(Barge)30m 2023 03 26 P.9 11 TheEconomist 12 100m 40m 60m 30m 2500-5000 2500-5000-2000-4000 IRENA Crowle Thies Floatingoffshorewindturbinesportrequirementsforconstruction 2023 03 26 P.10 13 Vryhof 14 Vryhof 2023 03 26 P.11 S 15 NREL 2.2 60 40 60 40-60 Iberdrola 0-30 0-15 30 50 16 E&P 5-9 7 2023 03 26 P.12 17 4 5 1.5m 2 5 1.5m 2 4 1.5m 5 1.5m 1000m 3.1 3.1.1 HywindDemo 2009 siemens2.3MW 220 1MW 15 199.4MW 80MW 65.9MW 27MW 19MW 2MW 5.5MW 18 MW principlepower SHELL evwind equinor,TODA IDEOL OffshoreWind BOEM 2018 5 234.05MW 8065.9271925.50102030405060708090 2023 03 26 P.13 19/MW MW m km 5.5 5.5 30 28 6.2 6.2 65 15 7.25 7.25 120 136 4 4 35-16.6 16.6 41-46 55 100 200 16-18-100 22 offshorewind GWEC 2009-2020 2021-2025 2026 2022 1000MW 200MW 2025 20 1MW MW MW m 2009 HywindDemo 2.3 2.3 220 2011 WindFloat1 2 2 45 2013 FukushimaForward1 2 2 120 2015 FukushimaForward2 7 7 120 2016 FukushimaForward3 5 5 120 2016 Sakiyama 2 2 100 2017 HywindScotland 30 6 120 2018 Floatgen 2 2 33 2018 Kitakyushudemo 3 3 55 2018 KindcardinePhase1 2 2 60-80 2019 WindFloatAtlantic 25 8.3 100 2021 TetrasparDemo 3.6 3.6 200 2021 Kincardine 48 9.5 60-80 2021 5.5 5.5 30 2022 HywindTampen 60 8.6 260-300 principlepower SHELL evwind equinor,TODA IDEOL OffshoreWind BOEM 185GW 2035 15GW 2030 5GW 4.5GW 2GW 1-3GW 3.5GW 2GW 750MW 2023 03 26 P.14 2030 6GW renewableUK 185GW 107GW 58%GWEC 2020-2025 105%2020-2031 59.6%21 MW renewableUK 3.1.2 2%OffshoreWindMarketReport:2022Edition 2021 14183.3MW 80%25.2MW 50-100m 22 23 2021 principlepower SHELL evwind equinor,TODA IDEOL OffshoreWind BOEM OffshoreWindMarketReport:2022Edition 332592106019050172441594413800133191082040296050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000 半潜式48%立柱式50%驳船式2%半潜式80%立柱式9%驳船式11%2023 03 26 P.15 3.2 3.2.1 LCOE LCOE power events HywindDemo 7100 2.3MW MW 3090 HywindScotland Kincardine HywindTampen MW 840 1480 630 550 MW NREL MW 387 LOCE Equinor Hywind HywindDemo 300/MWh HywindTampen 150/WMh LCOE 72/WMh LOCE 24 MW$25 LCOE(/MWh)NREL businessinsider NS Energy equinor power equinor 3.2.1 Aegirinsights LCOE 100-120/MWh 2040 50-65/MWh 26 LCOE(/MWh)Aegirinsights 30.98.414.86.45.30.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.0HywinddemoHywindScotlandKincardine三峡引领号HywindTampen 2023 03 26 P.16 1.5 10MW 1000 MW LCOE Vestas 2021 15MW V236-15.0MW 1.3GWMunmuBaram 2023 1 MySE16.X-260 16.6MW 27 OffshoreWindMarketReport:2022Edition SeaTwirl T-OmegaWind 20%30%2023 03 26 P.17 28 SeaTwirl 29 T-Omega SeaTwirl T-OmegaWind+/60%+Floatgendemonstrator LCOE 3.3 3.3.1 2023 03 26 P.18 30 HywindDemo-Nexans WindFloat1-FukushimaForward1 MitsuiEngineering&Shipbuilding-FurukawaElectricCo FukushimaForward2 MitsubishiHeavyindustries-FurukawaElectric FukushimaForward3 JapanMarineUnitedCorporation-FurukawaElectric HywindScotland Navantia VicinayMarine Nexans Floatgen BouyguesTravauxPublics LeB onManufacturing HydroGroup Kitakyushudemo Aerodyn Nippensteel-FurukawaElectric WindFloatAtlantic Navantia Lankhorst JDRCables TetrasparDemo Welcon Lankhorst UNITECH Kincardine Navantia Lankhorst Prysmian HywindTampen Kvrner Bridon-Bekaert JDRCable-offshorewind 31 2021 5.0MW MySE5.5-11MW 18MW MySE18.X-28X OceanX 16.6MW MySE16.X-260 2016 Hexicon Atkins 2 5MW 2019 2022 2022 H260-18.0MW 18MW,TLP 2022 EW11.0-208 11 2016 863 2022 CWEA 2023 03 26 P.19 3.3.2 32/2023 3 EmpireEngineering 3.3.3 Lankhorst LeB onManufacturing VicinayMarine R3S R4 33 R3 R3s R4 R4s R5 R6 R5 Vicinay R6 R3 R3S R4 152mm 600mm 3.3.4 Furukawaelectricity JDRCables HydroGroup 2023 03 26 P.20 34 2000 500kV 525kV 500kV 35kV 66kV X1 Wind CorPower 160kV 200kV 320kV400kV 525kV Carbon Trust 1268GW 60%50-60KM 7-10m/s 2022 2023 03 26 P.21 35 EmpireEngineering 2023 1 10 MySE16.X-260 2000 35kV 66kV 2023 03 26 P.22,6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033 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