()()S0350521120001 S 2023 03 15 1()2 2023-01-13 0YDWwPsPnOoPtNoNrMrOnMaQaOaQtRpPoMmPfQqQmPeRnMoQaQoPmQNZpOnRwMnNuM3 2023/03/15 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E603129.SH 133.64 3.01 4.66 7.07 57.48 28.68 18.90 000913.SZ 23.05 0.52 0.80 1.15 27.29 28.95 20.07 603766.SH 5.04 0.19 0.45 0.54 29.40 11.14 9.37 001696.SZ 6.74 0.42-17.32-003033.SZ 39.10 0.96 1.99 2.78 28.60 19.66 14.06 wind wind 4 1 90-2007 1994-2007 CAGR 12%2 2008-2011 2642 50%3 2012-2015 204 4 2016-2020 1679 2016 2022 55.3 66.2%10/150 2021 CR10 50%2022 55%2022 CR3 41%2020 2%+4-7+5946 1,030 622 904 1,139 970 988 928 851 813 929 928 916 709 898 765 1,599 1,721 1,921 1,765 1,561 1,393 1,301 1,199 1,032 869 786 629 821 993 728 614 37%37%24%34%42%41%43%44%45%48%54%60%53%42%55%55%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2021 335/+18 62823743%12%15%70%0%20%40%60%80%0100200300400%Benelli QJiang 16.213.010.67.05.0 4.8 5.0745890 895799754 7546520.06.012.018.005001000 X-ADV MT-09 F900 R 700CL-X 750 752S 650DS()(cc)+wind 6 vs 63.9 305.7 62 3.4 35.8 1,000 5,000 17.6 200 273.8 2.8 2022 2 7+05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000-2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,0001998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GDP GDP+2019 7 150cc wind 8-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q22 20.133.355.365.8%66.2%65%66%67%01020304050602020 2021 2022 2021 2022%2020 2021 2022H1 16.5 19.6 12.0 2019 149185175227199 2011822533965554672012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022*/10-12 150-170 wind 2022 3 91.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 10-12/1.5 1.6 2021 CR10 50%1.7 1.8 10 2.1.1-2.1.2+2.1.3+2.2.1+2.2.2+2.2.3 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 112.4.1 4-7 2.4.2 20212.4.3+2.4.4 2.4.5 2.4.6 2.4.7 O 2 O 2.5.1 2021 94%2.5.2 2.6.1 2.6.2 123.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5.1 R O E 3.5.2 R O E3.6 3.7 4.1(4.2(4.3 4.4 1(2(13 141.1 151.2 1994-2007 2008-2011 2012-2015 2016-2020 2017 8 50%+523784928 1004879 1127 1154 1232 1298 1472 1664 1775 2193 2545 2750 2543 2669 2701 2363 2289 2127 1883 1682 1715 1558 1737 1702 01020304050607001000200030004000500060001994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020()()(%)1994-2007 CAGR 12%2008-2011 26422012-2015 204 2016-2020 1679 161.3 GDP 1994-2007 2018 2022 1-9 63.43%2005 worldbank wind 170.40.61.11.31.73.26.7 6.64.2 4.23.82.52.63.55.66.78.811.312.410.79.112.19.37.88.46.2 6.26.79.39.69.37.37.06.66.04.63.73.8 3.73.33.13.7 3.83.13.95.04.54.24.85.15.55.25.0 5.0 5.05.2 5.36.6(40)(20)02040608010012002468101214161960196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 250cc+/GDP%0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.71.02.75.97.39.58.4 8.37.1 7.09.611.0 11.1(10)(5)051015200.00.51.01.52.02.53.02004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1-11 250cc/GDP%1.4 10-12/wind 10-12 150-170 2004 2022 11 1960 2021 181.5 68.2198.3475.1304.6115.620.177.6210.7573.3364.7137.233.313.8%6.3%20.7%19.7%18.7%65.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%010020030040050060070050 110 125 150 250 250+cc 250+2020 2021 yoy%40.9 121.7 231.6 174.5 65.0 47.8 141.5 300.3 229.7 87.3 17%16%30%32%34%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%-50 100 150 200 250 300 35050 110 125 150 250 cc 2021 2020 2021 yoy%5,000 9,000 50,000 130,000 230,000 4,000 6,500 12,000 33,000 155,000 110 125 250-750 250-750 800+cc 78.9%82.2%5.8%16.8%40.2%25.8%9.8%1.7%5.6%15.1%41.0%26.1%9.8%2.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50 110 125 150 250 250+cc 2020%2021%2021 app 2022 2 1911%12%10%25%18%25%8%6%6%57%63%59%QJMOTOR 1.6 2021 CR10 50%2.2 4.1 5.74.9 5.9 14.01.6 2.1 3.211.4 21.1 32.501020304050605.8%16.8%40.2%2021 2022 QJMOTOR 234.4128.998.897.289.681.5 80.071.6188.7107.4114.388.270.786.281.172.711.6%6.4%4.9%4.8%4.4%4.0%4.0%3.5%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%050100150200250 2021 2020 2021%2021 CR3 23%CR10 50%wind 2021 2020 2021 2022 2020-2022 CR3 43%37%41%yoy 65.8%20.1 33.3 55.3 yoy 66.2%2020 2021 2022 201.7 23 14 46 85 416 38 32 56 107 170 374 45 86 63 95 199-50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2022 40 3 356 112 16 24 44 5 280 109 18 21 40 11 310 133 19 19-50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2017 2018 2019 2020 202130%40%27%40%74%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021%26%32%75%28%4%7%-16%6%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 12%44%16%5%5%-2%0%39%4%4%-5%-3%CAGR 2017-2021 CAGR 2016-2021 wind 211.8 2,669 2,701 2,363 2,289 2,127 1,883 1,682 1,715 1,558 1,737 1,702 2,019 1,913 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 66.3198.3475.1304.6115.620.177.6210.7573.3364.7137.233.346.7118.4380.4226.3102.045.7-29%-24%-10%-16%0%63%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%010020030040050060070050 110 125150 250 250+2022 250+2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 0.6 3.2 4.5 8.4 02468102018 2019 2020 2021()5.9 8.5 8.8 11.1 0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 wind 2019/2021 2021 2021 3.6%26.6%22 232.1.1-/()SKU()5-258(cc)313-1254()SKU()31-424(cc)1254-1649()SKU()15-348(cc)1170-1802()SKU()5-193(cc)313-1001()SKU()7-153(cc)350()SKU()261(cc)1001*2022 2 242.1.2+14.95%27.46%39.12%0%10%20%30%40%125-250 250-500 500+2016 cc 7 4 3 TOP5 2 5 app 2022 2 252.1.3 BMW CE04 Real 5T ERT3 LIVEWIRE ONE 15-18 2.6-3.2 4 1631 13.5 17 15.4130 240 220 235120 115 120-2.6 2.6 2.6 3.0()(kw)(km)(km/hr)(s)*22,799*50 3 S9 MAX7699 400w20025-26 2-3 250cc 800+2.2.1+33%21%21%38%29%19%12%32%23%19%33%26%18%11%24%28%18%35%23%13%11%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3(cc)()C400X 350 68,900 XMAX300 292 49,800 CRF250F 250 42,800 TNT25249 18,800 250SR 250 19,980 250 249 15,999 200AC 223 14,800 250cc(cc)()X-ADV 745 161,900 MT-09 890 129,800 F900 R 895 105,900 600 600 49,999 650DS 652 49,800 752S754 47,800 700CL-X 693 45,800 800cc wind 2022 2 272.2.2+ZEEHO KTMR2R CFMOTO QJIANG QJMOTOR aprilia VOGE 2021 2846.421.731.629.144.810.823.17.5 7.711.1397.3290.7214.489.195.298.787.616.9 16.4 17.3010020030040050001020304050CFMOTO KTMR2R QJMOTOR apriliaVOGE 2.2.3 app app 2022 2 292.3.1 A B C A B C B A B 0 24 107 302.3.2 2017 8 150 2017 9 32 2 2021 12 A 300 2018 12 2017 11 2009 91 312.3.3 2021 10 146257 2018 11 2021 10 2021 10 25 2021 1 200 3 2019 4 2021 7 100 3 322.4.1 4-7 59%55%64%63%56%61%41%45%36%37%44%39%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 50%43%37%38%32%30%50%57%63%62%68%70%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 68%50%55%47%47%45%32%50%45%53%53%55%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 32%37%44%30%28%25%25%30%12%9%8%12%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 wind 332.4.2 202121.7517.755.225.9111.8416.53 19.0644.2%24.0355.8%13.4737.3%22.6562.7%2021 2021 2020 2020 2021 0.583.164.478.3702468102018 2019 2020 2021()3.6643.7%4.7156.3%0.9521.2%3.5278.8%2020 2021 2020/2021 2019/2021 34 2.4.3+KTM+QJMOTOR QJMOTOR+2019 2021 2021 352.4.4 KV CFPto B/G 362.4.5 2021 77%6%1%2%14%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 19.7%81%4%0%2%13%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 21.89%-7.46%2021+8.21%+8.6%2021-6.32%*61.8%66.9%79.7%5%4%3%14%3%3%19.7%25.6%13.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 6-8 90.7%58.5%37.7%29.9%25.6%13.4%11.8%19.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021%372.4.6 ZEEHOKTMR2R CFMOTOR 120+40+-650+3900+CFP KTM 2022 382.4.7 O 2O 6.7%2020%QJMOTOR CFMOTOR 2020 6.7%O2O QJMOTOR Benelli LBS 2020 1.3 392.5.1 2021 94%82%82%83%87%91%94%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 4.98.210.810.12020 2021 2021 35,320 17,832 23,731 36,014 31,852 18,232 2021 2022 wind 59%55%64%63%56%61%41%45%36%37%44%39%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 402.5.2 14.7%9.7%5.9%5.3%5.0%4.9%4.3%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 2.9%1.2%4.5%5.4%5.4%8.7%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 20.9%21.3%23.0%28.1%26.2%27.7%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 4.4%4.5%4.3%3.2%3.7%3.1%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 wind 412.6.1 32%37%44%30%28%25%25%30%12%9%8%12%0%10%20%30%40%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 3-5 62%58%51%64%32%36%42%30%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 1.0%5.5%29.9%63.5%30.52%34.26%19.71%21.89%0%10%20%30%40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021 3 6%156,100 106,088 48,985 39,113 37,713 2,225-3 6,871 1,905 2022 wind 422.6.2 13.5%11.5%4.4%5.0%4.6%3.5%3.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 2018 318594925107828483616524413312382350-20020406080100 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3*=+-33.1%37.8%20.8%21.0%32.2%33.3%23.0%19.3%23.6%35.1%27.7%18.3%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q311.1%12.1%13.1%14.1%8.7%6.6%7.2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 2019 wind 43 443.1 62%58%51%64%32%36%42%30%0%20%40%60%80%2018 2019 2020 2021 82%82%83%87%91%94%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 60%44%46%38%37%33%23%46%44%54%57%61%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1+63.5%59.9%56.2%56.5%58.5%60.2%20.9%28.3%32.5%31.7%36.5%40.1%22.9%15.1%9.0%8.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 453.2 1.0%5.5%29.9%63.5%30.52%34.26%19.71%21.89%0%10%20%30%40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021 3 6%0.2%3.6%5.5%90.7%7.97%22.79%38.06%25.62%0%10%20%30%40%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 9%9.0%32.5%58.5%14.70%12.98%13.40%12%13%13%14%14%15%15%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021+6 9%4.1%37.7%58.2%17.43%11.80%10.03%0%5%10%15%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2021 6%90.7 25.6 29.9 19.7 58.5 13.4 37.7 11.8 2021 4633.1%37.8%20.8%21.0%18.9%32.2%33.3%23.0%19.3%18.1%23.6%35.1%27.7%18.3%12.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q33.3 6.3%11.5%13.6%11.2%7.8%5.4%7.9%4.5%5.7%8.3%6.9%14.8%8.7%8.4%6.5%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 wind 2016-2020 473.4 4%4%2%2%5%5%4%3%3%6%5%4%5%3%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11%4%8%3%5%14%4%6%3%5%7%3%2%1%2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 14%15%5%6%6%5%5%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1.13%-1.30%-0.37%0.98%0.54%1.44%1.15%1.04%2.32%0.77%2022 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 wind 483.5.1 ROE0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ROE%()%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021ROE%()%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0.00.51.01.52.02.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021ROE%()%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ROE%()%wind-ROE 493.5.2 ROE10.82%3.44%15.18%7.47%27.72%17.40%8.80%9.35%10.09%23.68%11.32%8.28%5.27%10.54%30.40%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%ROE 2017 2018 2019 2020 20215.36%2.89%10.03%6.70%9.24%5.37%4.54%5.66%8.29%7.90%5.23%5.38%2.82%5.67%12.18%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2017 2018 2019 2020 20211.350.720.990.790.571.400.830.850.700.511.290.890.990.960.4600.20.40.60.811.21.41.6()2017 2018 2019 2020 20211.501.651.531.415.262.31 2.341.941.745.881.68 1.73 1.89 1.94 5.43 01234567 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 wind 503.6 81%72%81%100%76%86%46%73%100%86%85%47%24%97%72%122%100%94%103%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3105%86%92%100%103%94%92%100%103%109%90%92%98%130%89%106%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 2022=/1 2022=/1 wind 513.7 318594925107828483616524413312382350-20020406080100 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q371120245234641263658437211638644069943744020406080100120140160()2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q32771492043286369196423425311592927516801020304050607080()2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3671066423528211177297194 9367356587836562020406080100120140()2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 wind*=+-52+534.1(wind 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 78.62 109.78 136.53 176.16 yoy 73.7%39.6%24.4%29.0%21.5%24.7%26.3%26.5%48.79 69.37 79.85 98.99 yoy 117.0%42.2%15.1%24.0%21.9%26.9%29.1%29.3%22.98 32.21 46.84 65.36 yoy 23.5%40.2%45.4%39.6%19.7%21.8%22.2%22.9%4.26 5.11 6.13 7.36 yoy 60.1%20.0%20.0%20.0%30.5%30.5%30.5%30.5%0.77 0.92 1.11 1.33 yoy 45.1%20.0%20.0%20.0%34.3%32.0%32.0%32.0%1.81 2.17 2.60 3.12 yoy 86.4%20.0%20.0%20.0%49.6%30.0%30.0%30.0%544.1(2022 1.5 1250cc 2023 2 16 2023 2 536 2022-2024 109.78/136.53/176.16 7.01/10.64/14.10 EPS 4.66/7.07/9.37 PE 28.68/18.90/14.26X wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 7,861.49 10,978.36 13,653.06 17,615.85(%)73.71 39.65 24.36 29.02 411.52 701.16 1,063.88 1,409.65(%)12.78 70.38 51.73 32.50 2.74 4.66 7.07 9.37 ROE(%)11.32 16.64 20.16 21.08 P/E 57.48 28.68 18.90 14.26 P/B 7.14 4.77 3.81 3.01 P/S 3.30 1.83 1.47 1.14 EV/EBITDA 44.31 20.38 12.48 8.33 554.2(wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E-41.45 53.35 81.10 105.21%23.7%28.7%52.0%29.7%26.3%27.3%28.0%28.0%1.55 1.09 0.81 0.57%-22.7%-30.0%-25.0%-30.0%22.8%20.0%20.0%20.0%564.2(2021 20 2022 2022 2021 2022 2022-2024 54.43/81.91/105.78 4.19/6.05/8.17 EPS 0.80/1.15/1.55 PE 28.95/20.07/14.86X wind 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 4,309.45 5,443.35 8,190.94 10,578.24(%)19.29 26.31 50.48 29.15 237.61 419.49 605.13 817.16(%)-0.80 76.55 44.26 35.04 0.45 0.80 1.15 1.55 ROE(%)7.94 12.29 13.42 15.35 P/E 27.29 28.95 20.07 14.86 P/B 2.15 3.56 2.69 2.28 P/S 1.49 2.23 1.48 1.15 EV/EBITDA 21.24 27.15 12.82 8.89 574.3 10 2021 2.4 150 10-12+ASP+58 4.4 59 1(wind 603129.SH 133.64 2023/03/15 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 3956.33 4507.21 5899.33 7615.40 648.67 734.27 985.60 1233.46 1558.36 1239.67 2164.88 2215.24 316.16 290.48 401.27 399.64 6479.52 6771.63 9451.08 11463.74 431.54 621.31 802.59 975.40 444.28 539.59 634.91 730.22 611.04 658.17 705.29 752.41 4.38 4.38 4.38 4.38 7970.76 8595.08 11598.25 13926.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3763.04 3525.56 5342.95 6066.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 408.68 563.26 685.17 879.54 4171.73 4088.82 6028.12 6946.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 119.41 119.41 119.41 119.41 119.41 119.41 119.41 119.41 4291.14 4208.23 6147.53 7065.77 150.08 150.08 150.45 150.45 3679.63 4386.84 5450.72 6860.37 7970.76 8595.08 11598.25 13926.15 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 7861.49 10978.36 13653.06 17615.85 6168.97 8269.76 10062.35 12945.70 97.29 153.70 191.14 246.62 519.09 757.51 942.06 1206.69 278.04 422.67 525.64 669.40 32.51-267.49-50.00-50.00/-379.00 680.66 860.14 1109.80 445.70 906.85 1160.17 1537.24 3.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 449.13 906.85 1160.17 1537.24 37.63 75.27 96.29 127.59 411.50 831.58 1063.88 1409.65-0.02 37.42 0.00 0.00 411.52 701.16 1063.88 1409.65 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 263.72 1162.77 1791.77 2115.66 411.52 701.16 1063.88 1409.65-0.02 37.42 0.00 0.00 66.97 67.67 76.15 84.63-8.74 0.00 0.00 0.00-178.43 175.87 651.97 621.65-386.74-487.52-399.65-399.59-385.52-399.69-399.65-399.59-20.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.82-87.83 0.00 0.00 1602.79-124.36 0.00 0.00-30.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 1709.05 0.00 0.00 0.00-76.23-124.36 0.00 0.00 1461.48 550.88 1392.12 1716.07 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E EPS 3.01 4.66 7.07 9.37 BVPS 24.23 28.00 35.07 44.44 P/E 57.48 28.68 18.90 14.26 P/B 7.14 4.77 3.81 3.01 P/S 3.30 1.83 1.47 1.14 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE 11.32%16.64%20.16%21.08%21.53%24.67%26.30%26.51%10.55%8.31%10.38%10.37%5.23%6.39%7.79%8.00%73.71%39.65%24.36%29.02%12.78%70.38%51.73%32.50%0.99 1.28 1.18 1.26 12.12 14.95 13.85 14.28 5.04 8.86 6.31 7.95 53.84%48.96%53.00%50.74%1.55