2009 1210 2023 03 14 2022 2022 CPI 6 9.1%75bp 10 CPI 2022 2022 1136 152%2022 Q3 445 37%2022 2024 2023 2 2022 127 11.7%11.5%2022 71.5 2020 1 2 3 S0360522120003 S0360522120002 S0360522120001%()124 0.02()27,367.32 2.95()23,164.10 3.28%1M 6M 12M-5.1%-8.2%-7.6%-1.7%-5.1%0.0%20230306-20230310 2023-03-11 20230227-20230303 2023-03-04 2023-02-28-20%-9%2%13%22/03 22/05 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/032022-03-142023-03-10 300 2009 1210 2-3 2022 127 11.7%11.5%2020 XVBYxOsPtQrQrPtQrMtMoP9P8QaQnPqQnPpMfQqQtQlOqRsPaQmNoPwMnPnQMYnRsR 2009 1210 3 2020.7.10.12.16.19.19.21.23.27.29.31.33 2009 1210 4 1 2020.7 2 CPI%.8 3%.8 4 2023 bp.9 5.10 6 2015 TIPS.10 7.10 8 2022.10 9.10 10 2022 TIPS.11 11.12 12.13 13.13 14 CPI.13 15.13 16 2023 3 10.14 17.14 18.14 19.15 20.16 21.17 22.17 23.17 24.17 25.17 26.19 27 76.67%.19 28.20 29.20 30.20 31.20 32.21 33.21 2009 1210 5 34.21 35.22 36.22 37.22 38 2022.23 39.23 40.23 41.23 42.24 43 2017-2021.24 44 2017-2021.24 45.25 46.25 47.25 48.25 49.26 50.26 51.26 52.26 53 2022H1.27 54 2022H1.27 55.27 56.27 57.28 58.28 59.28 60.29 61.29 62.30 63.30 64 2021.30 65 2018-2022Q1-Q3.31 66 2018-2022Q1-Q3.31 67.32 68.32 2009 1210 6 69 2021.32 70 2021.32 71 2020-2022Q1-Q3.33 72 2020-2022Q1-Q3.33 2009 1210 7 2020 2020 1 2020 2020 8 QE 0 QE QE 2 2020 8 2021 3 8 3 2021 3 2021 6 PMI 64.7 PMI 4 2021 6 2022 1 2020%/Wind 2022 1 21 12 CPI 7%40 2009 1210 8 2 10 4 5 6 CPI 6 9.1%11 12 10 CPI 10-11 1630/2022 11 1 75bp 2022 11 3 75bp PMI CPI 12 2022 11 4 2 2023 1 51.7 18.5 3 3 CME 2023 5.38%2 CPI%3%Wind Wind 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01:CPI:0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.502020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02:10 2009 1210 9 4 2023 bp CME 200250300350400450500550600 2023 2009 1210 10 2022 1136 152%2022 2022 1136 152%5 6 2015 TIPS Wind Wind 2022 Q3 37%2022 Q3 445 1205 37%7 8 2022 Wind Wind 9 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 4,441.27 4,779.33 4,660.02 4,775.33 4,726.37 4,682.44 4,754.51 3,361.31 3,509.57 3,573.14 3,655.28 3,472.39 3,568.92 3,611.89 12.88 37.64-25.53-11.64-39.07-22.66-1.51 1,067.07 1,232.14 1,112.40 1,131.70 1,293.05 1,136.16 1,144.12 1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,000-500.00-400.00-300.00-200.00-100.000.00100.002015-032015-082016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-09(+)/(-)()COMEX(/,)1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002015-032015-082016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-09 10(%)COMEX(/,)-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.002011-032011-112012-072013-032013-112014-072015-032015-112016-072017-032017-112018-072019-032019-112020-072021-032021-112022-07()()23%7%46%24%0%2009 1210 11 4,441.27 4,779.33 4,660.02 4,775.33 4,726.37 4,682.44 4,754.51 966.97 1,614.22 1,315.01 1,163.99 1,796.26 1,001.89 1,106.75 331.68 322.99 332.59 334.79 302.75 330.20 308.53 2,479.23 2,018.77 2,257.47 2,290.01 1,323.96 2,230.64 2,189.76 579.56 394.86 378.55 656.24 254.95 450.11 1,135.69 83.83 428.49 376.40 330.31 1,048.44 669.61 13.79 Wind 2022 TIPS TIPS 2022 3-1.19%11 1.74%2018 11 1.18%1700/2018 1200/2022 10 2022 1.5%10 4.3%10 2022 TIPS Wind 1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,000-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002015-032015-072015-112016-032016-072016-112017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11 10(%)COMEX(/,)2009 1210 12 11 CME 2023 5 3 FOMC 522bp 10 2 11 CME Wind CPI 9 9.1%10 CPI 7.7%CPI CPI CPI/2022 11 8.8%S&P/CS 4 21.3%9 10.4%CPI 1-1.5 1,6001,6501,7001,7501,8001,8501,9001,9502,0002,0502,1000100200300400500600 2023 5 3 FOMC(BP)COMEX(/,)2009 1210 13 12 13%Wind Wind 14 CPI 15 Wind Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Supply-and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation/CPI 1-1.5 2023 3 10 2024 Q1 2023 5.38%2023 Q4 2024 Q1 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%2627282930313233342020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01(0.001.002.003.004.005.006.000.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%2001-012002-032003-052004-072005-092006-112008-012009-032010-052011-072012-092013-112015-012016-032017-052018-072019-092020-112022-01/0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00-2-101234567892001-012002-022003-032004-042005-052006-062007-072008-082009-092010-102011-112012-122014-012015-022016-032017-042018-052019-062020-072021-082022-09:CPI:(%):CPI:(%):/CS:20 2009 1210 14 16 2023 3 10 CME 10 5 4 2 7 3 11 17 Wind 18 10-3 10-2 10-5%1990 7 1991 3 13 18 18 0.12 8.28 2001 3 2001 11 8 13 13 5.20 8.35 2007 12 2009 6 16 22 0 17.17 19.28-1.50%-0.50%0.50%1.50%2.50%3.50%4.50%10-5 10-2 10-3 2009 1210 15 2020 2 2020 4 1 0 0 6.86 6.86-4 8 9-Wind 2024-19 Wind 2023 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%2020 3-2022 12 2000 1-2020 3 2022 7-2022 12 2009 1210 16 2020 2021 2 12,440 8,900 20 Wind 2022 127 11.7%11.5%2022 71.5 2023 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000020406080100120140 Comex(,)2009 1210 17 21 2022 22 23 24 25 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E YoY 2021 2022E 795.7 845.3 882.1 896.9 900.0 863.7 850.2 835.9 781.1 822.6 843.2 5%2%208.7 180.3 161.3 147.3 145.9 147.2 148.6 147.7 162.2 173.0 180.5 7%4%10.7 2.2 15.2 8.5 5.0 na na 3.6 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.5 28%1%1008.0 1027.3 1055.3 1047.5 1047.0 1011.9 1000.0 999.8 953.0 997.1 1030.2 5%3%445.2 449.6 438.9 441.1 475.3 503.6 499.6 498.1 464.9 508.2 539.6 9%6%270.9 275.4 269.8 272.3 308.9 330.1 321.4 316.6 304.1 330.0 353.3 9%7%55.0 50.5 48.4 54.1 93.7 101.8 92.5 98.7 101.0 113.7 127.0 13%12%2009 1210 18 51.1 52.4 51.0 48.8 46.9 48.7 49.8 50.3 44.9 47.7 49.2 6%3%123.2 121.8 118.0 119.9 119.5 124.8 128.4 131.1 115.9 130.5 137.1 13%5%52.5 45.8 43.6 41.2 37.8 35.1 33.8 32.7 27.8 28.7 28.4 3%-1%159.2 186.9 192.9 201.7 188.4 195.2 201.9 200.3 149.8 181.4 201.8 21%11%40.7 46.5 53.6 57.9 53.9 59.6 67.6 62.1 32.4 42.7 52.7 32%23%240.7 300.6 283.1 310.4 212.0 155.7 165.2 186.8 205.0 278.7 279.2 36%0%40.4 29.3 12.0 2.1 7.7 9.4 na na 978.8 1058.7 1012.0 1052.3 979.4 951.3 975.7 980.0 880.0 1049.0 1101.8 19%5%29.2-31.4 43.2-5.0 67.5 60.6 24.3 19.8 73.0-51.8-71.5 na 38%ETP 53.6 4.7-0.3-17.1 53.9 7.2-21.4 83.3 331.1 64.9 25.0-80%-62%ETP-24.4-36.2 43.5 12.1 13.6 53.5 45.7-63.4-258.1-116.7-96.5-55%-17%(/)31.15 23.79 19.08 15.68 17.14 17.05 15.71 16.21 20.55 25.14 23.90 22%-5%2009 1210 19 1-3 2000 5 2021 7.59/3g/t 2022 10145.17 173.75 6921.2 166.71 6.35 1.82 2022 7.06 190.74 11786 17693-2.08%6.94%11.86%33.72%26(t)(t)(g/t)(t)(g/t)(t)(t)(t)(t)(t)(g/t)(t)(g/t)95%540.5 20.59 3.81 540.5 20.59 3.81 90%1743.64 65.95 3.78 131.4 6.85 1768.81 72.8 4.12 100%127.68 8.99 7.04 72.39 56.70 21.41 0.7 16.32 127.68 9.69 7.59 88.71 69.48 60%2322.5 70.67 3.04 2322.5 70.67 3.04 4734.32 166.2 3.51 72.39 1.53 152.9 4759.49 173.75 3.49 88.71 1.86 27 76.67%(t)(t)(g/t)(t)(%)(t)(%)(t)(%)(t)(%)kg)2493 4113.09 164.98 41.01 1.64 54.98 2.21%511.9 480.37 93.84 4.92 0.96 9.41 1.84%3004.9 4593.46 152.86 45.93 1.53 64.39 2.14%1118 2079 1697.45 81.65 12.61 0.61 39.62 1.91%6.35 0.31%1.82 0.09%2009 1210 20 180.7 356.56 197.32 0.24 0.13 0.24 0.13%152 60.68 106.88 176.14 1.38 2.27 1.61 2.65%1038 60.38 78.14 129.41 0.69 1.14 2380.76 2239.03 94.05 14.92 0.63 41.47 1.74%6.35 0.27%1.82 0.08%152 5385.66 6832.49 286.99 60.85 2.56 105.9 4.45%6.35 0.27%1.82 0.08%152 2022 83.82 11.24 7.28%11.7%6.35 3.78 2.35 3.70 7.08%-16.74%-29.85%5.11%12.58%2022 74.68%15.19%2022 4.01%2.08%3.23%9.82%6.4%28 29 30 2022 31 2022 21.57%2017 2022 21.57%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0501001502002019 2020 2021 2022-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%024682019 2020 2021 2022/,74.68%,15.19%,5.67%,3.46%,1.01%024681012141618202019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 21 2021 1400t/d 2022 12 2022 1966.43 2023 1 32 33 34 2000 1-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%024681012142017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01002003004005002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/)0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201401601802017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(2009 1210 22 2021 1479.26 592.41 13 2 817.18 208.65 2021 24.78 10.45 42.17%2022 21.15 114.42%128%61.14%35()(g/t)(,g/t)()(g/t)(,g/t)95.31%51.03 3.03 147.47 20.77 2.68 52.99 95.31%106.19 3.43 347.41 22.98 3.87 84.85 100%62.92 3.27 205.45 17.89 3.33 59.59 74.57%54.95 2.85 116.85 6.61 2.28 11.22 275.09 2.97 817.18 68.25 3.06 208.65 36 37 2022 10-13 2021 34.39%50.68%1.94 2021 2022 21.15 115.80%2022 10-13 11.94-14.94-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0510152025303540452018 2019 2020 2021-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.402018 2019 2020 2021/2009 1210 23 38 39 2022 2022 13.37%2017 Minera Andina Del Sol S.R.L.(MAS)50%MAS 2021 3.82 1.18 14.71%3.5%1854.37/185.08%2022 195 50%13.37%40 41 18.5km 13.75km 165/41.25/660/264/-505101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002503003504004502017 2018 2019 2020 2021/-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022(-50%0%50%100%150%200%05001,0001,5002,0002019 2020 2021(/(/2009 1210 24 42;,;,;,;(APT),2017-2021 3.7 5.3 3.0%2021 35,280 21,880 19,710 2017 126.7 144 23.5 29.3 10.5 10 43 2017-2021 44 2017-2021 2021 2 27 3.2/4/3/2.5/2020 100 50/80/0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 051015202530351251301351401451502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 25 45 46 2022 24.20 16.13%2.46 6.5%2017 5 1.8 4.57%1.76 12.60%20%30/5/1286 81.97%1043 16.53%47 48 2021 2022 198.46 210.40 32.19%6.02%3.63 4.28 61.28%17.78%3.51 4.13 64.22%17.71%2022 0.13 1.8 0.81 3.1 104.1 3.3 44.85%2017 100 0204060801002017 2018 2019 2020 2021/0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021/0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%010203040502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.01.02.03.04.05.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2009 1210 26 49 50 51 52 80%2022H1 93.2 20.06%84.58%14.5 95.45%1.8 111.42%2022H1 3.64 15.35%4.49 115%50%0.36 66.64%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002019 2020 2021 2022H1-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 27 53 2022H1 54 2022H1 2022 39 24 15 2.5/2021 5.2 3000/165/5.0+8 6 55 56 6 4,84.6%,6.0%,4.7%,2.0%,1.6%,0.5%,0.7%,41.8%,16.6%,20.6%,14.8%,4.1%,2.1%2009 1210 28 198 2 6 7608.26 209.61/3.5 90 25 57(g/t)(g/t)(%)(%)(%)(t)(t)(t)(t)(t)90 228.8 2.1 4.38 2079 19 40 48 206.4 0.61 2.33 3291 10 37 30 164 1.64 3.46 406 8 16 30 264.6 670 11 11 0 284.9 1.32 2.05 556 1 5 0 140.7 1.66 2.6 605 1 36 2020 58.12%20/20/17/2021 20 58 59 2022 2022 1-9 12.19 26.30%2.2 8.01%2022 2022 2021 4,807/4,419/8.07%2009 1210 29 60 61 Wind Wind 2022 11 14 Silvercorp Metals Inc.3 90 2021 2023 2025 198/20 400%2005 2012 30%-80%20%-70%80%2022 2022 6436 64.95%2022 25.22 82.84%78.56%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%051015202530352017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1-9 月)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.01.02.03.04.05.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1-9月 2009 1210 30 62 63 2021 8 14 52.57 64 2021()(g/t)()42.38 14.57 12 4 304.89 7.31 18.89 16 127.74 8 10 13 2018 Sepon 2020 2021 158 5910 300 2.7g/2022 2 2022 1 100%2020 12 31 364.8 3.53/110 2022 6 1.23 300 2022 11 DMH 2021 2022 2021 16.83%2022 44.76 67.74%2021 2022 01000200030004000500060007000800090002018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022H1 2009 1210 31 2022 65 2018-2022Q1-Q3 66 2018-2022Q1-Q3 2022 12 51%90%(+)1028.5 1.32g/t 13558kg 14 t/a 100/2000 32 27 14 2021 8%2021 19.23%2021-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3(-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3(2009 1210 32 67 68 2021 2021 349.78 7.29%52.16%280.19 41.78%2021 23.79 29.28 69 2021 70 2021 2021 2022 2020 3 30 90%2021 201.05 48.69 2475/2021 11.70 63.48%10.53 2021 62%2022 17.16 23.77%051015202530354045502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0510152025303540452017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1,52.16%,41.78%,6.05%,37.55%,46.22%,16.22%2009 1210 33 71 2020-2022Q1-Q3 72 2020-2022Q1-Q3 6 5 6 70 1 2 3 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%14.5015.0015.5016.0016.5017.0017.502020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.002020 2021 2022H1 2009 1210 34 6 2 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 7 Wind 2022 2 2022 2009 1210 35 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 36(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告