20230313_开源证券_电力设备行业证券研究报告：换电重卡需求才露冰山一角政策支撑叠加场景渗透共筑未来增速_28页.pdf
1/27 2023 03 13 HJT+HJT-2023.2.17 2023-2023.2.5-2023.2.4 S0790522080001+24 16%5.99/L 2022 3.77%A 2022-2025 CAGR 87%83%96%+2022 2020-2021 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 48.79%1-2 5 B 6-36%-24%-12%0%12%24%2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 300 2/27 1.4 1.1.4 1.1.1 16%.4 1.1.2.5 1.2 2022.7 1.3+.7 1.4+.8 1.5.9 1.6 2022-2025 CAGR 87%83%96%.10 2.13 2.1.13 2.2.13 2.3.13 2.4.14 3.15 3.1.15 3.2.15 3.3 6.16 3.4+.17 4.18 4.1.18 4.2.18 4.3.18 5.19 5.1.19 5.2.19 5.3.20 5.4.21 5.5.22 5.6.22 5.7.23 6.25 1 2021-2022.5 2 2022 67.7 3 2018-2022.7 4 2022.7 5 2022 12 6000.7 6 230.8 XVEVuNtOtQnMqOtQmRpQnM7N8Q9PtRmMnPtQiNqQpMlOnMtP9PpPxPvPrMrQuOqRrQ 3/27 7 2022.8 8 2022 2023.8 9 2022.9 10“”.10 11.10 12 2022.10 13 2022.10 14 48.79%2022.13 15 2022.13 16 56.1.14 17.14 18.15 19.16 20 2022.19 21 35.74%2022 Q1-Q3.19 22.20 23.20 24.20 25 2021 30%.20 26 2021 12.53%.21 27.21 28.22 29.23 30 2022.23 31.24 32.24 33.24 34.24 1 20%.4 2.5 3.6 4.9 5 41.4%34.2%24.3%.11 6 2022-2025 CAGR 87%83%96%.12 7.13 8 6.16 9 2021 2022.22 10.23 4/27 1 1.1 24 2022 3.77%A 1.1.1 16%16%7.61/L 2023 1 10 1-2 1.1/KWH 84%39%5 16%10%1.5pct 5.99/L 2021 3 1 20%40 45 80 3.54 43.54 45.00 80.00 3.35%83.74%L/KM KWH/KM 0.4 1.7 1.7/L/KWH 7.61 1.1 1.1 350.00 350.00 350.00 400.00 400.00 400.00 140000 140000 140000/42.62 26.18 26.18/8.3 42.62 34.48 26.18-19.09%-38.57%/4.6 3.6 3.6 47.22 38.08 29.78 5 5 5 4.88%248.64 210.41 209.36 40-15.37%-15.80%Wind 5/27 1 2021-2022 Wind 1.1.2 BCG 3%85%65%1 2025 12%2 3 70%80%A 2 2021/10/28 11 8 3 2022/1/21 80%2 2022/11/14 15 1 2025 90%12%40%2 0.02.04.06.08.010.0:(0#):VI/L 6/27 3 70%80%3 2022/4/20-2022/7/18 2022/6/1 A A B B-C D A 2022/12/18-2022-2025 24 7/27 1.2 2022 2022 2017-2021 110 2020-2021 2022 67 52%2021 2022 2022 141%3.77%2022 1 2022 2 2022 12 31 3 2022 2 2022 67 3 2018-2022 4 2022 5 2022 12 6000 1.3+2023 2022 1 2-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0501001502002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-0%1%2%3%4%0.001.002.003.002018 2019 2020 2021 2022-/-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0246810-0%2%4%6%8%10%12%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000-/8/27 6 230 7 2022 Wind Wind 8 2022 2023 Wind 1.4+200 24 A 2022 7000 1792 0102030405060708090100 200 100-200 100 020406080100120:0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.002018-01-02 2019-01-02 2020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02:HRB400 20mm:HRB400 20mm:Q235B:4.75mm:Q235B:4.75mm:2022.12 2022.11 2022.10 9/27 4 4-6 km 100 100-150 350 km 80 400-700 800 9 2022 1.5 010002000300040005000600070008000 10/27 10 11 12 2022 13 2022 1.6 2022-2025 CAGR 87%83%96%200 1000 41.4%34.2%24.3%020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000180000 050010001500200025003000350040004500 11/27 5 41.4%34.2%24.3%200-500 6.10%200-400 2.70%20-200 4.30%20-200 5.80%10-100 5.80%10-50 7.20%500 11.80%300-500 10.10%100-500 1.40%34.20%1000 7.70%1000 16.60%24.30%1 2023-2025 30%10%10%2 2023-2025 6%9%13%1%3%5%0.3%2%4%3 2023-2025 40 4 2023-2025 45 44 43 80 78 76 5 2024-2025 5%2023-2025 400 380 361 6 2023-2025 847 838 830 2023-2025 157 305 504 25 48 76 104 208 382 2022-2025 CAGR 87%83%96%12/27 6 2022-2025 CAGR 87%83%96%2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 161.9 139 67 87 95 105 100 YOY 30%10%10%500 24.30%24.30%24.30%24.30%24.30%24.30%0.00%0.00%0.30%2.00%4.00%1 0.0 0%0 0 633 4641 10210 24300 5039 3228 12431 25167 50020 84708 3 4 1 1 0 0 YOY 92%-36%285%102%99%69%2022-2025CAGR 45 45 45 44 43 80 80 80 78 76 62.5 62.5 62.5 61 59.5 20 78 157 305 504 87%YOY 285%102%94%65%2022-2025CAGR 40 40 40 40 40 40 126 81 311 629 1251 2118 400 400 380 361 YOY-5%-5%12 25 48 76 83%YOY 102%89%61%2022-2025CAGR 973 973 965 960 721 721 710 700 847 847 838 830 8121 10943 22827 46852 94530 174512 208 289 599 1229 2479 4597 51 104 208 382 96%YOY 165%110%82%13/27 2 2.1 2022 2021 30.7%48.79%40.88%7%10%2022 14 48.79%2022 15 2022 2.2 1-2 5 1-2 282KWH 240KW 10%100%1 350KWH 423KWH 1.5-2 24 7 282kWh 1h 6min 350kWh 1.5h 422kWh 2h EV550 282/350/423kWh 20%-90%1h 5min 2.3 50-150,48.79%,40.88%,0.12%,10.21%0%20%40%60%80%100%21/821/921/1021/1121/1222/122/222/322/422/522/622/722/822/922/1022/1122/1223/1 14/27 0.6-0.8 0.2-0.4 16 56.1 2.4 1 84%282KWH 800/KWH 22.6 BOM 37%17 车电分离 降低初始购置 成本 15/27 3 3.1 18 3.2 1 2 B B B 3 16/27 19 3.3 6 421 259 7-8 1400+1.07 721 40+1053 6 8 6 421 421 235 235 259 259 1400/2315 915 40 40 KWH 673.92 673.92 1.07 1.07 8.3 1053 721 5 5 8 8 17/27 331.8 51.8 82.0 82.0/KWH 0.62 0.62 417.8 417.8 20 20 10 10 862 582 191 139 18.2%19.3%10%10%5.0 3.0 81.2 64.4 25%25%60.9 48.3 5.8%6.7%475 182 WACC 4.88%4.88%5.7 5.9 10%6.2 6.0 3.4+1 2 3 4 7-8 18/27 4 4.1 4.2 2300 4.3 19/27 5 5.1 2021 2007 2019 2021 2021 Q4 840.97 2022 Q1-Q3 2.52 36%2022 1 2022 8.58 27.64 31.04%9.5 5.55 2024 1000/2023 1 20 2022 21 35.74%2022 Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 5.2 2006 2021 2018 2019-2021 80%PACK 2022 12 16 400 010000200003000040000500006000070000800002019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3,45.63%,14.52%,35.74%,4.11%20/27 22 23 Wind Wind 30%2022 35%2021 500/24 25 2021 30%Wind Wind 5.3 2002 2011 2021 3.62 12.53%2017 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002019A 2020A 2021A 2022H1 YOY0%20%40%60%80%100%2019A 2020A 2021A 2022H1 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%020004000600080001000012000140002019A 2020A 2021A 2022H1 YOY0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2019A 2020A 2021A 2022H1 21/27 26 2021 12.53%Wind 5.4 2019 B 2022 32 12 1 6 2023 18.5 88 52 27 13.5 2022 248 78 47 25 27,43.82%,42.51%,12.53%,1.14%22/27 5.5 2022 2786 2433 19.57%2020 9 2022 28.01%28 9 2021 2022 2022 2022 2021 2021 2433 19.57%808 25.03%2223 17.88%551 17.07%1656 13.32%788 24.41%1342 10.80%56 1.73%963 7.75%66 2.04%617 4.96%51 1.58%598 4.81%30 0.93%588 4.73%27 0.84%544 4.38%516 15.99%356 2.86%47 1.46%262 2.11%206 6.38%180 1.45%17 0.53%169 1.36%0 0.00%155 1.25%0 0.00%93 0.75%0 0.00%252 2.03%65 2.01%12431 100.00%3228 100.00%5.6 2006 2016 2021 9 2022 23/27 50-70%2022H1 39.69%29 30 2022 Wind Wind 200V 400V 690V 1140V 0.4kW 3000kW 10 1 2/3 4 5+6+7 5.7 2002 2017 50 2021 15.89 26%1.85 19%2022 2022 8 2023 1 0%10%20%30%40%50%01234562018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022H1-800%-600%-400%-200%0%200%-2-10123456 YOY YOY 24/27 31 32 Wind Wind 33 34 Wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%024681012141618 YOY-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%00.511.52 YOY05101520 25/27 6 26/27 2017 7 1 R3 C3 C4 C5 C3 C4 C5 Buy 20%outperform 5%20%Neutral 5%5%underperform 5%overweight Neutral underperform 612 A 300 500 27/27 1788 1 10 200120 2030 1 45 518000 18 C2 9 100044 1 B 5 710065 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
