20240123_国盛证券_环保行业2024年度策略：资源循环多点开花高股息板块价值望重塑_28页.pdf
|2024 01 23-2024 2024 1 12 SW-6.8%3.0%22.6%2023 12 PE-TTM 2024/1/12 20.3 15.3%2023 2533.3 7.2%222.3 3.0%2021 2025 5 2000 400 1150 290 60%3.2 1 2 3 4 1 2024 1 12 1/5/10 2.09%/2.42%/2.52%39.4%/9.1%/3.9%2&2023 2012-2022 35%3&2022 35%2023 1.43%1 2 1.2.3.4.S0680518020001 S0680122070016 1 2024-01-20 2 2024-01-14 3 EOD 2024-01-07 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 600461.SH 0.86 1.00 1.10 1.18 9.9 8.5 7.7 7.2 300779.SZ 0.02 1.47 2.42 3.73 2119.0 28.8 17.5 11.4 603588.SH 0.45 0.55 0.74 0.99 12.1 9.9 7.4 5.5 Wind-32%-16%0%16%2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 300 2024 01 23 P.2.4 1.1.4 1.2.5.8 2.1.8 2.1.1.8 2.1.2.9 2.2.10 2.2.1.10 2.2.2.11 2.2.3.12.14 3.1.14 3.2.14 3.2.1.14 3.2.2.21 3.3.21 3.3.1&.21 3.3.2.23.25.27 1%2024/1/12.4 2 2024/1/12.4 3%2024 1 12.4 4 2022.5 5 2023.5 6 2023%.6 7 2023%.6 8 2023%.6 9 2023%.7 10 1.8 11 2020 2025.8 12 2016-2022.9 13 2016-2022.9 14 2016-2021.9 15 2017-2023.10 16 2017-2023.10 17 2020-2025.10 18.11 19%.11 20.12 21.14 22.14 23.15 24%.15 25.15 26 2022%.16 27.18 28.19 ZXCXzQsPnOrQpRtQtOoRqR8OdNbRsQrRmOrNjMmMrQiNmOtP7NpPxPvPsPnMNZoMnR2024 01 23 P.3 29.21 30.21 31%.21 32%.21 33 2013-2022.22 34 2013-2022.22 35 2022%.23 36.23 37.23 38%.24 39%.24 2024 01 23 P.4 1.1 2024 1 12 SW-6.8%3.0%22.6%2023 12 PE-TTM 2024/1/12 20.3 15.3%1%2024/1/12 2 2024/1/12 Choice Choice 3%2024 1 12 Choice 2023Q3 0.66%2023 2023Q3 0.66%0.02pct-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2023/1/132023/3/42023/4/232023/6/122023/8/12023/9/202023/11/92023/12/29环保 工程 及服 务 创业板指 上证综指0501001502002503002021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1 2024/1/1水务 水处理 固废处置大气治理 环境监测 节能环保-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%采掘传媒电力公用事业水务 银行建筑材料家用电器燃气 通信交通运输汽车纺织服装国防军工钢铁环保工程及服务 有色金属商业贸易计算机应用非银金融化工轻工制造医药生物农林牧渔电子综合机械设备沪深 300电气设备建筑装饰食品饮料房地产创业板指休闲服务 2024 01 23 P.5 4 2022 Wind 1.2 2023 2533.3 7.2%222.3 3.0%5 2023 Choice 2023 2023+44.9%+5.2%+5.0%+3.7%-3.5%/-3.1%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%2022/3/31 2022/6/30 2022/9/30 2022/12/31 2023/3/31 2023/6/30 2023/9/30%2363.9 215.8 2533.3 222.3 050010001500200025003000 2022 2023 2024 01 23 P.6 6 2023%7 2023%Choice Choice 2023 2023+107.2%+117.3%+5.9%+3.0%-12.6%-66.2%8 2023%Choice-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020040060080010001200 2022 2023 yoy%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%020406080100120 2022 2023 yoy%-5-4-3-2-10123 2024 01 23 P.7 9 2023%Choice-4-20246810121416 2024 01 23 P.8 2.1 2.1.1 2030 2060 10 1/S02 CO2 1,444 390 1,054 397 2 395 380 0.137 3.5 3,916 150 3,766 22.7 0.5 22 20-1,223-78-52 0.062-844 185 659 235.5 0.5 235 128 0.03-2021 2025 2020 20%60%60%6000 3.20 2000 5 2022 2 2025 57%73%2,000 11 2020 2025 325400740115024029014516002004006008001000120014002020 2025E 2024 01 23 P.9 2023 2022 3.71 2.6%2022 1375 2.0%12 2016-2022 13 2016-2022 2018 2020 2022 2023 2018 2020 2022 2023 2.1.2 2021 8806 5271 2020 2019 3.1/14 2016-2021 2020 254122820632159354473718438064370683.5%11.0%14.0%10.2%4.9%2.4%-2.6%-4%0%4%8%12%16%0100002000030000400002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%9371065111011991230134813757.0%13.7%4.2%8.0%2.6%9.6%2.0%0%4%8%12%16%020040060080010001200140016002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%5347.36936.97470.08126.07281.88805.66471.0 8178.0 10212.0 12896.0 14503.0 17766.2 1629.02252.02697.03558.04160.05270.725.2%27.5%26.4%27.6%28.7%29.7%20%25%30%35%0400080001200016000200002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2024 01 23 P.10 2.2 2.2.1 2023 12 32%2020 20 2025 78 5 CAGR 31.3%15 2017-2023 16 2017-2023 Wind CBU 17 2020-2025 1 5%2 3 78126 1211373526899503%4%5%5%13%26%32%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%010020030040050060070080090010002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 36.256.962.21 63.64154.49294.6387.728.0%57.2%9.3%2.3%142.8%90.7%31.6%0%40%80%120%160%0501001502002503003504004502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GWh%207801020304050607080902020 2025E 2024 01 23 P.11 2.2.2 Plastis Europe 2022 4.0 2018-2022 CAGR 2.0%PET PS 6.2%5.2%PET PS 2482 2082 18 Plastis Europe Plastics Europe 2022 3560 8.9%2022 2030 50%60 20 50 100 10%19%Plastics Europe statista 2021 87%Plastics Europe 2022 19%eurostat 2021 40%2022 16%2021 5-6%2014 10%2018 2022 375 PET HDPE PET 20.9%HDPE 10.3%3.73.83.83.94.02.5%0.2%3.6%1.6%0%1%2%3%4%3.53.63.73.83.94.04.12018 2019 2020 2021 2022%3030.831.632.535.50.10.10.10.10.18.1%8.1%8.3%8.3%8.9%7.6%7.8%8.0%8.2%8.4%8.6%8.8%9.0%27282930313233343536372018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2024 01 23 P.12 2025 50%2030 55%2040 100%2030 25%2035 100%2030 50%2040 100%2025 20%54%70%2030 2022 4 30%2025 70%2.2.3 50%UNDA 98.5%CO2 50%10%95%30%70%20 IEA 2020-2030 CAGR 6.8%OECD 2021 4159.5 3.6%2021 7 II 2030 40%26.0%2018 14.0%2023 10 18 2030 32%42.5%2.5%45%Chemanalyst 2020 603 2030 1155.3 6.8%2024 01 23 P.13 2023 11 13 2024 01 23 P.14 3.1 2024 1 12 1 2.09%39.4%5 2.42%9.1%10 2.52%3.9%21 Choice 3.2 3.2.1 22 1.51.71.92.12.32.52.72.93.13.33.52021-01-04 2021-05-31 2021-10-25 2022-03-18 2022-08-10 2023-01-03 2023-05-30 2023-10-24:1%:5%:10%2024 01 23 P.15 2020 3.46%5812.9 2021 5920.2 2022 3.7 905.7 15.1%81.2 968.4 16.2%63.0%1.32%5998.2 2018-2022 6000/23 24%2012-2022 2012 417 2022 639 10 CAGR 4.4%2012 85 2022 115 10 CAGR 3.0%25 Wind 60166021581359205998570057505800585059005950600060502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 63.0%16.2%15.1%5.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 010000002000000300000040000005000000600000070000002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 01 23 P.16 2021 6 2025 70%95%2035 2022 64.9%28.3%95%55%26 2022%2022+1 2 3&2018 2021 2002 20 2020 2025 98.196.964.928.356.6020406080100120%2024 01 23 P.17 3 2023 3.45 4.05 17.4%4.83 5.80 20.1%5.83 8.79 50.8%2024 01 23 P.18 27 2002/4/1 2002 515 2008/3/28 2004 36 2009/7/6 2009 1789 2010/12/31-2013/1/7 2013 29 2013/12/31 2013 2676 2016/4/19 2016 156 2018/6/21 2018 943 2020/7/31 2020 1262 2021/8/3 2021 45 2021/8/3 2021 46 2024 01 23 P.19 28 2002/4/1 2002 515 2003 2006 2013/10/18 641 2014/12/31 2014 151 2015/1/21 2015 119 2015/4/9 2015 90 PPP,2016/12/5 2016 65 2018/6/21 2018 943 2018/10/20 2018 2022-,2024 01 23 P.20 2019/4/29 2019 2021 2019 52 2020/4/7 2020 561,2025 2020/7/28 2020 1234 2021/5/9 2021 655 30%45%60%60%5000 2022/3/4 2022 2022 5,2 1 5000 2024 01 23 P.21 3.2.2 882531.WI 2012-2022 2022 20 15 2012-2022 35%2023 2.61%29 30 Wind Wind 31%32%Wind Wind 3.3 3.3.1&2018-2022 61.5%65.2%2050 80.0%2022 99.90%0.02 110.9/5.0%72.5%7 40%60%2 40%910 10910 1012 121417150246810121416182012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 19.821.522.025.728.529.129.932.336.142.740.7010203040502012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022()()46%44%46%45%52%42%49%45%40%37%36%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0.85%1.11%1.75%2.59%2.51%2.51%2.15%2.90%2.61%0%1%2%3%4%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 01 23 P.22 2022 12 2025 33 2013-2022 34 2013-2022 89.30%91.79%94.10%96.62%97.74%98.96%99.20%99.74%99.88%99.90%84%86%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%102%2013201420152016201720182019202020212022 49.2 53.5 57.7 62.1 68.0 76.6 87.0 96.3 105.7 110.9 10.3%8.7%7.9%7.6%9.5%12.6%13.6%10.7%9.8%5.0%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%0204060801001202013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/2024 01 23 P.23 35 2022%EPC 3.3.2 884040.WI 2012-2022 2022 21 14 2022 35%2023 1.43%36 37 Wind Wind 54.5 93.1 84.6 71.0 48.2 60.9 55.2 56.8 62.1 81.5 88.5 73.8 83.8 89.5 78.7 84.3 73.6 56.7 71.6 65.5 89.3 67.1 79.2 68.3 74.9 30.0 49.8 62.0 0.0 68.8 49.5 25.2 0102030405060708090100%72.5%1213 13 131112131415 151402468101214162012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 11.914.77.79.710.515.614.520.526.623.227.80510152025302012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()2024 01 23 P.24 38%39%Wind Wind 36%25%23%21%23%72%-28%44%36%42%35%-120%-80%-40%0%40%80%120%20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0.43%0.48%0.55%1.40%0.94%1.19%1.09%1.39%1.43%0%1%2%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 01 23 P.25 2023 1.4 1503.6%20/11 24 56 POX 21.7%22.2%1 2022 GDP 2022 2022-2025 2 2022 2022 5 1 4.5/3 2022 9.4 100%2022 7.6 1.2 2022 2022 4.75 50.2%2024 1 12 4.5%PE TTM 9.9x 2024 01 23 P.26 2021 1 2023 78.2 yoy+31.5%2 120%9pct 2023 11.7 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