20240115_海通证券_房地产行业2024年展望：政策聚焦化风险加速行业新均衡_26页.pdf
Table_MainInfo/2024 01 15 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo 2679.922873.833067.743261.663455.573649.492023/1 2023/4 2023/7 2023/10 Table_ReportInfo 2 2024.01.15 2024.01.15 24 1 2024.01.07 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:021-23185710 Email:S0850510120001:Tel:(021)23183953 Email:2024 Table_Summary 2023 2022 2022 2023 2023 2022 2023-3.8%-5%2023 11-9.4%-21.2%2024 2024 2024 2024 2024-0.8%-10.2%-2.7%-10.7%2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 9 2024 2024-8%-15%-7%-11.7%-4.5%-9.1%-14.8%1 A-A H-2 3 A 4 1 2024 2 2024 3 2 1.2023.6 1.1 2023.7 1.2 2023.9 2.2024.12 2.1.12 2.1.1.12 2.1.2.13 2.1.3.14 2.1.4.15 2.2 2024.16 2.3 2024.20 3.24 4.25 1ZDWvMqNmPqRqOtQmRpQqR6MaO8OmOmMmOmQkPmMmNeRqRrP6MqQvNuOrNxPwMqMpN 3 1 2020-2023.7 2 2020-2023.7 3 2020-2023.1-11%.7 4 2020-2023.1-11%.7 5 2020-2023 11.8 6%.8 7%.8 8%.8 9%.8 10 2023%.9 11%.10 12%.10 13%.11 14 2020-2023.11 15 2023 1-11.11 16 2020-2023 11%.12 17 2019-23 11%.12 18%.12 19%.12 20 6 33%.12 21=100.12 22 70.13 23=100.13 24=100.13 25 2024 1%.14 26.14 27.15 28.16 29.17 30.17 4 31.17 32.18 33.18 34 26.19 35 26.19 36.19 37.19 38.20 39.21 40 vs.22 41 vs.22 42 vs.23 43-.23 5 1.6 2.9 3 VS.10 4 2024.20 5.20 6 2024.24 7 2024.24 6 1.2023 2023 2022 12 27 2023 2023 2023 2022 2023-3.8%-5%2023 11-9.4%-21.2%2024 2023 7 12 1“”2 2024 2023 2024 1%2023 2022 2023 11 2023 2024/-4.1%/0.7%/5.9%-8.0%-11.4%/-6.6%/-3.3%-6.0%/-0.6%/8%-5.2%-14.8%/-9.1%/-4.5%-9.8%/-2%/5%-5.0%-11.7%/-9.8%/-7.0%-5%/0%/5%-21.2%2023-15%/-12%/-8%-1.2%/1.3%/6.9%-12.2%-10.2%/-5.6%/-0.8%-3.8%/0.3%/6.3%-9.4%-10.7%/-6.9%/-2.7%Wind 7 1.1 2023 2023 2024 1 2020-2023 Wind 2 2020-2023 Wind 2023 2023 3 2020-2023.1-11%Wind 4 2020-2023.1-11%Wind 2023 2023 2023 11 2023 2023 2022 8 5 2020-2023 11 wind 1 2023 2023 6%Wind 7%Wind 8%Wind 9%Wind 1 25 25 9 2023 11 7.1%7.4%2023 1-11 2022 2 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-11%-0.1%2.6%1.9%-24.3%-17.1%1.5%3.2%1.1%-26.8%-16.3%20.0%14.3%15.9%-24.0%-2.5%18.4%3.4%9.4%-37.7%4.2%-1.9%2.8%-1.1%-24.2%-20.8%6.5%8.7%4.8%-26.7%-11.2%10.3%10.8%5.3%-28.3%-10.1%32.8%17.1%24.6%-13.2%-0.4%25.1%14.0%15.8%-36.9%5.1%2.8%8.7%-2.3%-26.7%-19.2%=/6.6%5.9%2.8%-3.2%7.1%8.7%7.5%4.2%-2.0%7.4%10.7%2.5%7.5%14.1%2.2%5.6%10.2%5.8%1.2%0.9%4.8%5.7%-1.1%-3.3%2.0%Wind 1.2 2023 2023 1-11 10.40 9.4%1-10 0.1 7.89 76%11 9.0%7493 7%11 16.9%4145 4%11 10.0%1.36 13%11 7.1%2023 10 2023%Wind 10 2023 2023 1-11 3.74 5.0%2024 2024 3 VS 2015-2023 11%82%1 2 3-wind 11%Wind 12%Wind 2023 2024 2021 2022 4 2023 3 2024 2021 2021 2024 11 13%Wind 14 2020-2023 Wind 2023 1-11 11.70 13.4%1.42 12.2%43 0.04%3.85 32.9%6.43 54.9%2023 11-10.0%2022 11-30.1%-10.9%2023 11-20.3%2022 11-17.5%2023 11-9.8%2022 11-26.9%15 2023 1-11 wind 12.2%0.04%32.9%54.9%12 16 2020-2023 11%Wind 17 2019-23 11%Wind 18%Wind 19%Wind 2.2024 2.1 2.1.1 24 3 48 2024 6 33%4-8 20 6 33%CEIC 21=100 CEIC 13 2021 2023 11 22 70 Wind 2024 23=100 CEIC 24=100 Wind 2.1.2 2023 12 2023 2024 2024 2024 5.1%4.6%9 2024 8 2 3 6 2.0%2024 12 CME 12 15 3 70%2024 6 14 2024 1 25 2024 1%CME TradingView 2023 12 15 12 2023 9 4.02%5 LPR 2021 161 BP 5 LPR 26 Wind 2.1.3 12 14 1 30%50%40%25 30 30%50%40%2 LPR+10BP LPR+60BP LPR LPR+55BP LPR-10BP LPR+30BP LPR+20BP 15 3 1 1.0 2 144 3 5 85000/5-6 65000/6 45000/1 144 3 2022 600 144 25%14%14%5%7 2024 27 2.1.4 12 2022 2 25“”16 1）“”1 28 2“”1 2 12 2.2 2024 2024 2024 2022 2017 8-12 1 5 2022 17 2018-2021 2023 2024 2%0%-6%2017 2023 2023 4Q 2024-2%-4%-5%29 CREIS 30 CREIS 31 CREIS 2023 2023 2023 1-11-3.9%2024-1%-6%-10%2016 1%-2%2024-3%-5%-6%18 32 CREIS 33 CREIS 71 2016 6 26 37%2023 1-11 71 11980 12321 26 4778 40%5347 43%26 2016 2022 U 2023 12 2023 2022 2023 1-11 67865 19.3%71 18%26 7%26 2022 2023 11 31 2022 4.3%2024-4%-7%-12%-2%-3%-4%19 34 26 CREIS 35 26 CREIS 36 CREIS 37 CREIS 2023 2024-3.3%-6.6%-11.4%20-1.3%-2.7%-3.7%-4.5%-9.1%-14.8%2023 2024 Q2 4 2024 2%0%-6%-2%-4%-5%0.0%-4.0%-10.7%-1%-6%-10%-3%-5%-6%-4.0%-10.7%-15.4%-4%-7%-12%-2%-3%-4%-5.9%-9.8%-15.5%-3.3%-6.6%-11.4%-1.3%-2.7%-3.7%-4.5%-9.1%-14.8%CREIS WIND 2.3 2024 2023 1-11 54.9%3.4%0.9%40.8%95.7%5 2023 1-11%54.9%3.4%0.9%40.8%()Wind Table_PicPe 38 21 2016 2019 2023 11 88.0%40.8%35.9%10 1 50%1 2 3 4 2016 23 24 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 Q4-7%-8%-9%0%-2%-3%2024-7%-9.8%-11.7%39 Wind 22 40 vs Wind 2017 2024 2017 2024-8%-12%-15%41 vs Wind 23 42 vs Wind 2016-2023 11 67.23 1 2 2023 2024 2024 10%0%-10%43-Wind 24+-=2023 1-11 95873 2022 104753 8%2023-30%2024-70%-30%0%2024-4.6%-7.5%-9.3%2024 4%2%-1%=*2023-0.8%-5.6%-10.2%2019 30%70%2024-2.7%-6.9%-10.7%6 2024 2022 120587 86222 904999 104753 2023 1-11 87456 65237 831345 95873 2023%-21.0%10.0%-8.1%-30.0%2023 95264 94844 832091 73327 2024%-8.0%10.0%-4.6%-70.0%2024%-12.0%0.0%-7.5%-30.0%2024%-15.0%-10.0%-9.3%0.0%2024 87643 104329 793407 21998 2024 83832 94844 769750 51329 2024 80974 85360 754379 73327 Wind 7 2024 2024 2024 2024 2024 30%-7.0%-8.0%-9.0%0.0%-2.0%-3.0%-7.0%-9.8%-11.7%70%-8.0%-12.0%-15.0%10.0%0.0%-10.0%-4.6%-7.5%-9.3%4.0%2.0%-1.0%-0.8%-5.6%-10.2%100%-2.7%-6.9%-10.7%Wind 3.2024 25 1 2024 2024 2024 2024-0.8%-10.2%-2.7%-10.7%2 2023 2024 2023 2024 2023 9 2024 2024-8%-15%-7%-11.7%-4.5%-9.1%-14.8%1 A-A H-2 3 A 4 4.1 2024 2 2024 3 26 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,A,A,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%
