|2023 03 03 021-S0980518100002 021-1.2022 3072+32.4%2.2023 20%21 24%3.1 PB-ROE 2 3 4 5GYWFUzQrMsRmNqOpMtOqPoP9P9R6MsQoOnPmPjMoOoNlOoOoN8OqRnQxNoPmMMYoMsO 01 02 03 04 05 1 ARPU 2C 2B ARPU 2021 7514 89%4028 93%2961 90%5549 65%1842 42%1641 50%95689 37243 31712ARPU 48.8 45 43.9 942 11%1135 26%448 14%24011 16971 9505ARPU 34.7 45.9 41.3 1673 20%989 23%548 17%969 11%368 8%317 10%8483 100%4342 100%3278 100%2250 27%1333 31%530 16%1930 23%930 21%857 26%1187 14%761 18%589 18%482 6%486 11%322 10%492 6%126 3%370 11%201 2%129 3%116 4%961 11%304 7%307 9%7502 88%4086 94%3092 94%1180 14%309 7%177 5%342 4%-58-1%28 1%1163 14%260 6%144 4%1 ARPU/%01 02 03 04 05 2 5G ARPU ARPU5G ICT 5G 5G 2C 2B 2C ARPU 5G 2B 2B 2 2021 ARPU ARPU 3%Wind-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3G4G5G 4%Wind 5%2C ARPU 6 ARPU/20253035404550556065702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ARPU ARPU ARPU ARPU ARPU ARPU-0.4%-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%02468101214161820-0620-0720-0820-0920-1020-1120-1221-0221-0321-0421-0521-0621-0721-0821-0921-1021-1121-1222-0222-0322-0422-05()yoyARPU-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YOY2C ARPU 4G/5G 5G 1%ARPU 2C ARPU 5G VoNR ARPU 2B 8 DICT 051015202530354045502014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 7 2020 IDC%.05101520253035404550,29%,23%,17%,6%,5%,3%,2%,2%,2%,1%,10%2 2021.%724 30%10 57 279 102%33 59 242 114%29 33 201 34%9 32 163 46.30%31 51 151 64.00%7 18 91 37.76%-Ucloud 29 18.46%-10 67.84%-.8 2B 2B 2B 2B 2B 1800 5G 2B 5G 0 1 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00002004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002019 2020 2021 3 2B 5G 4400 3500 2500 4 5G 20 9 2021%5%2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR 725 897 1,129 1,371 17.3%DICT 157 261 435 623 41.1%IDC 72 105 162 216 31.6%13 20 92 242 107.7%ICT 25 67 107 144 54.9%48 69 74-60 88 95 114 2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR 693 765 840 989 9.3%45 71 112 279 57.8%IDC 234 254 280 316 7.8%205 206 207-178 197 197-15 19 22-2018 2019 2020 2021 CAGR 230 329 427 548 24.2%IDC 138 162 196-10 24 111 163 100.9%21 30 42 60 30.0%6 12 17 26 44.3%IT 56 100 134-0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2C 2B B IDC IOT ICT B 20%10 11 12%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 05001,0001,5002,0002,5002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5G 4G 5G 0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022E 0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 2022E 4G 5G 0%20%40%60%80%100%2019 2020 2021 5G 4G VS 5G 4G 2013 2014-2016 5G 4G 5G 14 4G 15 5G 14831041137590650204060801001202013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20194G135970 70656050010203040506070802019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E5G 5G 5G 2019 9 5G 2020 5G 15 400 2021 1 5G 700MHz 5G 2021 2020-2025 2100 2020 2021 4G 16%17 GSMA 2,2642,4952,9563,3843,7534,3863,5623,0832,8692,9983,3493,456-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021运营商资本开支 YoY 5-10+2019 19%5 8 30 8-30 10-30 3%-5%3.17%-9.70%5 10 6-10 5-10 3%-5%9.50%-19.40%3 10 5-10 5-10 3%-5%9.50%-19.40%6 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 3711 3635 3415 3125 2855 2773 2709 2581 788 518 417 535 700 700 600 500 768 775 758 831 805 782 764 728 17%17%18%22%22%22%22%22%2019 721 421 449 564 700 700 600 500 21 2019 5G 5G 18%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 4G 2019 1 2 20 19 Wind 30.712.559.577.95051015202530352016 2017 2018 20190%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%2018 2019 2020 2021 22%Wind 2016-2021 7.3%12%21%Wind 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 24 Wind 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 101520252018 2019 2020 2020-2022 5G 2022-2023 10%10%15%20%2019 2020 20212022E 2023E 2024E2019 2020 20212022E 2023E 2024E2019 2020 20212022E 2023E 2024E 95,028 94,192 95,689 1.0%1.0%0.8%33,557 35,102 37,243 4%2%1%31,848 30,581 31,712 2.5%2.0%1.5%ARPU 49 47 49-0.8%-4%-3%46 44 45-4.0%-2.3%-1.2%40 42 44 0%-1%-1%18,704 21,032 24,011 8%6%4%15,313 15,853 16,971 5%3%1%8,348 8,609 9,505 6%4%2%ARPU 33 34 35 8%4%2%38 38 39 1%0%-1%42 42 41 3%2%1%897 1,129 1,371 30%27%25%765 840 989 23.0%21.5%20.0%329 427 548 25%25%25%715 724 968 25%20%15%146 161 313 50.0%30.0%20.0%261 280 317 50.0%40.0%30.0%7,459 7,681 8,483 10.9%8.1%7.8%3722 3899 4342 10.3%9.9%9.0%2,905 3,038 3,279 8.1%7.1%6.7%1,651 1,967 2,159 29.8%30.1%30.5%651 709 794 19.5%19.6%19.7%432 463 531 18.6%20.0%20.9%1,757 1,646 1,848 23.3%21.9%20.7%835 858 882 21.5%21.5%21.6%791 786 815 22.5%20.6%19.0%753 744 829 11.1%11.2%11.3%422 433 486 12.2%12.3%12.3%360 376 401 18.5%19.0%19.0%528 499 482 5.3%5.3%5.2%519 489 522 11.9%11.9%11.9%335 305 322 11.0%11.5%12.0%67 111 156 1.9%2.0%2.1%42 47 69 1.5%1.5%1.6%17 30 48 1.50%1.50%1.50%210 198 201 200 205 210 127 121 129 128.6 129 128.6 115 106 116 124.0 151.8 182.3 726 731 961 1199 1438 1654 134 154 304 446.5 580 696.5 264 269 307 354.3 360.6 364.6 1,065 1,081 1,161 1259 1383 1532 207 211 262 288 319 352 50 55 63 72 90 108同比增长 1.4%7.5%8.6%9.9%10.4%1.6%24.4%11.1%10.7%10.4%10.8%14.2%14.9%24.0%19.7%14.7%14.5%13.7%13.4%13.6%13.9%5.5%5.4%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.1%1.7%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.4%2.7%ROE 9.7%9.9%10.3%10.4%11.4%5.7%6.1%6.5%7.1%7.6%3.7%4.2%4.7%5.7%6.6%7 Wind 01 02 03 04 05 B 5G 5G B 5G+2020 70 92 23 5G 114 5G 2B 5G 4G 5G C B 24 5G 114 2020 GDP 7.8%2025 10%IDC 2021-2022 1 GDP 25 26 CCTV13 28 10ms 10-30ms 30ms AI 27 30+OTT OTT 29 31 IDC 4+3+X 32 IDC 5+2+31+X 33 IDC 2+4+31+X+O();31 4 34 35 对内 对外一次价值业务贯通二次价值数智决策三次价值流通赋能数据支撑业务系统运转，推动业务数字化转型与贯 通数据分析使战略 决策更智慧，支撑业 务智能化决策数据流通对外赋 能，打破数据壁垒，数据更普惠 GDP 2021-2022 GDP 2021 14.7%0.83 2021 3.044 2021 ROA 3.60%ROA-1.10%8 2021 0.1014 0.0989 0.0027 0.0084 0.0016 0.0031 0.4643 0.0048 3.0440 0.0021 0.0363 0.5736 0.0295 1.5699 2021-2022 36 GDP%2021-2022 0.720.740.760.780.800.820.840.8611%12%12%13%13%14%14%15%15%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GDP GDP 37 ROA%2021-2022-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%2020 2021 38 38%39 2C%2C 2B 3G/4G 2C 4G 2C 2C 6%3G 4G 2017 5G 50%41%40 3 CAGR%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600 2018 2019 2020 2021 3 CAGR0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2C 业务收入增速 2B 业务收入增速-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021移动互联网用户规模增速 规模以上互联网及相关服务企业收入 增速 01 02 03 04 05 IDC IDC ICT 42 ICT VS 9 DICT 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021IDC 234 254 162 216 196-97 242 112 279 112 163IOT 15 19 75 88 21 30ICT 197 193 25 67 62 113 491 536 185 280 230 329 9%52%43%4010051015202530354045 ICT 43 44 010203040506070 2020 40.7 47.0 31.2 12.7 93%78%13%9%5.4 81%+3.8 3.0 3.6 1.6 5.0 7 10 Wind 22 18 16 21 33/59/51 IDC 2018-2021 165%/84%/153%0510152025 2021 2022E 46 Wind 45 Wind 2G 4G 2014-2018 2018 0200004000060000800001000001200002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0500010000150002000025000300002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 48 ARPU/Wind 47 ARPU/Wind ARPU ARPU ARPU 3035404550552018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 50 51 49 5G 2019 2.6GHz 5G 160MHz 4G 5G 4G 60MHz 2.67 15 2 4G 120W 240W 05001,0001,5002,0002,5002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 01002003004002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 AAU/RRU W BBU W 5G100%1127 29350%892 293 633 2934G100%289 17550%273 174 222 169 11 4G/5G 5G 5G 2019 5G ROE 52 Wind 53 Wind 54 Wind 5G 5G ARPU 55 Wind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 56 Wind ROE 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 01 02 03 04 05 PB 1 ROE ROE PB 1 PS 57 Wind AIOT PB 1PS 1 ROE PB 10 PB ROE ROE PB 58 ROE Wind 59 PB TTM Wind 2021.01.10 0112232012-03-012012-06-012012-09-012012-12-012013-03-012013-06-012013-09-012013-12-012014-03-012014-06-012014-09-012014-12-012015-03-012015-06-012015-09-012015-12-012016-03-012016-06-012016-09-012016-12-012017-03-012017-06-012017-09-012017-12-012018-03-012018-06-012018-09-012018-12-012019-03-012019-06-012019-09-012019-12-012020-03-012020-06-012020-09-012020-12-012021-03-012021-06-012021-09-012021-12-012022-03-012022-06-012022-09-012022-12-01 0941.HK 0728.HK 0762.HK-5051015202012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 PB 61 2021 ROE%62 BP MRQ Wind Wind PB 1.84X PB PB MRQ PB MRQ 1.84X 2023 3 1 PB MRQ 1.42/1.35/1.19X PB PB PB 2013-2017 4G PB 2X-2.5X 2020 0.6 PB 0.9 4G 63 PB Wind PB 2022 12 PB 1.2.3.1.2.3.4.1.2.3.4.1.2.39 1.2.3.1.2.3.4.1.2.40 2=+60%70%TTM 4.7%TTM 4.6%2023 3 2 23 5.5%5.3%23 9.9%/10.7%/24.0%5%23 16%10 2023 3 2 TTM 2021 232023 23 23 4.71%60.04%5.50%70%9.9%15.94%4.57%60.43%5.33%70%10.7%16.60%1.74%45.78%1.74%45%24.0%26.16%Wind 23 23 22 3 PS PS 22 7 4 8 3000 6000 23 3072/3360/2160 22 118%22-23 480/768+100%/100%23 12692 1830 1912 22-23 560/840+100%/80%23 4511 920 952 22-23 300/540+100%/80%23 1573 650 784 23 PS 4X 3072/3360/2304 11 2023 3 2 2021 2022E 2023E PS 23 23 PB=1 242 486 972 4 3888 486 972 279 560 1008 4 4032 560 840 163 326 587 4 2347 326 587 Wind 3 PE PE 1 A 23 2263/1417/856 A 2021 3%23 PE 50-85X 3395-5770 2126-3163 1284-2183 A 2021 427 2.6%23 Wind PE 83X 2023 3 2 IT 2021 105 3.7%23 Wind PE 49X 2023 3 2 2 PB=1 23 12692/4511/1573 12 2023 3 2 23 PE 23 PE 23 23 PB=1 2263 3%68 50 3395 80 5431 12692 18101 1417 3%43 50 2126 80 3401 4511 5902 856 3%26 50 1284 80 2054 1573 1904 Wind 4 DDM DDM 2 22-31 TV 7%TV 10.5%10 2%2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E VT 1.23%2.97%10.44%10.88%8.14%7.79%5.72%3.95%3.81%3.92%3.62%3.32%3.02%2%/68.75%69.43%71.19%71.21%70.77%70.33%70.00%69.85%69.70%69.55%69.40%69.25%69.10%/14.53%14.64%13.80%13.30%13.38%13.43%13.41%13.37%13.34%13.31%13.28%13.25%13.22%24.92%24.04%23.61%23.62%24.00%24.00%24.00%24.00%24.00%24.00%24.00%24.00%24.00%50.31%55.55%49.85%55.00%70.00%70.00%70.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%-3.24 4.53 5.00 5.40 6.47 6.77 7.10 7.44 7.78 8.11 97.77 PV()-3.03 3.96 4.08 4.12 4.61 4.51 4.42 4.33 4.23 4.12 49.70 91.12 13 DDM Wind 4 14 DDM Wind 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E VT-0.73%4.77%11.34%10.27%9.91%9.00%8.00%7.30%6.50%5.70%4.90%4.40%3.90%2%/69.57%69.80%70.79%70.41%70.43%70.37%70.32%70.22%70.12%70.02%69.92%69.82%69.72%/22.14%20.99%22.31%20.85%20.88%20.92%20.92%20.91%20.92%20.91%20.87%20.82%20.77%23.38%23.02%22.78%23.00%23.00%23.00%23.00%23.00%23.00%23.00%23.00%23.00%23.00%64.68%61.51%42.67%55.00%70.00%70.00%70.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%80.00%-0.17 0.24 0.27 0.30 0.37 0.41 0.45 0.48 0.52 0.56 6.53 PV()-0.16 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.29 3.32 5.81 4 Wind 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031EVT-0.12%4.59%7.90%8.06%7.13%6.74%6.64%6.54%6.44%6.34%6.24%6.14%6.04%2%/73.71%73.90%75.45%74.45%73.65%72.85%72.82%72.79%72.76%72.73%72.70%72.67%72.64%/20.50%19.86%19.82%19.75%19.67%19.59%19.55%19.48%19.41%19.34%19.27%19.20%19.13%19.74%21.52%19.04%22.00%22.00%22.00%22.00%22.00%22.00%22.00%22.00%22.00%22.00%-50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%-0.12 0.14 0.17 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.27 0.29 0.31 3.77 PV()0.11 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 1.91 3.35 14 DDM ROE 20-22 27%/28%/32%2023 20%21 24%AI 30%20-22 35%/36%/58%20-22 86%/92%/118%23 70%60%21 8 A 70%23 AI AI 1 2 ICT 3 ICT 4 5 6 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告