20230303_东方证券_纺织服装行业证券研究报告：景气度逐季提升看好高端运动赛道高增_23页.pdf
|2022 2022 3,627 2.2%2022-2026 9.1%2022 1.9 1.1 1.3pct 1.1 4pct 2023 1 22Q2 Q4 2 23H2 2022 22Q4 2023H1 23H2 3 a+b c 2017 2017 4 2021+1 2 2022 11 5(02331)(02020)(01368)(03998)(06110)(603908)/2023 03 03 021-63325888*6076 S0860511010001 021-63325888*6107 S0860521070006 BSW044 2023-02-26 2023-02-20 1 2023-02-13 2 2022.4.4 2023.5.5 23H2.7.8.15.17.17.17.17.18.18.18.19.20 1ZBYwPnQpMnMoQtQtOtMoPaQ8QaQmOrRmOoNlOrRnOiNmMrObRrRuMuOmQoRvPpMrN 3 1.4 2.5 3.5 4 2019.6 5 2019.6 6.6 7.8 8.8 9.8 10 2022.10 11.10 12 2018 2021.10 13.12 14 2014-2025.12 15.14 16.14 17.15 18 80%.15 1.4 2.4 3.7 4.9 5 2016.9 6 Top 10.11 7.11 8.13 9.14 10.15 4 2022 2022 3,627 2.2%2022-6.7%-6.6%-5.7%2022-2026E 9.1%1 1 2008-2019CAGR 2019-2022CAGR 2022-2026E CAGR 2022YoY 10.8%4.3%9.1%2.2%7.2%-2.9%4.6%-6.7%8.6%-2.4%5.1%-6.6%11.5%-0.2%9%-5.7%2022 CR10 85.5%0.4pct 2022 1.9 1.1 1.3pct 1.1 4pct 2 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2021vs2020 2022vs2021 1 Nike 22.4%23.1%24.0%26.0%23.7%22.6%-2.3pct-1.1pct 2 11.0%12.9%15.0%16.0%18.5%20.4%2.5pct 1.9pct 3 adidas 18.6%19.4%19.0%16.8%15.2%11.2%-1.6pct-4.0pct 4 6.2%6.0%6.5%6.8%9.3%10.4%2.5pct 1.1pct 5 4.5%4.7%4.8%4.6%5.0%6.3%0.4pct 1.3pct 6 Skechers 3.9%4.9%5.3%5.9%6.6%6.0%0.7pct-0.6pct 11%13%9%-2%-3%10%13%14%16%21%19%-2%14%2%11%10%9%8%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000 YoY 5 7 361 3.8%3.1%2.9%2.7%2.7%3.1%0.0pct 0.4pct 8 VF 2.2%2.2%2.3%2.5%2.3%2.4%-0.2pct 0.1pct 9 NewBalance 3.0%2.2%1.8%1.6%1.5%1.7%-0.1pct 0.2pct 10 lululemon 0.2%0.3%0.5%0.8%1.1%1.4%0.3pct 0.3pct 75.8%78.8%82.1%83.7%85.9%85.5%2.2pct-0.4%2023 22Q2 Q4 wind 2022 3-5 11-12 Q4 Q4 FILA 10%-20%2 wind 2023 12.2%10%13.5%2023 2019 89%83%1 28.1 0.3%22 12 29%2020 1 10%3 9%-8%-5%-3%-1%-1%-15%-26%-20%3%1%6%-1%-9%-17%-14%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%6 23H1 Q2 Q4 618 2020 2020 2.4%2021 2019-2021CAGR 5.3%23H2 4 2019 5 2019 60 25 13 6-11%-21%-12%-13%-32%-28%-27%-30%-24%13%-46%-43%-38%-19%-15%-14%7%-16%-14%-18%-29%0%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-2339%59%51%79%75%95%103%99%87%70%74%68%67%87%73%61%43%89%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 20212022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 50%69%61%88%78%60%75%76%90%85%76%58%66%76%83%73%82%83%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 20222022 2022 2023 2023 7 23H2 2022 2022 618 GMV 5,830 1%2022 2020 2020 GMV 105%2023H1 23H2 3 22Q4 4 5 Q4 FILA 7-8 2%-3%FILA 74-75 85-86 5+3Q22 FILA FILA FILA 8 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q4 7 2022Q4 5.5 0.5-1 2023H1 5 4 7/0123456782 3 4 5-6 7-9 10 11 12+8 7.5pcts/2.5pcts FY23Q1 FY22Q4 15%FY23Q1 FY23Q2 FY23Q2 3%-3%22Q3 63%11 7 2021-2022 2019-2020 2019 5 1-2020 4 30 49%2020-2021 2021-2022 2,154 4%8 9-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2021H1 2021 2022H1 3 9 2021-2022:5 1-4 30 2019 4 77.60%90%2 18.79%3-4 3.61%1 2021-2022 1 2022 2 3 1%5 2016 2016(2016 2025)2025 5 20 1,195 1,445 1,690 1,915 2,060 1,045 2,076 2,154-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%-500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 YoY 35%34%23%22%18%13%12%9%8%6%1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%10 2016(2016 2022)2022 650 800 10000 3500 2016 2016-2020 23 2019 2022 2021 2021-2023 2023 10 2022 2021-2022 2021 42 2018-2021 27.4%1 8,800 900 300 610 2,100 11 12 2018 2021 11 2021-2022 2021-2022 6 Top 10()1 65,000 2 55,700 3 55,000 4 SnowWorldLandgraaf 35,000 5 AlpincenterHamburgWittenburg 30,000 5 30,000 7 SkiDubai 27,870 8 SNORASSnowArena 25,000 9 Xanadu 24,000 10 22,000 2021-2022 2015 3,000 7 BOGNER 1932 2018 15,00023,000 Burton 1977 2002 1,5006,000 DESCENTE 1935 2016 2,990-15,000 Fusalp 1952 2019 4,00010,000 HEAD 1950 2016 1,5005,000 HellyHansen 1877 2012 4,00018,000 KJUS 2000 2019 6,00012,000 59141821263136420510152025303540452013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20213.0%27.4%0.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%12 PeakPerformance 1986 2013 2,8004,200 Phenix 1952 2008 1,0005,000 ROSSIGNOL 1907 2018 IDG 1,5007,500 Spyder 1978 2019 1,0008,000 Templa 2017 2020 7,00015,000 VOLCOM 1991 2015 1,5005,000 2020 2020-2022 290%/230%/746%2022 121%2022 350%90%117%130%Kamp grounds of America KOA 2022 5,700 2021 2020 18%KOA Outdoor Foundation 2020 1.6 2pct 2023 13 Outdoor Foundation 14 2014-2025 13.8%15.8%51.3%52.9%10%20%30%40%50%60%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 13 2017 2017 2017 3“”2016 2017 8 2017 2022 500“”2020 100 119 131 149 255 376 460 748 1,135 1,334 2,140 2,483 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 14+15 16 NGF Golfzon 2022“”2020 2022 2022 TEENIEWEENIE IP 9/445 1882 LecoqsportifGolf 2004 21 1935 DESCENTEGOLF 133 1906 1931 1933 102 1998“”1972 1984 1986 Nike 449 2000 2007 2021 HAZZYSGOLF-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%75808590951001052015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 yoy0.1%7.3%7.4%5.1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%05001,0001,5002,0002,500 15 1889“”TEENIEWEENIE 1997 2017 2022 2022 7+2021 2021 3 NIKE ADIDAS 21 7 1 Z 95-00 Z 80-90 2 3 17 18 80%1 2 2022 11 10 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 vs2020 vs2021 42%9%1%-24%-8%-20%-13%6%5.5%13.0%26.4%55.1%7.6%11.6%17.7%29.6%33.5%/IP 16 156%-16%-15%-24%-35%-35%-27%48%-15%-25%-27%-25%-24%-8%85-90%90-95%40-45%30-35%25%-30%10%90-95%85-90%30%25-30%30%20%-25%80-85%90-95%35-40%25-30%20%-25%10%-15%100%+95-100%50%40-45%30%20%40-45%35-40%10-15%15%15%-20%FILA 75-80%30-35%10%-15%10-15%115-120%70-75%35-40%30-35%40%-45%20%-25%40%-45%10-20%55%30-35%20-25%30%-35%20%-25%17 2023 LI-NINGSNOWBOARDING 2022-2024 1.79 2.25 2.75 FILA 80 2016 1973 1989 2022-2024 2.67 3.44 4.18 2025 2025 200 2021-2025 CAGR23%40 2021-2025 CAGR36%2022-2024 0.35 0.44 0.55“”18 2019 2021 2.0 2021 12(Bogner)Bogner Bogner FY23-25 0.22 0.26 0.31“”2021+FY23-25 0.33 0.41 0.47“”OEM/ODM 2020 OEM/ODM 2022-2024 2.09 2.77 3.85“”19 5(02331)(02020)(01368)(03998)(06110)(603908)20 1 2 3 21 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
