/2023 02 28%1M 3M 12M-2.05 2.07-13.51 300-3.14 5.74-11.02:S0530522050002 1 2023 2022-12-31 2021A 2022E 2023E EPS PE EPS PE EPS PE 2.78 20.04 1.92 28.97 2.72 20.48 1.56 17.64 0.97 28.28 1.87 14.67 0.36 34.08 0.24 51.13 0.65 18.88 0.43 34.19 0.61 23.91 0.88 16.73 0.52 40.15 0.64 32.85 0.82 25.33 iFinD 22 23 22 23 5-10%4-8%2023 16GW 1600 3000/kw 5%10%30%-50%4-8%GW GW 10MW 20MW 2MW 4MW 4MW 8MW 2020 63.3%86.6%33.0%0.6%60%-70%10%-38%-18%2%22%2022-02 2022-05 2022-08 2022-11 2023-02 300 -2-1 2 0 1 1 100 3 XVBYvMqNpMrQtNmPrMoRoP6MdN7NpNpPnPmPjMrRtQjMoOmNbRrQmQwMnMrMwMmRqM-3-1 23.5 2.6 2.1.7 2.2.10 2.3.12 3.18 3.1 300850.SZ.18 3.2 603985.SH 23.20 3.3 300421.SZ+.22 3.1 603667.SH.24 3.2 300718.SZ.25 3.3 300817.SZ.26 4.28 1.5 2 GW%.5 3 GW%.5 4 GW%.6 5 GW%.6 6.6 7 2010-2021 MW.8 8 2021.8 9 2021.8 10 2021.8 11 GW%.10 12 GW%.10 13 2019.11 14 2020.11 15.12 16 MW.12 17.12 18.13 19.13 20 23 5GW 5%.14 21 23 1GW 10%.14 22.15 23.15 24.16 25.16 -4-26.17 27.18 28.18 29%.19 30%.19 31%.20 32.20 33.20 34%.22 35%.22 36%.22 37%.23 38%.23 39%.23 40%.24 41%.24 42%.25 43%.26 44%.26 45%.26 46 SF.27 47 JF.27 48%.27 49%.27 50%.28 1.7 2 3.0MW.9 3 2022.10 4.18 5.19 6 21-5 12MW.21 7 21-4000.21 8 21-10.21 -5-1 23 1 GWEC 2020 2021 2020 69GW 2021 16.9GW 70GW 1 21-25 31 40 65 75 85GW 296GW 2 21-25 16.9 4.5 12 15 18GW 66.4GW 3 21-25 362.4GW 72.5GW 4 2022 2023 75GW 50%60%160%2 GW%3 GW%2021 2021-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%01020304050607080901002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E新增装机 同比-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%0.005.0010.0015.0020.002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E海风 同比0%50%100%150%200%250%0204060801002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E海风 同比平 价 时代：2021 年开始 竞 价 配置：2018-2020 年 弃 风 限电：2016-2017 年 国 产 化阶 段：2013-2015 规 模 化初 期：2008-2012 年 -6-4 GW%5 GW%CWEA CWEA 3060 50%2022 100GW 85GW 15GW 2+6-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%01020304050607080902010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E陆风 同比0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.002010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E2025E陆风 同比-7-MW GW=GW*MW*MW*5MW 10MW 200 100 MW MW 1 2 3 4 5 2020 2021 2022 1 2.1 2014-2018 1.82.1MW 3.63.9MW 2019 CEWA 2021 3.1MW 2010 106.67%5.6MW 2010 115.38%-8-7 2010-2021 MW CWEA 2021 3MW 6MW GWEA 2021 40%3.0-3.9MW 3.0MW 77%73.10%3MW 3.0-3.9MW 54.1%58%6MW 6.0-6.9MW 45.9%8 2021 CWEA 9 2021 10 2021 CWEA CWEA 1.5 1.51.61.71.8 1.81.92.1 2.12.42.63.12.62.72.81.93.93.63.83.73.84.24.95.601234562010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021陆上 海上19.73%40.11%16.53%8.14%12.13%3.14%1.0MW1.0-1.5MW1.5-1.9MW2.0-2.9MW3.0-3.9MW4.0-4.9MW5.0-5.9MW26.60%54.10%15.70%3.30%1.5MW1.5-1.9MW2.0-2.9MW3.0-3.9MW4.0-4.9MW5MW及以上19.20%22.50%45.90%9.40%2.70%4.0MW4.0-4.9MW5.0-5.9MW6.0-6.9MW7.0-7.9MW8MW 及以上-9-GW GW 1 GW 3.MW 3-4MW 4-6MW 50 60/3.5MW 5MW GW 1.43/GW 1.2/GW 43%GW 16%2 GW 3-4MW 4-5MW 5-6MW 12.95 17.98 25.88/3.5 4.5 5.5MW GW 1.48 1.6 1.88/GW 29%22%GW 8%17.5%GW 3.5MW 4.5MW 4.5MW 5.5MW 1MW 2 3.0MW GW/GW()()1 3MW N 4MW 1,200 50 60,000 1.43 2 4MW N 6MW 300 60 18,000 1.2 1,500 78,000 1 3MW N 4MW 3,240 12.95 41,958 1.48 2 4MW N 5MW 1,620 17.98 29,132 1.6 3 5MW N 6MW 540 25.88 13,976 1.88 5,400 85,065 6,900 163,065 -10-3 2022 mw/1GW GW/GW()()3-6MW 1 30,000 2.05 61,500 4.5 25 222 1.14 2 13,500 1.78 24,000 3 1,500 3 4,500 45,000 2 90,000 6-10MW 1 7,500 3.87 29,000 8 25 125 1.21 2 4,500 6.67 30,000 3 500 9 4,500 12,500 5.08 63,500 57,500 2.67 153,500 2.2 2020 68.61GW 77.58%2021 46.16%2021 2021 21.1GW 16.9GW 80.07%11 GW%12 GW%GWEC GWEC Wood Mackenzie 2019 100%93%89%80%75%73%0%20%40%60%80%100%陆风 海风0%10%20%30%40%50%陆风 海风-11-50%33%SKF 2020 20401 479424 77975 16.3%83.7%0.6%13 2019 14 2020 WoodMackenzie&30%0%20%40%60%80%100%63.32%86.55%32.97%0.58%0.22%16.26%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%0100000200000300000400000500000600000国产轴承销量，套 国内风机所需轴承，套 国产化率-12-15 16 MW 2.3 17 9.4112.5616.5729.25.337.6313.7619.910510152025302MW 2.5MW 3MW 4MW斯凯孚 国内厂商平均2.673.054.594.984.565.065.527.3024682MW 2.5MW 3MW 4MW国内厂商平均 斯凯孚-13-30-50%22 10 25 GW 2.6 1.5 6-7 4-5 2-3 1 20%2 3 4 18 19 5-10%5%10%2023 1 11 2023 16GW 1 5GW 1644/kw 1819/kw 10.64%1452/kw 11.68%5%2 1GW 2900/kw 3550/kw 22.41%2353/kw 18.86%10%4-8%30%-50%1 17/GW 2.5/GW 30%-50%GW 1.25-1.75/GW 0.75-1.25/GW 4.4%-7.35%2 35/GW 4.5/GW 30%-50%GW 2.25-3.15 -14-/GW 1.35-2.25/GW 3.86%-6.43%20 23 5GW 5%21 23 1GW 10%20-11.68%-4.14%-3.59%-1.46%-1.09%-0.61%-0.43%-0.24%-0.24%1.70%4.68%6.63%10.64%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%0200400600800100012001400160018002000单价，元/kw 相对均价的变动幅度-18.86%-8.97%-8.97%-5.83%-2.24%-1.38%4.48%9.07%10.34%22.41%-25.00%-20.00%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%05001000150020002500300035004000单价，元/kw 相对均价的变动幅度-15-60%22 2020 9.3%11.0%NREL 60%67%25%5%5%15%22 10 25 23 23%19%19%17%12%9%1%风机运维 运维船维护 保险 管理成本大型部件故障 辅助设备 监测与调查-16-24 20 15%25 -17-1 GB/T 18254 GB/T 18579 2 3 4 26 GB/T4661 2002 0 GB/T4661-2015 G1 G1A G2 G2A G3 G5 5MW 5MW -18-4 Ra max G1 0.1 0.125 1.25 G1A 0.125 0.16 1.25 G2 0.125 0.2 1.25 G2A 0.16 0.25 2.5 G3 0.2 0.32 2.5 G5 0.25 0.32 2.5 GB/T4661-2015 3 3.1 300850.SZ 2020 7MW 2022 7 12MW MW 712MW 40%2022Q1 60%27 28 2020 2.0MW 2021 9.35 3.0MW 5,400 1,500 2022 11.13 57,500 3-6MW 45,000 6-10MW 12,500 -19-5 2020 IPO 2021 2022 2.0MW 3.0MW 2.0MW 3.0MW 3-6MW 6-10MW 3.2 9.35 11.13 2 2 3 2020 6 22 50%23 2022 1 2024 2024 30%2025 70%2026 29,564.10 5,675.39 6.54 2 20.14%163,065.00 27,879.00 153,500 53,148 27,422 6.9 19.76%22 2022 19.53 2.79%3.34 16.56%3.32 11.55%29.09%2.30 17.56%3.49 6.91 8.04%11.65%0.91 59.38%36.96%0.89 42.01%23.74%25.03%12.07 3.03 13.50%21.65 10.53 29%30%1.041.721.462.221.453.977.687.545.626.996.395.776.446.186.910.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%39.5%130.9%428.2%240.0%287.6%75.9%-16.8%-23.4%14.7%-11.5%8.0%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%500%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00单季度营业总收入 单季度营收增长率（%）0.090.220.250.430.270.731.591.660.731.022.251.140.981.450.910.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%189.1%238.8%525.1%281.5%168.3%40.0%41.7%-31.1%34.0%41.4%-59.4%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%0.000.501.001.502.002.50单季度归属净利润 单季度归属利润增长率(%)-20-31%3.2 603985.SH 23 2003 7MW 9MW 2021 4000 2022 Q3 32 33 2021 9 14.74 5 12MW 4000 10 9MW 12MW 26.0%28.5%32.5%34.5%34.4%33.2%33.7%24.9%27.3%29.4%37.1%29.0%34.4%28.1%25.0%9.1%12.5%17.4%19.6%18.8%18.4%20.6%22.0%13.0%14.6%35.1%19.9%15.7%24.0%13.5%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%单季度毛利率(%)单季度净利率(%)-21-6 21-5 12MW 2 3 4 5 6 7-12 15,000.00 35,000.00 40,000.00 47,500.00 50,000.00 50,000.00/2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 2.07 31,061.95 72,477.88 82,831.86 98,362.83 103,539.82 103,539.82 7 21-4000 2 3 4 5 6 7-12 1,000.00 2,600.00 3,000.00 3,800.00 4,000.00 4,000.00/47.79 47.79 47.79 47.79 47.79 47.79 47,787.61 124,247.79 143,362.83 181,592.92 191,150.44 191,150.44 8 21-10 2 3 4 5 6 7-12 17,500.00 45,500.00 52,500.00 66,500.00 70,000.00 70,000.00/2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 37,942.48 98,650.44 113,827.43 144,181.42 151,769.91 151,769.91 7,500.00 19,500.00 22,500.00 28,500.00 30,000.00 30,000.00/1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 1.73 13,008.85 33,823.01 39,026.55 49,433.63 52,035.40 52,035.40 22 23 2022 0.85-1.15 2021 3.27-3.57 73.98%80.77%1 22 Q1-Q4 0.13/0.3/0.14/0.43 21 Q1-Q4 1.39/1.04/0.94/1.05 22-90.91%/-71.34%/-84.96%/-59.05%Q4 Q3 25 22 1 2022 2 3 2023 22 23 -22-34%35%36%3.3 300421.SZ+2022 7.08 5.87%0.40 53.02%17.18%6.94 5.69%5.71 2.35 6.76%2.61%2.643.723.554.403.876.636.257.096.245.685.385.633.724.395.4521.4%39.9%16.4%10.9%46.5%78.4%76.1%61.0%61.3%-14.4%-13.9%-20.6%-40.4%-22.6%1.3%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00单季度营业总收入 单季度营收增长率（%）0.230.410.46-0.270.501.281.321.531.391.040.941.050.130.300.14-14.8%32.3%28.4%-184.7%118.3%213.5%187.7%676.6%177.7%-18.3%-28.8%-31.7%-90.9%-71.3%-85.0%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%-0.40-0.200.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80单季度归属净利润 单季度归属利润增长率(%)22.8%25.2%26.5%28.8%26.1%33.2%35.6%24.3%34.3%32.9%18.8%9.7%11.4%11.9%7.4%7.8%11.6%12.9%-12.1%12.4%19.3%20.8%21.2%22.4%18.4%17.3%18.2%3.4%6.8%2.6%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%单季度毛利率(%)单季度净利率(%)-23-0.10 55.13%41.04%9.27%15.90 12.19 4.42%4.77 2.88 1 2 3 4 37%38%39%+0 1 1 21 5100 2 1.711.811.89 1.871.461.912.082.432.462.54 2.522.222.312.412.355.0%-3.7%-1.6%14.3%-14.5%5.6%10.1%29.5%67.8%33.1%21.5%-8.4%-5.9%-5.0%-6.8%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00单季度营业总收入 单季度营收增长率（%）0.180.120.090.000.070.140.180.220.340.290.230.050.120.180.100.0%-37.6%-48.2%-100.9%-61.3%13.1%110.9%12697.4%380.5%111.3%26.8%-78.7%-63.5%-39.2%-55.1%-2000%0%2000%4000%6000%8000%10000%12000%14000%0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.40单季度归属净利润 单季度归属利润增长率(%)23.0%22.9%20.7%19.8%19.7%22.6%24.5%19.6%24.7%22.5%25.2%18.9%20.8%21.5%9.3%10.5%6.7%4.6%-0.1%4.8%7.2%8.8%8.9%13.6%11.4%9.2%2.1%5.3%7.3%4.4%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%单季度毛利率(%)单季度净利率(%)-24-3 2022 23Q1 4 23 22 23 1 2 23 0 1 3.1 603667.SH 2022 1.651.90 33.59%53.83%1.051.30 22.41%51.56%22Q4 0.230.48 247.9%625.2%-0.120.13 21Q4-0.15 40%41%4.415.144.34 4.283.714.084.445.305.526.445.706.588.828.417.8949.0%48.9%26.5%10.1%-15.9%-20.6%2.4%23.9%48.8%57.7%28.2%24.0%59.8%30.7%38.4%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.00单季度营业总收入 单季度营收增长率（%）0.250.360.250.170.110.190.180.140.330.500.330.070.400.520.5010.2%4.2%-9.5%-5.7%-56.5%-48.8%-25.5%-14.3%210.2%170.3%82.4%-54.2%21.1%3.1%49.5%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.60单季度归属净利润 单季度归属利润增长率(%)-25-42%3.2 300718.SZ 1995 2017 50%30 2022 11 30 1 1 6MW 22 2022 8.02 10.13%1.31 7.86%2.92 31.85%27.84%1.12 16.17%0.74 2.72 19.16%0.86%0.53 79.36%11.47%-8.42 49.68%151.87%30.39%3.80 2.14 18.88%5.69 1.07 20.3%19.2%23.1%26.8%18.7%20.3%19.8%21.3%19.0%21.6%20.6%18.4%17.2%17.4%17.5%5.8%7.4%6.6%3.0%2.7%4.5%4.4%2.9%6.3%8.3%6.1%1.2%4.5%6.5%6.8%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%单季度毛利率(%)单季度净利率(%)-26-43%44%45%3.3 300817.SZ,1.601.471.391.541.311.471.652.122.222.782.282.572.602.692.72-0.7%-18.2%-13.1%-4.3%-18.4%-0.5%19.0%37.8%69.6%89.4%37.9%21.1%17.4%-3.1%19.2%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00单季度营业总收入 单季度营收增长率（%）0.290.280.310.400.270.320.43 0.430.410.500.290.340.300.470.535.1%-31.9%-12.0%-7.9%-8.7%14.0%39.2%9.8%54.4%56.5%-31.6%-21.7%-26.6%-5.9%79.4%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.000.100.200.300.400.500.60单季度归属净利润 单季度归属利润增长率(%)单位：35.4%34.8%37.7%40.0%33.8%40.7%39.6%30.7%30.9%29.4%26.6%24.0%24.7%28.2%30.4%18.5%19.5%22.8%26.3%20.6%22.3%26.1%20.4%18.6%18.6%13.2%12.7%11.6%17.8%18.9%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%单季度毛利率(%)单季度净利率(%)-27-46 SF 47 JF 2022 5.28 22.30%0.47 39.33%2.92 31.85%25.80%3.72 8.81%2.85 1.59 24.92%9.19%0.10 54.97%50.02%-8.42 49.68%151.87%22.37%6.51 5.80 5.59%5.12 5.90 48%49%1.351.311.171.481.211.551.482.002.332.352.122.281.941.751.590.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-10.3%19.1%27.4%35.4%92.5%51.0%43.0%14.2%-16.9%-25.3%-24.9%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.000.501.001.502.002.50单季度营业总收入 单季度营收增长率（%）单位：0.140.180.150.200.130.210.160.250.260.290.220.230.170.200.100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-7.7%16.1%2.4%25.2%96.6%36.2%41.7%-4.9%-34.9%-31.4%-55.0%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.35单季度归属净利润 单季度归属利润增长率(%)-28-50%4 28.8%32.0%30.4%30.5%28.6%29.7%29.8%26.2%28.4%31.2%28.9%28.4%26.5%28.2%22.4%10.5%14.0%13.1%13.3%10.8%13.7%10.5%12.4%11.5%12.7%10.7%10.6%9.0%11.5%5.6%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%单季度毛利率(%)单季度净利率(%)-29-6 12/300 15%300 5%15%300-10%5%300 10%300 5%300-5%5%300 5%80 28 410005 0731-84403360 0731-84403438 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告