20230228_招商证券_金属新材料行业证券研究报告：新能源和人工智能时代的金属软磁粉芯_41页.pdf
|2023 02 28/42%ChatGPT 42%ups 1 2 3 2025 31.2 117 42%ChatGPT CPU GPU FPGA ChatGPT 5G CR4 58%,21EPS 22EPS 23EPS 22PE 23PE PB 90.99 1.09 1.65 2.32 55.1 39.2 8.9 10.15 0.04 0.26 0.51 39.3 19.8 2.5%174 3.5 34637 4.1 30463 4.3%1m 6m 12m 6.5-10.5-4.5 9.3-10.0 5.8 1 2022-12-29 2 2022-12-29 3 2022-12-25 S1090517030002-40-30-20-10010Feb/22 Jun/22 Oct/22 Feb/23(%)金属及材料 沪深300 2 21.49 0.69 0.99 1.26 21.80 17.00 4.78-47.80 1.85 1.19 1.87 40.02 25.52 5.78-85.29 1.00-2.94 46.52 28.98 5.27-30.70 0.96 0.94 1.29 32.74 23.76 3.94-wind XVEVvMrMpMrQoQmPrMtMmN8O9R9PmOmMsQtQlOmMoNfQrRpObRnNvNMYnQnMvPrQsP 3.7 1.1.7 1.2.7 1.3.10.10.11.14 2.1&.14 1 31%.15 2 85%.16 2.2.18 2.3.22 2.4 UPS.23 2.5 42%.24.25&.27.29 5.1.29 1.29 2.32 3.32 4.32 5.2.32 5.3.33.34.34.35.36.37.37 4.38.38 1.7 2.8 3.8 4.8 5.9 6.9 7.9 8 1.10 9 2.10 10.10 12.12 13.12 13.12 14.13 15.14 16.14 17.14 18 2017-2025&GW.15 19 GW.15 20.15 21 2020-2025.16 22.17 23 2020-2025.17 24.18 25.18 26 2017-2022.18 27 2017-2022.18 5 28 2020-2025.19 29 2017-2022.20 30 2021.20 31 2021-2025.21 32 2017-2025&.22 33 2020-2025.24 34.25 35.25 36.25 37.26 38.26 40 2022.27 41&2022.27 42&2022.27 43.28 44.29 45.30 46.30 47.31 48.31 49.32 50.34 51.35 52.35 53.35 54.36 55.36 56.37 57.37 58 PEBand.39 59 PBBand.39 6 1.11 2.16 3.17 4&.19 5.20 6&.22 7 UPS.23 8.24 9.24 10&.28 11.34 12.36 13.36 14.37 15.38 16.38 7 1.1 1 1.2 8 2 19 20 1886 West inshouse 0.4%20 20 20 78Ni-Fe Mumetal 77Ni-5Cu-Fe Perminvar 43Ni-23Co-Fe 50Co-2V-Fe 3 4 Minerals Education Coalition Unisteel 20 30 40 20 30 40 1935 Philips Snoek 9 5 20 50 70 20 50 20 20 70 1988 Co Zr Nb B 6 7 QidaSecurity 20 80 20 20 80 20 80 1984 Allied 10 8 1 9 2 neomagnet 1.3 KHzMHz E U 10 11 EMI DC/85%Fe 9%Si 6%Al PFC 94%Fe 6%Si PFC 17 Fe 81 Ni 2 Mo Q PFC 1 100%85%9%6%6.5%50%50%81%17%2%10100 9 26160 26-90 14160 14550/(mW/cm3)50kHz,100mT 800-1000 200300 300-500 260300 120-200/(mW/cm3)100kHz,100mT 13001800 700-800 8001000 8001100 500650 100Oc 40%99%(9)45%74%67%54%/C 750 500 700 500 460/T 0.51.4 0.5 1.05 1.5 1.5 0.75/(g/cm3)3.37.2 5.1 6.1 6.5 7.6 8 12 1 106 0.03mm 60%13 12 13 13 2 14 14 2.1&15 16 17 15 1 31%2021 175GW 55GW 2022 250GW 2025 518GW 2022-2025 CAGR 30%18 2017-2025&GW CIPA 2022 3 2025 50GW 2022 5 2017 2022 19.4GW 51.1GW 2017 38%2022 59%325KW 500KW 19 GW 20 CIPA CIPA 20-25 10 2025 51GW 102 108 97 139 175 250 345 431 518 53 44 30 48 55 87 111 144 186-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%01002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E全球新增光伏机装机容量 中国光伏机装机容量全球YOY 中国YOY19.4 21.0 12.2 15.5 29.2 51.18%-42%27%88%75%-50%0%50%100%01020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022分布式光伏 YOY38%48%40%33%53%59%62%52%60%67%47%41%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022组串式 集中式 16 2025 7.85 31%200/GW 2025 180/GW 2025 55%2025 7.85 31%2 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 139 175 250 345 431 518 YOY 26%43%38%25%20%33%42%45%49%52%55%GW 16 28 30 38 47 51 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.25 1.30 1.30/GW 200 200 195 190 185 180 1.48 2.44 3.49 4.88 6.50 7.85/3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.75 7.80 11.16 15.12 20.14 24.35 IEA 21 2020-2025 IEA 2 85%1.48 2.44 3.49 4.88 6.50 7.85 64%43%40%33%21%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01234567892020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E全球光伏逆变器领域软磁用量 YOY 17 22 2022 1 6 48+2023 200/GW 2023 50GW 120%2025 146GW 2.92 2022-2025 CAGR 85%3 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 5 10 23 50 88 146 YOY 117%125%120%75%65%/GW 200 200 200 200 200 200 0.09 0.20 0.46 1.01 1.77 2.92/3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 0.30 0.65 1.47 3.13 5.48 9.04 BloembergenNEF 23 2020-2025 BloembergenNEF 0.09 0.20 0.46 1.01 1.77 2.92 117%125%120%75%65%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%011223342020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E储能软磁需求量 YOY 18 2.2 AC/DC DC/DC AC/DC DC/DC PFC 26 2017-2022 27 2017-2022%EV Sales iFinD EV OBC 0.7kg PHEV OBC 3.3kg 1.22kg 2022 1.32 EV 400V 800V DC/DC EV 0.7kg 2.7kg 300%2025 2.82kg 6.60 2022-2025 67%6%50%105%61%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001,0001,2002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022新能源车销量 增长率1.2%2.1%2.4%4.0%7.8%15.1%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022传统汽车销量 新能源车销量 渗透率 24 25 e-motec 19 CAGR 71.0%4&2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 137 352 687 905 1138 1376 YOY 157%95%32%26%21%328 672 1082 1476 1896 2342 YOY 105%61%36%28%24%1.22 1.22 1.22 1.75 2.29 2.82/5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 0.17 0.43 0.84 1.59 2.60 3.88 0.87 2.23 4.36 7.93 13.01 19.40 0.40 0.82 1.32 2.59 4.33 6.60 2.08 4.26 6.87 12.94 21.67 33.02 EV Sales 28 2020-2025 EV Sales 2017+45 2022 521 2017-2022 CAGR 63.2%2022 99%2.65 1 2023 2 1:1 32.20%2021 12.3 1 15.9 1 2022 8 IRA 2023 3 10 0.40 0.82 1.32 2.59 4.33 6.60 105%61%88%67%52%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%012345672020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E全球新能源车软磁需求量 YOY 20 29 2017-2022 30 2021 2025 17 AC/DC AC/DC APFC kw 0.1kg 100kw 300-400kw kw 0.1kg 0.06kg 2kg 18kg 2025 300-400kw 40%10.8kg 2025 3.49 2022-2025 CAGR 191%5 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 17.4 63 129 200 290 YOY 74%262%105%55%45%0.5 1.4 2.6 4.7 8.4 YOY 180%85%80%80%2.4 4.6 7.4 11.0 16.0 YOY 92%60%50%45%20 69 139 216 315 YOY 240%60%50%40%kg/2.0 2.0 4.9 7.9 10.8/5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.0 0.04 0.14 0.69 1.70 3.49 0.21 0.72 3.57 8.83 16.99 BNEF IEA 30.0 51.6 80.7 114.7 179.7 47.7 72.3 87.4 147.0 341.2 3.77 2.61 2.99 3.75 2.65 00.511.522.533.5401002003004005006002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022公共充电桩数量 私人类充电桩数量 车桩增加比未配建充电桩32.20%已配建充电桩67.80%21 31 2021-2025 BNEF IEA 0.04 0.14 0.69 1.70 3.40 240%397%148%100%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%0112233442021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E全球充电桩新增软磁用量 YOY 22 2.3 PFC 2022 22247.3 2025 24452.1 57%80%2025 19561.7 80%2025 24452.1 0.25kg 2025 6.11 2022-2025 CAGR 15.7%32 2017-2025&6&2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 21064.6 21835.7 22247.3 22959.2 23693.9 24452.1 YOY 3.7%1.9%3.2%3.2%3.2%40%49%57%65%72%80%8336.4 10708.0 12631.8 14813.2 17121.2 19561.7 YOY 28%18%17%16%14%10420.5 13385.0 15789.8 18516.5 21401.4 24452.1 kg/0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25/2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.61 3.35 3.95 4.63 5.35 6.11 6.79 8.70 10.26 12.04 13.91 15.89 33%31%32%40%49%57%65%72%80%-10%10%30%50%70%90%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E中国空调产量 中国变频空调产量 变频空调渗透率 23 2.4 UPS PC44 UPS DC-DC PFC UPS Uninterruptible Power Supply UPS UPS UPS 220V UPS UPS UPS UPS 2021 12 2022 2 8 10 CEO(UPS)(UPS)2022 UPS 2.5 10 20%2025 UPS 4.32 7 UPS 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E UPS 2 2.5 3 3.6 4.32 YOY 25%20%20%20%UPS/4 4 4 4 4 UPS 8 10 12 14.4 17.28 Omdia 24 2.5 42%2025 31.20 117 2022-2025 CAGR 42%CAGR 191%85%71%8 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022-2025 CAGR 2.44 3.49 4.88 6.50 7.85 31%0.20 0.46 1.01 1.77 2.92 85%0.82 1.32 2.59 4.33 6.60 71%0.04 0.14 0.69 1.70 3.40 191%3.35 3.95 4.63 5.35 6.11 16%UPS 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.60 4.32 20%8.85 11.85 16.79 23.25 31.20 38%BNEF IEA 9 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022-2025 CAGR 7.80 11.16 15.12 20.14 24.35 30%0.65 1.47 3.13 5.48 9.04 83%4.26 6.87 12.94 21.67 33.02 69%0.21 0.72 3.57 8.83 16.99 187%8.70 10.26 12.04 13.91 15.89 16%UPS 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.40 17.28 20%29.62 40.48 58.79 84.44 116.57 42%BNEF IEA 33 2020-2025 BNEF IEA 3.49 4.88 6.50 7.85 1.01 1.77 2.92 1.32 2.59 4.33 6.60 0.69 1.70 3.40 3.95 4.63 5.35 6.11 2.50 3.00 3.60 4.32 051015202530352020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E光伏 储能 新能源汽车 充电桩 变频空调 UPS 25 AI 5G GPU FPGA 34 35 36 26 37 38 27&Magnetics Changsung Corp.CR4 58%24%17%17%40 2022&70%44%23%21%22%41&2022 42&2022 2025 25 铂科新材24%东睦股份17%美磁、昌兴17%其他42%铂科新材44%东睦股份23%其他33%铂科新材21%东睦股份22%其他57%28 43 10&33000 37000 70000 2025 7 46000 60000 100000 2023 6.6 10 5000 5000 10000 1 4000 6000 10000 1 4600 5050 9650 2024 9650-20000 20000 2025 2 铂科新材31.16%东睦股份44.51%横店东磁6.68%龙磁科技4.45%云路股份4.30%屹通新材8.90%29 5.1 44 1 25-30 m 1 1 2 3 4 30 45 46 31 47 D5020 m 2 48 3 32 2-3 49 4,5.2 10-20 33 5.3 34 FA1005 50 3.3 2025 7 2 2023 2025 7 11/3.3 2025 7.0 1 5kHz2MHz 21 22 NPC NPV 35%35 51 52 53 P&S SMC MIM 2022 462%-539%SMC 2022 3 7 SMC SMC 2022 KPH-HP KH-HP KSF-HP 3.6 10 2022 6 6 P&S MIM P&S 2022 MIM 2022 40%41%43%39%34%35%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1合金软磁粉芯 合金软磁粉 电感元件 毛利率-6%46%34%37%48%-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.605,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1合金软磁粉芯销量 YOY 36 12/3.6 10 6/54 55 1980 1999 3 2006 8 002056+DMR47 DMR95 DMR24 ND5H DN120L DF 13 IT 3.5 4 5000 1.5 2022 1 13/0.5 5000 1.0 35%31%24%23%22%21%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1粉 末 冶 金制品 消 费 电 子产品 软磁材料 总毛利率15%16%45%69%67%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1软磁材料销量 YOY 37 56 57 1998 2020 5 300835 7 5 2020 2023 4000 6000 14/0.4 1.0 2015 12 2021 11 688190 50Hz 100MHz EMI 2022 2022H1 6400 700 3900 4600 2024 9650 0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1太 阳 能 电池 片 磁性材料 新 能 源 电池 振动器件0246810121416182017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022永磁铁氧体 软磁铁氧体 塑磁 38 15/4600 2024 9650 2000 7 2021 1 21 300930 2022 6 2 36 2025 156 5000 16/2025 2.0 2 1 2 3 4 39 PE-PB Band 58 PEBand 59 PBBand 1 2022-12-29 2 2022-12-29 3 2022-12-25 10 x15x20 x25x35x05001000150020002500300035004000Mar/21 Sep/21 Mar/22 Sep/221.5x2.3x3.0 x3.8x4.5x050010001500200025003000Mar/21 Sep/21 Mar/22 Sep/22 40 10 wind 11 2017 2021 CPA 2021 6-12 A 300 500 20%5-20%5%5%前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
