20230217_海通证券_石油化工行业证券研究报告：风电材料前景广阔大有可为_26页.pdf
Table_MainInfo/2023 02 17 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-22.66%-17.23%-11.81%-6.38%-0.95%4.48%2022/2 2022/5 2022/8 2022/11 Table_ReportInfo&25 2023.02.15 2023 1 2023.02.08 2023.02.14 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(021)23219404 Email:S0850511010010:Tel:(021)23154143 Email:S0850517070005:Tel:(021)23154505 Email:S0850519080001:Tel:(0755)82764281 Email:S0850515040001:Tel:(021)23219635 Email:S0850122070051 Table_Summary PVC PET 2021-2025 47GW 85GW 75%33%25%21%2021 19.90 2025 36.13 6 2019 CR6 67.05%2010-2021 11.98 46.83 2025 85 60%PVC PET PVC PET 38%31%25%90%PVC PET PET PVC Table_StockInfo EPS 2021 2022E 2023E 688065 1.04 1.24 1.72 600176 1.51 1.61 1.24 002080 2.01 2.21 2.12 301090 0.33 0.55 0.67 300777 0.46 1.04 1.63 资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究 2 1.6 1.1.6 1.2.6 2.7 2.1“”.7 2.2.8 2.3 A.10 2.4.10 3.11 3.1.11 3.2.11 3.3.13 4.PVC PET.14 4.1.14 4.2.15 4.3 PVC.16 4.4 PET.17 5.18 5.1.18 5.2.18 5.3.19 5.4.20 5.5 PET.20 6.21 1ZEVwPqNsRrQrPoNtOoRrQaQ9RbRtRpPmOnOlOnNtRiNrQsNaQmNnQwMmPtOMYsPpN 3 1 GW.6 2 GW.6 3.7 4.7 5.7 6.8 7.8 8 2022.9 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.9 13.10 14.11 15.12 16.12 17.12 18 2020.12 19 2021.12 20.13 21.13 22.13 23.14 24.14 25.14 26.15 27 Balsawood.16 28.16 29 PVC.17 30 PVC.17 4 31 PVC.17 32 PET.18 33 PET.18 34.18 35.18 36.19 37.19 38.19 39.19 40.20 41.20 42.21 43.21 5 1.8 2.11 3.15 6 1.1.1 2010-2021 2025 85GW 1 GW 12 17 15 15 20 34 17 17 20 25 73 47 56 65 75 85 0102030405060708090 Wind CWEA 2 GW 39 40 45 35 51 63 55 53 50 60 95 92 101 102 106 119 020406080100120140 Wind GWEC 1.2 2021 2021 151 2020 15 2021 150 2020 12%66.1%75%33%25%21%7 3 75.0%2.1%7.2%13.2%2.5%4 21%33%25%8%6%7%2.2.1 5 66 56 1 2 3 4 5 66 6 56 66 56 8 1 66 56 2021 2.2 2019-2021 230 2022 283 140-160 6 222.70 222.70 232.70 283.30 0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503002019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 7 154.64 143.83 140.99 140.29-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1301351401451501551602019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 42 9 10 157.8 55.7%9 8 2022 24.820 2018171615.514.5120510152025 2021-2025 1GW 4250 2010 2021 5.09 19.90 CAGR 13.20%CWEA 2025 2025 36.13 2021 11-2022 11 22470.86/2021 44.72 CWEA 2025 81.18 9 0102030405060 Wind 10 020406080100120 Wind 2019 18.02%14.45%13.40%9.79%7.19%4.20%CR6 67.05%11 0%10%20%30%2016 2017 2018 2019 12 0%5%10%15%20%25%2016 2017 2018 2019 10 2.3 A A A 2022 A 0.69 43.90%0.56 34.56%13 2019-2021 50-75 2022 1-11 68.93 0.17 6.9 62.2 A A A 2020 A 156.3 59.5 1.3 72.9%A 2.4 66 66 2021 2020 100 56 66 56 66 66 56 2021 11 3.3.1 14 1 20%-25%2 2 2.5-2.7g/cm3 2000MPa 2.7 x 10-6/1.6-2.0g/cm3 3000MPa-0.5 x 10-6/2021 2021 2021 2021 3.2 50%12 15 2021 2021 624 471.3 2012 2021 288 624 CAGR 8.97%187 471.3 CAGR 10.82%16 288 285308323362408468527541624-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%01002003004005006007002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy 17 187 189204221250283316340423.4471.30%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002503003504004505002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy 2021 60%33%18 2020 23%13%11%10%7%4%4%28%OC NEG JM 19 2021 33%15%13%7%4%28%13 2021 GW 1 2010 2021 11.98 46.83 6.24 24.39 CAGR 13.20%CWEA 2025 2025 85 44.27 20 020406080100120140 Wind 21 010203040506070 Wind 3.3 22 2021 2021 50%49%14 23 26%13%10%8%7%6%4%HexcelCytec AKSA 24 1%31%9%1%58%SGL Hexcel 2021 2021 3.3 2021-2025 2025 8.06 2021-2025 CAGR=25%25 2021 4.PVC PET 4.1 15 26 Balsawood PVC PET 1 Balsawood 90%135176kg/m3 47 2 PVC DIAB 3A Maricell PVC PVC PVC PVC PET HPE PVC 3 PET PVC PET PET PVC PVC PVC PET Balsawood 38%PVC 31%PET 25%3 Balsawood 135-176kg/m3 38%PET 100-110kg/m3 31%PVC 60-100kg/m3 25%2021 PET 4.2 Balsawood 90%Balsawood 90 Balsawood 5-7 90 Balsawood 16 Balsawood 3-4 0.5MW MW 6 38%2010 2.73 8.84 2021 10.68 21.08 27 Balsawood 051015202530 Balsawood Balsawood Wind 4.3 PVC PVC PVC,PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC PVC 2020 PVC 79%PVC 21%PVC 28 2021 PVC 2018-2022 PVC 2500 2000 1900 80%17 29 PVC 2485 2487 2526 2546 2777 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%2300240025002600270028002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 PVC yoy 30 PVC 1886 1946 2022 2217 1991-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%17001800190020002100220023002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 PVC yoy 31 PVC 1900 1962 2064 2082 1837-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%1700175018001850190019502000205021002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 PVC yoy 4.4 PET PET PTA MEG PET PTA MEG PET PET PET PET PET 2019 PET 5876 5134 PET 3A Armacell Gurit PET 80%90%18 32 PET 3979 4278 4708 4796 4855 5069 5876 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%010002000300040005000600070002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PET yoy 33 PET 4127 4009 3751 3573 4320 4788 5134-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%01000200030004000500060002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PET yoy PET PET PET 2018 2020-2021 PET 5.5.1 2021 21.97 46.77%2021 6.08 32.82%34-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 35-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%012345672017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 5.2 19 2021 197.07 68.92%2021 60.28 149.51%PCB 2021 36 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 37-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0102030405060702017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 5.3 2021 202.95 33.73 7.58%65.40%38 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0501001502002502017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 39 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%05101520253035402017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 20 80 23 5.4 2021 4.12 2020 5.72%156.06 2020 34.35%2.01 40 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%00.511.522.533.544.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 41-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%00.511.522.52017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 5.5 PET 2017 124.81 2021 125.85 CAGR 0.21%2017 1.95 2021 4.82 CAGR 25.39%21 42-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%1101151201251301351401451502017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind 43-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%012345672017 2018 2019 2020 2021()yoy Wind PET 2018 PET 2021 PET PET CR-HP100 CR-HP150 DNV 6.22 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,A,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%23 Table_PeopleInfo(021)23219403(021)23219404(021)23219658(021)23219747(0755)82780398(021)23219820(021)23219394(021)23154149(021)23219674(021)23154658(021)23219732(021)23219395(021)23219984(021)23219883(021)23212230(021)23154387(021)23212231(021)23154170 021-23219745(021)23219419(021)23219004(021)23219326(021)23219686(021)23219370(021)23219445(021)23154167(021)23219433(021)23154168(021)23219068(021)23219645(021)23219819(021)23219773 珮(021)23154121 喆(021)23154142(021)23154116 021-23219635(021)23212041(021)23154124 021-23154484(021)23219658(021)23154132(021)23219733 021-23154147(021)23219400(021)23154504(021)23219812(021)23214131(021)23219420(021)23154122 02123154123(021)23219434(021)23219387(021)23219946(021)23219953 02163411361(021)23219404(021)23154143(021)23154505(021)23219635(0755)82780398(021)23219808(010)68067998(021)23154120(010)56760096 86 10 56760096(021)23219671(010)68067998(021)23219164(021)23154017 021-23219807(021)23154145(021)23154398(021)23154113(021)23154141(021)23154125(021)23219415(021)23219399 021-23154126(010)58067907(021)23219104(021)23154120(021)23219774(021)23212208(021)23154392(021)23154394 02123219406(021)23219383(021)23219747(021)23219436(021)23154399 24(021)23154652 翀(021)23154139 02123219748(021)23154401(021)23219963(010)58067998(021)23219760(021)23212208(021)23219692(021)23219171(021)23154113(021)23154184(021)23219389(0755)82764281(021)23214397(021)23219431(021)23219392(021)23219392(021)23154174(021)23154174(021)23154137(0755)23617756(010)50949926 010-56760095(021)23154128(021)23219634(010)50949926 010-56760090(010)56760090(021)23154171(021)23219382(021)23219442(010)56760091(021)23219407(021)23154510(021)23219405(021)23212081(021)23154122(021)23154114 玥(021)23219814(021)23154119(021)23154659(021)23219391 劼 18515295560 18901961523 13718567611(010)58067998(021)23219402(021)23154172(021)23154171(021)23154019 晅 021-2321-4129(021)23154483(021)23154395(021)23219356(021)23154134(021)23219399(755)82900465(021)23219583 祎(021)23219768(021)23219244(021)23154382(021)23214390(021)23154146 25(0755)23607963(0755)82775962(0755)83253022(0755)83255933(0755)82775282(0755)23617160 0755-25597716(021)23219385(021)23219397(021)23219384(021)23219410(021)23154192 23214650 祎(021)23212268(021)23219373 祎(021)23219281(010)58067988 010-5806 7936(010)58067977(010)58067931 垚(010)58067851 689 9 021 23219000 021 23219392 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
