20231117_国元证券_技术硬件与设备行业卫星系列报告之低轨卫星通信_38页.pdf
1/38 Table_Main|2023 11 17 Table_Title Table_Summary G W”+G60 2 GW 12992 G60 12000 1296 ITU 12992 ITU 2022 188 5 6 SpaceX 5376 L S C Ku Ka ITU 10%50%5G-Advanced 6G Starlink LTE 2024 001 FR Table_Invest|Table_PicQuote Wind Table_DocReport Table_Author S0020521060001 021-51097188 Table_Forecast EPS PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E 835640 15.37 2,885.38 0.76 0.85 1.07 20.20 18.01 14.31 002465 13.17 32,685.75 0.29 0.30 0.38 48.92 44.53 34.87 688270 66.40 10,152.16 0.99 0.76 1.07 94.24 87.44 61.77 601728 5.06 437,102.89 0.30 0.33 0.36 16.78 15.18 13.93 Wind 2023 11 17-10%-2%5%12%20%11/17 2/16 5/18 8/17 11/16 300 2/38 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.2.1.7 1.2.2.9 1.2.3.12 1.2.4.13 1.2.5.15 2.15.15 6G.18“”.20 3.22 3.1.22 3.2“+5G”.25 3.3.28 3.4.32 3.5.36 4.37 1.5 2.5 3.6 4 2022.6 5.7 6.7 7.7 8 2022.7 9.8 10.8 11.8 12.8 13.9 YWAZyRrMoNpOoQsRrMtMnM7NbP8OoMpPmOnOfQoPpOkPsQmM8OrQsONZoMnPxNqRoN 3/38 14.9 15.10 16.10 17.10 18 9.10 19.11 20 9.11 21.11 22 41.11 23.12 24.12 25.12 26.12 27.13 28.13 29.13 30.13 31 2022.14 32 5G 2023 Q2.14 33.16 34.18 35.19 36 Starlink.19 37 5G R17 NTN.19 38 IMT-2030.19 39 Mate60 Pro.20 40 iPhone 14.20 41 SpaceX.21 42 5G S9.21 43 001 FR.21 44.21 45.23 46.23 47.23 48.24 49.24 50.25 51.25 52.25 53.27 54.27 55.28 4/38 56.29 57.29 58.30 59.30 60.33 61.33 62.33 63 DOU.34 64.34 65 2022.34 66.34 67.35 68.35 69.36 70.37 1.5 2.6 3.14 4.16 5.16 6 Starlink.17 7.18 8.20 9.22 10.28 11.31 12.35 13.35 5/38 1 1.1,1 2 LEO MEO GEO SSO IGSO GEO IGSO 3.6 GEO 0 IGSO 0 300 2000 1 VLEO()350 LEO 300-2000 MEO 2000-35786 GEO 35786 SSO 6000 IGSO 35786 36 6/38 Very Low Earth Orbit VLEO 350 LEO GEO 2/ms LEO 3 15 30 MEO 27 43 90 LEO GEO GEO 120 140 280 UCS 2022 6693 4823 72.06%1167 17.44%2.32%3 4 2022 UCS 1.2 SIA 2022 2811 2018-2022 CAGR 0.33%SIA 2022 7/38 5 6 SIA SIA SIA 2022 7316 2018 2103 CAGR 36.58%2022 63%2018 35 7 8 2022 SIA SIA 1.2.1 SIA 2018 195 2022 158 2018 314 2022 2325 CAGR 65%LEO GEO/M2M-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%0500100015002000250030002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0100020003000400050006000700080002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy/8/38 9 10 SIA SIA 60%11 12 Beamforming-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy(0%50%100%150%200%250%050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 50%70%80%50%30%20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%40%22%12%10%9%7%9/38 13 Kuiper Telesat Starlink 14 SCDN 1.2.2 2021 2022 22.81%70 LEO 2017-2022 91 186 CAGR 15.37%10/38 15 16 SIA 2022 50%9 17 18 9 5%90%9 2.6%4%SpaceX CEO COO Starlink 50 1500 2023 11 3 SpaceX CEO Elon Musk X SpaceX Starlink-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy(2934274451871839343955642020251725222421141415130204060801001201401601802002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 01020304050602019 2020 2021 2022 4500 500 3000 1000 500 40 460 11/38 19 20 9 2018-2022 109/186/38 62 2023 6 15 06A 41 41 4 41 41 7 21 22 41 010002000300040005000600070001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0204060801001201401601802002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 12/38 1.2.3 GNSS 70%2018-2022 1252 1450 CAGR 4%23 24 SIA SIA P60 PRO 25 26 RF RF HPA LNA 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%1100115012001250130013501400145015002018 2019 2020 2021 2022(yoy(0200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 13/38 27 28 1.2.4 SIA 60%29 30 SIA SIA 10/)9/5/0.15/-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%100010501100115012001250130013502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/14/38 0.1/31 2022 32 5G 2023 Q2 5G 2023Q2 050100150200250300350 3 15/38 1.2.5 2022 2.5 Space Logistics Astroscale Clear Space GEO 15 15 2 5 10 Intelsat NSR 10 143 2 6 L S C Ku Ka Ka 20GHz 12.2dB 30GHz 23dB Ka 16/38 4 33 L 1-2GHz S 2-4GHz C 4-8GHz X 8-12GHz Ku 12-18GHz Ka 27-40GHz Q/V 36-56GHz Ku ITU 10%50%100%2022 704 2020 ITU 12992 GW-A59Q GW-2 G60 1296 12000 GW+G60 1.3 ITU 2022 188 7 5 5 Iridium Iridium 75 6 780km L Orbcomm Orbcomm 36 Globalstar Globalstar 48 1414km L/S 36 starlink SpaceX 1584 2825 7518 550km Ku/Ka/v 5011 Boeing 2956 1200km V Kuiper 3236 590km/610km/630km Ka 2 oneweb oneweb 648 1200km Ku/Ka 2023 3 17/38 618 KLEO Connect KLEO 300 1100km Ka Yaliny Yaliny 135 Sfera 600/Telesat Lightspeed telesat 120 Ka Kepler 140 SpaceNet Astrome Samsung 4600 1496km 12992 508km-1145km 80 54 300 1000km 156 1000km 120 1 2 138 500km-700km 108 G60 1296 12000 Galaxy Q/V 8InSAR 4 38 800km 21 28 1998 Iridium 66 50 8 9000 2017 2 IridiumNEXT 66 30 60%SpaceX Starlink Starlink 100/5000/9 60/6 Starlink/kg 1998 5139 7 670 2017 3750 10 9 860 2019 OneWeb 50-100/36 125 18/38 2019 StarLink 50-100/60 9 227 6G 99%30%34 7 5G 4G 270ms 25-35ms 1ms 10ms 1G 1G 1-2G 300M 0 550km 64 300m 1-3km AR/VR 2008 5 13 6 12 164 74 72 2022 SpaceX Starlink 2023 SpaceX Starlink 29%20%71%5%19/38 35 36 Starlink 5G-Advanced 6G 3rd Generation Partnership Project 3GPP 5G New Radio Non-Terrestrial Network NR-NTN Internet of Things Non-Terrestrial Network IoT-NTN Work Item WI R17 R17 R19 NR R20 6G NTN Terrestrial Network TN NTN 5G 5G-Advanced NTN IMT-2030 6G 37 5G R17 NTN 38 IMT-2030 20/38 2023 8 2023 10 2023 2 2022 6 2021 12 2021 11 2022 9 mate50 2023 9 P60 iPhone 14 iPhone 14 Pro iPhone 15 iPhone 15 Pro 39 Mate60 Pro 40 iPhone 14 21/38 10 12 Starlink LTE 2024 2025 11 10 5G S9 2024 OPPO VIVO 41 SpaceX 42 5G S9 001 FR 2023 001 FR 2022 9 009 43 001 FR 44 22/38 3 3.1 IEC IEC RFS 9/FFB FFB PTFE 83%FFG FFG 77%CAGR 19.8%61.1%2018-2022 3.93 8.08 0.21 1.43 CAGR 19.80%61.11%23/38 2018-2022 2019 45 46 Wind Wind Bishop&Associates2021 23.5%47 5G Bishop&Associates 2011 489 2021 780 4.78%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%200%0123456789 yoy yoy 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 24/38 Bishop&Associates 2000-2010 19.34%2011-2021 8.27%4.78%2021 250 32%2020 2023 300 48 49 Bishop&Associates Bishop&Associates 5G 2022 5G 6G 2022 2023 A-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E yoy-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E yoy 25/38 50 51 3.2+5G“”+5G“D”52 05102019 2020 2021 2022 RFS 0500100015002000250030002021 2022 26/38 2023 2018-2022 40.70 56.16 4.30 6.68 CAGR 8.38%11.64%-27/38 53 54 Wind Wind Ku 2023 3 7+5G 8 5 5.545 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0102030405060 yoy yoy 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 28/38 55 2023 3.3 ADC/DAC 10 ADC/DAC SDR/ADC/DAC 29/38 FPGA DSP CPU ADC/DAC GaAs/GaN/CMOST/R 3D ADC/DAC 2023 2018-2022 0.04 2.43-0.49 1.08 CAGR 179.17%56 57 Wind Wind 1 5G 5G QYR Electronics Research Center 2011 2020 13.83%2020 202.16 2 ADC/DAC-500%0%500%1000%1500%2000%-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0 yoy yoy 0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ADC/DAC 30/38 Databeans 2020 34 2019 ADC/DAC 3 2018 250 2026 565 2018-2026 10.69%2015 520 2020 781 2015-2020 8.47%4 3D heterogeneous integration Through Silicon Via,TSV 58 59 Global Radio Frequency Front-end Module Market Research Report 2019 ADC/DAC/16 0%5%10%15%20%25%0501001502002503003502018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E yoy 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%01002003004005006007008009002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 yoy 31/38 14.4mm*14.4mm*3.2mm 2.5g 90%11 ADI GM1302 HMC8500(MHz)302500 102800(dBm)40 40 35%35dBm 20%35dBm(dB)14 10 IMD3(dBc)-2835dBm-3035dBm(mm)6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 ADC/DAC TI CX8842 AFE7422-8T8R 2T2R ADC/bit/GSPS 14/4 14/3 ADC/MHz 106000 106000 ADC SFDR 70dBFS2.3G 0.8Vpp-2dBFS 73dBc2.6G-3dBFS ADC ADC NSD-151dBFS/Hz 0.8Vpp 4GSPS-151dBFS/Hz ADC W+ADC 1.5 1.9 DAC/bit/GSPS 14/12 14/9 DAC/MHz 106000 106000 DAC SFDR 68dBc12GSPS 1.8GHz DAC DAC NSD-165dBm/Hz700MHz DAC W+DAC 1.2 1.8 1 ADI MT0745RH LTM4644-V 4-7 3-18 TI V 0.6-3.3 A 20A 4 5A 20A 4 5A TI 32/38 96%95%100krad Si 75MeV cm2/mg 2 M49307RH ZDSPC28M-5-V 100 40 A 15 1.55 ms 0.3 25 ms 0.5 0.52 s 50 100 100krad Si 75MeV cm2/mg A CSIP-Ka-16-03 A-dB 33 1 28 1 dB 2.1 2.4 mA 130 3 185 g 1.9 0.2 2.0 0.2 2023 3.4 ICT 33/38 60 2018-2022 3749.29 4749.67 CAGR 6.09%204.32 275.93 CAGR 7.80%WiFi AI WiFi 61 62 Wind Wind DOU-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000 yoy yoy 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 34/38 2017-2022 246 GB 2618 GB 1.73GB/15.2GB/CAGR 60.5%54.4%63 DOU 64 2022 5.9 5386 100Mbps 5.54 5513 93.9%0.8 1000Mbps 9175 5716 15.6%9.1 65 2022 66 IDC 5G+5G 2019 GDP 36.2%5G 2019 02468101214160500100015002000250030002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GB GB/0200400600800100012002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 4G 5G 1000M 100M 1000M 20M 100M 20M 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%01000200030004000500060002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E2021E2022E2023E yoy 35/38 1334 689 57.6%645 22.8%2019-2020 IDC IDC 2014 372.2 2019 1562.5 33%5G 67 68 IDC IDC 12 13 1000/750/5/1.6/0.4/10/200 300 500 50 100 200 5/9/20/50/9/IT 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0102030405060702020 2025E GDP 36/38 3.5 UHF 38 2023 17 69 37/38 70 4