20221114_开源证券_汽车行业2023年度投资策略：从集成化、国产替代、渗透率三大维度甄选汽车板块投资机会_66页.pdf
2023 S0790521040001 S0790522070005 2022 11 14 1.2022 1-9 682.3+19.0%45.9%2021 4.7pcts 9 47.0%2022 1-9 326.3+127.5%84.2%82.0+241.9%89.8%2.3.4.1 23目 录CONTENTS 1.1 2022 10 30%101.9106.2117.5329.0500.3180.1%112.4%0%50%100%150%200%01002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-10 YOY67.683.9%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%020406080 YOY30.9%23.2%7.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-10 4.4%5.0%5.9%15.6%26.5%12.9%20.5%2.7%6.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-10 1 2022 1-10+112.4%3 2022 10+83.9%2 2022 1-10 2021+10.9pcts 4 2022 10 30%1.2 5 2022 1-9 2021+4.7pcts 6 2022 1-9 2021+4.4pcts95.7%88.8%74.6%79.8%84.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9 8 2022 1-9 BEV 2021+2.2pcts 9 2022 1-9 PHEV 2021+11.5pcts98.4%96.6%78.6%80.2%82.4%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9 87.5%57.8%56.5%78.3%89.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9 7 2022 1-9 2021+19.1pcts28.7%2.2%15.1%47.8%3.6%19.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2021 2022M1-941.0%37.9%35.8%41.2%45.9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9 1.3 10 2022 1-9 2021 11 12 13 14 3.4%7.0%4.9%3.9%5.7%5.7%2.1%2.6%6.2%5.8%0%2%4%6%8%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9 14.2%13.8%12.1%10.2%7.7%8.2%7.2%6.4%0%5%10%15%20%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9+Marklines 17.9%27.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9 0%1%2%3%4%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9 14.2%11.1%13.8%9.3%0%5%10%15%20%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022M1-9 Marklines Marklines Marklines Marklines 1.4.1 DM-i E 3.0 15 2022 10 32.2%16 Marklines e 3.0 10 DM-i DM-p 1 2 EHS 3 07 8 10.311.432.2%0%20%40%01020302021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-10 Model 3 21-28 27.7 34.99 mm 4800*1875*1460 4694*1850*1443(mm)2920 2875(km)550 700 650 556 675(h)0.5 1(kW)150 230 390 194 357 N M 310 360 670 340 659 s 7.9 5.7 3.8 6.1 3.3 kWh 61.44 82.56 82.56 60 78.4 L2 L2 L3 Model3 144TOPS 1 0246 1.4.2 SEA 18 2022 10 4.6%19 001 2022 10 Marklines 1 2 DHT SEA 475kW 600kW 3s CTP NEDC 700 2.70.44.6%0%2%4%6%8%0123452021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-09 0.00.51.01.52.0 001 PHEV+HEV 001 Model 3 P7 kW 200/400 194/357 163-380 196/316 N m 384/768 340/659 330-700 390/655 s 3.8/6.9 3.3/6.1 3.9/7.9 4.3/6.7CLTC km 536-732 556/675506 NEDC-715 CLTC 480-706 NEDC mm 4,970 4,694 4,995 4,880 mm 1,999 1,850 1,910 1,896 mm 1,548/1,560 1,443 1,495 1,450 mm 3,005 2,875 2,920 2,998 2 001 6.9%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-09 17 2022 10 6.9%1.4.3 EPA1 CHN Marklines 21 2022 9 4.2%3 SL03 EPA1 SL03 15-20 20-30 CHN 425kW 650Nm 3.98s 3+400TOPS CTP 700km+SL03 Model 3 16.89 18.39-21.5920.98-28.6827.70-34.99 km 1200 515/705550-700 556/675 HUD AR-HUD W-HUD 11 ES6 Model Y kW 425 320/400 194-357 km 555/680 CLTC 455-610 NEDC 545-660 CLTC 13 9 8 3 0 0 TOPS 400 5 144 4 11 0.61.11.14.2%0%2%4%6%01234SL03 Lumin 5.5%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-09CS UNI 20 2022 9 5.5%Marklines 1.4.4 Marklines 22 2.8%0%1%2%3%4%02468 4.5%0%2%4%6%01234 23 2022 00.511.52021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-09AION S AION Y AION V AION LX Marklines Marklines 24 AION S AION Y*(mm)(mm)(kW h)NEDC(km)(N m)Aion S 4768*1880*1530 2750 58.8 460 225 13.98-17.98 0.78Aion S PLUS 4810*1880*1515 2750 58.8 51035016.38 0.7 69.9 602 19.16 0.75 PLUS EV 4765*1837*1515 2718 57 500 180 14.88 0.5 71.7 600 280 17.58 0.5 A 4752*1804*1503 2700 53 43031013.98 0.5 70 600 20.78 0.63 P5 4808*1840*1520 2768 55.9 46031017.79 0.5 71.4 600 24.99 0.63 5 AION S PLUS C 1.5 27 2022Q1-3 28 2022Q1-3 25 2020Q1-2022Q3 26 2020Q1-2022Q3 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000-20020406080100 0%10%20%30%-15%-5%5%15%25%1 23目 录CONTENTS 2.1 1.1 2 3 2.CD 3.2.1.1 6000T Model Y Model Y 70 1-2 700-800 50 1-2 3-5 40%29 Model Y Model Y 70 1-2 2.1.2+一体压铸 相较传 统车身 加 工工艺为 整车厂 带来成 本 的节约与 效率的 提升：生 产 线成本：工厂 占地面 积减少30%。时 间 成本：一体压 铸后底 板的加 工时间 约80-90 秒，一体 压铸将 大幅提 高生产 效率。人 力 成本：一个焊 装工厂 约需要200-300名生产线 工人，而采 用 一体 压 铸技 术 后，每 台设备 约只需 要2-3 人操作，人力成 本也大 幅降低。30 31 2.1.3 6 B B 2021 5 2 6000T 7 2021 8 2 9000T 2022 2 7000T 9 2021 9 21 6 7200T 10 4500T 1 6000T 1 8000T 7 2022 1 2 12000T 8 2 6100T 2 8400T 35 1000T 1300T-4500T 6600T 8800T 22 2-2.1.4 32 A/B CD C 柱D 柱注：红框 表示的 为公司 能够生 产的 车身结构 件产品2.2 1 2 1 2 3 4 3 2.2.1 2020 Model Y PTC 2021 4 TMS 12 40%33 Model Y 34 TMS2.0 2.2.2 2021 2022H1 35 36 2022H1 20%2.3 1.1 2 3 2.&2022 9 NE 2022 9 37.97 81.7%63.4%2020 37%26pcts 3.2022 CR4 50%2022 4.2.3.1 1 2 3 2500 7500 37 2.3.2&NE 2022 9 NE 2022 9 37.97 81.7%63.4%2020 37%26pcts 38 2020 37%39 2022 9&63%37%63%63%41%&NE 2.3.3 NE NE 2022 CR4 50%40 2022H1 41 2022H1 NE,25.90%,10.30%,9.30%,5.88%,5.70%,5.22%,4.27%,3.70%,3.50%,26.2%,23.3%,17.4%,9.3%,8.3%,7.2%,4.7%,4.5%,3.7%,3.4%,2.3%,2.2%,9.6%2.3.4 OBC NE OBC NE 2022 40 20 2021 42 2022H1 OBC 43 2022H1 OBC CR3 NE 52.1412221.219.813.711.17.34.10102030405060,25%,19.70%,10.60%,10.20%,9.50%,6.60%,5.30%-,3.50%,2%,8%2.3.5 OBC DC-DC IGBT/SiC 20%44 2.3.5 A00 A B MPV SUV 7 B MPV SUV P7/G9 2021 2022 E.5/M7 2020 2021/2022 E.5/M7 2020 2022 2019 2020 X7 2018 2020 30X 2019 2019 2019 2020 30X 2019 2019 X811 2020 2020 E40X 2020 2020 E40X 2020 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022A E50A 2020 2021 IC5 2019 2020 IC5 2019 2020 2021 2022A0 IEV6 2017 2019 2021 2022 IEV6E 2016 2017 E10X 2020 2021A00 MINIEV 2020 2020 2020 2021 A158 2021 2022 MINIEV 2021 2021 E300p-kivi 2021 2021 2020 2021HEV/2021 2022 SiC 2021 2024DC-DC/2021 20222.3.6 8 30 14.1 45 2021 46 2021 2.4 1.&2022 1-9 EHB Two-box One-box 23.45%2021 14.85pcts 2.EHB One-box 2022 1-9 EHB One-box 29.9%2021 9.4pcts One-Box ESC Onebox 3.2020 65%2021 4.2.4.1 GGII 2022 1-9 EHB Two-box One-box 23.45%2021 14.85pcts 8 47 2022 1-9 20%GGII 400-600 EHB 120-150 40 2.60%4.50%8.60%13.70%23.45%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 1-5 2022 1-9 2.4.2 One-box 2022 1-9 EHB One-box 29.9%2021 9.4pcts EHB One-box 48 2021 EHB One-box 20.5%49 2022 1-9 EHB One-box 29.9%20.50%76.60%2.90%onebox twobox 29.9%70.4%onebox twobox 2.4.3&2022 WCBS 47 31 2022 13 8 46 20 26 4 One-box 2022 11 10 SUV IBS onebox One-box 50 WCBS 31119270.05.010.015.020.025.030.0 WCBS 51 Onebox 2.5 1.+M7 2.Tier1 2023 3.4.2.5.1 52 53 2020,24%,24%,16%,13%,8%,15%,30%+,40%,30%+2.5.2 15%15%4%4%54 15%55,25%,15%,13%,4%,4%,40%2.5.3/9 2.5.4 2022Q3 14.11%2.26%56 2022Q3 57 2021 Wind Wind-5%0%5%10%15%20%2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2.5.5 i5 i6 ei5 ei6 ER6 58 59 2.5.6 10 2021 11 2021 11 90/DFL-EM2E 2022.11.06 10.0518/2022.11.03 5.0763 2/2022.6.14 14.87 5-7/2022.5.30 9.14-11.564 5 1 3 2022.5.26 5.16 4 2022-2026 2022.5.24 6.14 5 2022-2027 2022.5.12 7.075 5 2022.11-2027 2021.11.19 6.8-8.1 5 2021.10-2026.10 2021.11.15 19.4-22.7 5 2022-2027 2.6 1./2019 CR3 31%2.3.2.6.1/2019 CR3 31%60 2019 CR3 31.36%61 2020 CR7 54.63%,13.59%,10.24%,7.53%,68.63%,25.50%,6.70%,6.45%,5.37%,5.09%,3.47%,3.05%,44.37%2.6.2 Wind 62 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 2.6.3/9 12 11.6 Tier 0.5 Tier0.5 11 15 15/2011/2006 6 2009 2011 2012 2012 3X 2 2016 2017 2017/2018/2019/2020 2021 Q4 2 2019 2021 5 2.6.4 1996 MEB EQB EV ARCFOX ZOOX 2022H1 29.7%2022H1 29.7%2021 24.5%5.2pcts 63 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.02019 2020 2021 2022H1 64 2022H1 29.7%2.7 1.2.3.2022 2.7.1 2021 17.27 8.0%2022H1 Q3 65 2021 66 Wind-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%1450150015501600165017001750180018502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1800200022002400260028003000:2.7.2 12 IKCO 2.7.3 69%25%23%2022 67 2022 68 2022 7 Wind Wind 1000011000120001300014000150002022-1-42022-1-242022-2-182022-3-102022-3-302022-4-212022-5-162022-6-62022-6-242022-7-142022-8-32022-8-232022-9-132022-10-102022-10-28():/12000125001300013500140002022-1-72022-2-42022-2-252022-3-182022-4-82022-4-292022-5-202022-6-102022-7-12022-7-222022-8-122022-9-22022-9-232022-10-14:(BR9000):/150020002500300035004000CCFI:Wind 69 2022 2.8 1.&+2020/2025/2030 190/250/350kg Drive Aluminum 2015 6.6%2025 26.6%2 3000 70%80%2.2.8.1+70 0%20%40%60%80%100%2026E 2020 2015 71 2020/2025/2030 190/250/350kg 2.8.2 13 2021 30.23 60.03 41.12 32.06 Rivian 114.63 34.92 MQB 157.50 139.19 16.152.8.3 72 NVH+3 2022 2 7200T 15%20%TechCast 14 6 2.8.4+73 2022 2022 14 36.8 2022 9 5 6 2022 9 8 2.8.5 ASP 74 2022 15.7 710 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 YOY 1 PDU/BDU 10 300 300002/8 250 200003 40 10 40004 OBC DCAC/1.5 150 2250 710 56250 15 710 2.9 1.&L9/L8/L7 G9 2025 2021 2.5%15%-20%2.2020/2 2023 3.2.9.1 2021 2 L9/L8/L7 G9 2023 2025 2021 2.5%15%-20%16 001 526/606/712km 28.1-36/009 702/822km 49.9-58.8 H9/+48V 30.98-53.98 45.98 HS7/+48V 27.5846.33 41.58 E-HS9 660/690km58.9877.98 68.98 ES6 420/610km 35.8-52.6 430km ES8 415/580km 46.8-62.6 ET7 500/700km 45.853.6 ES7 485/620km 46.854.8 FREE 860km/505km31.36-36.36 33.36 475/605km 36.99-68.99 43.99 L9 45.98 L8 35.98-39.98 L7 33.98-37.98 G9 570/702km 30.99-46.99 39.99 09+48V 26.5932.09 32.09 09 31.9937.49 37.49 HiPhiX 630km 5780 BJ90 99.8128.8 2.9.2 AMK 2016 AMK 2022 1-10 56.04 2021 17/2020.8.14 1.31 2020.9.8 H97 1.27 2020.11.19 8.31 10 2021.2.2 H56 2.02 6 2021.6.26 2.6 5 2021.7.9 0.58 5 2021.8.13 2.95 4 2021.8.27 0.36 5 2021.10.16 1.7 4 2021.12.24 4.7 5 2022.2.9 1 4 2022.2.25 3.4 5 2022.3.4 2.44 5 2022.3.8 0.52 5 2022.5.11 2.79 5 2022.6.8 4.9 5 2022.6.10 17.18 7 2022.7.15 7.67 7 2022.8.23 1.8 7 2022.10.11 1.34 4 2022.10.25 13 5 81.842.9.3&2012 18 2012 2012-2015 2015 OEM 2016 2017 2018 ECAS 2020 OEM 2021 2022 2.9.3 2022 8 6 12 9 17 2022 10 3 2024 2022 6 2022 75 1 23目 录CONTENTS 3.1 Wind 2022/11/11 Wind 19 PE EPS PEG/2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2024E 002594.SZ 6,821 268.80 58.9 32.2 20.94.56 8.35 12.880.40175.HK 941.56 9.36 17.0 10.6 7.30.55 0.88 1.280.2000625.SZ 1,086 12.44 12.9 12.0 10.00.97 1.04 1.240.5601633.SH 2,137 30.62 25.8 22.1 16.71.19 1.39 1.840.5601238.SH 1,040 12.06 12.8 10.2 8.50.95 1.18 1.420.4603348.SH 188 71.41 48.4 29.3 21.21.47 2.44 3.360.6601689.SH 792 71.90 46.4 31.7 23.01.55 2.27 3.130.6002126.SZ 108 13.60 28.1 16.9 13.20.48 0.80 1.030.5300681.SZ 73 44.15 58.0 25.6 14.80.76 1.72 2.970.2300745.SZ 50 40.14 86.3 27.9 14.90.47 1.44 2.690.2603997.SH 158 14.18 153.0 26.5 16.50.09 0.53 0.860.3603085.SH 40 10.16 73.1 31.1 16.20.14 0.33 0.630.2605128.SH 48 60.01 66.3 22.2 13.90.90 2.70 4.310.2603179.SH 218 44.68 47.7 29.1 21.00.94 1.53 2.130.5603035.SH 91 24.00 15.9 12.7 10.11.51 1.89 2.380.4603305.SH 275 41.29 37.2 23.8 17.21.11 1.73 2.400.4603596.SH 375 91.30 51.9 35.4 25.41.76 2.58 3.590.6002284.SZ 65 8.87 89.9 36.8 20.50.10 0.24 0.430.3000887.SZ 208 15.77 18.0 13.7 10.90.88 1.15 1.440.4603197.SH 97 46.50 45.3 28.0 18.61.03 1.66 2.500.43.2 1788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
