20221115_平安证券_2023年新能源汽车供需格局展望：预计插混翻番看好高端纯电_25页.pdf
2023 2022 11 15 S1060511010006 BQV509 WANGDEAN S1060121070063 WANGGENHAI 2022 2023 900950 2022 680 93.2%2023 2023 930 36.8%905 39.2%2023 2023 2024 2023 2023 Q1Q4 145/220/265/300 15.4%/63.8%/34.7%/34.3%2023 20 DMi DMi 2023 2023 10-20 2023 310 155 2023 50%AITO 2023 595 2022 100 20 2023 20 2023 20 2023 2023 280 2023 100 2023 70/46/45 2022 2023 20 30 2/24 2023 0175.HK 2015.HK 9868.HK 9866.HK 1 2 2023 2022 2023 3 4 5 3/24 EPS P/E 2022-11-14 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 300496.SZ 117.50 1.41 2.01 2.75 3.64 83.0 58.5 42.8 32.2 0175.HK 9.53 0.48 0.68 0.88 1.18 19.8 14.0 10.8 8.1 601633.SH 30.18 0.73 0.96 1.32 1.50 41.1 31.5 22.9 20.1 2015.HK 64.94-0.15-0.60-0.45 0.46-421.1-108.2-144.3 141.1 9868.HK 31.39-2.82-4.45-2.45-0.07-11.1-7.1-12.8-448.8 600104.SH 14.39 2.10 1.60 1.85 2.03 6.9 9.0 7.8 7.1 601238.SH 11.91 0.70 1.10 1.23 1.40 17.0 10.9 9.7 8.5 002920.SZ 115.16 1.50 2.09 2.82 3.77 76.8 55.1 40.9 30.6 688326.SH 151.89 1.22 1.81 2.68 3.58 124.7 84.0 56.6 42.5 002906.SZ 38.18 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5 2023 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E R 250 R 300 1.8 0 0 0 0 300 R 400 1.8 1.62 1.3 0.91 0 R 400 2.5 2.25 1.8 1.26 0 50 1 0.85 0.68 0.48 0 2023 30 30 2023 30 2023 2023 2023 10%30 15 2.65/1.33 2024 2023 2024 10%2023 Q1Q4 145/220/265/300 15.4%/63.8%/34.7%/34.3%6 2023 2022 2023 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050100150200250300350Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42021A 2022A/E 2023E 10/24 1 2023 2450 900 2023 2023 2023 10%5%2023 7.5%2023 7.5%2023 2450 2022 0.82%905 39.2%2022 250260 2023 350360 7 2023 2021A 2022E 2023E 2023 5 65 87 86 MINI EV QQ Lumin M2 0 0 0 38 30 20 103 117 106 5-10 44 85 85 T03 V Pro 0 0 0 535 495 455 579 580 540 10-15 47 110 121 Plus EV AC AION S AION Y U Plus DMi 05 L PHEV UNI-V iDD CS55 PLUS PHEV 13 37 85 534 505 450 594 652 656 15-20 35 80 90 PLUS EV Plus EV AION S Plus AION Y ID.3 P5 03 EV G6/M6 Plus DMi 07 H6 PHEV L PHEV 03 UNI-K iDD CS75 Plus PHEV 14 53 95 297 335 290 346 468 475 20-30 69 110 160 EV EV Model 3/Y P7 B ID.4/6 C673 EV S C01 DM DM 07M5 DHT PHEV L PHEV 17 40 75 221 230 190 307 380 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16/24 2022 EV EV Model 3 Model Y P7 ID4/ID6 20-30 DMi DMi M5 DHT PEHV 16 20-30 2022 20-30 2023 C673 S C01 P7 B 2023 20-30 07 C673 L PHEV M5 2023 2.6 30-40 SUV 3 A4 C Model Y ONE 30-40 2022 30-40 Model Y Model Y 30-40 001 L7 G9 ET5 2022 ONE 09 PHEV M7 02468101214161820Model 3 EV ID.4P7 ID.6 EV DM DM M5 DHT PHEV 17/24 17 30-40 2022 30-40 2023 L7 LS7 R7 2022 10 2023 F7 11 2022 2023 12 ET5 G9 2023 2023 C 30-40 L8 ONE 2022 11 L7 2023 2 D9 2022 10 2022 6 SUV 30-40 2022 11 80 30-40 2.7 40 40 30 40 Q5L/A6L X3/5 GLC/E L9 L9 BBA L9 A6 PHEV 5 PHEV E PHEV L9 05101520253035Model Y 001 L7 ONE 09 PHEV M7 18/24 18 40 2022 40 2023 866 ES8/ES6/EC6 NT2.0 L9 2023 009 MPV 2023 1 2023 80-150 40 2023 2023 19 2023 2022E 2023E 190 280 155 125 07 DM Plus DMi 05 75 100 23 100 33 70 2023 50%18 17 30 2023 5 B 2022 56 50 Mini EV A00 2022 14 46 2023 3 SUV 23 15 80 MPV 02468101214 19/24 8 H6 PHEV H-DOG PHEV PHEV 4 H6 A SUV A-PHEV 23 PHEV 20 2022 500 PHEV 2023 400 700 800 23 2 23 2023 1 20 45 Lumin 10 2023 C673 15 10 11 22 12 23 9 23 5 PHEV UNI-K Idd Z6 PHEV UNI-V idd 23 7 23 15 28 35 40 2023 Hyper SSR SUV 23 35 10 25 M5 M5 EV M7 25 25 A00 14 30 ET5 866 23 NT2.0 23 ET5 11 ET7 4 SUV 10 5 13 24 L7 23 2 20 3 2 23 24 23 23 24 17 22 S 22 11 V U 23 22 20 20 23 23 22 12 20 G3i P5 P7 G3 P5 P7 23 23 B C 2023 P5 G3i 2 G9 6 P7 8 B C 4()18 15 B 23 22 18 12 16 C01 22 10 23 5 23 3 3 T03 C11 23 8 20 15 23 11 10 23 10 6 7 22 2 3 R7 23 F7 3 1 2 LS7 2022 23 2 20/24 4 2 30 25 23 49 43 680 930 2023 930 310 620 Wind 2023 25-40 2023 20 2023 2023 2022 Wind 3.1 2023 2023 2022 190 2023 2023 280 07 DM Plus DMi 05 2023 100 2022 1-10 55.5 2022 70-75 Model 3 Model Y 2023 100 0%50%100%150%200%250%0102030405060708090100 21/24 21 2022 3.2 2022 2023 2022 2022 2023 2022 ET7/ES7/ET5 2023 ET5 2023 5 866 ES8/ES6/EC6 8 2023 30 ET5 11 ET7 4 SUV 10 5 G9 2023 P7 2023 2023 B C G3i P5 2 P7 8 G9 6 4 2023 20 L9 ONE L8 2022 11 L7 2023 2 2 24 2023 2023 2024 2023 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 22/24 22 3.3 2023 50%70 001 1 009 2023 1 2023 2023 18 2022 14 2022 10 11.7 G6/M6 M2 2023 2023 17 2023 7 2023 30 B 2023 5 2023 70 2023 2023 2023 46 2023 3 SUV 2023 15 H6 PHEV 2022 H-DOG PHEV PHEV 2023 4 H6 A SUV A-SUV 2023 20 2022 80 2023 MPV 2023 8 2023 2023 46 45 Lumin E-Star 10 SL03 2023 6 C673 2023 15 10 11 2022 12 2023 9 2023 5 UNI-K iDD Z6 PHEV 2022 UNI-V iDD 2023 CS75 Plus PHEV CS55 Plus PHEV V 2023 15 3 2023 3 Hyper SSR SUV 20 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,0001Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 23/24 23 40 2023 35 2023 310 2022 DMi 2023 155 50%20-30 23 2023 Wind 2023 0175.HK 2015.HK 9868.HK 9866.HK 1 2 2023 2022 2023 3 4 5 15530 3025 242026020406080100120140160180 2022E 2023E:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2022 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 9 16 100033 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
