20231119_东方证券_新能源汽车行业2024年度投资策略：不畏浮云遮望眼辽阔前路日光明_24页.pdf
|2023 1-9 38%/35.4%/32.0%20%40%2023 1-8 816+41%1-9 486GWh+44%2023 Q3 Q1 Q2-3 23(300750)(300014)(002709)(002812)(300568)(001301)(603799)(300037)/2023 11 19 021-63325888*6118 S0860515100003 S0860517100003 S0860521080002 2023 2023-11-09 2023 2023-06-14 2023 2022-11-24 2024 2 2023.5.5.5.11.11.12.13.15.15.18.21.22 ZXCXvMnQtQpOqOpMnQrOqR9PbP9PpNmMoMoNjMoPqReRpNmM9PoPsOMYmOrQxNmPnO 3 1 2023.5 2 GWh.6 3.6 4 2022-2023.6 5.6 6/.7 7/.7 8/.7 9/.7 10/.7 11/.8 12/.8 13.8 14.9 15.9 16 2020-2022.10 17.12 18.12 19.13 20 2020-2022.13 21.15 22.15 23 2023/Wh.16 24.16 25.16 26.17 27.17 28.17 29 2022.18 30 2023 1-9.18 31.18 32.18 33.19 34.19 4 35.19 36.20 1 2023.11 2 2023.11 3 top10.15 4 GWh.19 5 2023 2023 2023 Wind 300 11 10-20.7%300-7.4%300 1 2023 Wind 2020-2022 2023 22Q4 2022 294.6GWh 541.8GWh 2022 247.2GWh 2023 2021 2022Q4-2023Q2 2023-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%300 6 2 GWh 3 Wind 39 2023 9 70%50%-70%37%/26pct/41pct/23pct/14pct/36pct/12pct 2023H1 2022 20pct 4 2022-2023 5 2023 2023 10 67.8%40-60%30-40%30%05010015020025030001002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0100200300400500 0%20%40%60%80%100%2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7 2022 9 2022 11 2023 1 2023 3 2023 5 2023 7 2023 9 52.5%74.8%92.2%95.0%81.3%83.4%60.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020H 2020 2021H 2021 2022H 2022 2023H 7 6/7/8/9/10/0102030405060 99%01020304050111 523 523 622 622 811 024681012141618 0510152025 01234567 8 11/12/1-2022 2023 1.5 13 2 3.6/GWh 3.9 4.5 5.2 0123456()()()0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0:(9um):(7um)7m+2m 9m+3m 0.00.51.01.52.02.5 9 14 2020 2 57 2020 IPO 2019 5 2022 1110 15 Wind 3 2021 2022 90%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0 GWh 02004006008001,0001,2002019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10 16 2020-2022 Wind 57 020406080100120140160 11 2023 57 13310.9+22%914.7-16%63%+10pct 62%+33pct 1 2023 2 022Q1-3 2 023 Q1-3 699.9 6%762.4 6%9%1013.9 9%1063.3 8%5%1149.1 10%874.1 7%-24%642.5 6%716.3 5%11%537.1 5%547.2 4%2%134.7 1%133.0 1%-1%490.3 4%381.6 3%-22%93.3 1%101.7 1%9%418.4 4%408.3 3%-2%5771.7 53%8322.9 63%44%1 0 9 5 0.8 1 0 0%1 3 3 1 0.9 1 0 0%2 2%Wind 2 2023 2 022Q1-3 2 023 Q1-3 350.0 32%152.9 17%-56%54.9 5%48.6 5%-12%66.8 6%37.9 4%-43%62.0 6%-16.8-2%-127%74.3 7%48.0 5%-35%40.7 4%30.6 3%-25%89.5 8%29.8 3%-67%9.5 1%0.7 0%-92%24.7 2%18.1 2%-27%316.2 29%565.0 62%79%1 0 8 8.5 1 0 0%9 1 4.7 1 0 0%-1 6%Wind 12 Q3-4.9pct Q1 Q2-3-2.3pct-0.6pct 17 Wind IPO 2021 2023Q3 2441 2022Q1 2023Q3 28%18 Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000 yoy 13 2020 2022 IPO 2022 19 Wind GGII 2020 146 33 35%2020 181 132 58 56%2020 56 12 29%19 13 68%20 2020-2022 GGII 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%020406080100120140160180200 2020-2022 14 9 20 7 10 44 15 128 75 IPO EVTank 2023 1-8 IPO 79 12 1 3 15 30%2022 704.0 687.2 25.6%2023 2023 1-9 627.5+38%1-9 29.8%+6.4pct 30%21 22 2020 top10 2022 2023 4 top10 9 G9 M7 3 top10 2020 2021 2022 2023 4 1 54 51 mini 55 4.3 2 42 43 PLUS 46 3.3 3 H6 38 mini 39 Model Y 46 3.0 4 34 H6 36 44 PLUS 2.9 5 33 31 39 2.7 6 30 CS75 27 PLUS 32 Model Y 2.7 7 30 27 H6 28 2.7 8 CS75 27 27 27 2.6 9 25 24 27 Aion Y 2.1 10 CR-V 24 22 26 CS75 2.1-80%-40%0%40%80%120%160%0204060801001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 20232023 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 16 11 1.02/Wh 10 0.63/Wh 38%60kWh 23400 23 2023/Wh 23 22Q4 Q1 3 ACEA 1-9 171.0 21.5%+1.1pct 40%22Q4 23Q4 2030 24 25 ACEA ACEA 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0204060801002020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3BEV PHEV BEV-yoy PHEV-yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%17 23 99.2+57%8.5%+2.3pct 9 13.2 9.9%IRA 26 27 Marklines Marklines 2020 2023 1-8 816 41%20%10%2023 2023 1-9 6 2022 3 3%11%2023 1300 2030 4700 2022-2030 CAGR 20%28 Clean Technic-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%024681012141 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 20232023 20230%2%4%6%8%10%12%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 20230%20%40%60%80%100%120%01000200030004000500060002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 18 2022 70%90%80%80%9 Top10 6 63%2022 3 29 2022 30 2023 1-9 SNE Research SNE Research 2023 1-9 112.3 88%251.0 112%2023 1-9 101.2GWh 89.8GWh 88.7%120.4%31 32 Wind Wind 37%13%14%7%5%5%4%3%2%1%9%LG SK On SDI 37%16%14%7%5%5%5%2%2%1%6%LG SK On SDI-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0246810121416182021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09 yoy-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%051015202530352021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09 yoy 19 4 GWh 9 1-9 11.0 50.5%3.8%89.8 120.4%2.3-23.3%11.4-13.3-6.7%101.2-IRA LG 2023H1 SKI SK On 10%33 34 35-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1LGES SDI SK On-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1Ecopro-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1W-Scope 20 16 23 7 12 2300 36 0123456789 21 2023 1-9 38%/35.4%/32.0%20%40%2023 1-8 816+41%1-9 486GWh+44%2020-2022 2023 2022 20 Q3 Q1 Q2-3 2022Q1(300750)(300014)(002709)(002812)(300568)(001301)(603799)(300037)22 23 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
