20231102_兴业证券_食品饮料行业证券研究报告:海外食品饮料投资回顾_20页.pdf
请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明 industryId()marketData relatedReport 10 20231016 emailAuthor SFC:BMM189 SAC:S0190519060002 SAC:S0190522080006 assAuthor title 10 createTime1 2023 11 2(2023.10.16-2023.10.31)2023.10.31 2023.10.16 2023.10.31(%)2023.10.16 2023.10.31 2023(%)17,112.48-3.94 9,350.25-13.49 5,861.74-4.16 3,894.21-12.58 16,187.13-0.27 165.17-21.94 2,436.51-4.35 1,240.61-13.06 2,393.31-3.40 611.84-21.16 Wind*2023(%)2022 12 2022.12.30 06979.HK 00322.HK 00220.HK 09985.HK 9 433716 16.7%00291.HK 01610.HK 00546.HK 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2023 9 CPI 3.7%3.6%PEP.O KO.N A 10 1.67%300 4.15 pcts 31 3 10 31 PE TTM 26.4x 2011 25%50%10 3.94%3.40%0.27%4.35%(11.1%)(8.0%)(7.6%)(6.4%)(4.4%)(-13.0%)(-8.3%)(-6.3%)(-6.2%)(-5.2%)10 23 10 19 10 22 B 19.58%10 20 06979.HK 00322.HK 00220.HK 00291.HK 00168.HK 09985.HK 00546.HK 02411.HK 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-2-1.-3-1.1.-3-1.2.-4-2.-5-2.1 10.-5-2.2.-6-3.-7-3.1.-7-3.2.-8-4.-9-4.1.-9-4.2.-12-5.-18-1.-4-2.-4-3.-4-4 LME.-4-5 2023.10.16 2023.10.31.-5-6 2011-2023 PE 2023.10.31.-6-7 2023.-6-8 2023.10.16 2023.10.31.-6-1.-6-2.-12-3.-13-4.-14-5.-15-6.-16-7.-17-8.-18-9.-18-WUDWyRsPoNqRoQtQsPpQmN7NbP7NsQmMtRmPfQnMrQeRpPtQbRqQzRxNrNwONZmOxP 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-3-1 1.1 06979.HK 00322.HK 00220.HK 09985.HK 9 433716 16.7%00291.HK 01610.HK 00546.HK 1+2 2023 8 9 29 00291.HK 00168.HK 1 2 3 00322.HK 00220.HK 09985.HK 1 2 2023 02319.HK 06979.HK H&H 01112.HK 2023 9 4,240 Q4(01610.HK)(00546.HK)请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-4-1.2 8 18.7 17 15.7 0.3 3.8%0.2 62.8%0.1 4.3%0.2 0.2%1 2:Wind*2023 10 31:Wind*2023 10 31 3 4 LME:Wind*2023 10 31:Wind*2023 10 31 2023 9 CPI 3.7%3.6%CPI 0.2 4.1%CPI 0.2 0.4%0.3%CPI 0.3%PEP.O 2023 Q3 234.5 6.7%-2.1pcts 7009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002020/01/022020/04/022020/07/022020/10/022021/01/022021/04/022021/07/022021/10/022022/01/022022/04/022022/07/022022/10/022023/01/022023/04/022023/07/022023/10/02():CBOT/2003004005006007008009002020/01/022020/04/022020/07/022020/10/022021/01/022021/04/022021/07/022021/10/022022/01/022022/04/022022/07/022022/10/022023/01/022023/04/022023/07/022023/10/02():CBOT/2004006008001,0001,2001,4002020/01/022020/04/022020/07/022020/10/022021/01/022021/04/022021/07/022021/10/022022/01/022022/04/022022/07/022022/10/022023/01/022023/04/022023/07/022023/10/02():CBOT/1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002020/01/022020/04/022020/07/022020/10/022021/01/022021/04/022021/07/022021/10/022022/01/022022/04/022022/07/022022/10/022023/01/022023/04/022023/07/022023/10/02:LME3/请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-5-9%+11pcts-2.5pcts 2023 Q3+1.4pcts 54.5%+0.9pcts 13.2%KO.N 2023Q2 119.7 5.7%+11%10pcts 1pcts 2023Q2 59%2022 57.3%1.7pcts 1 2 2023Q2 25.5+4.5pcts 21.3%2 2.1 10 A 10 1.67%300 4.15 pcts 31 3 10 31 PE TTM 26.4x 2011 25%50%10 3.89%2.57%1.96%1.37%0.20%0.12%10 3.94%3.40%0.27%4.35%5 2023.10.16 2023.10.31 Wind-9-6-303SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-6-6 2011-2023 PE 2023.10.31 Wind 7 2023 8 2023.10.16 2023.10.31:Wind*2022 12 2022.12.30:Wind*2023 10 2023.10.13 2.2 1 10(11.1%)(8.0%)(7.6%)(6.4%)(4.4%)2 10(-13.0%)(-8.3%)(-6.3%)(-6.2%)(-5.2%)1()2023.10.31 2023.10.16 2023.10.31(%)2023(%)01579.HK 14.20 11.1 147-48.0 0102030405060702011/1/42011/4/112011/7/82011/10/122012/1/102012/4/172012/7/172012/10/182013/1/172013/4/242013/7/292013/11/12014/1/292014/5/72014/8/42014/11/62015/2/42015/5/122015/8/72015/11/122016/2/162016/5/162016/8/122016/11/172017/2/212017/5/232017/8/212017/11/222018/2/262018/5/292018/8/242018/11/282019/3/52019/6/52019/9/22019/12/52020/3/112020/6/112020/9/92020/12/142021/3/182021/6/212021/9/152021/12/212022/3/252022/8/82022/11/42023/2/82023/5/112023/8/9PE(ttm)1/4 3/4 1/8 7/8-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2022-12-302023-1-112023-1-202023-2-32023-2-142023-2-232023-3-62023-3-152023-3-242023-4-42023-4-142023-4-252023-5-92023-5-182023-5-292023-6-72023-6-162023-6-292023-7-102023-7-192023-7-282023-8-82023-8-172023-8-282023-9-62023-9-152023-9-262023-10-62023-10-172023-10-27-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-7-06186.HK 4.86 8.0 441-21.7 00288.HK 4.67 7.6 599 10.6 01610.HK 1.82 6.4 83-18.4 06808.HK 1.65 4.4 157-34.0 06969.HK 6.03 4.0 370-49.4 00220.HK 5.33 1.9 230-27.9 09633.HK 44.55 1.8 5,010 2.9 00336.HK 2.63 1.2 85-32.8 00345.HK 9.64 0.8 103-39.9 01117.HK 0.80 0.0 63-17.7 01837.HK 0.47 0.0 10-2.1 03799.HK 3.73 0.0 0 8.4 01475.HK 5.97-0.5 62-8.7 00322.HK 10.38-1.3 585-21.4 00546.HK 4.06-1.9 103-2.2 02319.HK 25.55-2.1 1,005-26.8 01876.HK 14.88-2.5 1,971-38.5 00168.HK 59.30-3.3 1,034-20.9 00151.HK 4.86-3.6 577-4.0 00506.HK 2.71-4.2 76 2.0 01112.HK H&H 8.84-4.5 57-42.7 00291.HK 41.40-5.2 1,343-23.1 01458.HK 2.58-6.2 61-52.1 06055.HK 10.12-6.3 70-11.5 01717.HK 2.75-8.3 50-33.2 01432.HK 0.30-13.0 25-4.9 Wind*2023.10.16 2023.10.31 3 3.1 10 23 10 23 10 22 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-8-10 19 10 19 2.5 1800 12 7000 800 1600 3.2 10 22 B 19.58%10 22 B2B 2019 B2B B 10 10 1437.66 19.58%397.53 51%10 20 10 20 2030 60 60 NFWF 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-9-4 4.1 4 2 CPB.N)HSY.N 1 00168.HK 1 06979.HK 2023 10 27 CPB.N)CAMPBELL SOUP 2023 93.6 9.3%+8.3pcts 13pcts-4pcts 6.5%Prego 12.5%Goldfish Lance Snyders of Hanover Kettle Brand Cape Cod 2023 11.0%29.2 31.2%0.5pcts 9.5pcts 3.0pcts-10.4pcts-1.5pcts-0.1pcts 13.3%8.6 9.2%0.4pcts 2023 4.8%27.4+3.0pcts 29.3%-1.2pcts 13.2%46.4+10.3pcts 49.6%+1.7pcts 10.4%12.1+14.2pcts 12.9%+0.2pcts 2.1%7.7+6.2pcts 8.2%-0.6pcts FY2024/FY2025/FY2026 94.7/96.7/98.1 yoy 1.2%/2.1%/1.5%9.2/9.7/10.1 yoy 7.7%/5.4%/3.4%46.58 2024 15 PE 2023 10 29 HSY.N 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-10-HERSHEY 80 100 2023 Q3 30.3 11.1%-4.5pcts 10.7%9.8pcts 0.9pcts 2023 Q1 Q3 85.1 9.5%9.1pcts 0.4pcts 2023 Q3 22.7%13.6 44.9%4.3pcts 44.9%2.4pcts 29.8%5.2 17.1%2.5pcts 2023 Q1 Q3 15.5%38.7 45.5%21.2%15.1 17.8%2023 Q3 9.9%24.6-0.5pcts 10.1%11.1pcts-1.0pcts 25.5%3.5-61.5pcts 25.5%3.3pcts 22.2pcts 4.4%2.3-11.0pcts-1.2%4.1pcts-5.3pcts 2023 Q1 Q3 8.5%69.0 17.2%8.9 10.8%7.2 2023/2024/2025 112.6/115.1/115.7 8.0%/2.3%/0.5%19.1/20.2/20.6 16.0%/6.1%/1.6%214.50 2023 23 PE 2023 10 29 00168.HK 2023 2023 93.9 4.6%14.8 4.7%13.7 7.8%309.8 6.4%49.1 15.0%46.0 19.1%2023 729.4 0.2%409 3.5%290.2 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-11-2023 7 14 33 1903 120 120 1+1 2023 10 27 Wind 2023 PE 17.0 2023 10 27 06979.HK 2023 10 25 718 11729.25 1 11729.25 3.59%927 327 300 300 10802.25 715 2 1/2023 10 25 11.4/3 2024 2025 4 2023/2024/2025 70.1/85.2/101.0+19.8%/+21.6%/+18.5%16.0/19.8/24.4+33.7%/+23.4%/+23.5%12.03 EPS 2023/2024/2025 23/19/15 PE 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-12-4.2 00322.HK 2023 H1 409.1 7.0%-0.9pcts 139.5 3.0%34.1%-1.3pcts 266.1 9.5%65.0%+1.5pcts 1 2023 H1 124.7 15.6%30.5%+2.2pcts+5.2pcts/+0.5pcts 25.8%/32.7%2 2023 H1 16.4 30.7%+0.7pcts 4.0%+1.8pcts/+0.2pcts 5.8%/3.3%1 BIG/2 2023 2023 6 30 6 2023/2024/2025 841.1/896.7/953.9+6.9%/+6.6%/+6.4%35.6/42.2/47.7+35.2%/+18.6%/+12.9%10.07 2023 14.6 PE 2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()787.2 841.1 896.7 953.9 6.3%6.9%6.6%6.4%()26.3 35.6 42.2 47.7-30.8%35.2%18.6%12.9%29.1%31.0%31.5%31.8%3.3%4.2%4.7%5.0%()0.47 0.63 0.75 0.85 WIND 00220.HK 2023 4.5%2023H1 145.7+4.5%92.6+12.3%63.5%41.6+13.9%16.6+18.1%31.8+7.1%请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-13-2022 49.0-8.7%33.6%2023H1 31.1%1.0 pcts 2023H1 23.3%+1.0 pcts 2023 3.7%+0.1 pcts 2023H1 2023 3 3 3.42 2023H1 8.77+42.7%6.0%+1.6 pcts 2023 O2O O2O 2023/2024/2025 307.1/333.5/360.4 15.3/17.6/20.5 6.95 2023 18 PE 3 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()282.57 307.11 333.53 360.43 12.0%8.7%8.6%8.1%()12.22 15.27 17.57 20.52-18.6%24.9%15.1%16.8%29.0%29.8%30.6%31.2%()0.28 0.35 0.41 0.48 WIND 06979.HK 2023 10 25 718 11729.25 1 11729.25 3.59%927 327 300 300 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-14-10802.25 715 2 1/2023 10 25 11.4/3 2024 2025 4 2023/2024/2025 70.1/85.2/101.0+19.8%/+21.6%/+18.5%16.0/19.8/24.4+33.7%/+23.4%/+23.5%12.03 EPS 2023/2024/2025 23/19/15 PE 4 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()58.6 70.1 85.2 101.0 14.8%19.8%21.6%18.5%()12.0 16.0 19.8 24.4 11.8%33.7%23.4%23.5%55.3%58.5%60.7%60.9%20.4%22.8%23.2%24.2%EPS()N/A 0.49 0.60 0.73 WIND 00291.HK 2023 H1 13.6%238.7 2023 H1 109.9 46.0%3.8pcts 22.3%46.5 19.5%1.4pcts 2023 H1 2023 H1 657.1+4.4%144.4+26.4%22.0%2022 3.8 pcts 4.4%2023 H1 45.2%2022 2.9pcts 2 XGAMES+AI X 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-15-superX 2023 H1 0.0 2023 H1 60.0%+2023 1 10 2023H1 9.8 EBIT 0.7 EBIT 4.0 2023 H1 2 2023/2024/2025 402.0/438.6/472.7 55.8/63.8/73.0 64.16 2024 30 PE 5 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()352.6 402.0 438.6 472.7 5.6%14.0%9.1%7.8%()43.4 55.8 63.8 73.0-5.3%28.5%14.3%14.4%38.5%44.5%45.3%45.9%12.3%13.9%14.6%15.4%()1.34 1.72 1.97 2.25 WIND 00168.HK 2023 2023 93.9 4.6%14.8 4.7%13.7 7.8%309.8 6.4%49.1 15.0%46.0 19.1%2023 729.4 0.2%409 3.5%290.2 2023 7 14 33 1903 120 120 1+1 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-16-2023 10 27 Wind 2023 PE 17.0 6 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023Q3()277.6 301.7 321.7 93.9(%)-0.8 8.7 6.6-4.6()22.0 31.6 37.1 14.8(%)18.9 43.3 17.6 4.7()1.63 2.33 2.74 1.09 WIND 09985.HK 2023 H1 23.3 3.0%11.1 28.4%+9.4pcts 47.5%1 2 3 4.5 2022-2.6 5.0 17.0%+2.6pcts 21.4%2023 H1 12.9 3.9%55.4%-3.9pcts 24.0%62030 26.8%20.8/9.3 14.1%40.1%+3.9pcts 1.8%27361 16.4%34.1/1.1 3.7%4.5%2022 10.1%2647 15.4%39.7/2023 H1 88.7%-0.7pcts 11.3%+0.7pcts 4.2%-1.0pcts 7.1%+1.7pcts 2023/2024/2025 50.8/56.3/61.5+9.7%/+10.8%/+9.2%10.1/11.5/13.4+564.5%/+14.8%/+16.1%8.40 2023 18.0 PE 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-17-7 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()46.3 50.8 56.3 61.5-3.5%9.7%10.8%9.2%()1.5 10.1 11.5 13.4-81.7%564.5%14.8%16.1%42.3%47.6%47.9%48.1%3.3%19.8%20.5%21.8%()0.07 0.43 0.49 0.57 WIND 00546.HK 2023 H1 135.8 5.0%-30.8pcts 8.1%65.6-26.8pcts 48.3%+1.4pcts 14.0%40.9-51.3pcts 30.1%-6.7pcts 54.7%8.3+77.1pcts 6.1%+2.0pcts 73.6%16.3-64.1pcts 12.0%+4.7pcts 25.9%4.7-58.7pcts 3.5%-1.4pcts 2023 H1 17.4%29.6 21.8%-5.9pcts/14.8%/14.5%/36.1%/61.1%/20.0%-6.1/-14.9/-3.8/+10.5/-15.2pcts 8168/-3.6%61.2 3.6%8424/20.2%10.5 19.8%5920/23.7%15.3 16.5%2023 H1 11.3%-4.4pcts 2023/2024/2025 277.5/285.2/299.2+1.0%/+2.8%/+4.9%30.8/31.4/32.8-20.3%/+2.0%/+4.5%4.77 2023 3.6 PE 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-18-8 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()274.7 277.5 285.2 299.2 27.6%1.0%2.8%4.9%()38.6 30.8 31.4 32.8 201.5%-20.3%2.0%4.5%26.3%22.8%22.4%22.1%()1.52 1.21 1.24 1.29 WIND 9()2023E 2023E EPS PE()()(%)(%)00322.HK 537 0.63 15.12 841.1 35.6 31.0 4.2 00220.HK 211 0.35 13.98 307.1 15.3 29.8 5.0 06979.HK 342 0.49 21.32 70.1 16.0 58.5 22.8 00291.HK 1233 1.72 22.09 402.0 55.8 44.5 13.9 00168.HK 949 3.24 16.80 343.7 44.3-12.9 09985.HK 157 0.43 15.54 50.8 10.1 47.6 19.8 00546.HK 95 1.21 3.08 277.5 30.8 22.8 11.1 Wind*EPS EPS%*Wind*2023 10 31 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-19-12 300 50 500 15%5%15%-5%5%-5%/JinJiang Road&Bridge Construction Development Co Ltd Chouzhou International Investment Ltd()China Cinda 2020 I Management Ltd 2022()Taishan City Investment Co.,Ltd.(BVI)(BVI)CICC Hong Kong Finance 2016 MTN Limited Zhejiang Kunpeng(BVI)Company Limited XL(BVI)INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIMITED BVI Higher Key Management Limited Zhejiang Boxin BVI Co Ltd.Gaoyou Construction Investment Development BVI Co.,Ltd.请 务必阅读 正文之 后的信 息披露 和重要声 明-20-Yi Bright International Limited Yunnan Energy Investment Overseas Finance Company Limited CMS International Gemstone Limited.國 銀 XianJin Industry Investment Company Limited SDOE Development I Company Limited Zhejiang Baron BVI Co Ltd./1934 15a-6(AYE823)/36 15 200135 6 SK 32 01-08 100020 5001 T2 52 518035 199 32 852 35095929.hk