20231112_国盛证券_建筑装饰行业水利专题报告：万亿国债助力加速增长细分领域受益如何？_25页.pdf
|2023 11 12 2022 1 44%1-9 4%5.2 57%2018-2021/34%/38%/14%/15%2021/23%/56%85%5000 50%2012-2016 2017-2020 2023Q1-3 586 9.7%30%2021-2022 32%/75%30 124/1200+/46%0.572 2021/771/2715 2.8%/1.5%2022/99.4%/98.1%8 1 PB 0.7X PB 0.95X PB 0.5X PB 0.5X PE 4.9X 2023 PE 2 PB 0.7X PB 0.95X 3 PE 33X 4 PE 9.5X PE 34X S0680518030004 S0680518010003 S0680122060010 1 Q3 Q4 2023-11-03 2 2023-10-29 3 2023-10-22 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 601669.SH 0.66 0.74 0.85 0.95 7.73 6.93 6.07 5.41 601868.SH 0.19 0.21 0.26 0.30 11.58 10.43 8.41 7.13 601800.SH 1.17 1.28 1.41 1.56 6.75 6.18 5.61 5.09 601390.SH 1.26 1.36 1.52 1.70 4.60 4.26 3.82 3.41 600502.SH 0.80 0.98 1.18 1.41 5.90 4.86 4.03 3.36 300021.SZ-0.11 0.15 0.24 0.34 42.79 33.19 20.43 14.26 002457.SZ-0.50 0.28 0.36 0.44 19.08 33.78 26.31 21.54 000778.SZ-0.42 0.41 0.47 0.54 9.33 9.51 8.25 7.32 Wind*Wind-16%0%16%32%2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 300 2023 11 12 P.2 1.4 2.7 2.1.7 2.1.1.7 2.1.2.8 2.2.9 2.2.1.9 2.2.2.12 2.3.12 2.3.1.12 2.3.2.17 2.3.3.18 2.4.19 2.4.1.19 2.4.2.22 3.23 4.24 1.4 2.5 3 2018-2021.5 4 2018-2021.6 5 2018-2021/.6 6 2018-2021/.6 7 2018-2021/.6 8 2021.7 9 2022.7 10 2017-2021.7 11 2017-2021.8 12 2017-2021.8 13.8 14 2012-2023Q1-3.10 15 2012-2023Q1-3.10 16 2012-2023Q1-3.11 17.11 18.12 19.13 20.13 21 2016-2022.14 22 2022.14 23.14 24.15 25.15 0YBYvMsPtQpOtNnOqNsNqR6MbP6MnPqQpNoNeRoPoPlOmNtQ9PrRwOxNtQpOMYmPnR 2023 11 12 P.3 26 2016-2022.15 27.16 28.16 29.17 30.17 31.18 32.18 33 2022.18 34.19 35.19 36.19 37.20 38.20 39.21 40.21 41.21 42.21 43.23 2023 11 12 P.4 1.1/2023 10000 1-9 8601 4.4%5.2 57%2022 1 10893 44%47 4577 13 100 34 20 2023 11 12 P.5 2 Wind 2018-2021/34%/38%/14%/15%80%1%/20%/80%75%25%3 2018-2021 10893-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0200040006000800010000120002004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 yoy 33%34%34%33%39%36%38%38%11%14%15%15%17%16%13%14%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 11 12 P.6 4 2018-2021 5 2018-2021/6 2018-2021/7 2018-2021/PPP REITs 2021/23%/56%/9%/0.1%/10%/1%/1%2022 11564 44%2036 3204 18%/28%74%74%74%77%4%4%4%4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 1.8%1.0%0.6%0.9%98.2%99.0%99.4%99.1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 18%16%20%22%82%84%80%78%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 78%78%73%76%22%22%27%24%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 11 12 P.7 8 2021 9 2022 2.2.1.2.1.1.85%1 2021 2497 2017-2021 CAGR 0.6%2 2021 2866 2017-2021 CAGR 1.5%3 2021 1124 2017-2021 CAGR 13.3%10 2017-2021 23%56%9%0.1%10%1%1%,18%,28%,55%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0500100015002000250030002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy 2023 11 12 P.8 11 2017-2021 12 2017-2021 200 793 50%13 448/148/170/130 5000 40-50 2030 33 21 43 949 204 60 2053 2628 400 5 2.1.2.2022 1766.7 36.4%2023 1020.6/402/618-57.3%/+101.3%2023/218 EPC 69 36-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001000150020002500300035002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%02004006008001000120014002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy 2023 11 12 P.9 70 77073/58450/2020 9 65%2022 5 33.5%2022 3018.9 81.2%985.6 223.3%2845 33%/1373/625/486/304/57 2022 592 26.2%2022 60 2018-2022 CAGR 12%2023Q1-3 22 1000 2023 10 220 2023 2.2.2.2.1.2023 788 368 420 2023 11 12 P.10 2023 9 4.19 15%3.69 0.5 14 2012-2023Q1-3 Wind 15 2012-2023Q1-3 Wind 2022 863 13%2023Q1-3 586 9.7%2013-2016 2016 617 2012 50%2016 2016-2020 CAGR 15%2021-2022 2023 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0500100015002000250030003500201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q1-3(0%5%10%15%20%25%050001000015000200002500030000350004000045000201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q1-3 2023 11 12 P.11 16 2012-2023Q1-3 Wind 6000 1.72 10295 15 686 2022 42%4000 284 30%17/96 51 1.88 78.3 36 2.18 178.9 120 1.49 122 66 1.85 120 101.5 1.18/1.72 90%10%70%23%93%7%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0200400600800100012001400201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Q1-3(2023 11 12 P.12 18 2.2.2.80%65%50%90%6 30%50%5 2022 78.3 2023/2023 1-9 57.5%2 2 2022 16.2 42%314 40%2.3.2.3.1.23%70%7%2023 11 12 P.13 19 2022 54%2014 2021-2022 209/366 32%/75%2022 167 95 104 54%2023 406 2022 7 20 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05000100001500020000250003000035000400002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2023 11 12 P.14 21 2016-2022 22 2022 1 2 3 23-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%0501001502002503003504002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,167,46%,95,26%,104,28%2023 11 12 P.15 2022 5998 3781 63%2022 0.572 2012 2010 24 Wind 25 26 2016-2022 2024-2025 2021 8 1 150 30 2 124 1500 980 124 700 8100 57 800 2021 8 11 89 2022 88 36 2023 8 35 2021/2022/2023 25/6/4 3-4 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.5420.5480.5540.5590.5650.5680.5720.5250.530.5350.540.5450.550.5550.560.5650.570.5752016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 11 12 P.16 2024-2025 2023 9 1200 2021 2022 2021-2022 461 88 2023-2025 651 27 7300 460 20 50 70 2021 8 2021 2030 2030 12 2.8 2021-2030 1.1 2018 2022 2035 28 1010.751299.51010.51111.51212.52022 2025 2030 2023 11 12 P.17 2.3.2.2022 362 CR5 16%2022 161 2415 1500-3000/1000-1500/1500 2022 362 2022 CR5 16%29 2022 34.01 PVC/PE 14.43 6.60 2.38 1.95 Wind 30 Wind,9.4%,4.0%,1.8%,0.7%,0.5%,83.6%2023 11 12 P.18 2.3.3.1999 31 2014+2016 2020 2022 2 2022 4.05 2019-2022 CAGR 102%35%EPC+O BOT 32 33 2022 0.491.713.994.0500.511.522.533.544.52019 2020 2021 2022 EPC,38%EPC+O BOT,35%,20%,7%2023 11 12 P.19 2.4.2.4.1.34 2022 674.41 99.39%2022 110.3 4.06%2022 713 7.4%2019-2022 8%2020 207L/d 2.07 35 36 Wind Wind-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%0100200300400500600700800200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022 0102030405060708090100197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011201420172020%2023 11 12 P.20 2022 8 30 37 Wind 38 2022 91.35 4.73%/46%/45%/9%2.16/4.04%98.11%0.2pct 70.06%1.47pct 2021 6 8 2000 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%02040608010012020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010020030040050060070080090020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 2023 11 12 P.21 39 40 Wind Wind 41 42 Wind 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%0102030405060708090100201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%0500100015002000250030002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01002003004005006007002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2023 11 12 P.22 2.4.2.40%-50%95%-98%PCCP BCCP BCP JCCP RCP PCCP PCCP RCP PCCP RCP PCCP RCP 2022 70%PCCP 4 PCCP PCCP CR5 2/3 PCCP PCCP PCCP 3PE PCCP 194/10%55/2023 11 12 P.23 1570 50%3.5.2 57%1 PB 0.7X PB 0.95X PB 0.5X PB 0.5X PE4.9X 2023 PE 2 PB 0.7X PB 0.95X 3 PE 33X 4 PE 9.5X PE 34X 43 EPS PE PB 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 5.13 0.66 0.74 0.85 0.95 7.73 6.93 6.07 5.41 0.70 2.17 0.19 0.21 0.26 0.30 11.58 10.43 8.41 7.13 0.95 7.93 1.17 1.28 1.41 1.56 6.75 6.18 5.61 5.09 0.50 5.81 1.26 1.36 1.52 1.70 4.60 4.26 3.82 3.41 0.53 4.74 0.80 0.98 1.18 1.41 5.90 4.86 4.03 3.36 0.86 4.84 0.11 0.15 0.24 0.34 42.79 33.19 20.43 14.26 2.29 9.58 0.50 0.28 0.36 0.44 19.08 33.78 26.31 21.54 1.42 3.92 0.42 0.41 0.47 0.54 9.33 9.51 8.25 7.32 0.62 Wind*2023/11/10 Wind 2023 11 12 P.24 4.1 2 2023 11 12 P.25“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
