20220804_国盛证券_电力设备行业专题研究：2023年EVA粒子供应缺口或将加剧胶膜环节有望维持高盈利_14页.pdf
|2022 08 04 2023 EVA 25 EVA 2022Q4 2023 EVA EVA POE EVA 2022 2023 2024 256 350 420GW EVA 122.1 161.6 188.6 EVA 117.2 147.8 184.8 EVA 2023 EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA 2020 EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA PE 2025 EVA EPS EVA EVA EVA S0680518030001 S0680520030005 1 LGE 2022-07-31 2 2022-07-24 3 2022-07-21 EPS P E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 603806.SH 2.31 2.96 3.71 4.01 29.12 22.73 18.13 16.78 688680.SH-3.07 6.55 9.61 12.06 71.03 32.54 22.19 17.68 603212.SH 0.42 0.90 1.11 1.37 57.48 26.82 21.75 17.62 603051.SH-1.64 1.39 2.27 3.08 60.27 53.18 32.57 24.06 603330.SH-0.47 0.32 0.66 0.89 40.36 42.15 20.21 15.07 003022.SZ 0.82 1.00 1.34 1.65 61.59 50.50 37.69 30.61 000301.SZ-0.73 1.17 2.07 2.38 30.10 18.76 10.62 9.27 Wind wind 2022 8 2-48%-32%-16%0%16%32%2021-08 2021-12 2022-03 2022-07 300 2022 08 04 P.2.3 1.1.3 EVA.5 2.1.5 2.2 EVA.6 EVA.10.11.12 1.3 2.4 3.5 4 2022E-2026E GW.6 5.7 6 2021 EVA.7 7 EVA.8 8 EVA.9 9 eva eva.11 10 EVA 2022/8/2.11 2022 08 04 P.3 1.1 25 1 wind EVA EVA POE POE EVA 2020 EVA EVA 7-10W 1-3W POE PID 10%-30%POE EPE POE POE EVA POE PID EVA EVA POE EPE POE EVA 2022 08 04 P.4 2 EVA EVA POE PID POE EPE POE PID EVA wind POE EVA POE PERC PID POE POE POE POE EVA POE EPE EVA POE 2017 CPIA 2030 70%2022 08 04 P.5 3 CPIA POE/EPE EVA POE PID EPE POEEVA POE EVA EVA 2.1 2022 240250GW 45%SolarPower Europe 5 2022-2026 GMO 2022 2022 228.5 GW 270GW 2020 167.8 GW 61%IHSMarkit 221 GW 232GW BloombergNEF 228 GW 245GW 2022 REPowerEU 3 6 24 0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2021E 2023E 2025E 2027E 2030E 2022 08 04 P.6 BCD 2022 4 1 2022Q1 4 2022E-2026E GW SolarPower Europe 2.2 EVA 90%EVA EVA EVA-Ethylene-vinyl Acetate Copolymer VA EVA VA EVA VA 28%EVA EVA 33.5%EVA 40 EVA 40 20 VA VA EVA VA 45%VA 45%EVA EVA VA 2022 08 04 P.7 5 25%-35%10%-20%/40 15 VA 30%45%CNKI EVA 2021 EVA 149 2020 50 2021 3 EVA 30 10 10 2020 99 149 6 2021 EVA 30 Basell+MTO-20 Basell 20 Basell 12 MTO-7 4 6 2020 99 30 Basell MTO-10 Basell 10 2021 50 2021 149 EVA 2023 2024 2025 EVA 2022 4 61.8 EVA 30 21 12 1.8 22 Q1 10 22 3 20 2022Q4-2023H1 2022 2022 EVA 2023 EVA 185 2023 2024 2022 08 04 P.8 7 EVA 30 2021Q4 1.8 2022Q1 10 2022Q2 20 2022Q4-2023Q1 2022 61.8 30 2023Q1-Q2 25 2023-2024 25 2024 25 2024-2025 20 2024-2025 40+20 2025 2023 185 EVA 2022Q4 2023 EVA EVA POE EVA 2022 2023 2024 256 350 420GW EVA 122.1 161.6 188.6 EVA 117.2 147.8 184.8 EVA 2023 EVA 2022 08 04 P.9 8 EVA 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022E 2023E 2024E EVA GW 50 63 68 75 256 350 420 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 GW 60 75 82 90 307 420 504 21.5%21.5%21.5%21.5%21.5%22.0%22.5%W 215 215 215 215 215 220 225 5.6 7.0 7.6 8.4 28.6 38.2 44.8 47.0%47.0%47.0%47.0%47.0%52.0%56.0%POE POE 58.0%58.0%58.0%58.0%58.0%62.0%66.0%-EVA 3.0 3.7 4.0 4.4 15.1 18.3 19.7-EVA 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 6.7 9.9 12.5-EPE 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 3.9 6.2 8.3-POE 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 2.8 3.8 4.3 EVA g/500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 500.00 EPE EVA 66.0%66.0%66.0%66.0%66.0%66.0%66.0%EVA 23.9 29.8 32.6 35.8 122.1 161.6 188.6 EVA-20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 30 30 30 30 30 30 40 13 15 15 15 14.5 15 17 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 30 30 30 27.5 30 30 10 10 10 7.5 10 10 5 10 3.75 10 10 15 20 15 30 25 160 182 187 192 180.25 222 279 33 38 40 40 37.75 35 35 193 220 227 232 218 257 314 EVA EVA 35%39%41%42%40%44%48%EVA 14.2 17.8 19.3 20.0 71.2 96.6 133.6 EVA-2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 2022 08 04 P.10 LG 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.5 5.0 5.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 21.0 21.0 21.0 TPC 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 TPI 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.4 1.4&10.0 10.0 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 46 51.2 51.2 EVA 25.7 29.3 30.8 31.5 117.2 147.8 184.8 1.8-0.5-1.8-4.3-4.9-13.8-3.8 PVInfoLink EVA EVA 1 20212022 EVA EVA 2 EVA EVA 1 EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA EVA 90%90%EVA 2 EVA EVA EVA EVA 2020 EVA EVA EVA EVA 2022 08 04 P.11 9 eva eva/:-EVA(V5110J):/:-EVA:UL00628:EVA/-2020Q1 12,833 12,664 8.0 2020Q2 9,900 9,827 8.2 2020Q3 10,960 11,229 8.4 2020Q4 16,111 18,098 10.0 2021Q1 17,585 19,993 11.6 2021Q2 19,673 20,439 11.2 2021Q3 20,363 20,788 10.4 2021Q4 22,728 25,550 13.1 2022Q1 19,802 22,222 12.0 2022Q2 25,387 28,218 14.516 wind 2020Q12021Q2 2021Q3 2022Q1 EVA EVA PE 2025 EVA EPS EVA EVA 10 EVA*2022/8/2 EPS PE 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 603806.SH 27.43 34.80 40.84 33.42 26.34 22.44 688680.SH*5.51 8.07 10.13 31.06 21.18 16.88 603212.SH 3.40 4.56 5.54 32.52 24.25 19.98 603051.SH*1.28 2.09 2.83 52.33 32.05 23.67 603330.SH*1.06 2.20 2.95 44.04 21.12 15.75 003022.SZ 72.90 128.77 147.59 17.05 9.65 8.42 000301.SZ*13.17 16.70 20.20 48.36 38.16 31.53 wind 2022 08 04 P.12 EVA EVA 2022 08 04 P.13“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%26 3 100032 010-57671718 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
