2024 2023 11 6 S0930515090002 2 2023/10/31 A/H PE TTM 31x/21x A 2020-1x H 2020 2024 1/2024E/+2+1+2023 9+60%257+110%73 2+3 2025E 150 2025E 50-70 4 5 1 2/3 Optimus 2024E 1 2 3+EPS PE X 22A 23E 24E 22A 23E 24E LI.O 33.81 0.02 5.55 8.10 12172 44 30 000625.SZ 15.13 0.79 1.07 0.92 19 14 16 603596.SH 75.75 1.70 2.04 2.57 45 37 29 600660.SH 37.20 1.82 2.16 2.46 20 17 15 3606.HK 35.65 1.82 2.16 2.46 18 15 14 Wind 2023-10-31 1HKD=0.9332CNY 1USD=7.2CNY XVDWyRnQoNmNqOtQtOoRoP7NbP9PmOnNpNtQiNmNqRkPqQyQ9PqQwOvPrNtQwMnPmP 3 4 A/H Wind 2023/10/31 2023/1/1-2023/10/31 A 8.7%A vs.300/500 7.7%/5.7%9.1%7.8%2023/1/1-2023/10/31 H 8.4%H vs./13.5%/12.6%2023/10/31 A PE-TTM 31x 2020-1x PE-TTM 30 x 2020-1x PE-TTM 36x 2020-1x 2023/10/31 H PE-TTM 21x 2020+1x 2023 A+17.3%+1.3pcts 15.1%+19.6%ROE+0.6pcts 6.4%/+Wind 2023/10/31 2 2023/1/1-2023/10/31 H vs./1 2023/1/1-2023/10/31 A vs.300/500 5 A 2020-1x Wind 2023/10/31 2019 2020-Wind 2023/10/31 2019 2020-3 2019/1/2-2023/10/31 A PE-TTM 4 2019/1/2-2023/10/31 H PE-TTM 5 2019/1/2-2023/10/31 PE-TTM 6 2019/1/2-2023/10/31 PE-TTM Wind 2023/10/31 2019 2020-Wind 2023/10/31 2019 2020-6 Wind 3Q20 1Q21 1 2018-3Q23 A 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 13400.6 12682.1 11926.4 13583.4 15930.9 3691.7 4435.8 5027.6 YoY 4.2%-5.4%-6.0%13.9%17.3%5.0%45.5%13.6%550.6 359.5 312.5 383.2 459.9 142.3 126.25 199.50 YoY-12.0%-34.7%-13.1%22.6%20.0%6.0%30.5%32.7%14.3%12.8%12.0%10.9%13.0%13.3%13.3%15.8%11.0%6.9%5.8%6.3%6.9%2.1%1.9%2.9%5803.5 5995.5 6088.2 7136.6 7621.6 1847.7 2092.4 2218.0 YoY 11.9%3.3%1.5%17.2%6.8%1.2%29.7%9.4%350.1 305.1 317.3 339.6 298.2 82.5 116.4 125.2 YoY-13.7%-12.8%4.0%7.0%-12.2%-10.4%48.1%13.5%27.6%19.1%18.5%16.9%16.4%16.7%17.1%17.0%9.3%7.6%7.3%7.1%6.0%1.6%2.3%2.3%19204.1 18677.6 18014.6 20720.1 23552.5 5539.5 6528.3 7245.6 YoY 6.4%-2.7%-3.5%15.0%13.7%3.7%40.0%12.3%900.6 664.6 629.8 722.9 758.1 224.7 242.7 324.7 YoY-12.7%-26.2%-5.2%14.8%4.9%-0.7%38.4%24.6%18.3%14.8%14.2%13.0%14.1%14.4%14.5%16.2%10.3%7.2%6.4%6.7%6.5%1.9%2.0%2.6%7 Wind 2023/5/31 2023 1 5 A 2.7%A vs.500 3.1%H 4.2%H vs.7.8%1 3+A H 36x 22x 2020-1x 2020+1x 1+2023/5/15 7 2023/1/1-2023/5/31 A/H 8 2023/3-2023/5/SUV&8 Wind 2023/7/31 2023 6 7 A 16.7%A vs.500 0.6%/18.1%/17.9%H 20.9%H vs.10.2%6-7 AI+A H 40 x 27x 2020 2020+1x 1 2023/6 2 5 6 L3+BEV+Transformer 3 2Q23 A 9 2023/6/1-2023/7/31 A/H 9 Wind 2023/10/31 2023/8-A 3.6%A vs.500 9.4%0.5%4.4%H 19.3%H vs.14.5%+1+8+2 9 M7 3 3Q23 A+ASP/A H 31x 21x 2020-1x 2020 1 4Q23E 2023E+850-900 2 2024E+3 10 2023/8/1-2023/10/31 A/H 10 11 2022 2023 9 60.4%+109.6%73.4+6.7pcts 28.6%/34.0%/15.7%/47.7%/22.1%1 2+11 2022/1-2023/9&12 2023 9 13 2023 9 12 1 1950s 40%-50%+/2022 86.5%14 1950-2022 15 1975-2022+13 2 35%+50s+15%70s 80s+5%-10%90s 5%50-60s+1%-2%50s+/16 1966-2022 17 1997-2022 14 3 60s-70s 80s-90s 90s+2 50 1955 NA NA 1957 NA NA 60-70 1961 1 2 3 TQC 1963 1965 sports 800 1967 200GT 1970 Celica 1973 NA 80-90 1980 1&2 NUMMI 3 Vista Corolla TOYOPET TOYOTA NETZ 1981 Soarer 1982 1983 1983 1984 MR2 1986 Supra 1989 LS400 90 1992 1 90 2 2000 1997 2001 NA 2009 LFA 2011 NA 2012 NA 1000 1000 2014 NA Mirai 2015 TNGA DNGA 2050 2020 NA 2022 bZ4X 15 4 marklines 2022 17.5%14.2%+/5%/Yaris 1997 Yaris vs.1992 1994 Yaris Yaris Yaris+18 1997-2021 19 2013-2022 Yaris&2002 ACEA Autoevolution Yaris 2000 3 Yaris 5 4 1985 2(CAPTIN)1988 11(TMMC)RAV4 1988 5(TMMK)RAV4 HEV 1993 6(TMMMO)1998 11(TMMWV)1999 2(TMMI)HEV 2003 4(TMMAL)2006 11(TMMTX)HEV 2011 10(TMMMS)2021 9(MTM)2004 9(TMMBC)2019 12(TMMGT)1997 3 TASA Fortuner(SW4)1959 5 TDB Cross Yaris 2005 2(TMMCZ)Yaris Aygo X 2001 1(TMMP)Yaris Yaris Cross 2002 4(TMMP)1968 8 TCAP Land Cruiser 1994 9 TMMT C-HR 1992 8 TMUK+/90s+/16 17 6 5 1986 1 Sienta Town Ace 1998 5(TFAP)CVJ Axles 1998 7(FTET)1998 12(TTFC)2000 12(FTCC)2002 10(FTMC)IZOA bZ4X bZ3 2003 10(FTCF)RAV4 2004 12(FTEC)2005 1 GTE 2006 5(GTMC)C-HR HEV bZ4X 2014 7(TMCAP)2015 9 1999 12 TKM Innova Crysta Innova Hycross Fortuner 2002 7 TKAP 1970 5 TMMIN Innova Innova Zenix Fortuner Yaris Yaris Cross Veloz Calya 2003 12 P.T.ADM Avanza Rush Calya Agya Raize 2009 12 HMMI 1993 3 IMC Fortuner Yaris 1989 2 TMP Innova 1992 9 TAP CV joints 1964 2 TMT Cross Yaris Fortuner 1989 7 STM 1996 8 TMV Innova Fortuner Veloz Avanza 2022 9 TMY 18 1 1970s 30%-40%9 MAN+20 1957-2018 21 1957-2018+19 2 MAN+a+b 22 2006-2022 20 1CNY=20.22JPY 2021 2020/4-2021/3 1 2/3+23 2000-2023 ASP&24 2006-2022 ASP&2015-2016 21 2023/10/31 a PLUS/b 25 26 2023/1-2023/9/PLUS EV km 430/510 410/480 470 420 400/480 401/420 400/476 310/427 WLTP 410/490 kg 1625/1690 1680/1750 1750 1750 NA 1780/1825 1520/1680 1658 NA kW 150 150 150 150 150 70/130 70/150 70/150 70/150 N.m 310 310 310 310 310 180/290 180/310 180/310 180/310 kWh 49.9/60.5 49.9/60.5 58.56 60.48 50.1/60.4 44.928 44.9/58.56 44.9/60.4 44.9-60.5 kWh/100km 12.2/12.5 14.9 12 15.6 NA 10.5/11.3 12.9/13.8 15.2/15.9 NA marklines 6 PLUS 27 1H23 22 marklines 2025E 150 2025E 50-70/+/+CKD+SUV+/7 2022A-2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 10,058,335 9,887,216 9,582,418 9,023,958 2,292,213 2,807,343 3,492,978 4,443,700 18.6%22.1%26.7%33.0%11.00%12.0%13.0%14.0%0.2%0.6%1.3%2.3%252,143 336,881 454,087 622,118 4,367 16,480 45,509 103,136 1,206,949 1,191,773 1,123,527 1,021,088 38,971 91,525 198,269 340,363 3.1%7.1%15.0%25.0%15.1%28.0%35.0%40.0%9.7%20.0%23.0%25.0%5,885 25,627 69,394 136,145 3,797 18,305 45,602 85,091 3,392,579 3,418,046 3,418,046 3,385,502 35,555 112,932 251,406 469,704 1.0%3.2%6.9%12.2%29.7%50.0%55.0%60.0%1.0%25.0%28.0%30.0%10,560 56,466 138,273 281,822 342 28,233 70,394 140,911 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 4,348,289 4,446,940 4,418,598 4,251,497 12,114 44,276 207,354 513,233 0.3%1.0%4.5%10.8%35%55.0%60.0%63.0%4.1%25.0%28.0%30.0%4,204 24,352 124,412 323,337 494 11,069 58,059 153,970 6,507,447 6,641,578 6,671,835 6,546,409 135,295 200,447 375,450 712,295 2.0%2.9%5.3%9.8%15.5%25.0%30.0%35.0%2.8%10.0%12.0%14.0%20,971 50,112 112,635 249,303 3,740 20,045 45,054 99,721 25,513,599 25,585,552 25,214,423 24,228,454 2,514,148 3,256,523 4,525,457 6,479,295 9.0%11.3%15.2%21.1%11.7%15.2%19.9%24.9%0.5%2.9%5.8%9.0%293,762 493,438 898,802 1,612,725 12,740 94,132 264,618 582,828 23 24 AI+100 vs.500 10/2022 29 BEV+Transformer 8 Zhiqi Li Eye-View Representation from Multi-Camera Images via Spatiotemporal Transformers 2023 AI+1 L3 2 BEV+Transformer 1/2 3+AI BEV+Transformer 2D+CNN Transformer 2D BEV Queries 3D BEV AI 1 2 3 25 36 30 2016Software 1.0 2D+CNN cls reg640 480 1 640 480 4ResNet/RegNetRaw2018Autopilot 4.0 HydraNets 2D+CNN clsDecoder TrunkTask 1RegNet+BiFPNRawregTask 2attr cls regDecoder TrunkRadarMulti-Scale Features2021Software 2.0 BEV+Transformer clsDecoder TrunkTask 1RegNet+BiFPNRawregTask 2attr cls regDecoder TrunkMulti-ScaleFeaturesRaw RawRectify Rectify RectifyRegNet+BiFPNRegNet+BiFPNMulti-ScaleFeaturesMulti-ScaleFeaturesMulti-Camera Fusion&BEVTransformer2022FSD Beta Occupancy+Transformer clsDecoder TrunkTask 1RegNet+BiFPNRawregTask 2attr cls regDecoder TrunkMulti-ScaleFeaturesRaw RawRectify Rectify RectifyRegNet+BiFPNRegNet+BiFPNMulti-ScaleFeaturesMulti-ScaleFeaturesMulti-Camera Fusion&BEVTransformerVideo Features Queue/Video Module 2016 1 2018 2 2021 3 2021-2022 4+Dojo+1 HW4.0 Model 3 300-500TOPS Dojo 2024 100Exaflops vs./2 Occupancy+Transformer 2023/8 FSD Beta v12 3 1+2+26 31 1 ADS 2.0 GOD Occupancy+Transformer+2 MDC MDC 810 AI GPU 1.1 7nm ADS 2.0 vs.4Q23 45 27 32+/2024E 1 2024E Mona 2024E 2024-2025E 2+4Q23E-2024E 28 ADS2.0*8*1*12*11*3*12*1*11*5*12*2*11*1*12*1*11*5*12*1 HW4.0 144TOPS 610 200TOPS Orin 508TOPS Orin 508TOPS Orin 1,016TOPS A100 1.8exaflops Dojo 1.1 exaflops 7 Dojo 8exaflops AI 600pflops NVIDIA HGX A100 8-GPU NVIDIA Mellanox InfiniBand ConnectX-6 Petal Map NA+Occupancy+Transformer+GOD Occupancy+Transformer Xnet BEV+Transformer+Occupancy+Transformer+BEV+Transformer IT 2023/6/30 2022 9+L2/L2+L3=29 ADS2.0 64,000 EAP 32,000 ADS2.0 36,000 2023/6/1-12/31 18,000 7,200 720 6 ADS2.0 G9 G6 P7i Max 2 AD MAX 4 380 2023/6FSD Beta 3.06 NA 2022/6 NGP 62%2023/3/23 5.5 NOA 1 2023/4/25 100 8.2 NOP 3.1 NOP+2730 NOA FSD Beta 2Q23/3Q23 15 4Q23 45 2023 2023/6 2H23 2023/1 Beta 2023/7/1 NOA NGP NOA APA AVP VPA S-APA L2+L2+L2+L2+L2+79/107/84/19/9 298 70 1,000 90/153/154/76/39/6 518 152 65/169/128/112/24/11 509 154 64/115/135/39/15/1 369 98 IT 2023/6/30 2022 10 30+/+/1+2 50%2025E 11 33 Unboxed Assembly Process Model Y+ET5 ET7 ES7 ES6 EC6 G6+Mega M9 Sterra ES Sterra ET HiPhi Z 31 12/2020 9 Model Y Model Y 2021 5 Model Y 2021 12 ET5 2022 1 VISION EQXX 2022 2 HiPhi Z 2022 5-9000T 2022 8-2022 10-2022 11 009 7200T 2023 4 G6 2023 4 M9 2023 Mega 4Q23 Cybertruck 9,000T 2025 E 2026 Trinity 2026 32 34 13 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 650 875 1,094 1,313 5.61%6.45%9.45%12.45%36 56 103 163 10 17 30 45 0 0.43%3.00%6.00%0 4 33 79 0 0.76 6.30 14.52 0 0.06%1.00%3.00%0 1 11 39 0 0.5 10.5 36.3 10 18 47 96 2025E 96 2022-2025E cagr 111%1 0-1+2025 1 10 2 1-3+3-5/5+Model Y 33 35 36 2022 AI DAY Optimus 1 Optimus FSD 8 Autopilot 2+70%Optimus 2024E-2025E 34 35+1+10-20+30 30+/37 2018-2023 9 38 2018-2023 9 39 2023/10/31 36 2023/10/31 2+1+/2 2H23E+40 14 2H23E NOA XNGP 2H23E 2023 50 2024 200 NOA 100 NOA HUAWEI ADS2.0 NOH NOA NOA NOA 2023 36 37 15/2022 9 30 2 2023 3 31 865.41 220 50,000 2 NA/2023 3 29 5 5 NA NA 2021 10 11 2022 4 YLSQ HOLDINGS INC TDI 2022 4 2021 27,000 272,031,614 2 2023 2025 NA NA NA 2020 400 2021 2 6 2023 3 22 1 5,000 2023 400 2023/3 2025 2022 4 30 12 22 2,000 NA NA 2020/7/1 USMCA 2025 75%/IRA 2023/4/18 Cybertruck+38 16/2016 1H23 3,000 1.6 NA Cybertruck 2014 9 IKD FAEZA 2017 667 2022 2Q23 2023 4 1.8 180 NA 2020 7 30 2021 2 10 1.7 2022 360 5 1.7 NA 2020 1H22 3Q23 NA NA/2020 NA NA 2020/2017 675 Waldaschaff Automotive GmbH 2023 4 25 3,000 955 NA 2014 10 13 16.85 NA Model Y 2017 6 30 1 NA NA 2019 7 24 2458.8 NA NA 39 17/2018 2021 2021 12 NA NA Model3&Y 2020 Toledo Molding NA NA 2019 FYSAM SAM FYSAM NA NA 2018 Motus 2019 8 29 2 2022 10 27 8.23 NA 2022 30 60 2023/2013 2014 Quin GmbH Quin 2016 KSS NA Quin HMI KSS NA 2020 2021 1 13 2021 5 18 3,000 600 8,044 3,600 38,000 2022 25 170 NA 2016 8 2 1,400 NA NA*ST 2016 ARC NA NA NA 2017 7 3 9,340.12 NA NA 150 NA 2015 2022 8 16 7,000 3,000 HVAC PTC TOC NA/2017 Tristone Flowtech Holding S.A.S NA NA NA 40 18 IRA IRA 2022/8/16 2032 7,500/2032/12/31 2022/8/16 3,750/2025 2023/4/17 1.2.3.1.2.3.4.2024/1/1 40%2024 50%2025 60%2026 70%2026/12/31 80%3,750/2024 2024/1/1 50%2024/2025 60%2026 70%2027 80%2028 90%2028/12/31 100%20 2022/12/31 15 22.5 30/SUV/80,000 55,000 41 1/+7nm+2 Harmony OS 4.0+AI 119ms HUAWEI x HUD 3 ADS 2.0 GOD 9/12 M7 S7 M9 11 12+EOS EHS6 Pro 05 XC90 Kiwi R7 EUNIQ5 EUNIQ6 S 7 PLUS EV TBD TBD Q7 5 T7 M3 19 HI S HI 11 sf5 M5 M7 S7 42 43 LI.O 2Q23 Non-GAAP 2Q23 228.1%/52.5%286.5 0.3pcts/1.4pcts 21.8%Non-GAAP 92.3%27.1 1 2Q23 229.7%/52.6%279.7 ASP 9.3%/7.3%32.3 0.2pcts/1.2pcts 21.0%2 2Q23 9.1pcts/1.4pcts 8.5%SG&A 7.1pcts/0.7pcts 8.1%3 2Q23 Non-GAAP 16.8%3.1 vs.2Q22 Non-GAAP 5,590 96.2 2Q23 737.7 1 2/+3+2023/7/31 337 37 4Q23E 4Q23E 4 2023E/2024E/2025E Non-GAAP 115.8/169.0/267.0 L7/L8/L9 US$62.20+2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 27,010 45,287 119,334 154,965 217,179 185.6%67.7%163.5%29.9%40.1%780 41 11,578 16,896 26,697 NA-94.7%28173.6%45.9%58.0%EPS 0.41 0.02 5.55 8.10 12.80 ROE)1.9%0.1%18.6%20.5%23.7%P/E 8.4 5.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 P/B 5.5 5.3 4.1 3.1 2.3 Wind 2023-10-31 1=7.20 1 ADS 2 A-Class 2 2021/2022 18.5/19.4 2023E-2025E 20.9 44 000625.SZ 3Q23 2023+26.8%1082.1+43.2%98.8-5.9%36.1 3Q23+48.4%/+38.1%427.1+113.9%/+226.5%22.3+184.5%/+7421.0%21.0 2023-2.4pcts 17.9%3Q23-2.9pcts/+2.0pcts 18.4%3Q23-+61.3%/+1086.1%17 3Q23 1 2 2023 2.0 2.5 3Q23 3.8 3Q22/2Q23 3.3/1.2 1 3Q23-13.0%/+27.3%6.8+13.8%/+26.9%2.3 2 3Q23+34.2%0.7 11+7 5000+12 2023/11+1 S7 sl03 2 2024E+2 A/Q/E0 2023/9 2023/10 A07/A05 A06/Q05 E0 CD701 24E 2023-2025E 105.7/90.9/107.7 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 105,142 121,253 156,057 185,473 205,570 24.33%15.32%28.70%18.85%10.84%3,552 7,798 10,570 9,093 10,769-6.87%119.52%35.54%-13.97%18.43%EPS 0.47 0.79 1.07 0.92 1.09 ROE)6.37%12.41%14.87%11.89%12.81%P/E 32.5 19.2 14.2 16.5 13.9 P/B 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 Wind 2023-10-31 2021 76.32 2022 99.22 2023 99.19 45 600660.SH 3606.HK 3Q23+16.6%238.3+5.8%41.26 3Q23-15.1%/-32.9%12.9 3Q23 3Q23+35.9%/+23.6%3Q23 15.1%19.1%10.4%vs.1H23 5.5%3Q23+1.4pcts/+1.3pcts 36.3%+3Q23-0.4pcts/+0.1pcts 15.9%1+2/HUD ADAS/+ASP ASP ASP 10%3 ASP+A H 2023E/2024E/2025E 56.4/64.1/74.2 A/H 53.74/46.35 A H/SAM Wind A/H 2023-10-31 1HKD=0.9332CNY 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 23,603 28,099 32,568 38,141 44,489 18.57%19.05%15.90%17.11%16.64%3,146 4,756 5,644 6,410 7,423 20.97%51.16%18.68%13.57%15.81%EPS 1.21 1.82 2.16 2.46 2.84 ROE)11.96%16.40%17.98%18.94%20.18%P/E 31 20 17 15 13 P/E H 28 18 15 14 12 46 603596.SH 38.6%51.1 24.4%5.9 3Q23 28.1%20.1 0.82pcts/0.14pcts 22.6%21.1%2.4 75.5%28.3%14.4%1 EPB/ESC one box ADAS 2/3/+1 2023/6 50 2H23E 2024 2 ADAS 7 42 9 3 ADAS WCBS 2.0 1H24E EMB DP-EPS R-EPS 1+2 2023E/2024E/2025E 8.9/11.2/14.1+2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 3,492 5,539 7,537 9,713 11,338 14.81%58.61%36.07%28.87%16.72%505 699 886 1,116 1,407 9.33%38.49%26.85%25.96%26.03%EPS 1.24 1.70 2.04 2.57 3.24 ROE)14.43%16.59%17.75%18.36%19.04%P/E 61 45 37 29 23 P/B 8.9 7.4 6.6 5.4 4.4 Wind 2023-10-31 47 +/+/48 CFA S0930515090002 021-52523876 021-52523685 鹏华基金 6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%15%6-12 15%A 300 500 1996 500