2023 2022 11 16 S0790522080008 1.2.2023 2022 3.4.&5.1 47目 录CONTENTS 5 3 26 81.1 Wind 2022 11 8 A 10.3%13.1%300-23.75%30 30 11.8%2.8%300 1.83%11 1 2 30 Wind 2022 11 8 A 11.8%2.8%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%-10.3%-13.1%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%1.2 19.0%9.4%7.4%3.6%-2.4%-5.4%-18.8%-18.8%-25.3%30 24.0%16.7%13.3%12.7%9.5%8.3%8.0%5.2%4.6%3 4 30 19.0%9.4%7.4%3.6%-2.4%-5.4%-18.8%-18.8%-25.3%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%24.0%16.7%13.3%12.7%9.5%8.3%8.0%5.2%4.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Wind 2022 11 8 A Wind 2022 11 8 A1.3 2022Q3 Wind 2022Q3 178 0.7%2021Q1-0.13%2022Q30.48%5 2022 1 2022Q3 Wind 300896.SZ 98.79 22.75%168-30300957.SZ 42.19 11.29%68 17603605.SH 24.09 5.25%50 33300856.SZ 8.05 21.84%36 26688363.SH 3.39 2.69%24 14600315.SH 0.73 0.38%6-8001206.SZ 0.22 1.23%5 5002919.SZ 0.17 0.36%1 1002612.SZ 0.13 0.24%2 1300888.SZ 0.11 0.11%3 1-0.13%0.39%0.48%-0.2%-0.1%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%020406080100120140160180200%1.4 2022Q3 Wind 2022Q3 528 3.2%2021Q1 2.0%2022Q3 0.0%0.2pct 6 8 6 2020Q4 2 2022Q3 Wind 601888.SH 226.21 5.84%350-10600754.SH 70.86 13.45%106 6600258.SH 28.49 12.44%60 2300144.SZ 10.64 3.88%16-9600859.SH 10.44 4.38%11 6300662.SZ 2.92 4.39%13 1301073.SZ 1.99 7.31%10-8002159.SZ 0.90 5.95%5 0600138.SH 0.62 0.79%13-7300795.SZ 0.42 4.67%3 12.0%0.2%0.0%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%01002003004005006007008009002020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3%2.1 2022 8 2021 7 2017-2030E 2015-2020 637 1,549 2025 3,500 2021 6 33.3%2018 2021 6 2022 3 III NMPA 62 37 2021 Frost&Sullivan 9 2021-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0100200300400,77%,23%,48%,52%Frost&Sullivan 2.2 21 2016-2023E 20 2013-2021()2013-2021 CAGR 4.7%2.3%0.69%0.9%2021 1859 43%2023 45%2018 2021 2022H1/81/80%11 11 11 11/11 2/6/8 5.2%/4.4%/2.3%85498211421404157618592175252737%38%39%40%42%43%44%45%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500100015002000250030002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E2023E 1353 1531 1721 1861 2171 2219 2522 2996 3410 0.69%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.9%0.9%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%010002000300040002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2.3 Wind 23 22 1 2021 136 3.1%2 Frost&Sullivan 2020 82.4/47.9/42.8 20.8 1 618 11 2 050000100000150000200000250000 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q30%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 Wind 2.4 25 2022 24 2022Q3 8%45%26 27 26 0%5%10%15%0%20%40%60%0%20%40%60%80%78%84%67%76%78%77%76%75%78%76%77%40%60%80%100%2.5 Wind 2022+98.29%2023 2022 90.82/yoy+7.75%11.47/yoy+98.29%2022 84%2022Q3 19.3%/yoy+4.77pct 2018 23.46%2022H1 44%2023 TOP3 2021 11 2022 10 122.5%2022H1 2023 28 2022 29 12.60%10.94%14.53%21.36%18.60%20.48%19.30%5.34%5.05%9.14%9.95%8.36%15.38%13.68%0%5%10%15%20%25%2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3-100%0%100%200%300%0102030402021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 yoy yoy 30 2022 1380630724050001000015000200002500030000350002020.11-2021.10 2021.11-2022.10 Wind 2.5 Wind 2022 2022 12.49/yoy+68%2.54/yoy+127.42%Q3 4.29/yoy+82.53%1.73/yoy+324.77%2022Q3 39.2%/yoy+15.4pct DHHB+OCT 31 32 2022Q1-Q3 35.9%26.1%33.3%31.9%23.8%20.2%26.3%34.0%39.2%13.0%18.1%18.5%15.4%10.8%6.1%14.1%21.8%25.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 Wind-14.1%-18.9%-14.3%-6.2%21.5%40.5%59.6%63.0%82.5%-25.4%-14.1%1.9%-17.1%0.5%-52.8%21.0%130.6%324.8%-100%0%100%200%300%400%012345(yoy yoy 2.5 5500 3000 4300 2000/25,000t/a A VB 2000 8000 2000 1500 150025000t/a 1500 1500 14200t/a 1000 2021 12 2500 DHHB 500 2022 500-P-S 5002022 5 2022 12 2022 3 2022 12 3 4 3.1 5 20 7+3 5+3 5 5 1 7+3 5+3 2 7 7 3 7+3 5+3 4 5 7 7 5 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 48 2 48 1 1 3.2 2022 5 9 21.2 72%1 6 29 7+3”2 10 25 3 10 30 2022/2023 840 105.9%4 11 1 Wind 33 2022 4-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%05101520252020-42020-52020-62020-72020-82020-92020-102020-112020-122021-12021-22021-32021-42021-52021-62021-72021-82021-92021-102021-112021-122022-12022-22022-32022-42022-52022-62022-72022-82022-9,%3.3 UNWTO 35 20192022 2021H1 UNWTO 2022 1-7 474 2021 2019 57%2022 6 7 2.07 2021 2 2022 7 44%2022 UNWTO 2022 7 2019 92%68%2019 83%72%92%68%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020 1 2020 3 2020 5 2020 7 2020 9 2020 11 2021 1 2021 3 2021 5 2021 7 2021 9 2021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7 全球-国内航 班客座 量恢复 全球-国际航 线客座 量恢复-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%2020 1 2020 3 2020 5 2020 7 2020 9 2020 11 2021 1 2021 3 2021 5 2021 7 2021 9 2021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7 较2019 年同期恢 复度 34 2022 2019 UNWTO 3.4 37 2019 2019 83%2022 2019 90%40%2022 2019 73%2019 95%72%95%83%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020 1 2020 3 2020 5 2020 7 2020 9 2020 11 2021 1 2021 3 2021 5 2021 7 2021 9 2021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7-90%73%95%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 36 2019 UNWTO 3.5 Wind 7 2019 104%2019 82%2022 1-6 60%2019 90%1 29%4 67.2%72%104%82%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020 1 2020 3 2020 5 2020 7 2020 9 2020 11 2021 1 2021 3 2021 5 2021 7 2021 9 2021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7-89.1%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020,000,00040,000,00060,000,00080,000,000100,000,000120,000,000140,000,0002019 1 2019 4 2019 7 2019 10 2020 1 2020 4 2020 7 2020 10 2021 1 2021 4 2021 7 2021 10 2022 1 2022 4 2019 38 2019 UNWTO 39 2022 3.6 Wind 6/7 2019 86%2019 37%2021 6%2022 4 2022 6 7 21%25%2022 10 4 72%/2022 4 26 0.1%2022 5 15 0.4%2022 6 8 0.1%2022 7 1 72 0.7%2022 9 26 0+3”2.4%2022 10 11 0.2%2022 10 13 0+7”0.2%86%37%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020 1 2020 3 2020 5 2020 7 2020 9 2020 11 2021 1 2021 3 2021 5 2021 7 2021 9 2021 11 2022 1 2022 3 2022 5 2022 7-40 2019 UNWTO 4.1 2020-2021 2019 2022 1-9 3164 2019 68.1%2023 2019 1995-2009 41 2019 42 0501001502002503002019-12019-32019-52019-72019-92019-112020-12020-32020-52020-72020-92020-112021-12021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-12022-32022-52022-72022-9 0501001502002503003502019-12019-32019-52019-72019-92019-112020-12020-32020-52020-72020-92020-112021-12021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-12022-32022-52022-72022-9 Q3 34%V 4.2 2022 3 2022 9 3 9.4 9 52.5 11 2022/2023 840 105.9%6148 6.7%43 2020 52 132/42112 42108 7-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%01002003004005006007002019-12019-32019-52019-72019-92019-112020-12020-32020-52020-72020-92020-112021-12021-32021-52021-72021-92021-112022-12022-32022-52022-72022-9 4.3 Q3 2020 Q3 40 Q3 34%2022Q3 117-16.17%6.9-78%44 2022Q3 45 2022Q3 9.1622.3431.326.9-5051015202530352019 2020 2021 2022Q1()Q2()Q3()Q4()112.40158.29139.73117.140204060801001201401601802002019 2020 2021 2022Q1()Q2()Q3()Q4()4.4 7 2,2023 2024 46 47 4.5 2400 2022H1 2200 DUTYZERO 5 SKU 10.25 2023 1 48 2023 1 49 DUTYZERO 5.1 Smith Travel Research 2022 1-10 2021 2019 Q3 8 50 2019 2022 2022 2021 5.2 Smith Travel Research Q3 2022 Q2 Q3 8 9 11 51 2022 1-10 2022 5.3 Smith Travel Research 2019 2022 2019 2021 ADR 2019 52 2019 5.4 RevPAR ADR 2022 Q3 RevPAR 193/135.95/116+9.1%/-2.3%/-5.9%ADR 254/227.23/192+3.1%/+3.2/-4%2022 8 RevPAR 53 RevPAR 54 ADR 2019 050100150200250Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019 2020 2021 2022(/(/(/050100150200250300Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019 2020 2021 2022(/(/(/5.5 2022 Q3 OCC 76%61%62%2022 Q2 2021 OxfordEconomics Smith Travel Research 2022 2019 55 2022 Q3 56 2022 2019%0%20%40%60%80%100%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019 2020 2021 2022(%)(%)(%)66%66%44%57.60%63.40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E:Oxford Economics Smith Travel Research 5.62022 Q3 2022 Q3 2019 7 2021 2019 Q3 1.6/yoy+73.54%,5290/-11.64%57 2022 Q3 2019 7%58 2022 Q3 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32020 2021 2022-15-10-50510Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019 2020 2021 2022 5.7 Q3 2019 2022 3 4-21%2019-23%6 2019 4 2019-6%2021-24%2022 7/8/9 2019 123%/119%/121%59 2022 9 2019-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01000200030004000500060002 4 6 8 10 12 3 5 7 9 11 2 4 6 8 10 12 3 5 7 92019 2020 2021 2022:():(%)2019(%)-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0200400600800100012002 4 6 8 10 12 3 5 7 9 11 2 4 6 8 10 12 3 5 7 92019 2020 2021 2022()2019(%)(%)60 2022 9 2019 121%5.8 2022 Q3 Q2 2019 64 2022%65 2022 Q3%0%50%100%150%200%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32020 2021 2022-100-50050100Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019 2020 2021 2022-100-50050100Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019 2020 2021 2022-50510Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32019 2020 2021 2022 62 2022Q3 2019 155%63 2022 Q3%6.1 2018 0.7%2022 10 8.6%2023 10%80%2017 Diama 2018 Lightbox 2019 Signet 2022 LVMH Gucci 12 1 LUSANT 2 3 Venti 4 5 DEINO GJEPC 66 2022 10 8.6%8.6%0%2%4%6%8%10%0510152025302019.82019.92019.102019.112019.122020.12020.22020.32020.42020.52020.62020.72020.82020.92020.102020.112020.122021.12021.22021.32021.42021.52021.62021.72021.82021.92021.102021.112021.122022.12022.22022.32022.42022.52022.62022.72022.82022.92022.10%,6.2+Homelife Machinex 2020 2021 8 2022 3 51%60%IP 2020 O2O M ax”M et a”2022Q1-Q3 9 2022Q4 7 2023 24+2022Q1-Q3 1.39/yoy+45.7%-0.13 68.8%Q3 0.44/yoy+45.3%0.02/yoy+112.2%2022Q3 0.37+1364.5%1.5 67-250%-200%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%-1000100200300400500()yoy yoy 37 68 54 67 64 59 82 73 98 101 151 020406080100120140160 68 2022Q3 1.5 7 2022 Q2 Q3 2025 7 Wind Wind 8 11 15 EPS PE 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E601888.SH 1913.72 6.53 6.53 50.3 28.7 21.9 9869.HK 11.320.01 0.39 0.39 806.2 26.4 15.8 9922.HK 16.040.14 0.26 0.40 106.1 55.6 35.9 001308.SZ 38.223.06 4.11 5.26 12.8 9.5 7.4 300856.SZ 54.271.93 2.37 2.37 27.6 22.5 18.5 000519.SZ 22.90.82 1.15 1.15 28.0 19.9 15.1 600172.SH 5.820.21 0.39 0.39 26.4 14.2 10.5 688028.SH 37.420.69 1.42 1.42 52.2 25.5 16.6 002046.SZ 12.350.47 0.65 0.65 25.8 18.7 14.4 688363.SH 111.752.14 2.79 3.59 68.1 52.1 140.8 300896.SZ 4816.47 9.52 13.31 86.7 59.0 543.3 603605.SH 169.792.62 3.33 4.15 62.1 48.9 158.5 300957.SZ 145.112.76 3.68 4.81 68.3 51.2 174.8 600754.SH 53.180.16 1.53 1.53 325.8 34.6 24.9 600258.SH 22.96-0.18 0.75 0.75-123.2 29.8 20.8 600916.SH 12.12 0.54 0.69 0.69 22.0 17.4 14.2 300795.SZ 37 0.21 1.09 1.99 176.1 33.8 18.6 8 612 A 300 500 buy 20%outperform 5%20%Neutral 5%5%underperform 5%overweight Neutral underperform 2017 7 1 R4 C4 C5 C4 C5 1788 1 10 18 C2 16 2030 1 45 1 B 5 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告