20231106_华创证券_环保行业证券研究报告:增收不增利现象改善关注Q4估值切换机会_29页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 11 06 2023Q3 Q4 300 2023 300 7-8 300 2023 11 3 300 2.22%2017 2023 132 2368.24 3.12%232.01 0.96%57 47 2023Q3 5 2023 Q2 4 2 2 4 2023Q3 76.7 9.0%5.10/2.48 39 3858.1 2023 14 1685.03 1 2 2023 CCER Q4 24 5 EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 16.10 1.32 1.43 1.49 12.20 11.28 10.84 1.32 8.54 0.98 1.19 1.28 8.71 7.19 6.69 1.19 17.97 1.73 2.04 2.18 10.38 8.81 8.26 1.21 18.16 1.20 1.66 1.97 15.14 10.95 9.22 2.77 2.75 0.23 0.25 0.28 11.83 10.90 9.81 0.76 7.85 0.78 0.96 10.11 8.22 1.52 17.91 0.53 0.90 1.26 33.49 19.91 14.19 2.35 18.53 0.53 0.94 1.27 35.03 19.74 14.54 2.68 8.19 0.33 0.54 0.67 24.46 15.18 12.20 1.98 6.08 0.57 0.81 1.09 10.63 7.50 5.58 1.77 39.41 3.02 4.60 5.90 13.06 8.57 6.68 1.59 8.84 0.77 0.87 1.02 11.53 10.14 8.64 1.82 Wind 2023 11 3 010-63214656 S0360518070002%()153 0.02()9,375.72 1.06()7,468.99 1.09%1M 6M 12M-1.8%-2.6%-1.2%1.1%8.4%0.5%2023 39 2023-10-30 CCER 2023-10-25 2023 38 2022 2023-10-22-10%-3%4%12%22/11 23/01 23/03 23/06 23/08 23/102022-11-042023-11-03 300 2023Q3 2009 1210 2 23Q1-Q3.5 300.5.5.7.8.9.11.13.14.16.16.19.19/.21.23.24.26.26 1ZFUxOmRoNpOqOmPsPqPqR7N9RbRoMmMsQpMfQrQrQlOrRsN6MoOyQxNnOyRMYqRmO 2023Q3 2009 1210 3 1 2023 300.5 2 PE TTM.5 3 2023Q1-Q3.6 4 2023 Q1-Q3.6 5 2023 Q1-Q3.6 6 2023 Q1-Q3.6 7 2023 Q1-Q3.6 8 2023 Q1-Q3.6 9 132.7 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.9 14.9 15.10 16.10 17.10 18.10 19.11 20.12 21.12 22.12 23.12 24.13 25.13 26.13 27.14 28.14 29.14 30.15 31.15 32.15 33.15 2023Q3 2009 1210 4 34.16 35().16 36.17 37.17 38.17 39 2676.17 40 2022.18 41 2018-2022.18 42.18 43 2022.18 44 2013-2022.20 45 100%.20 46.20 47 2019-2022.20 48 10.21 49 2022.21 50 10.22 51 10.22 52 10.23 53 10.23 54 UCO.24 55 UCO/.24 56.24 57/.24 58 2023Q2.25 59 2023Q3.25 60 2023Q3.25 61 2023Q3%.25 62 2023Q3.26 63 2023Q3.26 2023Q3 2009 1210 5 23Q1-Q3 300 2023 300 7-8 300 2023 11 3 300 2.22%2017 1 2023 300 2 PE TTM Wind Wind 132 112 1 2023 3.12%2368.24 2 2023 0.96%232.01 2023 195.04 3.41%3 2023 1.33pct 26.93%0.62pct 10.41%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%300 0102030405060()801970.SI 2023Q3 2009 1210 6 3 2023Q1-Q3 4 2023 Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 5 2023 Q1-Q3 6 2023 Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 2023 2.36%2022 0.03 6.45%2022 0.05 4.12%2022 0.26 2022 0.06pct 57.06%7 2023 Q1-Q3 8 2023 Q1-Q3 Wind Wind 985 1,336 1,626 2,031 2,464 3,200 3,330 2,368 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500 143 186 120 149 204 253 245 232-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%050100150200250300 127 168 100 135 171 184 167 195-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%050100150200250 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%46.00%48.00%50.00%52.00%54.00%56.00%58.00%60.00%62.00%2023Q3 2009 1210 7 132 112 5 9 132*ST ST*ST ST 2023Q3 2009 1210 8 2023 2023 64.68 2022 66.41%38.71%1.71 4.5pct/1.3pct 18.57%/2.52%10 11 Wind Wind-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0300.0350.0400.0-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%-5.00.05.010.015.020.0 2023Q3 2009 1210 9 12 13 Wind Wind 14 Wind-2023 Q1-Q3 2023 Q1-Q3 2023 Q1-Q3 0.68%115.76%0.89 2023 Q1-Q3 56.95%352.85%2023 2023 880.59 2022 11.90%1.29%114.33 1.8pct/2.7pct 31.0%/14.0%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.0-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2023Q3 2009 1210 10 15 16 Wind Wind 17 18 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.0-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%2023Q3 2009 1210 11 19 Wind-2023 Q1-Q3 2023 Q1-Q3 5.55%57.13 14.85%8.88 2023 Q1-Q3 32.25%0.55pct 17.65%1.00pct 2023 14.15 12.67%7.03%60.74%2022 2023 2023 806.96 2022 11.8%11.5%90.46 25.1%/11.7%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 000544.SZ 5.19 69.40 11.01 185.64 1.24 23.99 28.53 12.13 6.78 2.54-15.74 104.46 000598.SZ 11.48 16.31-0.61 25.36 13.33 15.16 10.30 9.44 20.08 15.10 8.26 8.35 000605.SZ-5.79 21.18-1.63-3.97-3.25 1.55-47.07-38.29-45.35-43.34 36.39-4.34 000685.SZ 25.26 9.79 22.15 8.58 52.67 78.13-35.66 52.43 31.38 6.61-26.85 21.43 002573.SZ-0.16-17.43 4.05 66.87 16.75 9.31-19.45-27.63-44.72 170.54-21.43-28.90 003039.SZ 20.63 40.11-24.89 8.42-1.38 9.13 73.42 19.54 13.68 2.02-12.83 2.55 300055.SZ-36.06-36.56-21.52 218.43 35.25 19.32-129.71 182.58-602.57 156.54-63.00-58.35 300070.SZ-16.34 6.40 1.43-0.72-9.00 1.24-50.41 10.94-17.20-48.93 21.36 1,728.23 300172.SZ 17.33 13.59-45.82-4.94 17.04-6.93 3.46 16.91 23.85-39.80-28.45 10.54 300262.SZ 21.33-28.29 18.09-68.25 93.52 6.29-14.35-93.29-5,803.88-177.23 70.38 55.41 300266.SZ-23.60-10.47-2.68-4.59-42.02-26.73-450.76 102.79-1,592.43 93.19-1,432.28-124.54 300334.SZ 8.41-24.77-7.21-5.81-48.28-29.95 117.81-7,125.95 89.50 132.35-752.60 65.19 300388.SZ 52.44 4.08 11.28 15.71-8.44-1.51 44.61 16.25 1.55 10.62 10.43-5.12 300422.SZ 85.49 19.07-27.55-26.15-16.57-19.27 60.37 20.05-30.95-364.36 12.96 113.84 300437.SZ 103.55-0.25 9.91 32.37 10.18-40.21 118.10-53.33-423.63 124.14-148.79-107.48 300664.SZ-4.45 150.52 45.32-1.50-10.10-8.94-23.29 72.31 33.06-19.25-25.21 7.97 300692.SZ 67.78 67.59 21.97 22.67 20.57-33.96 19.25 60.66 62.43 27.99 2.83-33.17 300774.SZ 2.15 18.96-27.41 22.78 17.71-3.13 23.26 17.67 25.18 16.75-81.11 7.22 300899.SZ 64.73 32.59 6.20 20.42-32.40-20.91 49.14 38.23-25.25 9.54-43.05-44.89 300929.SZ 55.51 5.27 0.23 8.03-32.29-13.32 133.67 14.16 2.17 1.06-40.17-59.75 300961.SZ 48.63 42.74 21.85-2.94-9.36-10.89 42.66 42.04-3.68-57.77-103.12-246.20 301127.SZ 90.46 71.23 3.76 38.19 67.41 43.60 253.06 145.95 60.31 10.29 26.18 54.66 301148.SZ 104.94 92.59 25.46 13.00 11.97-23.88 118.16 117.89-20.85 1.39-28.30-22.51 301203.SZ 16.83 74.42 3.28-27.54 10.80-14.85 13.20 138.57 74.15-23.72 5.47 3.53 301372.SZ-2.09 13.02 60.32 49.58-8.55-12.88-23.31 0.13 101.61 29.85-6.18-29.88 301519.SZ 47.42 36.20 28.96 22.23 16.46 10.23 17.01 47.15 62.66 11.52 3.19 0.53 600008.SH 34.14 19.69 7.46 15.65-0.34-7.03 17.55 33.22 53.42 55.58 37.87-60.74 600168.SH 16.02 5.38-29.51 22.41 43.84 15.67-14.64-7.26 4.44 52.82-98.95 222.59 600187.SH 6.41 14.93 11.93 1.42-25.20-22.14-41.69 89.85 54.72-396.46-27.89 149.02 600283.SH 8.81 10.03 22.68 16.99 18.77 17.36-20.13-25.55 221.11 8.76 14.37 26.67 600461.SH 23.52 22.92 32.34 23.83-4.87 5.55 22.64 45.45 35.84 23.52 15.31 14.85 600769.SH-36.08-37.91 12.97 72.77-3.43 39.50-0.48-39.44 71.46 30.89 54.11 35.92 600796.SH-5.31-14.10 17.97 372.75-1.09-1.19-208.86 142.96-73.22 2,780.14 39.28 7.41 600874.SH 13.93 16.50 12.61 34.83-0.30 0.86-1.39 1.19 12.41 21.60 8.38 4.47 601158.SH 15.64 9.04-3.89 14.22 7.26 6.68-31.23 17.14 6.52 17.13-8.11-14.30 601199.SH-18.39 10.37 1.32 16.83 13.87 15.38-20.49 20.55 3.89 13.29 1.45 29.30 601368.SH 7.44 13.95-9.17 34.89 8.31 2.80-19.99-5.98-5.62 18.93-44.40-17.50 603200.SH 37.45 41.10 16.33 5.63 8.04-18.95 39.25-49.23-14.16 17.58 3.02-28.89 603291.SH 0.00 24.94-33.53 30.50 11.18 4.47 0.00 14.34-13.47 18.66-7.73 28.69 603603.SH 42.35-33.37 24.84-40.25-41.74-21.89-8.50-489.74 40.57-183.71 231.44 114.15 603759.SH 3.38 7.56 23.66 27.42 9.58 10.49 60.94 29.49 12.69 22.30-0.16 8.11 603797.SH 36.17 94.11 14.40 30.05 25.04 40.11 13.79 139.31 35.56 27.21-11.79-9.58 603817.SH 38.38 32.76 21.56 21.39 17.43 0.19 17.34 11.58-0.08 12.62 1.01 21.58 603903.SH 95.36 29.28 5.18-10.02-1.83 3.09 48.95 19.94 23.87 19.30-26.73 18.90 605081.SH 18.74 63.11 24.81-17.80-55.37-28.06 39.44 51.10 9.26-43.72-280.26-445.04 688057.SH 59.62 6.61 65.52-6.00-13.33-22.99 84.40 4.97 50.09-0.94-20.71-37.90 688069.SH 74.98 43.02 8.61 0.02-8.68-48.85 162.87 25.16 91.96-43.56-48.14-133.50 688096.SH 52.51 27.91 18.12 19.99 21.84-6.57 84.42 14.45 1.49-9.39-6.55-39.70 688101.SH 0.68 25.78-17.55 31.29 9.42 27.97-2.11 52.58-19.83 11.41-11.82-5.39 688156.SH-16.26 34.73 9.41 52.56-10.45 0.75-14.43 140.88 8.36 58.23-65.68 13.26 688335.SH 107.10 82.01 10.44-16.70 152.21-28.57 425.55 93.94 4.03-3.27 78.63-67.35 688466.SH 52.98 25.47-18.79 0.41 19.91 26.75 88.95 11.58-4.14-13.03 23.27 70.79 688565.SH 44.48 8.28 17.65 16.90-35.79 1.51 85.94 10.69-15.54-69.07-366.53-837.89 水务及水治理 2023Q3 2009 1210 12 20 21 Wind Wind 22 23 Wind Wind-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.0-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%2023Q3 2009 1210 13 24 Wind-2023 Q1-Q3 23Q1-Q3 13.74 14.35%Q3+55.49%4.03 22.85%63.84%35.29%+3.5/6.2pct 11.66 34.53%1.40 2.2 2023 2023 100.25 13.8%5.37 2022 101%2.64pct 4.59pct 1058.6%25 26 Wind Wind 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 000035.SZ 14.58 906.40-89.75-5.83-67.43-2.89-2.60 229.34-8.33 11.54-83.06 158.90 000820.SZ-98.50 25.84 23.55 7,127.41 30.43 44.64-811.87-190.31 82.13 648.13-100.80-468.72 001230.SZ 0.00 46.16 49.63 11.76-7.83 12.14 0.00 92.71 171.51 17.65-29.89 9.80 002034.SZ-40.47 35.69-21.52 74.75 12.87 3.06 30.44 34.32 26.93 24.10 11.39-4.35 002210.SZ-33.13-99.24 670.07 7.99 33.20 69.76-821.64-458.22 167.19-99.94 1,697.48 136.38 002266.SZ 0.70-1.83-4.15 69.42 18.71 20.57 26.94 46.87 744.24 69.74-36.56-5.41 002672.SZ 5.95 5.31 28.87 21.12-3.41 4.86-13.83 3.93-28.49-46.98-412.17-295.50 002973.SZ 32.77 39.30 11.76 17.77 18.70 2.16 14.39 27.94 186.03-32.08 23.30 26.92 300614.SZ 37.96 47.85-5.80-3.74-10.89-9.86 59.58 31.16 3.01-12.70-65.43-62.82 300779.SZ 28.98-0.02 20.05-12.04 27.51 223.80 27.00-32.77-36.97-56.49-78.96 1,503.55 300815.SZ 30.87 27.63 0.66 12.01 11.58 13.45 18.21 71.46 101.75-25.12 4.61 20.54 300854.SZ 25.05 74.26 16.37 1.50 3.43 5.26 62.94 47.13 23.51 2.82-72.36-38.40 300867.SZ 70.39 22.17 19.22 122.08-23.70-9.97 229.31 3.49 39.70 55.27-61.79-17.01 301049.SZ 40.89 8.52 6.80-26.44-6.69 22.79 113.25-22.00 70.71-39.49-125.24-855.04 301068.SZ 35.47 36.40 10.59 10.32 51.67 19.19 71.88-5.02 27.87-34.82 7.09-3.02 301109.SZ 72.16 18.35 13.61 86.55-23.56 14.35 54.97 19.64 30.33 5.76 6.13 22.85 301175.SZ 37.99 13.08-2.35 119.93 5.76-4.75 300.71 45.86 38.08 29.67 22.98 18.43 301265.SZ 72.75 38.20 43.29 37.26-3.77-4.56 86.48 50.05 53.77 18.56-28.58-15.74 301305.SZ 0.00 46.83 1.80 44.12 12.35-8.95 0.00 282.92 83.15 48.31 6.34-32.92 600217.SH 34.12 4.32 21.45 4.16-9.97 7.57 45.29 27.11 2.15-24.68-79.39-15.97 600323.SH 15.38 27.05 23.72 57.41 9.33-6.74 34.23 4.24 15.87 10.01-1.46 34.53 601200.SH 0.66 41.19 29.97 57.41-11.50 6.49 14.21 6.65 1.48 9.77-24.32 4.10 601330.SH 34.43 66.10 12.95 122.03-9.69-9.67 32.11 52.54 20.98 38.62 6.73-9.27 601827.SH 15.58 27.13 14.25 19.16 2.54 6.52 13.53 7.81 30.24 71.78-8.00 14.47 603126.SH 11.26 21.32 53.25 13.24 9.47 6.05-2.50-5.15 9.46 3.78 12.17-22.07 603568.SH 50.29 31.73 34.51 34.00 6.23 39.82 46.01 31.67 29.02 22.13 7.67 25.98 603588.SH 63.20 34.90 3.08 14.65 12.11 21.00 69.12 26.92 33.51 32.03-4.65 9.13 688178.SH 74.33 57.09 9.77 31.33-17.91 2.04 11.58 59.99 1.50-42.54-69.22-60.95 688370.SH 0.00 1,689.98 10.30-0.42 9.97-11.34 0.00 2.57 4.04-18.23-7.56-26.31 688679.SH 41.20 29.67-27.81 12.75 32.67 22.42 240.65 51.61 4.46-44.56-9.18-21.89 固废-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.0 2023Q3 2009 1210 14 27 28 Wind Wind 29 Wind-2023 Q1-Q3 2023 2022 2023 515.77 7.75%5.77%30.88 0.33pct 1.00pct-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%-60.0-50.0-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.0-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%2023Q3 2009 1210 15 30 31 Wind Wind 32 33 Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.0-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.0 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%2023Q3 2009 1210 16 34 Wind-2023 Q1-Q3 2013-2019 1163.80 2844.81 10%2020 2022 2430.5 3.58%35()2022 2022 1081814/311052 5%/4%2022 193654-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.00500.001,000.001,500.002,000.002,500.003,000.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 2009 1210 17 5%61610 5%36 37 2022 2022 2013 126552/35096 2022 341628/85856 2022 8583 8.19%38 2022 2676 2022 139.29 3.12 25.53 2675.56 39 2676 2022 139.29/14 2022 1,950.01 2022 3.12/110-5%0%5%10%15%20%0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 2009 1210 18 2022 342.65 2022 25.53/15 2022 382.90 2022 2,675.56 2022 2022 2022 2,510 16.0%2022 823 14.9%40 2022 41 2018-2022 2018-2022 2022 CR6 15.1%CR6 7.7%10%37.45%42 43 2022 Wind-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%1,9002,0002,1002,2002,3002,4002,5002,6002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005006007008009002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022CR6 CR6-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2023Q3 2009 1210 19 2023 2 3 1&2023 2025 80%2&10 6 2 3 4 2021-2035 1.2.2023-2025 2019 10.98 2019 3013 2.75%2020 2022 4916 5.87%2021-2035 2025 20%80%2022 2020 15 2022 2022 2.44 2019 2.42 10 2022 82.99%2023Q3 2009 1210 20 44 2013-2022 2022 99.89%2022 2.4445 2.4419 100%1.95 79.86%3043.20 12.46%2022 105.71/80.47/72.53%2021 71.95/11.83%45 100%46 Wind Wind 2022 3.98/2021 37.32%2022 93.7/2021 4.54%47 2019-2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 130 72 75 65/14 7.53 6.35 3.98-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%0.005,000.0010,000.0015,000.0020,000.0025,000.0030,000.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.0050.00100.0005000100001500020000250002004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022%0200000400000600000800000100000012000002005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022生活垃圾焚烧无害化处理 能力(吨/日)无害化处理能力:卫生填埋(吨/日)其他无害化方式处理能力(吨/日)2023Q3 2009 1210 21 700 367 317 258/69.7 79.51 89.63 93.7 2021 75.84%56.6%100%2022 11 28 2025/10 2022 26634 10.14%5995.44 22.51%10 48 10 49 2022 2020-2022 629.54 673.34 674.41 2022 99.39%2020-2022 119.02 121.99 126.19 2022 97.86%2020-2022 13.53 13.16 12.78 2022 5 2022 87%3.37%0%5%10%15%20%25%0100002000030000400002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 010002000300040005000600070002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 2009 1210 22 50 10 2020-2022 571.36 625.08 638.97 557.28 611.90 626.89 97.53%97.92%98.11%2020-2022 103.76 109.31 114.93 98.62 105.06 111.41 95.05%96.11%96.94%51 10 2017 0%20%40%60%80%100%010000002000000300000040000005000000600000070000002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%50%100%020000004000000600000080000002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 2009 1210 23 52 10 53 10 1 2023 UCO 2 2022 UCO 7500-8000/6000/8000 UCO 23Q3 3 050010001500200025002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 020040060080010002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q3 2009 1210 24 54 UCO 55 UCO/Wind Wind 56 57/Wind Wind 2023Q3 5 2023 Q2 4 2 2 4 2023Q3 76.7 9.0%5.10/2.48 0.0050000000.00100000000.00150000000.00200000000.00250000000.00UCO 出口量(吨)02004006008001000120014001600出口均价(美元/吨)0.00050000.000100000.0001500