2024 2023 11 9|010-S0980520080003 021-S0980520080009 010-S0980523050002 0755-S0980523010001 2024 5 85%2024 PE 15-20 25-30 2024 2023 9 4%41%9 20%17%2022 34.38 2023 383.1 2023 4 2 2024 4 2-2024 2024 20GW 2024 AI/BC WUCXuNsPnOmNoQpMsPpQnM7NdN8OmOmMnPsReRnMpOlOmMwPbRqRqRuOmMzQMYmQpO 24 25 2021-2023 2023-2027 2021 2023 2024 2024-2025 2023 2024-2025 2023+GIS 2023 20242023/22H2 23H1 2023 23H1 4 2 23H2 4 5 7 8+2024/2023 10 2024/2 21-23 1 5 2017-2019 2020 2023 1-9 5538+41%2023 1-9 3287+4%9 582 20%17%5373500946994951500632872721405852445530679155382018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 313 30827237064233442848735769880331934931641665441923258201002003004005006007008009001-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 2022 2023 4 2022%3 2022-2023 2023 828610763719412616011794020406080100120140160180 1 2 3 4 5 6 2022 2023 2023 2022 6 503.26 2023 5 4 496.0 47%2022 24%22%22%8%8%24%22%22%8%2%2%2%2%1%1 2023-2030 26 2022 1 12 1 11-13GW 4GW 9 3 2025 200GW 12 9 2030 255GW 165GW 90GW 14 17-800-800-914-1050 650 400 10 150-400-980 530 440-150-400-1300 400 900-230-400-1350 400 950-200-400-1200 400 800-240-400 1000 400 700-200-400-1150 450 700-200-400-1300-1300-650-750 30 720-150-200-400-400-800 200 600-150-200 12180 3460 8710 10 1520 2376 3000 2-2023 3 2023 1 2023 5-2022 4 2023 3 5 2022-2023 6 2023 1 1412 2133632 241 132 21411842814170501001502002503003504004500123456789102015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 7 34.38 2023 5 5 383.1 1 2-3-5-2023-2025 0/3/6 3/2/2 24 23 4 2 24 4 2-34.3865.979.3149.588.40204060801001201401602022 202301 202302 202303 2023051000kV 23%1000kV 48%1000kV 15%2%3%9%1000kV 17.65 12.9 800kV 46.27 34.26 1000kV(12%1000kV 25%1000kV(8%)800kV 47%19%5%2.4%47%19%7%5%5%17%2.4%2.2%2.1%1.5%1.3%1.1%1.0%5.3%7 2022 8 2022 9-2022 6 118-125 3-800kV 2021 1/3 1/3 1/3 500kV 2020 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4 800kV 2020 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4 4 800kV 8000MVA%11-13 45%4.9-5.9 28-32 40%11.2-12.8/23 5 8-IGBT 800 3 25-26-24H1 11-13 45%-28-32-23 11 2023 9 1821 5.5%3500 4000 3%800V 2023 9 106.1 2023 10 27 7.38 2023 10 3.5 20 1 10 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00 11 27%EAFO 12%AFDC 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.00 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.002020 2021 2022 23-08 23-09 23-10 4C 2025 789 2023-2025 41%2025 619 2023-2025 44%13 Marklines AFDC IEA 14 Marklines AFDC IEA 154.2256.0397.2578.8788.666%55%46%36%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.02021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY105.8184.2296.5445.0618.874%61%50%39%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.02021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 2023 2023 2020 60GW 2MW 5MW 2024 15%2022 92.4GW 2023 73GW 2024 23Q3 23Q3 23Q4 2024 23Q4 24 2024 2024-2025 2023 2025 2023 20 375GW 200GW 127.5GW 20.6GW 27GW 22.8GW 37.9GW 27GW 20GW 10GW 200GW 158GW 14GW 10GW 8GW 7.5GW 8 75.8GW 15 2023%16 2023%,64%,13%,11%,10%,2%,59%,22%,8%,11%2023 17 GW 19/kW 18 2023 GW 20 2023 72.1 47.6 37.6 5.84 10.40 33.48 010203040506070801+2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M2020 2021 2022 2023 05001000150020002500300035004000450017/09 18/03 18/09 19/03 19/09 20/03 20/09 21/03 21/09 22/03 22/09 23/03 23/092.0S 2.5S 3.0S 4.0S 5MW 26182589196005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0001+2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M2020 2021 2022 2023 28.749.624.950.976.565.070.078.04.815.66.33.415.98.014.020.033.565.231.254.392.473.084.098.00204060801001202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 21/25/22/26/Wind 23/27/Wind 24/28/Wind 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0901,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0901,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0905001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0901,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0905,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/09010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0905,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0901,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/1101,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/1101,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/1105001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/1101,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/1105,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/11010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/1105,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00021/0121/0321/0521/0721/0921/1122/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/0323/0523/0723/0923/11 2024-2027 29 GW CWEA 31 CWEA 30 GW GWEC 32 GWEC 30.733.6607585607016.947131816182021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 36 38 35 38 41 44 55 5.63.76.34.710.814.817.62021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 19921283 127814401588119413592021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 268923461710 17031788214326602021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2024-2027 1 33 CWEA GWEC,35 CWEA GWEC,34 CWEA GWEC,36 CWEA GWEC,33611314727844250468084263567104118150-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%01002003004005006007008002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E yoy197169 1731932111782143714161921182201020304001002003004005002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 4671912103334684485445619254056546501020304050607002004006008002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 13152 537499 1061297875925486147046287546436303843394701020304050607005001,0001,5002,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 5 22-23 220kV MW/km 2022.8.29 H3H5 1000 487 2023.3.6 BW 510 375 2023.3.6 BW 510 391 2023.4.17 BDB6#300 546 2023.5.15 1 306 667 2023.5.15 CZ8 500 624 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E-20 2-40-10 10-30 30-30 30-20 90 90/-33%50%50%10 10 10 10 10-10 20 10 10 10 20 30/42%50%50%40%43%-2 2 2-2 2 2/-3%3%3%-5 5 5 5-30 30-5 5 35 35/-10%7%24%19%6/GW 2023 11.5 2031 16.6 GW 500KV 330kV 220kV/2025/90/30/2/35 50%/43%/3%/19%N 2023 2023 630 Q2 Q3 Q2 2024 10 24GW 1-10 208GW+69%1.5 2024 6 2024 1 HjT BC 2024 2024 TCL N HjT BC 2024 2023 11 65/kg M10 0.32/0.48/1.05/W A 1618/kg 1214/kg B 1416/kg 68/kg C 911/kg 46/kg D(-2)(-1)/kg(-7)(-6)/kg 37/kg Solarzoom 39/W Solarzoom 38/Solarzoom 40/W Solarzoom 65.00 05010015020025030035021/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/102.40 3.40 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.021/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10182mm 210mm0.48 0.53 0.40.60.81.01.21.41.621/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10182mm 210mm1.051.061.01.21.41.61.82.02.221/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10P 182&210mm P 182&210mm P M10 2023 11 W 0.050/W 0.042/W 0.020/W 0.017/W 0.006/W 0.009/W 0.044/W 0.018/W 0.071/W 0.009/W 41/W Solarzoom 43/W Solarzoom 42/W Solarzoom 44/+/W Solarzoom 0.18 0.05-0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.0022-01 22-04 22-07 22-10 23-01 23-04 23-07 23-10 0.32 0.02(0.20)-0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.2022-01 22-04 22-07 22-10 23-01 23-04 23-07 23-10 0.48 0.01-0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.6022-01 22-04 22-07 22-10 23-01 23-04 23-07 23-10 1.05 0.04 0.07(0.50)-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.5022-01 22-04 22-07 22-10 23-01 23-04 23-07 23-10 47/kg Solarzoom 45/Solarzoom 49/Solarzoom 48/Solarzoom 46/SMM 50/Solarzoom 42000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00022/01 22/03 22/05 22/07 22/09 22/11 23/01 23/03 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/11210,000 95,000 415,000 50,000150,000250,000350,000450,00023/01 23/02 23/03 23/04 23/05 23/06 23/07 23/08 23/09 23/10 6240355002,0004,0006,0008,00021/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10 7.50 13.50 051015202521/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10EVA POE27.00 18.50 0102030405021/01 21/04 21/07 21/10 22/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/103.2mm 2.0mm7.5036912151822/01 22/04 22/07 22/10 23/01 23/04 23/07 23/10 2024-2027 51 GW CPIA SPE SEIA 53 CPIA SPE SEIA 1.2 52 GW CPIA SPE SEIA 54 CPIA SPE SEIA 1.2 26 36 85 90 110 130 150 55 87 160 180 220 260 300 0501001502002503003502021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E(GW)(GW)24 21 32 35 37 40 44 26 45 61 76 92 107 117 113 142 200 290 340 385 440 01002003004005002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 3,736 5,681 6,654 6,360 6,918 7,572 8,673 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 434 645 851 561 656 751 853 02004006008001,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2024 5%6500 2024-2027 1 55 CPIA SPE SEIA 57 CPIA SPE SEIA 1.2 56(CPIA SPE SEIA 1.2 58 CPIA SPE SEIA 1.2 847 1,767 955 790 935 987 1,081 395 1,041 281 141 242 306 335 56 74 112 141 161 170 186 02040608010012014016018020004008001,2001,6002,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 6 8 11 12 14 15 18 7 10 17 26 32 38 44 321 405 598 727 869 1,005 1,153 0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.00204060802021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E3.2mm 2.0mm 335 446 637 788 887 957 1,034 02004006008001,0001,2002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 237 267 364 426 482 532 571 385 514 797 985 1185 1374 1594 31 55 81 99 117 133 152 0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E)9 HJT SolarZoom CPIA 8 EPC/W SolarZoom CPIA TCL 7/W SolarZoom CPIA TCL N EPC TOPCon HJT ABC HPBC PERC ABC 3.5%TOPCon 3.3%HPBC 2.1%HJT 1.9%N BOS HjT BC N 2024 Hjt 150 2025 350 PERC TOPCon HJT ABC HPBC 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.14 0.17 0.24 0.24 0.19 0.04 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.03-0.04-0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.48 0.50 0.56 0.58 0.54 PERC TOPCon HJT ABC HPBC 0.48 0.50 0.56 0.58 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.56 CTM 1.17 1.19 1.25 1.27 1.23 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 2.00 1.87 1.85 1.78 1.87 EPC 3.19 3.08 3.12 3.08 3.12 105 168 374 2120501001502002503003504002022 2023E 2024E 2025E 24 2024 20-30%2023-2024 24 2024 ODM AI AI 4680 AI AI 10 24 2023 AI PC 10 26 14 AI AI AI 1 AI PC AI Phone 2 AI 59 PC 60 14 AI 10 2023.11.3 62 622/63/Wh 61/2023 2023 2023%2023%50-60%/16.45 17.10-3.80%51.75-68.21%-68.21%/6.15 6.15-16.20-62.04%-62.04%622/9.05 9.05-11.55-21.65%-21.65%622/17.60 17.80-1.12%36.45-51.71%-51.71%/1.20 1.20-2.24-46.43%-46.43%/21.75 22.00-1.14%42.50-48.82%-48.82%5-10%/1.13 1.13-1.80-37.50%-37.50%/3.45 3.45-4.80-28.13%-28.13%-/27.50 27.50-27.50-3-4%9um/1.25 1.25-1.45-13.79%-13.79%12um/0.75 0.75-0.85-11.76%-11.76%9+3um/1.65 1.65-2.15-23.26%-23.26%8-10%/9.15 9.35-2.14%23.25-60.65%-60.65%LIFSI/20.00 20.00-34.50-42.03%-42.03%/2.35 2.35-5.30-55.66%-55.66%10%4.5um/4.80 4.80-5.70-15.79%-15.79%4%12um/1.65 1.70-2.94%1.90-13.16%-13.16%/6.50 6.50-10.25-36.59%-36.59%/3.70 3.70-4.35-14.94%-19.57%NMP/1.76 1.76-2.28-22.81%-26.05%/-/Wh 0.505 0.505-0.980-48.47%-48.47%-/Wh 0.485 0.485-0.935-48.13%-48.13%-/Wh 0.460 0.460-0.825-44.24%-44.24%-/Wh 0.545 0.545-0.920-40.76%-40.76%16.45 01020304050607017.60 010203040500.5450.000.200.400.600.801.00 2024-2027 64 GGII Marklines,66 GWh EV Tank,SNE Research,65 GGII Marklines 67 EV Tank,SNE Research,350 689 910 1,132 1,350 1,548 1,730 653 1,087 1,437 1,819 2,219 2,609 2,981 05001000150020002500300035002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 65 100 160 247 359 484 605 216 254 302 350 399 443 485 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01002003004005006007002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 172 336 457 580 706 820 919 297 518 732 966 1,222 1,473 1,703 03006009001200150018002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 3,296 7,139 7,442 7,465 8,249 9,311 10,716 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0200040006000800010000120002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2024-2027 1 68 EV Tank,SNE Research,70 EV Tank,SNE Research,69 EV Tank,SNE Research,71 EV Tank,SNE Research,74 99 73 101 127 155 172 46 120 158 214 283 315 377 0501001502002503003504002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 91 156 113 153 197 226 262 76 125 96 131 170 196 225 0501001502002503002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 61 104 119 161 208 250 291 8 13 15 17 19 20 23 0501001502002503002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 77 117 136 179 225 271 315 31 43 56 82 113 137 159 0501001502002503002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 11 2023 11 6 Wind EPS PEPB(MRQ 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E603218.SH 148 0.72 1.05 1.27 19.8 13.6 11.3 1.52002531.SZ 251 0.59 0.98 1.34 23.6 14.2 10.4 2.84300129.SZ 99 0.45 0.74 1.06 23.5 14.3 10.0 2.34300443.SZ 101 1.39 2.27 3.09 22.4 13.7 10.1 1.67300772.SZ 77 0.92 1.21 1.67 11.9 9.0 6.6 1.51603606.SH 316 1.56 2.39 3.03 29.5 19.2 15.2 5.11688676.SH 143 1.18 1.88 2.40 28.2 17.8 14.0 4.83600875.SH 479 1.26 1.69 2.02 12.2 9.1 7.6 1.31002276.SZ 112 0.58 0.71 0.93 18.5 15.1 11.6 2.10300185.SZ 98 0.12 0.15 0.19 21.7 16.4 13.0 1.45 12 2023 11 6 Wind EPSPEPB(MRQ 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E600406.SH 1820 0.90 1.05 1.19 25.3 21.5 19.0 4.11002270.SZ 112 0.62 0.78 0.94 20.0 15.9 13.2 3.40601226.SH 67 0.30 0.38 0.50 19.1 15.1 11.4 1.60600312.SH 147 0.52 0.73 0.89 20.9 14.8 12.2 1.50603063.SH 110 1.18 1.40 1.74 21.0 17.8 14.3 2.88002028.SZ 376 2.09 2.51 2.97 23.2 19.4 16.4 3.72000400.SZ 187 0.95 1.24 1.64 19.4 14.8 11.2 1.74300693.SZ 87 1.20 1.61 1.98 23.5 17.5 14.2 6.50 13 2023 11 6 Wind EPSPEPB(MRQ 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E300274.SZ 1292 6.68 6.76 7.91 13.0 12.9 11.0 5.06600438.SH 1218 4.02 3.02 3.74 6.7 9.0 7.2 1.96300751.SZ 357 4.37 7.38 10.24 29.3 17.4 12.5 5.15601012.SH 1777 2.53 3.15 3.62 9.3 7.4 6.5 2.50002129.SZ TCL 751 2.34 2.90 3.39 7.9 6.4 5.5 1.72688303.SH 761 2.59 1.69 2.96 13.7 21.0 12.0 1.75600481.SH 180 1.00 1.49 1.67 9.6 6.5 5.8 2.69603806.SH 484 1.14 1.45 1.66 22.7 18.0 15.6 3.31300827.SZ 104 1.13 1.84 2.57 25.8 15.8 11.4 6.46688223.SH 944 0.82 0.95 1.11 11.4 9.9 8.5 2.94688599.SH 654 3.20 4.33 4.91 9.4 6.9 6.1 2.13002459.SZ 765 2.69 3.38 4.18 8.6 6.8 5.5 2.20002865.SZ 209 11.45 14.14 16.28 8.0 6.5 5.6 3.80600732.SH 332 1.60 2.02 2.80 11.4 9.0 6.5 3.32300118.SZ 210 1.71 2.42 3.21 10.8 7.6 5.7 1.38601865.SH 645 1.21 1.64 2.10 22.6 16.7 13.0 3.00688598.SH 113 3.22 4.81 6.41 25.1 16.8 12.6 1.81688503.SH 109 3.34 4.47 5.90 19.7 14.7 11.2 2.22688147.SH 192 0.35 0.55 0.73 122.3 76.2 58.0 8.75688390.SH 206 6.38 7.81 9.19 18.7 15.3 13.0 6.86605117.SH 319 4.57 4.94 5.64 16.2 15.0 13.1 6.18 14 2023 11 6 Wind EPSPEPB(MRQ 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E