20230131_华创证券_传媒行业证券深度研究报告：全产业复苏有望和春天一起到来_28页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 01 31 22 19 61%69%40%+21 19 72%22+1 1 27 24:00 62 19/22 13.2%/12.5%1.28 yoy+13%yoy-0.2%19/22 2 23 22 2 26.1/21.7 7.5 4.9 3.6 21 23 1 21 16-19 40%22 22%20%2+23 553 1 23 19 65%-85%2 23 23 40-44 23/19 70%/85%/96%16.5%/8/12/17 2.7 40%+1 2 2 010-63214660 S0360521010001%()149 0.02()12,985.46 1.39()11,300.51 1.59%1M 6M 12M 9.8%4.2%-19.0%0.6%6.6%-5.7%20230109-20230113 2023-01-16 2023-01-09 20230102-20230106 2023-01-09-25%-15%-4%7%22/01 22/04 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/012022-01-272023-01-20 300 2009 1210 23 1 20%2 19 8 1 2 2 0YDWzQtOoNpOqOsRqNqPrQ7NdN7NpNnNpNmPlOmMpNeRrRqRaQpOmQNZnQxPMYnMmO 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.9.9 1 20%.10 2.14 23 8.17 1 23 553.17 2 329 2.7.18.19 1.19 2.20 3.21 4.22 5.23.24 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.6 4/.6 5 TOP10%.7 6.7 7%19.7 8%.8 9.8 10.8 11%.9 12 2016-2022%.9 13 2022 TOP10.9 14%.9 15 19%.10 16.10 17 22 11.12 18.13 19%.13 20%.13 21 20182023.14 22.14 23 18 23%.15 24 1823%.15 25 2223.15 26 1823.15 27 1823.16 28 1823.16 29 2018-2023.16 30 2023 2022.17 31 2023.18 32.18 33 20.19 2009 1210 5 34%.20 35.20 36.21 37 TOP10.22 38.23 39.23 40%.24 41 APP.24 42 pipeline.24 2009 1210 6 2022 2019 61%69%40%2020 20212022 2022+22 40%70%2020 2021 2022 11 1 2 wind wind 3 4/wind wind-1.54%-87.53%240.92%44.26%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%020004000600080001000012000140002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy17.44%-44.30%2.33%20.85%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%010020030040050060070080090010002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy-0.36%-80.64%50.18%38.97%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%0200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-11 2019%2019%2009 1210 7 5 TOP10%Box Office Mojo+1 20 1-20 8 2 20 8-21+600 2019 72%3 22 1-2 19 89%3 22 19 46%6 7%19 wind wind 20 19 60%21 19 22 358 20 1-2 19/3-6 68.77%53.60%77.57%74.45%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 020406080100120M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122019 2020 2021 202218.67%38.09%105.67%72.09%88.66%45.87%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%春节票房 恢复率 2022 年票 房恢复 率2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 8 8%9 20 1 22 2 10 Box Office Mojo 1 19/20/21/22 11470/11977/12458/12581 22 7.7 1.6%2 16 22 35.6 19 87 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0102030405060708090M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M122019 2020 2021 202201020304050607080901000123456789102019 2020 2021 2022 TOP10 2009 1210 9 11%12 2016-2022%21 reopen+13 2022 TOP10 14%2022 2021+2023 7 23 19 8 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%01234567892014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(yoy-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0204060801001202016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CR1 CR3 CR5 2009 1210 10 1 20%871 2+2-1 reopen+21 20-22 19 15 19%wind 2023 7 23 16 2/2023/1/22 2023/1/22/2023/1/24 2023/2/14/2023/4/1 2023/4/28/2023 2023/2023 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%2020-012020-022020-032020-042020-052020-062020-072020-082020-092020-102020-112020-122021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12 2009 1210 11/2023 2023/1/22 2023/1/22 2023/1/22/2023/1/24 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023 2 2023 2023 2023/2023 2023 2023 2023.1.22 2023/2/17 2023/4/28 2 2023 2023/2023/2023 2023 2023 2023 2/2023/1/22/2023/2023/2023 2/2023/1/22 2009 1210 12 2023 2023/2023 2023/2023/2023 2023 2023/1/22/2023/2023-2023/2/25 2023/5/20-2023/4/29-2023/2/14-2023/2/24 20%22 10 22 11 2 12 16 16 11 22 1 7 7668 23 1 2 2 4 19 6 2 16-19 40%22 22%20%17 22 11 2022/11/12 2022/11/18/2022/11/18 2022/11/19 2022/11/19/2022/11/25 2022/12/1 2967 2022/12/2/2022/12/2 2009 1210 13 2/2022/12/6/2022/12/6 2 2022/12/23/2022/12/23 2022/12/23 2023/1/6 2023/1/6 2/2023/2/7/2023/2/17/2023/2/24 2/18 19%22 2 20%2022-12-31 2 2 2313 32 2 23897352012345678910 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%100.00%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 14 Netflix+Netflix IP 45 2 21 4 1 20 7 1 80%2023 23 1 27 24:00 62 19/22 13.2%/12.5%54.66/55 12.38 22 yoy-6%10.18/10.31/10.09/9.87/9.04 22 6%/12%/25%/25%/27%19 9.36/8.72/7.96/7.74/7.21 23 21 20182023 22 23 1 27 24:00 23 1 27 24:00 1 2023 48.1 21 0.2%2 23 1.28 21 13%19 1.31-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%010203040506070802018 2019 2021 2022 2023()yoy%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.00年初一 年初二 年初三 年初四 年初五 年初六2019 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 15 23 18 23%24 1823%1 19 23 0.25/0.21/0.21/0.21/0.21/0.19 19 0.32/0.22/0.21/0.19/0.19/0.18 21-2%/9%/13%/23%/21%/21%2 48.6/48.6/48.3/47.8/47.5/48.2 25 2223 26 1823 2023 2022/11%/33%/21%/35%0.7pct-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%01020304050602018 2019 2021 2022 2023 yoy%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802018 2019 2021 2022 2023 yoy%43.0044.0045.0046.0047.0048.0049.0050.0051.0052.002022 2023 0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.40年初一 年初二 年初三 年初四 年初五 年初六2019 2021 2022 2023 2009 1210 16 27 1823 28 1823 CR3 31.19%0.35pct 14.63%0.26pct 29 2018-2023 2.26.1/21.7/7.5/4.9/3.6/2.9 22/2 8.2 7.8 7.4 6.8 22 TOP3 7.7.7.4 7.2 2 2 43%/30%21 TOP2 43%/22%6 797 71919241820111114111318 18241922010203040506070802018 年 2019年 2021年 2022年 2023 年 11%12%13%12%11%34%34%34%33%33%21%21%20%21%21%34%33%33%34%35%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2018 年 2019年 2021年 2022年 2023年 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%2018年 2019 年 2021 年 2022年 2023年CR1 CR3 2009 1210 17 30 2023 2022 23 8 1 23 553 23 19/21/22 59/78/60 9%/17%/20%23 21/22 19/14%/12%/10%482/562/674*20-22 5.49/11.67/7.11 19 32%/68%/41%23/19 65%/75%/85%20-22 37/37/40/42/40/42/44/2023 449/544/646 19 70%/85%/96%/2023 446/553/675 2009 1210 18 31 2023 2 329 2.7 1)5%3%45%11%59.5%2)18-19 4.90/5.18/5.38/11.17 7 18-19 11.76/11.37/8.61/10.99 11 18-19 5.13/4.40/2.68/3.50 4 1/19 7/8/9 2 22 16.94%23 16.5%3/19 7/8/9 13%7.99/12.28/16.56 35%329.38 54.35 32 7 8 9 449.04 513.18 577.33 16.50%16.50%16.50%74.09 84.68 95.26-13%0%13%2009 1210 19 3%2.22 2.54 2.86 5%3.70 4.23 4.76 45%30.67 35.06 39.44 11%7.50 8.57 9.64 4 4 4 11 11 11 7 7 7(7.99 12.28 16.56-35%0%35%54.35 329.38 1 20 11 9 2 46.86+33.91 33 20 2021/9/30 57.75 2 2017/7/27 56.94 2021/2/12 54.13 2019/2/15 46.86 3 2021/2/12 45.23 2022/2/1 40.67 2 2018/2/16 33.97 2016/2/8 33.91 2022/7/29 31.03 2020/2/1 28.29 2 2015/7/16 22.37 2 2 1 27 24:00 21.7 25-30 1 20%1-1.4 26.1 2009 1210 20 23 4 23 34%23 20%2022Q3 21,282 267.18 28.04%2 250 600 23 1 16 10 1/8/9 35/57.75 2 56.94 40.66 36.51 31.69 29.12 17.28 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22Q1-Q3%2009 1210 21 17.06 14.76 13.28 2 13.14 12.73 11.86 4 11.81 3 11.16 8.83 1 27 24:00 4.9 4 1 2 1 2 17 IP 2 2 2.1 IPO 3 50 4 16 9.5 30 2 2 36 2019/7/26 50.35 2020/10/1 16.02 2015/7/10 9.54 2016/7/8 5.73 2020/8/21 31.1 2019/9/30 31.7 2 2021/12/17 11.21 2009 1210 22 2022/1/8 6.08 23-/-/7 3D+1 26 22:00 3.04 5 2.71 6 4 22 17%8%37 TOP10 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 13.58%13.74%15.13%15.17%16.94%7.28%7.02%7.45%7.55%8.24%9.87%9.79%9.71%9.52%8.00%7.95%7.94%7.57%7.75%7.34%7.42%7.19%6.89%6.98%7.23%3.44%3.96%3.96%4.13%4.42%4.90%4.81%4.14%4.34%4.34%4.35%4.21%4.35%4.22%4.22%6.43%5.29%4.23%4.01%3.74%3.49%3.67%3.49%3.45%3.22%+1 2 2009 1210 23 38 39 23 pipeline IP 23 2/5+2018 Q3 60%+-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 24 40%41 APP APP 22H1/15 6 19 3 21.76 2.71 4 1(5 20)(/4 29)(/)/6 22 42 pipeline 2023/1/22/2023/1/22/2023/1/24/2023/4/1/2023/4/29 2023/5/20 2023 2023/2023-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%05101520252015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 yoy%2009 1210 25 2015-2016 2016-2019 2019-2020 TMT 2016/2017 2016 2016 2017 2017 2019 WIND 2019 WIND 2021 2021 2021 2009 1210 26 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 2009 1210 27(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
