20230128_华创证券_医药行业证券研究报告：创新药系列研究如何看待一批传统药企创出历史新高_22页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 01 28 2022 biotech ADC biotech 3-5 3-5 EPS 2015 S0360520120002%()446 0.06()79,236.41 8.48()58,430.18 8.22%1M 6M 12M 10.0%2.8%-8.8%0.8%5.1%4.5%EGFR x HER3 ADC 2023-01-17 2022-12-10 CAR-T 2022-10-15-26%-16%-6%4%22/01 22/04 22/06 22/08 22/11 23/012022-01-262023-01-20医药 沪深300 2009 1210 2.4 biotech.5 ADC EGFR/HER3.7 ADC K.8/.9+NASH.10 AR882.10 A.11.11.14.15.15.16.16.17.18 1ZDWyRnQsRpOpRsRsPrOrQaQaObRsQoOmOtQlOmMpOlOmPmM7NpOmQMYnOxPMYnOtN 2009 1210 3 1.4 2.4 3 A.5 4.5 5.6 6.7 7.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.9 12.10 13 AR882 IIb.10 14.11 15 A.11 16.12 17.12 18.12 19 ROE.13 20 ROE.13 21.14 22 2017-2022Q3%.14 23.15 24.15 25.15 26.15 27.16 28.16 29.17 30 PE TTM.17 31.18 2009 1210 4 2022 15.12%21.16%1 Wind 2023-01-20 50%2019-2021 2022 15.3%2 Wind 01002003004005006002012-12-31 2013-12-31 2014-12-31 2015-12-31 2016-12-31 2017-12-31 2018-12-31 2019-12-31 2020-12-31 2021-12-31 2022-12-31人福医药 信立泰科伦药业 海思科恩华药业 众生药业京新药业20%45%-4%92%68%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2017/12/31 2018/12/31 2019/12/31 2020/12/31 2021/12/31 2022/12/31 2009 1210 5 biotech 2015 A+2015 156 2021 670 3 A Wind biotech 2 1 biotech pharma 2 biotech 2 4 02004006008002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2009 1210 6 5-7 III NDA 5 SI-B001 EGFR/HER3 III BL-B01D1 EGFR/HER3 ADC I A166 HER-2 ADC III HER-2 ADC SKB264 TROP-2 ADC III TROP-2 ADC RAY1216 3CL III ZSP12732 PB-2 III ARB HIF-PH NDA S086 ARNi III DPP-4 III GABAa III HSK16149 NDA HSK7653 DPP-4 III 2 1 oliceridine Mu NDA EVT201 GABAa NDA AR882 URAT1 IIb P-CAB PPI DNA gyrase DNA gyrase ARX788 HER-2 ADC II/III 2 F-627 G-CSF NDA ASK120067 EGFR-T790M NDA 3 EGFR-TKI TAMA First-in-class CPT rmhTRAIL NDA First-in-class DPP-4 III 1 1 CDE 2009 1210 7 6 2022/12/22 7 ADC 1.75 93 2022/9/29 Almirall SIM-0278 IL-2 1500 4.92 2022-08-18 JMKX-002992 AR PROTAC 6000 5.9 2022-07-28 ELEVATION SYSA-1801 CLDN18.2 ADC 2700 1.48 10.2 2022-07-26 ADC ADC 3500 9.01 2022-05-13 SKB-264 TROP2 ADC 4700 13.63 2022-05-06 JMKX-000623 SCN10A 1500 2022-03-01/Apogepha G-CSF 40 100 3750 2021-11-30 JMKX-001899 KRAS-G12C 2021-11-16 Bright Peak LZM009 PD-1 2021-10-29 SPH-6162 WEE1 250 2.925 2021-09-29 TTP-273 GLP-1R 150 3750 2021-03-25 Ellipses KL-590586 RET 2021-03-09 Foresite FTP-637 TYK2 6000 1.2 2021-02-23 Graviton TDI-01 ROCK2 5.175 2020-11-10 Dong-A-PD-L1/TGF-229 1.285 2020-10-29 FCN-338 BCL-2 4000 3.4 6000 2020-09-28 Hlb Life HER2 170 1.27 2020-07-23 Eqrx EGFR-T790M 1 ADC EGFR/HER3 ADC GNC 16 FIC SI-B001 EGFR HER3 PD-(L)1 6 II PD-1 ORR 53.33%III BL-B01D1 EGFR HER3 ADC EGFR-TKI 87.5%ORR ADC 2009 1210 8 7 SI-B001 EGFR/HER3 PD-1 NSCLC III/II EGFR+NSCLC II SI-B003 PD1/CTLA4/Ib GNC-038 CD19/PDL1/4-1BB/CD3 NHL Ib GNC-039 EGFRvIII/PDL1/4-1BB/CD3 Ib GNC-035 ROR1/PDL1/4-1BB/CD3/NHL Ib BL-B01D1 EGFR/HER3 ADC Ib BL-M02D1 Trop2 ADC Ib BL-M07D1 HER2 ADC Ia ADC K ADC ADC 8 9 日期 产品 首付款（亿美元）总金额（亿美元）2022-12-22 7 个 ADC 1.75 94.75 2022-07-26 SKB315 0.35 9.36 2022-05-16 SKB264 0.47 14.10 Wind 2022 3 9 ADC 118 K 10 ADC A166 HER2 ADC III SKB264 Trop-2 ADC III SKB315 Claudin 18.2 ADC I SKB410 Nectin-4 ADC I/PD-L1 BLA SKB378 TSLP I 051015202013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 2009 1210 9 SKB337 PD-L1/CTLA4 I KL-A289 LAG3 I SKB336 F11 I KL-A293 HAVCR2 I KL340399 STING I KL031322-I KL130008 JAK1;I KL290052 I KL280006 KOR1 II KL590586 RET I KL060332 HBV pol I KL100137 GABAAR I CDE/10 3 6 7 2023 SAL0107 2024 S086 SAL0108 2025 S086 JK07 JK08 SAL0114 SAL0119 first-in-class best-in-class 11 ARB HIF NDA DPP4 III S086 ARNi/III SAL092 PCSK9 I SeV-hFGF2/dF SeV-hFGF2/dF I JK07/SAL007 NRG-1/HER3 I SAL003 PCSK9 I SAL0104 XIa I SAL0114/I SAL0112 GLP-1/I CDE 2009 1210 10+NASH NASH 12 RAY1216 3CL III ZSP1273 RNA PI-PB2 III ZSP1603 VEGFR/PDGFR II ZSP1601 PDE2 NASH IIb ZSP0678 PBC I RAY1225 GLP1R/GIPR/NASH I CDE AR882 AR882 Arthrosi Therapeutics URAT1 IIb 60.70%Arthrosi 18.68%AR882 4 AR882 URAT1 2023 1 6 AR882 IIb 140 1:1:1 AR882 50mg AR882 75 mg sUA 8.6mg/dL 12 75mg sUA 3.5mg/dL 50mg sUA 5.0mg/dL 8 12 3 50mg 75mg AR882 AR882 13 AR882 IIb 2009 1210 11 A 2021 mRNA 16 7 1 5 2022 4 LNP CT102 ASO 1 IGF1R 20 2022 1 I 2022 3 IIa I CT102 AE AE A A 2023 1 10 A III 45 1100 A 90 mRS 1 mRS 2 Barthel-Index BI NIHSS A 90 mRS 1 14 15 A 2009 1210 12 2015 2016 3 5 2018 7 294 35%16 17 CDE CDE 3-5 Wind 18 Wind 2022-2024 Wind 2023 1 20 ROE 8215636651256501002003004005006002018 2019 2020 2021 2022片剂,39%注射剂,36%胶囊剂,9%其他,16%0100200300400石药 中生 恒瑞 科伦 健康元 丽珠 翰森 先声 罗欣 恩华 京新 信立泰 海思科 众生2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2009 1210 13 ROE 19 ROE Wind 2021 2022 ROE ROE 2015 2021 2022E ROE 2 20 ROE Wind 2020-2022 2023 3 14.7%16.3%16.7%12.9%12.5%11.2%11.6%12.6%12.0%14.7%7.3%5.9%6.4%8.8%0%5%10%15%20%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210%10%20%30%40%50%恒瑞 石药 中生 翰森 科伦 先声 丽珠 健康元 信立泰 海思科 恩华 京新2015 2016 20172018 2019 20202021 2022E-X2 2009 1210 14 21/20%2022Q4 Long-covid 22 2017-2022Q3%III 4060801001202014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024024681012肿瘤/免疫调节心脑血管胃肠道感冒/清热高血压维生素矿物质滋补保健糖尿病肌肉骨骼皮肤用药抗感染口腔咽喉止咳祛痰泌尿系统CNS补益助眠消炎/风湿血液用药妇产科眼科肝胆疾病COPD2017 20182019 20202021 2022Q1-Q3 2009 1210 15 23 24 Wind Wind 25 26 Wind Wind 2022 28+9.3%4.7+7.5%4.5+16%GABAA-A/pPAM-III 2022 3 01020304050营收 归母净利 润 研发支出2013 2014 20152016 2017 20182019 2020 20212022Q305101520皮质激素 妇科及计 生用药 麻醉及肌 松用药 其他主营 业务2013 2014 20152016 2017 20182019 2020 202101020304050营收 归母净利 润 研发支出2013 2014 20152016 2017 20182019 2020 20212022Q30510152025精神类 麻醉类 商 业 医药 神经类 原料药 其他2017 2018 20192020 2021 2009 1210 16 27 Wind 17 ANDA ANDA 28 Wind 32 5 22 8 2022 5 7 PIV EP-0084I 2022 5 FDA ANDA FDA 2 EP-0112T EP-0113T 010203040营收 扣非净利 润 研发支出2013 2014 2015 20162017 2018 2019 20202021 2022Q305101520 2013 2014 2015 20162017 2018 2019 20202021 2022Q3 2009 1210 17 29 Wind 2018 30 PE TTM Wind EPS 2015 024681012 2013 2014 2015 20162017 2018 2019 20202021 2022Q301020304050607080902011/12/31 2012/12/31 2013/12/31 2014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31 2019/12/31 2020/12/31 2021/12/31 2022/12/31 2009 1210 18 31 EPS PE 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 43.54 0.67 0.77 0.93 65 56 47 8.08 0.51 0.57 0.64 16 14 13 4.18 0.19 0.20 0.23 22 20 18 14.52 0.47 0.53 0.61 31 27 24 52.86-0.72-0.62-0.58-73-86-92 10.66 0.29 0.46 0.60 32 23 18 27.81 1.14 1.37 1.50 24 20 19 24.58 0.45 0.52 0.60 55 48 41 37.05 0.61 0.74 0.91 61 50 41 23.73 0.26 0.41 0.61 90 58 39 38.70 1.07 1.47 1.92 36 26 20 19.51 1.17 1.50 1.93 17 13 10 27.45 1.46 1.37 1.63 19 20 17 24.55 0.91 1.11 1.36 27 22 18 13.86 0.80 0.95 1.14 17 15 12 11.80 0.72 0.82 1.00 16 14 12 27.53 1.37 1.78 2.33 20 16 12 60.86 2.27 2.85 3.61 27 21 17 37.10 1.75 2.42 3.24 21 15 11 Wind 22-24 Wind 2023 1 20 2009 1210 19 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2009 1210 20 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 2009 1210 21(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
