20230212_中泰证券_美容护理行业证券研究报告：从巨子产品结构看胶原护肤趋势_18页.pdf
2023W05 美容护理 证 券 研 究 报 告/行业专题报告 2023 年 2 月 12 日 021-20315125 S0740518070004 Table_Profit 28()414,285()165,714 Table_QuotePic-Table_Report 2023.01.14 2022.12.06 2022.11.27 Table_Finance()EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 600 4.43 6.64 9.40 12.89 121 90 64 47 41 1.38 1.01 1.28 1.62 41 32 26 169 2.87 2.72 3.41 4.29 73 62 50 39 136 2.12 2.85 3.80 4.97 94 48 36 27 123 1.63 2.15 2.82 3.66 95 57 44 34 11 0.04 0.40 0.50 0.52 37 321 28 23 39 0.62 0.63 0.80 0.93 52 62 49 42 20230210 1/645/255 CAGR55%/29%II IV V XVII/2 2022 57%TOP2 20%/TOP1 40%+TOP3 15%3 4.3%2022 54%+5pct 8%+6%2021 TOP1 24%+18pct 30%+2022 9%4%5%1-2 TOP1/2-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02美容护理（申万）沪深300-2-1.-4-1.1.-4-1.2 CAGR55%.-5-1.3.-6-2.-7-2.1.-7-2.1.1.-7-2.1.2.-8-2.1.3.-8-2.1.4.-10-2.2.-11-2.2.1.-11-2.2.2.-11-2.2.3/.-12-3.-15-4.-16-XVCXwPtOmPqRqOpMmRsNrQ8O8Q8OoMnNnPmPfQqQpNlOoPmQ7NnMnRMYmRmQNZtPrM-3-1.-4-2.-4-3.-5-4.-5-5.-6-6.-6-7.-6-8.-7-9.-7-10 TOP5.-8-11 TOP5.-8-12.-9-13.-9-14.-9-15.-10-16.-10-17+.-10-18.-10-19.-11-20 TOP5.-11-21 TOP5.-12-22.-12-23.-12-24.-13-25.-13-26.-14-27.-14-28 2.0.-14-29.-15-4-1.1.1 70%75.2%70.2%58.19%I III 28 80%-90%II IV V XVII XVII XVII 1 6 XVII INCI XVII IV V 1 2 -5-1.2 CAGR55%CAGR 55%2021 46 4 CAGR 52.8%5 CAGR 55%2021 48 4 CAGR 92.2%5 CAGR 28.8%/IX XI I DNA XV 3 4 467211217426941664548 72 101 135 173 213 25557%56%55%55%55%55%50%40%34%28%23%20%0%20%40%60%02004006008002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E yoy yoy-6-1.3 TOP15 yoy 73%5 6 7&Human-like C5HR C5HR C5HA 217 mini&ISO-Freezing 4D 4D 99%+&26.40%27.70%27.60%24.30%20%19.90%11.70%13.60%13.40%9.00%9.50%9.90%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020H1 2021H1 2022H1 -7-2.2.1 2.1.1 2018 2019 2022M1-5 46%2022 2022 43%-8pct,2022 4pct 12%2022 C3 C3 5%C3 XV XV Human-origin 75%TRIHCOL 8 9 93.9%73.5%63.1%53.9%6.1%26.5%36.9%46.1%0%200%400%600%02468102019 2020 2021 2022M1-5-YOY-YOY51%43%28%22%0.2%18%1%4%16%12%0%20%40%60%80%100%2021 2022 -8-2.1.2 20%15%4.5%2020/2021 TOP5 2022 25.12%(-7pct)40%2.1.3 2021.11 TOP2/TOP1 10 TOP5 2020 2021 2022 NO.1 60.72%31.96%25.12%NO.2 13.57%15.27%20.16%NO.3 7.83%10.57%14.51%NO.4 3.58%6.22%8.97%NO.5 3.23%3.18%4.48%88.92%67.20%73.24%11 TOP5 2022.12 2023.1 NO.1 1265 42.98%1765 49.06%NO.2 952 32.35%778 21.62%NO.3 289 9.82%+375 10.42%NO.4+104 3.53%+175 4.86%NO.5 84 2.85%129 3.59%91.54%89.55%-9-C5HR I III 217 mini 5D+469/30 TOP2/TOP1 2022 2+8164%20%2022.12/2023.1 1265/1765 43%49%2021.12 TOP3 228/5 1.4 15%2022 TOP3 12 13 14 0%5%10%15%20%25%05000100001500020000250002021 2022 0.380.40.420.440.460.480.505001000150020002022.12 2023.1 0%5%10%15%20%050001000015000200002021 2022 -10-2020.7 2022 TOP5 2022 3836+93%3.9%+1.4pct;2022.12/2023.1 289/129 10%/4%1+158/500ml 2.1.4+2022.10+24+VC+4.3%2023.1 10.4%2022.10 3 2023.1 4.3%2022.12/2023.1 10.4%2023.1 7 359/80ml 15 16 17+18 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%0100020003000400050002020 2021 2022 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%01002003004002022.12 2023.1 -11-2.2 2.2.1 3 2022 21%-9pct,2022 54%+5pct 8%+6%19 2.2.2 TOP5 2.0 2.0 20 TOP5 C5HR 0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%020406080100120Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 24%40%40%44%30%21%5%4%3%3%2%8%48%32%33%30%49%54%0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -12-TOP1 TOP4 21 TOP5 2022.12 2023.1 NO.1 185.49 37.02%57.95 30.50%NO.2+87.5 17.47%50.59 26.63%NO.3 87.08 17.38%17.94 9.44%NO.4 24.6 4.91%10.7 5.63%NO.5 9.125 1.82%+9.28 4.88%78.60%77.08%2.2.3/2021.3 TOP1 C5HA+C5HA C5HR Q+283/20 TOP1 2022 3195+416%24%+18pct 2023.1 77%2022.12/2023.1 185 58 37%/31%.2020 2021 2022 NO.1 32.26%28.07%23.99%NO.2 9.32%27.44%15.81%NO.3 2.24%7.40%11.62%NO.4 1.66%6.36%8.54%NO.5 1.19%3.46%4.60%46.68%72.74%64.56%22 23 -13-2022.3 C5HA-1/-8+DNA 499/30ml 2022.9 C5HA+-1/-8-9 279/15g+6%2022.11 9%2022.12 3.5%2023.1+5%24 25 0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%05001000150020002500300035002021 2022 2023M1 00.10.20.30.40501001502002022.12 2023.1 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%050100150200250 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%010203040506070Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 -14-2022.7+C5HA-1/-8-9*HCL+*419/30 5 5%2022.12/2023.1 25/11 5%/6%2.0 2022.12 Human-like 4+1/3/6 298/150ml 2022.12/2023.1 8%2.5%2023.1 1 1 28 2.0 26 27 0%1%2%3%4%5%020406080100120140 4.40%4.60%4.80%5.00%5.20%5.40%5.60%5.80%0510152025302022.12 2023.1 -15-3./1-2 TOP1/2+29 2022PE 2022PEG 2021 2022E 2021 2022E 2021 2022E 408 15.55 21.91 8.28 9.98 0%21%41 1.94 592 49.48 69.56 7.82 10.34 21%32%57 1.78 60 17.75 19.12 0.23-0.84 105%-465 158 17.87 18.9 2.48 2.54-47%2%62 115 123.63 126.88 3.62 0.36-43%-90%577 40.22 56.31 8.63 12.07 59%40%56 1.4 70 2.33-0.57-80%-16.5-8.06-24%-50.26548828.7176448.11%2.48%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%0204060Dec-22 Jan-23 -16-6 2.4-0.34-63%-wind 20230210 4 2-3 H1 -17-612 15%612 5%15%612-10%+5%612 10%612 10%612-10%+10%612 10%612 A 300 500 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
