20231109_华创证券_房地产行业深度研究报告:产业为先再看北京_44页.pdf
2009 1210 2023 11 9 1 2018 55%2022 50%4 2 37%2021 GDP 42%1 2021 37%132.7 2 2021 58%37%3 GDP GDP 19%40%1 2021 3930 3744 3433 13%2 40%50%2021/47%1 CBD LIVE 2 CBD/47%70%S0360522110001%()111 0.01()13,017.21 1.47()12,171.13 1.78%1M 6M 12M-8.6%-12.8%-8.5%-5.8%-1.7%-6.8%2023 43 2023-10-31 2023 42 2023-10-24 2023-10-19-11%0%11%23%22/11 23/01 23/03 23/06 23/08 23/102022-11-042023-11-03 300 2009 1210 2018 55%2022 50%4 GDP 2021 GDP 42%37%58%GDP 19%GDP 65%40%50%/47%50%4 1 2 3 0YBYxOsPoNqRrPpMnQoRnMaQ8Q7NsQrRtRmPfQpOnMkPrQmMaQqQwPuOtPqOwMpOwO 2009 1210 3.7.7.9.11.15.15.24.36.36.37.41.41 2009 1210 4 1 2022 GDP GDP.7 2.8 3 2022 50%.8 4.8 5 2.9 6“”.9 7.10 8 2021 GDP 42%11 9 40%.11 10 37%.12 11 58%.12 12 37%.12 13 2020 59%21%.13 14.13 15.14 16 2022 GDP5700 GDP51.8.15 17 2022 94.8%.15 18 2020 GDP 52.4%.15 19.16 20 2022 GDP3437 GDP49.17 21 2022 97.7%.17 22 2020 GDP 30.7%.17 23“”.18 24 2022 GDP10207 GDP32.7.18 25 2022 92%.18 26 2022 GDP 44.2%.19 27“”.19 28 2022 GDP7911 GDP23.20 29 2022 93.4%.20 30 2020 GDP 16.4%.21 31“3+N”.21 32 2022 GDP2062 GDP10.22 33 2022 84.9%.22 2009 1210 5 34 2022 GDP 15.8%.22 35.23 36 2022 GDP1000 GDP18.23 37 2022 86.8%.23 38 2020 GDP 19.5%.24 39“”.24 40 2022 GDP2456 8%.25 41 2022 65.2%.25 42 2022 61.5%.25 43 2022 94.7%.25 44“433”.26 45 2022 GDP2073 GDP15.6.27 46 2022 71.8%.27 47 2020 GDP 25.3%.27 48“”.28 49 2022 GDP1341 GDP5.9.28 50 2022 34.0%.28 51 2022 GDP 30%.29 52 2022.29 53 2022 86%.29 54.30 55 2022 GDP1253 GDP6.8.30 56 2022 37.2%.30 57 GDP 20%.31 58 16%12%.31 59“”.31 60 2022 GDP1092 GDP6.0.32 61 2022 34.8%.32 62 2022 GDP 25%.32 63 2022 41%.32 64.33 65 2022 GDP861 GDP6.6.33 66 2022 57.3%.33 67 2022 34%.34 2009 1210 6 68 2019 39.5%.34 69“”.34 70.36 71.37 72 36 72%.37 2009 1210 7 2022 6 GDP 75.4%GDP GDP GDP 2018 55%2022 50%4 GDP 75.4%GDP 2022 GDP 41611 6 30317 73%GDP 22%3.4%1 6 2022 GDP 2022 GDP 50 2 2022 GDP 2456 3 4 2022 GDP 500 1 2022 GDP GDP Wind 1 2022 85%2 2022 27%-65%65%0102030405060020004000600080001000012000海淀区朝阳区西城区东城区丰台区石景山区经开区顺义区昌平区通州区大兴区房山区门头沟区怀柔区平谷区密云区延庆区2022 GDP 2022 GDP 2009 1210 8 2 2022 2018 55%2022 50%1 2022 2184 1095 50%42%8%2 2016 2035 5 2018-2022 96 66 2018 55%2022 50%3 2018-2022 21 13 3 2022 50%4 Wind Wind 1 2022 4.12 3.69/2 2022 7.4 10 4.7 6.2 4.1 4.8 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%东城区西城区朝阳区海淀区石景山区丰台区门头沟区顺义区昌平区大兴区通州区房山区经开区延庆区平谷区密云区怀柔区 050100150200250300350400朝阳区海淀区丰台区西城区东城区石景山区昌平区通州区大兴区顺义区房山区门头沟区经开区密云区平谷区怀柔区延庆区2022-40-30-20-100102030朝阳区海淀区丰台区西城区东城区石景山区昌平区通州区大兴区顺义区房山区门头沟区经开区密云区平谷区怀柔区延庆区2018-2022 2009 1210 9 5 2 2022 6 1 0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.00西城区海淀区东城区石景山区朝阳区丰台区门头沟区昌平区大兴区通州区房山区顺义区怀柔区平谷区密云区延庆区2022 2009 1210 10 2 7 29 8 29 25 1 2009 1210 11 1 GDP 2021 GDP 42%2 GDP 14%2021 3930 3744 3433 13%2021 7000 27%8 2021 GDP 42%9 40%Wind Wind 1 2021 2872 37%15%2 2021 3816 58%971 15%3 2021 1183 629 37%20%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%010002000300040005000600070008000金融业信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业工业科学研究和技术服务业房地产业租赁与商务服务业2021 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%010002000300040005000600070008000电力、热力生产和供应业医药制造业计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业汽车制造业专用设备制造业电气机械和器材制造业石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业2021 2009 1210 12 10 37%11 58%Wind Wind 12 37%Wind 59%21%2020 2882 59%21%2023 500 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0500100015002000250030003500西城区朝阳区海淀区东城区顺义区丰台区石景山区通州区2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050010001500200025003000350040004500海淀区朝阳区东城区石景山区西城区丰台区昌平区顺义区2021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0200400600800100012001400海淀区朝阳区东城区西城区丰台区昌平区石景山区顺义区2021 2009 1210 13 13 2020 59%21%2020 1314 1 2020 531 2 2020 200 3 2020 150 14 1 2020 4139 2020 2125 51%2021 2 2020 594 553 0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.01600.01800.0海淀区 经开区 昌平区 顺义区 朝阳区 大兴区 丰台区 通州区 西城区2020 0.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0经开区 大兴区 昌平区 通州区 顺义区 朝阳区 海淀区 密云区 怀柔区2020 2009 1210 14 15 0.0500.01000.01500.02000.02500.0经开区 顺义区 昌平区 怀柔区 大兴区 通州区 密云区 平谷区 房山区2020 2009 1210 15 1 GDP GDP 52%2022 GDP 1 2022 GDP 5700 GDP51.8 2018-2022 GDP 7.7%GDP 5.9%2 2022 94.8%5.2%16 2022 GDP5700 GDP51.8 17 2022 94.8%Wind 2022 2020 GDP 52.4%2020 2654 GDP 52.4%GDP 5%20-30%10%18 2020 GDP 52.4%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.001000200030004000500060002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,94.8%,5.2%,0.0%2022 0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%050010001500200025003000金融业 科技服务业 商务服务业 信息服务业2020 2009 1210 16 1 2022 1900 175 16 500 132.7 2 19 2 GDP GDP 30%2022 GDP 2018-2022 GDP 9.1%1 2022 GDP 3437 GDP48.8 2018-2022 GDP 9.1%GDP 5.9%2 2022 97.7%2.3%2009 1210 17 20 2022 GDP3437 GDP49 21 2022 97.7%Wind 2022 2020 GDP 30.7%2020 907 GDP 30.7%GDP 13.6%8.4%1 2022 1030 2+3 22 2020 GDP 30.7%1 5 5 CBD 2 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.0050010001500200025003000350040002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,97.7%,2.3%,0.0%2022 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%01002003004005006007008009001000金融业 信息服务业 文化及相关产业2020 2009 1210 18 23 3 GDP 44%2022 GDP 4 1 2022 GDP 10207 GDP51.8 2018-2022 GDP 12%2 2022 92%7.95%24 2022 GDP10207 GDP32.7 25 2022 92%2009 1210 19 Wind 2022 GDP 44%GDP 67%2022 4515 GDP 44%GDP 11%26 2022 GDP 44.2%2022 1 2 3 IT 27 0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.00200040006000800010000120002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,92.03%,7.95%,0.02%2022 0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%0500100015002000250030003500400045005000信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业 科学研究和技术服务业 金融业2022 2009 1210 20 2017-2035 4 GDP CBD 2022 GDP 4 GDP 1 2022 GDP 7911 GDP23 2018-2022 GDP 6.7%GDP 5.9%2 2022 93.4%6.6%28 2022 GDP7911 GDP23 29 2022 93.4%Wind 2022 2020 0.05.010.015.020.025.00100020003000400050006000700080002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,93.4%,6.6%,0.0%2022 2009 1210 21 GDP 16.4%1 2020 1300 GDP 16.4%GDP 11.5%11.1%8.5%30 2020 GDP 16.4%2020 1 2023 8 1 1/3 110 50%2 58 IT 31 3+N 5 0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%0200400600800100012001400金融业 商务服务业 信息服务业 科技服务业2020 2009 1210 22 GDP GDP 6 2018-2022 GDP 7.4%1 2022 GDP 2062 GDP10.2 2018-2022 GDP 7.4%2 2022 84.9%15.1%6 32 2022 GDP2062 GDP10 33 2022 84.9%Wind 2022 2022 GDP 16%2022 326.2 GDP 16%GDP 15%10%GDP 19%34 2022 GDP 15.8%2022 1 2 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.0050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,84.91%,15.05%,0.04%2022 0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%0501001502002503003502022 2009 1210 23 35 6 GDP 20%2022 GDP 1 2022 GDP 1000 GDP17.8 2018-2022 GDP 7.5%GDP 5.9%2 2022 86.8%13.2%36 2022 GDP1000 GDP18 37 2022 86.8%Wind 2022 GDP 50%1 2022 303 GDP 30.3%2 2022 196 GDP 19.5%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.00200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,86.80%,13.20%,0.00%2022 2009 1210 24 38 2020 GDP 19.5%2022 1 2 39 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%050100150200250300350信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业 金融业 科学研究和技术服务业2022 2009 1210 25 1 GDP 95%2022 65.2%GDP 8.2%1 2022 GDP 2456 8%2021 GDP 2022 2018-2022 GDP 8.2%GDP 5.9%2 2022 65.2%40 2022 GDP2456 8%41 2022 65.2%2021 2022 2022 2022 GDP 61.5%94.7%2022 GDP 61.5%94.7%1 2 60 5G 6.7 5G 3 50 285 1/3 42 2022 61.5%43 2022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0500100015002000250030002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP%,65.2%,34.8%2022 2009 1210 26 94.7%2022 2022 433 1 4 2 3 3 3 44 433 2 GDP 2022 GDP 1 2022 GDP 2073 2018-2022 GDP 2.7%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%02004006008001000120014001600工业批发和零售业信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业科学研究和技术服务业建筑业2022()%,41.9%,24.2%,12.3%,16.3%,5.3%2022 2009 1210 27 GDP 5.9%2 2022 27.4%71.8%45 2022 GDP2073 GDP15.6 46 2022 71.8%Wind 2022 2020 GDP 25.3%GDP 22.7%1 2020 473.4 GDP 25.3%425.5 GDP 22.7%2 4 9 150 2022 29 560 20 47 2020 GDP 25.3%2022 1 0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.0050010001500200025002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,71.8%,27.4%,0.8%2022 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%050100150200250300350400450500工业 交通运输、仓储和邮政业 金融业 建筑业2020 2009 1210 28 2-3 48 3 2018-2022 GDP 10.4%34%1 2022 GDP 1341 227 GDP 2018-2022 GDP 10.4%2 2022 65.5%34.0%49 2022 GDP1341 GDP5.9 50 2022 34.0%Wind 2022 2022 86%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.000.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.01600.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,65.5%,34.0%,0.5%2022年昌平 区三次 产业结 构 2009 1210 29 1 2022&402 GDP 30%2 2022 1319.7 671.7 50%2022 1140 86%51 2022 GDP 30%2022 52 2022 53 2022 86%2022 1 2-3 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%050100150200250300350400450工业 房地产业 科学研究&技术服务业 教育 金融业2022()(%),21.1%,15.8%,13.9%,49.1%2022年昌平 区工业 总产值 构成,86.4%,13.6%2022年昌平 区工业 总产值 构成 2009 1210 30 54 4 GDP 20%2018-2022 GDP 10.8%37%1 2022 GDP 1253 GDP6.8 2018-2022 GDP 10.8%2 37.2%55 2022 GDP1253 GDP6.8 56 2022 37.2%Wind 2022 GDP 20%38%1 2022 251 GDP 20%217 GDP 17%2 2022 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.002004006008001000120014002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,61.7%,37.2%,1.1%2022 2009 1210 31 95 73 52 16%12%10%2023 5 漷 2023 9 57 GDP 20%58 16%12%2022 2022 1 155 2 59 5 0%5%10%15%20%25%050100150200250300建筑业 工业 金融业2022 0%4%8%12%16%20%020406080100医药制造业汽车制造业专用设备制造业电气机械和器材制造业 2009 1210 32 GDP 34.8%1 2022 GDP 1092 GDP6 2018-2022 GDP 11.7%GDP 5.9%2021 GDP 2022 2 2022 34.8%63.8%60 2022 GDP1092 GDP6.0 61 2022 34.8%Wind 2022 2022 61%1 2022 290 GDP 26.6%2 418 202 41%20%62 2022 GDP 25%63 2022 41%2022 2022 1 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.00.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.01600.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,63.8%,34.8%,1.4%2022 年大 兴 区三 次 产业 结 构0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%050100150200250300350工业房地产业金融业建筑业批发和零售业2022()(%),41.1%,19.9%,4.8%,2.8%,31.5%2022年大兴 区工业 总产值 构成 2009 1210 33 2 3 4 64 6 2022 41%GDP 3.1%1 2022 GDP 861 GDP6.6 2018-2022 GDP 3.1%GDP 5.9%2 2022 41%65 2022 GDP861 GDP6.6 66 2022 57.3%2009 1210 34 Wind 2022 2020 GDP 30.2%1 2022 GDP 34%2 2019 360 39.5%67 2022 34%68 2019 39.5%2022 1 2 69 0.02.04.06.08.010.001002003004005006007008009001,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022GDP GDP,57.3%,41.4%,1.3%2022 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%050100150200250300350工业房地产业建筑业金融业批发和零售业2022,39.5%,60.5%2019 2009 1210 35 2009 1210 36 1-2 4 CBD 1 1/3 110 50%3 LIVE 200 70 1 LIVE 2 CBD 2009 1210 37 71 1 36 26 72%11 2 36 69 60 30 33 72 36 72%/161 34 42 124%47 13 16 123%52 UnitOne 30 36 120%2009 1210 38 50 20 24 120%173 MALL 47 55 117%36 25 29 116%119 3.3 53 61 115%83 27 31 115%25 24 27 113%254 52 58 112%164 MALL 35 39 111%72 18 20 111%80 33 36 109%80 MALL 56 60 107%235 82 85 104%107 IDMALL SPACE3 60 62 103%10 13 13 100%2009 1210 39 101 40 39 98%74 SOGO 67 65 97%56 SOLANA 26 25 96%241 life 53 49 92%127 63 58 92%107 LIVE 35 32 91%135 apm In88 116 106 91%126 118 104 88%281 76 64 84%-113+44 36 82%30 Mall 30 24 80%194 39 31 79%258 MALL 72 57 79%881 MALL B.P.maxxCity 279 219 78%2009 1210 40 99 CBD 62 48 77%92 75 54 72%CBD 377 SKP SKP-S in01 182 127 70%82 34 23 68%93 53 25 47%36 2009 1210 41 2009 1210 42 4 2022 2 2022 2023 2009 1210 43 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 44 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522